New England Patriots
2019 Record: (12-4) 1st
AFC East
2019 Season Recap:
Offense
Points: 262.2 (7th)
Yards: 354.0 (15th)
Pass Yards: 247.6 (8th)
Rush Yards: 106.4 (18th)
Defense
Points: 14.1 (1st)
Yards: 275.9 (1st)
Pass Yards: 180.4 (2nd)
Rush Yards: 95.5 (6th)
Heading back to review the 2019 edition of the New England
Patriots did bring with it a very similar state of affairs. Attempting to
continue down the path of complete domination over the AFC East, this Patriots
club saw sidesteps offensively we haven’t witnessed in many years.
With Rob Gronkowski announcing his retirement from football in the
off-season, Coach Belichick attempted to re-stack his receiver room while hoping
he could get by with what he had on his roster. Many transactions occurred over
the year which saw the removal of troubled player Josh Gordon and the addition
of a circus which was Antonio Brown. Even as Brown made an instant impact in
his debut, he only managed to suit up for one contest amidst more off field issues.
With all the turmoil which surrounded this offense in 2019, it was
the defense which carried this club on a weekly basis. This unit was by far the
best in the business creating turnovers while maintaining the top rankings
verse the entire league. 47 sacks and 25 interceptions while being the best in
total points and total yards allowed was the result from a fabulous showing.
Clearly this side of the ball covered up many inadequacies carried from the
offense.
Regardless of the back step and not being that polished offensive
group we’ve come to know for so long, the Patriots won the division once again
and attempted to make noise in the postseason. Having to play on wildcard
weekend for the first time in many years, New England had the opportunity to
make another run. However, the running prowess of the Titans Derrick Henry was
far too swift which provided an early exist eliminating them from the playoffs.
With Patriot fans not overly accustomed to losing, the afterthought became -
what would this team look like potentially without Tom Brady (free agent). An
off-season like no other is upon them and will be very interesting to say the
least.
2020 Offseason
WorkBook:
The Offense
Jumping right in to the major question
this team will have this off-season – what is the future of Tom Brady in New
England? With many suggestions early on that Brady has likely played his last
snap in the only place he’s called home in the NFL, more credible reports have
surfaced to believe this will indeed be the case. Brady is obviously planning
his life after football and that may mean moving to places that could support
his future endeavors. So if this is the last we hear of Brady with the Patriots
– where does this team go in terms of the most important position?
Clearly at this point of the off-season,
speculation is riding high with little answers to be seen until the league year
opens. Andy Dalton and Marcus Mariota have been rumored to be potential
replacements if a new deal can’t be achieved with Brady. Finding another signal
caller via the draft isn’t out of the question either, but one thing we can say
for sure – it should be a very different offense in 2020 without the future
hall of famer. All eyes will be on this situation come March 18th.
When it comes to the running backs this
team employs, a solid room does fill the landscape even though lesser
productivity was seen from 2019. Sony Michel lost nearly a full yard per carry
on his average from his rookie season and James White was used far less from
his breakout 2018 campaign. With that, if a changing of the guard does occur at
the quarterback position, it’s hard not to believe more reliance will be handed
out to this group to move the chains. Perhaps installing more plays to last
years rookie Damien Harris will also come to pass to form a one-two punch with
Michel? Either way, this room still holds a good level of talent and could be
the focal point for this club in 2020.
When we dive into this receiver room and
what they currently have on the roster, it’s difficult to be optimistic at this
point for great production. Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu and N’Keal Harry are
the key cogs at this point but adding more should be on the menu. While Edelman
is the most consistent of the trio, many believe that Harry could take a giant
leap in 2020 after he witnessed what the NFL truly is. Having dealt with his
share of injures, missed time contributed to a lackluster rookie campaign. With
full disclosure, we do have faith in Harry and his abilities and he should be
very productive in his second season.
As for the tight end position, losing
Gronkowski was obviously felt like shock-waves and could never find an adequate
replacement. In terms of glaring needs, this is a massive hole on this offense
that should be rectified this off-season.
No matter which direction we feel this
offense will go, realizing the path forward at the quarterback position is
clearly the largest obstacle. Once we see who will be the starting pivot for
the team, everything will make much more sense and a true evaluation can be
had.
The Defense
Diving right into what was the strength
of this club, the defense was an absolute beast making plays week-after-week.
Turnovers and defensive touchdowns became the fabric of this unit and literally
were impossible to beat. And while great success was seen throughout most of
the 2019 season, one could suggest a slight drop off in that great play was
realized once heavier competition was afoot.
Starting with the defensive line, this
group doesn’t appear to be overly dominating but follow the system to a tee.
Having very stout line backers and a secondary which locks down opposing wide
receivers, coverage sacks did occur from this group. While they did more than
enough for most to take notice, we wouldn’t be shocked to witness an upgrade
forthcoming via the draft or free agency. With that said, Chase Winovich made a
giant case for himself in his rookie season to see more playing time in getting
to the quarterback with good regularity.
Speaking of this line backing core which
was able to produce a great deal – Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy and Don’t’a
Hightower were legit difference makers for this defense. Covering the field while
adding rushing fortitude - these three occupy the first, second and fifth spots
for leading tacklers on this defense. Adding to that, these three accounted for
19 of the teams 47 sacks and played a massive role in the Bill Belichick
scheme. Some turnover is expected here as well as Collins and Van Noy are both
free agents and could be looking to cash in on new deals.
In terms of this secondary – it all
begins and ends with the fabulous play of Stephon Gilmore. This shut down
corner witnessed his best season on record securing a healthy six interceptions
while matching a career high in pass breakups with 20. Having a true island
corner allowed others on this defensive back-end more freedom to take chances
and make more plays. With Jason McCourty anchoring the opposite side and his
Brother (Devin McCourty) playing deep, ranking second in pass yards allowed was
the outcome. Not to forget the consistent reliable play of Patrick Chung –
there were little negatives to find in their performance this past season.
While we could witness some changeover
to this group based on expiring contracts – Coach Belichick is a master in
finding new talent to ease the transitional pain and keep this unit strong
moving forward.
Team Free Agents / Team Salary Cap
With the Tom Brady situation clouding
all other news for this team, the Patriots hold a healthy amount of cap space
with 43.9 million in free funds. Having a slender 19 team free agents to
contend with, it’s not out of the question to see New England throw money at
players they covet to bring back to the fold.
Obviously, the Brady contract situation
will take precedent, he has never been one to request mammoth dollars to keep
the roster loaded with talent. While we still believe a return to the Patriots might
occur – hovering around similar numbers (25-30 million) in compensation should
again be witnessed. Outside of Brady like we mentioned above, Collins, Van Noy,
Devin McCourty are also looking for new contracts which could preclude New
England from keeping everyone. Phillip Dorsett and Matthew Slater are two other
players that should entertain a return but aren’t a given to be back.
For the purpose of this evaluation,
finding more money on the books in hopes to garner more funds is the objective.
With that, Coach Belichick is one to rarely overpay his players and that can be
seen in how most all contracts are constructed. The only viable option to gain
additional dollars rests with removing Sanu from the roster. While this
transaction isn’t likely to occur given the lack of depth at the position – he
could save 6.5 million on the books with no money heading to the dead cap.
Outside of that, New England has priced
their players fairly well and should look to add mostly via the NFL draft over
the open market.
The NFL Draft
As we stand today, the Patriots hold
eight picks in the 2020 NFL draft with the potential to gather many more in
compensatory picks. While we won’t know what those extra selections will be at
this point, having an extra sixth and two extra seventh rounder’s with no
second round pick is where they stand toady.
It’s not out of the question to see the
Patriots select the heir apparent to Brady in this draft which does hold sound
talent at the position. But seeing how rumor is flying around the league to
suggest a veteran could be added – we still can’t rule out a passer taken later
in the draft. Perhaps we see Jordan Love or Jacob Eason pilfered off the board
to don Patriot colors? Or could we witness a scenario where New England
receives high compensatory pick replacements which could allow them to move up
and choose Justin Herbert? All options are on the table at this point and we
shouldn’t discount anything from happening.
Outside of that, offensive line could
also be seen as a need, along with line backer (depending on team free agents),
and wide receiver should be added pieces to the puzzle. Either way, an
interesting time for the Patriots is upon us where a new look could be on the
horizon.
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