NFL Week 14 Point Spread Picks

PLACE YOUR BETS!!! ADF took a rare hit to the chin in Week 13 as some spreads were crushed late. We will rebound in Week 14 as the bank roll had to cover some unfortunate losses. For the season, ADF still has very positive earned money while remaining above the .500 mark! Follow me I will get you there!  Let’s make some money. Good Luck!

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Week 13 Point Spread Record: 6-10 (.375)

Season Point Spread Record:  98-94 (.510)

NFL WEEK 14 – Predictions (Projected odds makers @ DEC.7.2017 – 12:00PM EST)

Thursday Dec.7.2017

New Orleans (Favorite) @ Atlanta

Westgate -1

Caesar’s -1

William Hill -1

Wynn -1.5

CG -1

Unibet -2.5

SportSelect -1.5

The schedule makers have blessed us with a plethora of divisional games in the final quarter of the season all over the NFL, to that we say YAY!! Thursday Night Football is gifting us a fantastic matchup on paper that more than likely shouldn’t disappoint. The Falcons are in a true must win game as they host the still hot Saints. Atlanta surprisingly houses a 3-3 home record which isn’t what they had expected playing in the confines of the Mercedes-Benz Dome. Statistically the Falcons rank in the tops in all categories to which their record doesn’t confirm that. ADF has a sneaky suspicion that OC Sarkisian will adjust the game play to force feed super-star Julio Jones rather that what we saw last week. The Saints continue to ride the talents or rookie sensation Alvin Kamara and seasoned vet Mark Ingram to the top of the division. It’s clear that Drew Brees has lost a step as many throws we are accustomed in seeing are missed with inaccuracy. With recent news that Mark Ingram is questionable for this contest, Kamara will dominate the touches from the backfield if indeed Ingram sits. This game has the ability to be a straight-up shootout between two high power offenses. A short travel for the Saints shouldn’t be enough to rattle them. NWO covers the spread @ -1 

NWO 17 ATL 20 (L) 

Sunday Dec.10.2017

Indianapolis @ Buffalo (Favorite)

Westgate N/A

Caesar’s N/A

William Hill N/A

Wynn -2.5

CG N/A

Unibet N/A

SportSelect N/A

With only one active spread released, the Bills are favored by a slim margin on Sunday. The biggest obstacle for the favored Bills is the potential absence of starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Many reports suggest he is a true game time decision, but realistically, Tyrod will likely find himself inactive for this contest. With Nate Peterman potentially getting the nod, Buffalo will have to rely on the ground game and superb defensive play to get past the Colts in this one. The Colts will travel to snowy Buffalo to battle a Bills team still in the thick of the playoff race attempting to end their hopes playing spoiler. The Colts have competed in almost every game this season unable to finish teams off with mistakes and penalties. Playing in New Era Field is a difficult task for any squad as the home town faithful will be in full force. If Tyrod somehow finds the field the offense will obviously get a massive boost, but the preparation from Peterman should be better than his last contest. 

BUF covers the spread @ -2.5 IND 7 BUF 13 (W) 

Minnesota (Favorite) @ Carolina

Westgate -2.5

Caesar’s -2.5

William Hill -2.5

Wynn -3

CG -2.5

Unibet -2.5

SportSelect -2.5

This Vikings team is a very difficult one to evaluate as the doubt always creeps in as to if Case Keenum can sustain his level of play. Defensively, Minnesota is a powerhouse and continues to improve on a week to week basis. Even with the questions on Keenum, we can’t argue that he does everything right in this offense to keep it together and moving in the right direction. The sidebar from last week - the incredible play of Xavier Rhodes absolutely shutting down Julio Jones, while the defensive line gave Matt Ryan zero time to go through his progressions. The Panthers are also in a must win game to keep pace with the Saints and stay ahead of the Falcons. Defensively the Panthers have loosened up allowing teams to drive the field and begin to score points, this will have to change if they want to be victorious on Sunday. Rumor has it that Cam Newton is dealing with a thumb injury inhibiting his ability to throw the ball consistently. He should be under direst for most of the game and we are very curious to see if the Vikings can continue to roll. MIN covers the spread @ -2.5 MIN 24 CAR 31 (L)     

Chicago @ Cincinnati (Favorite)

Westgate -6.5

Caesar’s -6

William Hill -6

Wynn -6

CG -6

Unibet -6.5

SportSelect -5.5

The Bengals are coming off a ferocious contest against the Steelers on Monday Night Football where we saw a mass amount of monster hits. Cincinnati basically showed the NFL world why they aren’t a contender as the once again they gave up a big lead and let the Steelers stay alive and come back to win. At 5-7 their playoff hopes are all but lost and should still be playing for pride, as well as Coach Marvin Lewis’ job. Coming into this one, the Bears have allowed six of their nine losses to cover six points of more. Making the travel to Cincinnati this should be a tough environment for young rookie Mitchell Trubisky and company. This game on paper doesn’t mean a whole lot and the Bengals should be able to take advantage of the young Bears passer. CIN covers the spread @ -6 
CHI 33 CIN 7 (L)  

Green Bay (Favorite) @ Cleveland

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -3

William Hill -3.5

Wynn -3

CG -3

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -3.5

Green Bay has definitely become very difficult to evaluate as a team since Brett Hundley took over for the injured Aaron Rodgers. With a record of 6-6 the Packers are still more than alive in the playoff race, and hoping to get their star quarterback back on the field in week 15. The Packers have become very predicable offensively as they employ a full blown run attack to try and take pressure off the pass game. Jamaal Williams should again be the lead dog with support from Aaron Jones. So long as Hundley can play a decent game the Packers should walk into the dawg pound and steal a win. The Browns have been playing out the season basically from the start. Great excitement from last week evolved the return of Josh Gordon to the Browns offense to which he did make a sizable impact. This week the game plan will be to force feed Gordon in hopes he can make big plays lifting them to their first victory of the season. The Packers should give the Browns all they can handle as they play for the post season.

GB covers the spread @ -3 GB 27 CLE 21 (W)

San Francisco @ Houston (Favorite)

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -2.5

William Hill -3

Wynn -2.5

CG -2.5

Unibet -2.5

SportSelect -2.5

Very impressive isn’t the words to use for Jimmy Garoppolo but still showed signs of great ability within Shanahan’s system. The 49ers really have nothing to play for other than the evaluation of the young quarterback to see if indeed he can fit the bill. The Texans at 4-8 are another team playing for the offseason as they attempt to give their home fans a few more weeks of bliss as the season is in the home stretch. Injuries and lack-luster play continue to be the biggest obstacle for Houston in 2017. Last week they had an opportunity to defeat the Titans and let it slip right out of their hands. Normally with two bad or underachieving teams the rule of thumb is to stick with the home side. Adding to that point, San Fran has heavy travel miles to deal with jumping over a few time zones.

HOU covers the spread @ -3 SF 26 HOU 16 (L)  

Oakland @ Kansas City (Favorite)

Westgate -4

Caesar’s -4

William Hill -4

Wynn -4

CG -3.5

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -3.5

One of the biggest games of the week with immense playoff implications is the Raiders and the Chiefs. What has happened to the once mighty squad in red as their season hangs in the balance sitting tied atop the AFC West with both the Chargers and the Raiders. Defensively the Chiefs are a complete nightmare and haven’t been able to stop anyone during their slide. Last week we witnessed a resurgence of the offense as Alex Smith threw four touchdowns still in defeat. With Coach Reid giving up play calling duties this Chiefs team got back to basics and threw the ball all over the field, something that should again happen this week. The Raiders aren’t much of a dominating team this year and should count themselves lucky to be in the position they are in. Much like the Chiefs they are a mess on defense and struggle to stop teams from driving the field. On a positive note, Oakland gets Crabtree back from suspension and rumor has it Cooper has a great chance to play. The last time these two teams met the Raiders came back to win on the strength of penalty flags. As difficult as it is for any team to walk into Arrowhead, this game could be very close. The Raiders has travel miles getting to Kansas City but should compete in this contest. Even if the Chiefs win it should be by 3.

KC doesn’t cover the spread @ -4 OAK 15 KC 26 (L)

Detroit (Favorite) @ Tampa Bay

Westgate N/A

Caesar’s N/A

William Hill N/A

Wynn -2.5

CG N/A

Unibet N/A

SportSelect N/A

With only one odds marker providing a spread for this contest, the Detroit Lions find themselves a field goal favorite traveling to Tampa. The Bucs looked a lot better as Jameis Winston came back from injury almost leading his team to victory falling just short in overtime in Green Bay. The Bucs season is all but a wrap and are playing out the string to conclude a disastrous 2017 campaign. Defensively Tampa Bay has underachieved as the players they employ are far better than the record indicates. Vegas odds makers hesitated to push a spread as no real word on the health of Matthew Stafford has been released on his injured hand. Coach Caldwell has been very coy on Matthew as he was limited in practice for the majority of the week. Traveling all the way to Florida could be a massive issue for the Lions as fatigue could be a factor. Aside from Stafford the biggest concern for the Lions is the lack of a run game to support the passing attack. Still very much alive in the playoff race, the Lions will have to bring their A-game to get past Tampa Bay. This game should be more competitive than some may think. Having a terrible contest and getting blown out in Baltimore is pushing ADF to take the home team. Never the less, the Lions are the better team and will come out in this one. DET covers the spread @-2.5 DET 24 TB 21 (W)   

Dallas (Favorite) @ NY Giants

Westgate -4

Caesar’s -4

William Hill -4.5

Wynn -4.5

CG -4.5

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -4.5

The debacle that is the NY Giants season -at least they righted one ship in firing Coach McAdoo. Eli Manning will once again be where he belongs under center as the starting quarterback for the big blue. Their season has been a wrap and the only thing to play for on Sunday is the role of spoiler. The Cowboys travel to New York with their playoff hopes still alive in a must win contest at MetLife Stadium. Since the Zeke Elliott suspension Dallas has found it very difficult to move the ball consistently. That being said, the Cowboys found some much needed assistance in the run game as Alfred Morris was able to run free last Thursday Night. Dak Prescott has been underwhelming these last few weeks and will have to prove his play this week against an inferior squad.  DAL covers the spread @ -4 DAL 30 NYG 10 (W)

Tennessee (Favorite) @ Arizona

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -3

William Hill -3

Wynn -3

CG -3

Unibet -2.5

SportSelect -2.5

The Titans are one of those teams that have become extremely confusing as to what they really are. They have become a bend but don’t break defensive unit holding their opponents close so their 22^nd ranked offense can stay in the game. Last week was a prime example holding an average Texans team at bay while they provided the kill shot late in the game with a monster run from Derek Henry to close it out. ADF struggles to get on board with the Titans this season as travel usually hinders their play. They are a good team on the rise, but we still view them as pretenders. The Cardinals seem to know how to play spoiler this season on the strength of the defense and the force feeding to the great Larry Fitzgerald. The game plan is very simple for the Cards, try and run – throw to Larry. Playing at home always gives Arizona the advantage and should in this one as well. Passing over a few time zones Tennessee will prove they are in fact pretenders. TEN doesn’t cover the spread @ -3 TEN 7 ARZ 12 (W) 

NY Jets (Favorite) @ Denver

Westgate -1

Caesar’s -1

William Hill -1

Wynn -1

CG -1

Unibet +1.5

SportSelect -0.5

The NY Jets have become one of these teams that are better than how they appear on paper. Coach Bowles has this team flying together bought into a system that has proven to compete on a weekly basis. Playing the role of spoiler they were able to hold off the re-born powerful offense of the Chiefs last week to get the win. This week they travel to Denver to face the Broncos who have had a total collapse this season. Defensively the Broncos still hose the 5^th best unit in the NFL even though it hasn’t shown of late. Offensively they can’t seem to get out of their own way and generate anything to write home about. As bad as the Broncos have been, including last week against the Dolphins, playing at home still gives them an advantage. I’ll gamble on this one and take the Jets in the Mile High.

NYJ cover the spread @ -1 NYJ 0 DEN 23 (L)

Washington @ LA Chargers (Favorite)

Westgate -6

Caesar’s -5.5

William Hill -6

Wynn -6.5

CG -6

Unibet -5.5

SportSelect -6.5

One of the hottest teams in the NFL are the LA Chargers. Coach Lynn has this team firing on all cylinders both offensively and defensively, making them a force to be reckoned with. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have been superb teaming up and proving intense pressure on opposing quarterbacks allowing the secondary to make plays. On the other side - Philip Rivers has found the fountain of youth playing great football finding his main man Keenan Allen all over the field. This is a must win situation for the Chargers and have the huge benefit of playing at home. The Redskins had really high hopes this season all for not on the backs of injuries to a fair portion of this roster. The lack of chemistry throughout the season didn’t help the cause as well. Washington still has a team that should be able to compete in this contest even though they have cross country travel miles and a hopeless record for the postseason. The Redskins team that played the Cowboys last week didn’t fully encapsulate what they’re capable of. The Chargers are good enough to win this game but as they proved last week, a full touchdown spread could be too much. LAC doesn’t cover the spread @-6  WAS 13 LAC 30 (L) 

Seattle @ Jacksonville (Favorite)

Westgate -2.5

Caesar’s -2.5

William Hill -2.5

Wynn -3

CG -2.5

Unibet -2.5

SportSelect -2.5

The Seattle Seahawks on the back of Russell Wilson have been playing extremely well and are on full confidence mode going into Jacksonville. Even more impressive than Wilson’s play has been the adjustment of the defense that has lost Sherman & Chancellor. The Jaguars are proving they are a force on both sides of the ball and watched Blake Bortles play extremely efficient last week. The Jags defense is an elite unit that will give Wilson and company all they can handle. Leonard Fournette should again see eight man boxes and find it difficult to find room to run. The Seahawks biggest hurdle in this contest will be the travel miles they will endure. It’s very clear they’re a better home team then road team, but experience should carry them in this one. Jimmy Graham should have a monster role as Baldwin will be on lock down going up against Ramsey. Jacksonville isn’t ready for the likes of Wilson and what the Hawks can still do. JAX doesn’t cover the spread @ -2.5 
SEA 24 JAX 30 (L)

Philadelphia @ LA Rams (Favorite)

Westgate -2

Caesar’s -2

William Hill -2

Wynn -2

CG -2

Unibet -1.5

SportSelect -1.5

The Eagles dropped the ball last week in Seattle finally facing a real challenge that they weren’t able to overcome. Everything about last week’s game was unfamiliar as it seemed the Eagles brass outcoached themselves and played very conservative. A loss like that could define their season and I fully expect the Eagles to adjust. The LA Rams are a solid bunch that play very well on both sides of the ball. Having the ability to drive the field and score whenever they want allows the defense to take more chances and make plays. The interesting story line to this game will be Goff vs Wentz as they were the top two choices in the 2016 NFL draft. Both teams are built very well and the experience factor of a game of this magnitude is an unknown thing to both squads. This should be the game of the week in the afternoon slate. Cross country travel will definitely play a role for the visiting Eagles. LAR covers the spread @ -2 PHI 43 LAR 35 (L)   

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (Favorite)

Westgate -5

Caesar’s -5

William Hill -5.5

Wynn -5.5

CG -5.5

Unibet -4-5

SportSelect -5.5

Yet another prime time matchup for the Steelers as they host the Ravens in another AFC North showdown. Pittsburgh continues to roll even in tight games as they seemingly find a way to play down to the competition. Pittsburgh is an elite team that knows what it takes to win games regardless of how they start. Offensively they have so many weapons and should continue to utilize them in perfect game plans exploiting the opposition. Baltimore is in control of their own destiny as they have won very important games down the stretch positioning themselves favorable to grab a wildcard spot. Fundamentally the Ravens aren’t a team to fear. Joe Flacco is what he is and should provide some offensive touch but the game plan will indeed rely heavily on the run game. The Ravens defense is very similar to the Steelers as they are both hard nose units looking to inflict pain. Still a home date, in Pittsburgh, for a massive divisional match; the Steelers should win but again it will be close.

PIT doesn’t cover the spread @ -5.5 BAL 38 PIT 39 (W)

Monday Dec.11.2017

New England (Favorite) @ Miami

Westgate -11.5

Caesar’s -11

William Hill -11.5

Wynn -11

CG -11

Unibet -11.5

SportSelect -11.5

Every week the Patriots get monster spreads, and every week ADF tries to find holes in that spread. This week the Pats travel to Miami to put the Dolphins out of their misery and reconfirm the season is lost for Coach Gase and company. These two teams faced each other a couple weeks ago where New England beat Miami 35-17, it was no contest. The same will occur this week as Brady will enjoy some sun in south Florida and pick apart the Dolphins defense. Jay Cutler will attempt to execute the game plan set up for his offense, but again will be brought back down to earth realizing beating the Broncos last week is an anomaly not the standard. The Fins should be able to produce some offense but it won’t be near enough as the Patriots will continue to roll. NE covers the spread @ -11.5 
NE 20 MIA 27 (L)

Week 14 Record: 6-10 (.375)

  

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