It’s never too early to project where the top fantasy
performers should reside for upcoming fantasy football drafts. ADF is providing
our insight to where current players should be ranked as of today for re-draft
leagues. This listing will of course be modified as the offseason continues to
move forward.
Projections are based upon 2018 PPR formats.
TOP 30 Fantasy Running Backs:
Todd Gurley | LAR | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 26.6 | Rank 1
Much
like previous years, our early rankings still support the Rams Todd Gurley as
fantasy football’s top choice for running backs.
While
some may have fallen off the wagon with how Gurley finished the 2018 campaign (which
created ample levels of frustration for his owners), we are fully prepared to
jump back aboard the train. Clearly, Gurley was dealing with an injury which
began during the Monday Night shootout against the Kansas City Chiefs, and he
never regained full health.
Moving
forward to 2019, the only question mark for Gurley is that arthritic knee
condition. Outside of that, the Rams offense is again poised to have another
tremendous season with virtually all pieces still in place. Adding to that,
with Gurley’s astonishing 26.6 fantasy points per contest, it’s our contention
that had he played a full 16 game slate, reaching 420 fantasy points was
definitely in reach.
While
we’ll be watching Gurley’s recovery closely during the offseason, at this
point, he is the top back in fantasy given the Rams offensive pedigree.
Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 21.9 | Rank 2
As
we’ve seen the consensus early top choice lean to the Giants Saquon Barkley,
many will disapprove this projection to place the Cowboys Zeke Elliott in the
number two spot.
While
the offseason is still rather early, and a lot can transpire when the league is
set to kick-off, our optimism for Elliott is dictated by obvious circumstances.
The Dallas Cowboys have made a great deal of improvements to this offense in
hopes that it should lift the play of Dak Prescott, which will ultimately raise
the bar for Elliott. With Amari Cooper stretching the field, Randall Cobb and
Jason Witten holding down the middle, and second year pro Michael Gallup
rounding out the group - Elliott is again poised to see few stacked boxes.
Much
like any high potential offense, we would rather surround our fantasy team with
this type of situation than any other. Elliott shall once again feast and
challenge for top spot for running backs.
Alvin Kamara | NO | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 23.6 | Rank 3
Moving
right along, holding firm with the third ranking on our list, the Saints Alvin
Kamara has a glorious opportunity to leapfrog his competition now that he is
the feature back in New Orleans.
As
we witnessed half of the Saints dynamic-duo (Mark Ingram) part ways with the
club, the prospects of Kamara elevating his game that much further isn’t out of
the question. Coach Sean Payton will provide Kamara with a heavy workload in
both the run and pass games to potentially increase that fantastic 23.6 points
per game.
As
the Saints gear up to make another run at the Super Bowl, Alvin Kamara will be
a true vocal point of this offense providing giant returns in the process.
Saquon Barkley | NYG | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 24.1 | Rank 4
At last, we have no choice but to finally place the
young super talent Saquon Barkley in the fourth spot of our early re-draft
rankings.
While we fully understand many will be skeptical of
this placement, there is a method to our madness in why we felt this was
appropriate. To make things clear, we are great believers in the talents
Barkley possesses, and extremely understanding to the thought of selecting him
first overall in upcoming drafts. However, the situation in New York screams
dysfunction which has left us to drop his overall value.
When the Giants chose to ship super star receiver Odell
Beckham Jr to the Browns, and replace him with Golden Tate (via free agency),
it’s impossible for us to believe that Barkley won’t have to run through walls
on a weekly basis. Stacked boxes will become the normality for every defense
the Giants face, which in turn will limit the overall production. Adding to
that concern, the spotty offensive line employed will too do Barkley no
favors.
This situation for Barkley resembles that of Todd
Gurley’s issues back in 2016, where he was given little support and opposing
defenses capitalized. Unless the Giants turn out a monumental draft class to
reload with added offensive power, Barkley will be in for a very difficult
campaign.
Christian McCaffrey | CAR |
2018 Fantasy PPG: 24.1 | Rank 5
Reviewing Christian McCaffrey and the potential for
him to once again be a league leader in many statistical categories, we could
very well make the argument that he should sit above Barkley. However, given
the load that he endured a season prior, we could envision less work on the
horizon.
Without question, McCaffrey is an absolute beast on
the field and proved all his doubters wrong that he is capable of being a true
three-down back. The upside in PPR (point per reception) is literally off the
charts, as McCaffrey saw a whopping 124 targets in this Panther offense, which
should again be the case.
In 2018 McCaffrey fell just 35 yards short of reaching
that coveted 2000 total yard mark which in itself is extremely impressive.
Depending on how the offseason concludes, we would have no issue lifting
Christian McCaffrey into the fourth rank.
Melvin Gordon | LAC | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 23.0 | Rank 6
Throughout his four year NFL career, the Chargers
Melvin Gordon has been something of an enigma always leaving his fantasy owners
wanting more. There is no questioning the ability he possesses, but rather the
frustration he provides in only completing one full season in his short
career.
Before the 2018 season, our validation reigned supreme
for Gordon as we truly felt he would turn the corner to be the player we know
he can be. Unfortunately, Gordon once again found his way into the medical room
at this worst time leaving owners scrambling.
While selecting Gordon for his potential will easily
dictate these terms, his injury history may preclude us from keeping him at
number six come the draft.
David Johnson | ARZ | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 15.4 | Rank 7
Finding ourselves once again lifting a player who
witnessed a great deal of tribulation a season ago, David Johnson could be
primed for a monster bounce back year, provided the Cardinals are true to their
word.
This placement for Johnson is strictly based on the
rumor that Arizona will in fact draft Oklahoma prospect Kyler Murray. If that
NFL draft selection comes to fruition, buckle up for the resurgence of David
Johnson.
Many will forget how talented and versatile Johnson
truly is, as he is definitely capable of hitting 1000 rush and 1000 receiving
yards in a single season. Adding to the potential of securing Kyler Murray to
revamp this pass attack, hiring offensive minded up-and-comer, Kliff Kingsbury
could be the elixir needed to bring it all together. At this point this rank is
a little risky, but in our eyes, Johnson could be an enormous steal come
fantasy draft day.
James Conner | PIT | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 21.5 | Rank 8
We
still find ourselves struggling with the prospect to place the Steelers James
Conner higher than rank eight. There’s no question that Conner is very talented
and capable of making plays all over the field, but given the loss of Antonio
Brown, we do have some concerns.
With
Brown on this offense, opposing defenses had no choice but to key extra
coverage to his side opening up lanes for other receivers and to the run game.
While we feel the Steelers should be able to overcome, seeing it on the field
in true form is our intrigue.
James
Conner does possess a high level of skill that should equate to at least 16
fantasy points per game as the floor, we still want to see a little more with
this cast moving forward.
Joe Mixon | CIN | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 17.4 | Rank 9
Coming
out of college, Joe Mixon was high on our radar to become a NFL talent that
would generate buzz from his ability, and heading into this season, that hasn’t
changed one bit.
Entering
his third year in the league, Mixon has a fantastic opportunity to improve on
solid numbers from a season prior with new offensive minded coach Zac Taylor.
With the Bengals now in transition with a new offensive system installation on
the horizon, Mixon could be in line for a heavier workload.
With
the same cast returning in Dalton, Green, and Boyd - Joe Mixon should be able
to generate a career high in rush attempts to view in the range of 250-265
carriers. The prospects of Mixon to improve on his 17.4 points per game are
extremely real in 2019.
Dalvin Cook | MIN | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 13.8 | Rank 10
Rounding
out the top 10 on our early fantasy rankings, the Vikings Dalvin Cook simply
had to be placed in this position.
Some
may question the motive of placing Cook this high this early, but in our review
of what Cook was able to achieve in the last five games of 2018, it was clear
he was back to full health and ready to make a difference.
Typically
in fantasy football, a great indicator for the following season is seen in how
a player finishes the final six of that previous year. One stat which jumped
out to us in those final five contests was his fabulous 5.76 yards per carry.
If Cook is indeed back to full health with confidence riding high, there’s no
question the Vikings will feed Cook all season long. Get ready to witness a
special young player finally take shape.
LeVeon Bell | NYJ | 2018
Fantasy PPG: N/A | Rank 11
Cringing just a little when placing LeVeon Bell
outside of the top 10, truly we had no choice at this point based on the amount
of time-off, and finding his way to the Jets enigmatic offense.
While we feel Bell is still a great talent that should
lift the overall output of the Jets team, it’s extremely difficult to predict
how effective he will be. The Jets do have a lot of trouble on that offensive
line, which could limit high-end statistical achievement, hence why the
cautious placement.
New York is trying to revamp this entire operation,
but until we see it in action, Bell will hold value simply on his own
shoulders.
Nick Chubb | CLE | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 12.2 | Rank 12
Finding it extremely difficult to place the Browns
Nick Chubb ahead of James White, we had to cave in right now based on how this
Browns team is build. Staying true to our thought process that the better
offense should warrant those players a better evaluation, Chubb should be in
for a very proper workload.
The issue at hand when discussing Nick Chubb, is the
fact that troubled teammate Kareem Hunt waits for his suspension to clear to
potentially put a large dent in his overall output. The saving grace for Chubb
entering this season, is that Hunt won’t return until week 10 which could
provide his owners a great deal of productivity in that time.
Red flags for a full blown time share could occur
especially if the Browns hold a playoff spot entering week 10 of the season.
Having a backup plan will be a necessity if you select Chubb.
James White | NE | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 17.3 | Rank 13
As we’ve entered discussions of how to appropriately
evaluate the Patriots James White, at this point we truly have no choice but to
place him above his teammate Sony Michel.
White was a statistical revelation last season seeing
a whopping 123 targets in the pass game hauling in a healthy 87 receptions.
Given the Patriots offensive landscape and the limited amount of pass catchers
on the roster, there is nothing to suggest White won’t see a similar, if not
increased workload in the pass game.
Seeing a running back entertain that type of
productivity to nearly hit 18 points per game, we shall buy that all day long,
especially with a roster limited with playmakers.
Devonta Freeman | ATL | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 7.1 | Rank 14
It truly appears that the Falcons Devonta Freeman has
become the forgotten man amidst all the talent the league employs at the
running back position.
2018 was a season to forget for Freeman, as it was
filled with injuries which completely derailed his prospects. Moving ahead and
believing he is finally over his medical troubles, Freeman in this Atlanta
offense could find his way back to high statistical efficiency.
The key in this potential rejuvenation rests with new
offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, as his will elevate this offense back to a
proper degree. Freeman could find himself in a slight sleeper category as it
appears people are losing faith in him.
Leonard Fournette | JAX |
2018 Fantasy PPG: 15.1 | Rank 15
Finding ourselves torn with placing Leonard Fournette
at the 15th rank is simply due to his inability to remain healthy
and complete a full 16 game slate in his career.
With Nick Foles now the quarterback in Jacksonville,
the forecast does catch our attention to lift his outlook. There is no question
that Fournette is a talented runner that can change the course of any game, but
adding on to his injury history, Fournette doesn’t provide a great deal of
optimism in the pass game.
While we aren’t fully convinced that Nick Foles will
be the savoir to lift this Jags club, it is a sound upgrade that should move
this offense in the right direction.
Marlon Mack | IND | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 14.8 | Rank 16
Our
very first evaluation of Marlon Mack when he entered the NFL was rather
positive believing he could become a solid producer in the NFL. Now entering
his third campaign in the league, we are getting warmer in how we view his
potential.
Marlon
Mack is a sound product that is capable of generating good productivity,
especially in an offense that is geared to high-end statistical prowess. Any
running back having Andrew Luck as his quarterback will witness fewer stacked
boxes, which again will be the case for Mack this season.
Our
only concern regarding Mack is the apatite the Colts continue to have in
upgrading the position. If Mack was viewed as the clear-cut choice to lead the
team in carries, adding players wouldn’t be a thought process. With that said,
still very good value can be had for Mack in 2019.
Sony Michel | NE | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 10.7 | Rank 17
Even as we felt the need to place Sony Michel’s
teammate and running partner James White ahead of him on the ranks, it should
be noted that Michel is a top prospect on the rise as well.
We aren’t questioning his ability and talent, but
rather the workload and scheme in this offense. Michel had games of great
production but was limited to being a touchdown dependent player at times. With
White seeing the lions-share of work in the pass game, Michel found himself as
the afterthought hauling in a minuscule seven receptions on 11 targets. Simply
based on how this team operates, Michel in our eyes has lower value than White
at this point.
Jordan Howard | PHI | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 11.3 | Rank 18
Let them all sleep on Jordan Howard as we will buy his
shares with almost every opportunity given. The Philadelphia Eagles stole
Howard from the Bears as he simply didn’t fit into the system Coach Matt Nagy
runs.
It’s hard to conceive how Howard doesn’t earn more
respect around the league, as his first three seasons has been the epitome of
solid success. While Howard won’t blow you away with his production in the pass
game, he isn’t as bad in that area as some may think. In his rookie season,
Howard saw a decent 50 targets while rushing for over 1300 yards. Seeing him
fall out of favor in Chicago, it was clear that was the wrong situation for his
abilities.
Jordan Howard should find new life in Philadelphia,
which will turn out to a return of extremely sound achievements. Based on his
current ranking, we could absolutely envision lifting him up before the season
begins.
Mark Ingram | BAL | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 11.9 | Rank 19
Since entering the NFL, Mark Ingram has never fully
seen the fruits of his labor until the Saints created a one-two punch that
became the best tandem in the NFL.
Now taking his talents to Baltimore, Ingram to finally
show his net-worth is clearly on the docket. The Ravens are a club that
historically runs the ball in the worst of times, and now employ a quarterback (Lamar
Jackson) who will add to that running aptitude.
Coach Harbaugh has been searching for a true bell-cow
back to take the bull by the horns and lead this ground attack, and we feel he’s
found that in Ingram. In our perspective, Ingram’s value is off the charts with
high potential given where he will be drafted.
Tarik Cohen | CHI | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 14.6 | Rank 20
Some
may definitely ridicule the notion of placing the Bears speedy gadget man Tarik
Cohen at the 20th position on our ranks, but when you understand the
reasoning, we may change your opinion.
Purely
from a speculative thought process, it’s hard to envision the Bears using Cohen
as a lead runner given his size. The demands required from NFL running backs to
secure 200 plus carries is quite the daunting task. While it’s clear that coach
Matt Nagy would like to utilize Cohen’s ability more to create those mismatches
on the field, it’s our contention that Cohen will be used quite similarly as he
was last season.
PPR
(point per reception) upside is vast when discussing Cohen, and should once
again be the bread and butter of his game in 2019. As the Bears move forward,
there will be plenty of mouths to feed which is why we have placed him here.
There is potential for Cohen to move up marginally as the offseason comes to a
close.
Phillip Lindsay | DEN | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 14.9 | Rank 21
When
the Denver Broncos drafted Royce Freeman to eventually become the team’s lead
runner, undrafted rookie free agent Phillip Lindsay took full advantage of his
opportunity and never looked back.
While
we’ve seen some place Lindsay higher on their initial rankings, we feel placing
him at 21 is appropriate given the potential for a timeshare to recreate itself
in Denver. Royce Freeman was drafted by John Elway and will have a role in
2019. That being said, Lindsay is a very good player that can do everything
coming out of the backfield.
It’s
unclear how this offense at this stage will move with Joe Flacco leading the
charge, but Lindsay should again find ways to be productive.
Chris Carson | SEA | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 14.4 | Rank 22
When we discuss the Seahawks Chris Carson, we always
have to mention how enamored coach Pete Carroll is with his young running
back. Always showing his guy full support, we finally got to witness what he
was capable of last season.
Chris Carson is a very good player with decently high
upside, but does hold a certain level of concern with his injury history.
Another concern which still exists on this club is that Rashaad Penny is vying
for every opportunity to steal the starting role.
As the offseason progresses, the Seahawks continue to
be a team built to exploit the run and once again lead the NFL in rushing
yards. Unless things change drastically with added super talents at the
receiving position, Carson holds good upside, with a few red flags
attached.
Aaron Jones | GB | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 14.3 | Rank 23
While
we already know this will become an unpopular opinion amongst those who support
the Packers Aaron Jones, but we truly require more certainty before we can
offer our endorsement.
The
Packers haven’t been a sound running team for many years, and continue to under-utilize their talent at the running back position. While a new coaching
staff has been constructed to help change the course of direction, we wonder if
Jones will be seen as that number one back.
To
be clear, we aren’t questioning the ability Jones has, but rather are skeptics
on how he will be used.
Tevin Coleman | SF | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 12.1 | Rank 24
Our infatuation with the free agent signing of Tevin
Coleman to the 49ers has us licking our chops at the possibilities. With Jimmy
Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon returning to the field from injury, the projections
of this 49ers offense taking flight in 2019 under the genius offensive mind of
Kyle Shanahan - the outlook is very bright.
Some have strong feelings that Coleman will again find
a backseat to other runners much like it was in Atlanta, but we don’t view it
that way. Coleman should start the year as the lead back with McKinnon playing
the supportive pass catching role he has occupied throughout his career. While
we could see a full time share form as the year moves forward, Coleman has
great value.
Derrius Guice | WAS | 2018
Fantasy PPG: N/A | Rank 25
All
the hype placed on former LSU prospect Derrius Guice fell by the wayside when
he was lost to an ACL injury in the preseason. Having basically a full year to
recovery, and showing well on all workout tapes, Guice may be ranked a little
low and should move up our board in the future.
Coming
out of college, Guice was highly regarded as one of the better running backs to
come out of the draft and will hopefully find a way to prove he’s worth the
price of admission. While the Skins have made waves this offseason to replace
Alex Smith with Case Keenum (via trade), and continue to be in the market to add
more quarterback depth, this offense could be quite dysfunctional this season.
Though
Guice has solid upside, we need to witness appropriate progression from this
offense to move him up the board.
LeSean McCoy | BUF | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 9.1 | Rank 26
Refusing to let go might be an issue when we evaluate
the Bills LeSean McCoy. Coming off a career worst campaign in 2018, many are
writing off Shady believing the same will transpire. Call us sentimental in
showing too much respect, but we believe McCoy will find greener pastures in
this offense in 2019.
Buffalo was in a transitional phase which saw them
employ a rookie quarterback trying to build pieces that would be conductive to
a sustainable future. This ranking obviously comes with a great level of risk,
but seeing the body of work Shady is still able to produce, it’s clear the
offensive shortcomings was the issue and not McCoy’s ability.
As the Bills continue to move forward with added
pieces to the puzzle, we are still optimistic that he will get back to good
levels of production.
Derrick Henry | TEN | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 12.6 | Rank 27
We will not apologize for placing the Titans Derrick
Henry at the back end of our rankings, as in our eyes, he simply can’t be
trusted at this point. Also, we haven’t been shy in our displeasure of the
Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, and require a great deal of convincing to
make any drastic changes.
In defense of this offense and Mariota, the constant
changeover in offensive scheme hasn’t been conducive to the development. Moving
forward, this Titans team is loaded with talent and could make a push in 2019.
But from our perspective, we aren’t buying Henry high this year and will wait
for him to drop to land on our squad.
Kerryon Johnson | DET | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 13.9 | Rank 28
Placing the Lions Kerryon Johnson this low will
definitely provide a great deal of push-back, but we are prepared to deliver
our responses.
The Detroit Lions even with a new coaching staff
continue to be unclear on how to run the ball appropriately. There is no
question the talent Johnson possess, but with how this offense is constructed, we
must bow out to using a high pick in securing his services.
Signing CJ Anderson to the fold (via free agency)
places a wrinkle in the favor of Johnson holding the lead role in this
backfield. Adding to that, the unfortunate situation regarding Matthew
Stafford’s wife and her health could also leave the Lions without a quarterback
if things go sideways.
Based on talent Johnson is solid. Based on situation,
we choose to look in another direction.
Kenyan Drake | MIA | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 12.9 | Rank 29
The Miami Dolphins pulled the wool over our eyes last
season making us believe that Kenyan Drake would’ve been an ultimate performer
for that offense. Now with great changeover to the entire coaching staff and
offensive approach, Drake doesn’t tickle our fancy in 2019 either.
When speaking of this Fins offense, there will be a
great level of opportunity in garbage time as this club will clearly be playing
from behind majority of the season. At this point, Drake appears to be a
matchup player with high garbage time appeal.
Lamar Miller | HOU | 2018
Fantasy PPG: 12.3 | Rank 30
To
round out the early rankings for running backs, we feel we may have
disrespected the outlook of the Texans Lamar Miller. While this list isn’t
written in ink just yet, we feel we have no choice but to hold firm with Miller
at rank 30.
The
Texans as an offense should be able to support Miller and other backs currently
on this roster, but our feelings have us leaning toward Houston drafting
another back in the NFL draft. Also adding to the issue, D’Onta Foreman will be
returning from injury to place full competition on the position come training
camp. Though being a speculative thought at this time, Foreman (if healthy)
should get his shot at taking over the role leaving the outlook on Miller to
fade.
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