As the fantasy season has come to
an end it’s important to evaluate each position gaining understanding of their
current value. Current season value and previous season finishes are great
evaluating factors to where each player should reside for the upcoming season.
This evaluation is based on a 16-game fantasy season PPR custom format. Let’s
review!
2018 Top 10 Fantasy Football
Running Backs:
Saquon
Barkley (NYG)
2018 Points:
385.8 | 2017 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: +385.8 (Rank #1)
Coming out of the
2018 NFL draft, Saquon Barkley was pegged as the best player in that draft and
he surely didn’t disappoint. Leading the way this season, Barkley stole the top
spot from Todd Gurley after seeing the Rams sit their star back for the final
two games. Saquon was an absolute machine this season in both the run and the
pass game securing over 2000 all-purpose yards in a fabulous rookie campaign.
While Barkley finished the season second in rushing yards, it was his 91
receptions that turned heads. We knew Saquon was a gifted talent catching
passes, but falling just nine receptions short of 100 for the year is beyond
impressive. Barkley is a generational talent that should continue to wreak
havoc on opposing defenses.
Looking to 2019, an
argument can be had to place Barkley atop the fantasy draft board above Todd
Gurley provided the Giants address the quarterback position in the offseason.
Eli Manning is well past his prime and couldn’t muster much of anything
spectacular. If New York can find a way to upgrade the position and generate
traction, Barkley will feast again. Our only fear is that the Giants won’t
correct the QB position leaving defenses open to stack the box with nine men
leaving potential for a letdown season based on draft capital spent.
Christian
McCaffrey (CAR)
2018 Points:
385.5 | 2017 Points: 228.6 | Net Gain/Loss: +156.9 (Rank #2)
Entering training
camp, Coach Rivera went on record saying he would feed his star running back
with a full blown workload. While most scoffed at the notion, everything said
came to fruition as Christian McCaffrey proved to the league he was more than
capable in handling the added work. Finding his way to his first 1000 yard
rushing season, McCaffrey was able to generate a whopping 5 yards per carry
while hauling in a record 107 receptions for a running back. Christian missed
securing 2000 all-purpose yards by a mere 35 yards, which was extremely
impressive.
Moving on to 2019,
CMC could be prime for regression as we simply don’t know what the landscape of
the Panthers will look like for the new season. Adding to that, not knowing how
his body will respond to such a heavy workload the following season could bring
on a letdown. While those comments are speculative, believing that McCaffrey
will return to being a top 5 producer next season is where we lean as of
today.
Todd Gurley
(LAR)
2018 Points:
372.1 | 2017 Points: 383.3 | Net Gain/Loss: -11.2 (Rank #3)
Yet again, Todd
Gurley feasted his way to being one of the best in the business for a second
consecutive season. Gurley lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 17 while
falling just 183 rush yards short of leading in that category as well. Todd
missed the last two games with a knee injury and was in obvious discomfort all
the way back to week 11 which gave the impression he had didn’t match numbers
from last year. There is no question in our minds that Gurley would’ve
surpassed the 400 point mark this year had he finished off all 16 games.
Looking ahead to
2019, Todd Gurley could and should warrant the number one overall selection
again even though Barkley is right on his heels. The Rams will continue to be a
high powered unit under coach McVay, leaving the next few years prime for
Gurley to dominate the NFL stat books.
Alvin Kamara
(NO)
2018 Points:
354.2 | 2017 Points: 315.4 | Net Gain/Loss: +38.8 (Rank #4)
The New Orleans
Saints proved they had no intention of having a setback this season making a
clear case there are once again Super Bowl contenders. Leading the charge from
the backfield was second year dynamo, Alvin Kamara. Alvin once again proved his
worth showing that he is in fact the real deal. Kamara was again a feature in
the pass game hauling in another 81 receptions matching that same mark from a
season ago. The biggest lift to Alvin’s season was the amount of times he found
his way into the endzone, beating last year’s tallies by 5 for a total of 18
touchdowns. It was clear that even without Mark Ingram for the first four
games, Kamara was still able to carry the load.
Heading into the 2019
season, the Saints could be without both Mark Ingram (free agency) and Drew
Brees (possible retirement) leaving the potential to be far worse for Alvin’s
outlook. Though there has been nothing credible to suggest Brees won’t return, all
fantasy relevance for Kamara rests in the future of his quarterback.
Zeke Elliott
(DAL)
2018 Points:
329.2 | 2017 Points: 203.2 | Net Gain/Loss: +126 (Rank #5)
With no signs of
off-field concern this season, Zeke Elliott found his way back to lead the NFL
in rushing yards finding his way back to being a top 5 fantasy producer. Even
as Zeke managed to secure nearly 330 points, his totals would’ve been that much
greater had Dallas used him more in goal line situations. Elliott was the
recipient of only 6 rushing touchdowns but did see an uptick in the pass game
hauling in a career high 77 receptions. The season started slow but finished
strong for Zeke as Dallas went back to feeding the ground attack.
For next season,
Dallas should continue to use their star back as the primary workhorse for the
foreseeable future leaving his floor very high. Elliott is practically bust
proof provided Jason Garrett doesn’t try and get cute and throw the ball more
than he should.
James Conner
(PIT)
2018 Points:
280.0 | 2017 Points: 14.4 | Net Gain/Loss: +265.6 (Rank #6)
When LeVeon Bell chose
to sit out the 2018 season in protest for being franchised tagged for a second
straight season, James Conner took the bull by the horns and showed impressive
ability. Typically this Steelers offense is high flying on the worst of days
but proved that installing a backup runner could keep the train moving in the
right direction. Conner flashed great skill in this Steeler offense while just
missing his first 1000 yard rushing season in his short career. James lost 3
games to a high ankle sprain which undoubtedly cost him in reaching the coveted
300 point mark for fantasy running backs. Either way, it was a great season for
the second year back.
The outlook for 2019
is very hazy for this Pittsburgh organization, as recent reports show Antonio
Brown may have played his last snap in the yellow and black with disagreements
with other personal. Ben Roethlisberger has alluded to retirement on more than
one occasion, and could hang them up before the season begins. If Ben and Brown
don’t return to the mix, James Conner could see an evaluation of caution rather
than support from us at ADF.
James White
(NE)
2018 Points:
276.6 | 2017 Points: 134.0 | Net Gain/Loss: +142.6 (Rank #7)
We always had great
hope for James White to be a solid running back, but what he was able to
accomplish this season has been nothing short of fantastic. White took over the
Dion Lewis role to perfection leading as the change of pass and primary pass
catching back in this Patriots offense. Posting career high numbers in both
rushing and receiving categories untimely lead White to find the endzone a
whopping 12 times, also a career high. With all the added work and production,
White can easily be seen as one of the best fantasy draft bargains of the
entire season.
We have been back and
forth on the potential for James White for the 2019 season. So long as Tom
Brady returns for his 20th season, the Patriots should lean heavy on
their running back tandem in Sony Michel and James White to help move the ball.
White should continue to be a PPR darling with a lesser outlook in standard
formats.
Melvin
Gordon (LAC)
2018 Points:
275.5 | 2017 Points: 288.1 | Net Gain/Loss: -12.6 (Rank #8)
ADF hasn’t been shy
in our support of the Chargers Melvin Gordon as we wrote highly about his
ability in a player spotlight last summer. Gordon was on pace to shatter all
previous career highs in this offense while making a strong case to lead the
NFL in many categories. Unfortunately for Melvin, the injury bug struck again
to the tune of losing 4 games on the season while dropping almost 13 total
fantasy points in the process. Coach Lynn was using his primary back in the
most appropriate ways in both the run and pass games seeing Melvin reach new
career highs in rush yards per carry (5.1 per carry). Gordon was a key cog in
the success of your fantasy club this season, only to potentially cause losses
in the most important times.
Moving on to 2019,
our greatest concern is the recurring health issues for the fantastic talent.
Only being able to complete one full season in his four year career, Melvin has
missed nine contests in that span. There is no question he will return and
again dominate on the field, leaving him a potential steal in next year’s draft
amidst all these other running backs.
David
Johnson (ARZ)
2018 Points:
246.7 | 2017 Points: 13.1 | Net Gain/Loss: +233.6 (Rank #9)
It’s hard to argue
the campaign David Johnson completed was grossly disappointing to what he’s
given us in the past. Still managing to generate nearly 250 fantasy points on a
team that had no real offensive threat at the quarterback position; this should
be viewed as a success. Johnson fell just 60 yards short of securing his second
1000 yard season while seeing 8 and 9 man boxes for the majority of contests. Faulting
David for under-performing on this offense is doing him the greatest disservice.
Even with all the offensive struggles, DJ still managed to achieve the 9th
rank for players at his position.
While DJ remains a
premier running back in this league and should have a bounce back season in
2019, it’s difficult to predict as the Cardinals will again be searching for a
new head coach in hopes to bring stability to the club while helping Josh Rosen
reach his full potential. Value for DJ could be off the charts as he more than
likely could be snagged outside of the first round next season.
Joe Mixon
(CIN)
2018 Points:
243.4 | 2017 Points: 141.3 | Net Gain/Loss: +93.1 (Rank #10)
Being a huge fan of
Joe Mixon from his college days, we had no doubt he would be able to turn out
brilliant performances in the NFL. Holding down the 4th spot in league
rushing yards proves he has all the ability to be a full-time workhorse back.
Seeing career highs in every category, we still wonder if his stat-line
would’ve been that much more inflated had he not missed those 2 games to a knee
injury. While the Bengals continued to struggle with injuries and enigmatic
play, Mixon was the main constant that held this ship afloat most weeks.
Moving toward 2019,
the outlook on this club could view extremely different as Cincinnati has
finally moved on from long-time head coach Marvin Lewis. With heavy roster
change over on the menu, it’s difficult to see what the Bengals could be at
this point. Either way, Mixon should be a big part of this offense and will be
prime for another solid season.
2018 Top 5 Failed Value Running
Backs:
LeVeon Bell
(PIT)
2018 Points:
N/A| 2017 Points: 341.6 | Net Gain/Loss: -341.6 (Rank #1)
When discussing
failure and disappointment, there perhaps is no greater bust in fantasy
football history then that of the 2018 version of LeVeon Bell. Everyone knew
that Bell was dissatisfied with his contract situation, but no one would’ve
envisioned him sitting out the entire season. Some fantasy managers took the
chance and used a first round selection on the super-star only to see him
housed on the bench for the entire year until he could be placed on the wire.
Failed value is an understatement for LeVeon this season.
Looking forward to
next season, the potential for Bell to once again place himself atop the league
leaders is possible, but knowing where he’ll play is the key. Rumors have
lifted suggesting the Colts could be a great place for Bell as they possess a
great deal of cap space and have a team ready to take the next step. Wherever
Bell ends up, he should make that offense 100-times better and will be back on the
fantasy relevant super-star list.
Devonta
Freeman (ATL)
2018 Points:
14.1 | 2017 Points: 200.2 | Net Gain/Loss: -186.1 (Rank #2)
At this point, we are
beginning to lose faith in the Falcons number one runner Devonta Freeman. Under-performing in 2017, to only lose basically the entire 2018 season, will
surly place Freeman in the dog house in our minds. While we understand fighting
a season ending injury is never the players fault, the value verse return
hasn’t been met for two consecutive seasons for Freeman leaving a massive
question mark for the new-year.
Looking ahead to
2019, Freeman should return to full health while the Falcons undergo yet
another change to the offensive coordinator, leaving more question marks on
this offense. With Tevin Coleman looking to strike it rich in free agency,
Freeman will only have to deal with Ito Smith for time share making his stake quite
high. Freeman could return to form next season and could house fantastic value
for where he might be selected. Freeman has potential sleeper candidate written
all over him entering next season’s fantasy drafts.
LeSean McCoy
(BUF)
2018 Points:
127.2 | 2017 Points: 263.6 | Net Gain/Loss: -136.4 (Rank #3)
At this point we have
no choice but to place Shady McCoy as one of the biggest failures of the 2018
fantasy season. While we knew the Bills would struggle early on with a rookie
quarterback and a sub-par offensive line, but we could’ve have seen a career
worst season for LeSean in that process. Entering the age of 31, father time
isn’t on McCoy’s side as he will begin the inevitable stages of decline very
shortly. If the end of the season is any indication, the Bills could finally
have a long term answer at the quarterback position with Josh Allen leading the
way. This could rejuvenate the Bills run attack provided they add offensive
line help while adding a top flight receiver to the mix.
When trying to
predict the 2019 season for Shady, a lot of important steps must take place for
him to have any sort of rebound. The Bills have ample room under the cap to
make moves in free agency, while holding a plethora of picks in the draft. Even
with improvement to the roster, Shady should be viewed as a declining
talent.
Leonard
Fournette (JAX)
2018 Points:
120.4 | 2017 Points: 230.2 | Net Gain/Loss:
-109.8 (Rank #4)
Perhaps one of the
biggest non factors this season for a runner that was pegged to have a
fantastic campaign, the Jags Leonard Fournette failed his owners who chose to
secure his services late in the first to early second rounds of the 2018 draft.
Leonard never found full health this season only able to suit up for 8 total contests.
In his two seasons with the Jaguars, Fournette has been nothing short of
disappointing given all the hype he projected coming out of the 2017 NFL draft.
With rumors swirling
already regarding his future with the team, suggestions have been made that
trading or straight releasing the often injured potential star could be a
formality. Perhaps a change of scenery would do Leonard some good, but his
health remains the largest obstacle. As of today, red flags surround the entire
body of work for Fournette.
Dalvin Cook
(MIN)
2018 Points:
152.0 | 2017 Points: 65.4 | Net
Gain/Loss: +86.6 (Rank #5)
Another potential
star in the making didn’t flash greatness like most expected in 2018. ADF
didn’t preach great affinity for Cook this season as typically coming off an
ACL takes time to relocate your grove. As the season wore on, Cook began to
pick up steam showing signs of full health and explosiveness responding well in
terms of confidence.
A lot can be said for
the last five games of a season to propel the prospect for the following year.
Entering 2019, the Vikings will undoubtedly correct their inadequacies and we
have a feeling Dalvin Cook will be a very large part of their success. Experts
who preached a banner year from Cook in 2018 were just one year shy, 2019 will
be the year Dalvin Cook shows what he can do.
2019 High Potential Running
Backs:
Nick Chubb (CLE)
2018 Points:
194.5 | 2017 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: +194.5
The Cleveland Browns
proved they are a much better unit then previous seasons and finally have a
blueprint to potential success. Leading the way in that department is their
fantastic rookie running back Nick Chubb. The former Georgia Bulldog product
was given the full time roll in week 7 and never looked back. Nick Chubb is a
prime candidate to be over drafted in the 2019 fantasy draft, but he should be
able to muster great production for your squad. High potential with great
upside will exist for Nick Chubb.
2019
Projected Points: 230-260
Tevin Coleman (ATL)
2018 Points:
193.6 | 2017 Points: 167.9 | Net Gain/Loss: +25.7
We at ADF have always
been huge fans of the Falcons Tevin Coleman and with the potential of him
finding a new home in free agency; his outlook could be off the charts. While
his overall season didn’t show very well as the lead back in Atlanta, he did
reach new career highs in carries (167), rush yards (800), and average per
carry (4.8). All this could set up great for a team willing to take a shot on
him this offseason as their lead back. Depending on the team roster and
dynamic, Coleman could be one of the best value draft picks at the running back
position. Still, a lot must transpire this offseason before we can fully
provide a gleaming endorsement.
2019
Projected Points: 230-280
Aaron Jones (GB)
2018 Points:
171.5 | 2017 Points: 80.0 | Net Gain/Loss: +91.5
The Packers Aaron
Jones is another one of those players that continues to be underutilized even
though his skillset proves he could be something special. With that said, Jones
has struggled with health when given a greater share of the workload as seen in
both of his first two seasons in the NFL. When the Packers took off the
training wheels back in week 8, Aaron Jones was able to produce and generate
unbelievable numbers in the process. Jones managed to muster 537 rush yards, 22
receptions, and 8 total touchdowns from week 8 to 15, which is very impressive.
If Green Bay chooses to give Jones the lead role, he could be in for a massive
uptick in value for 2019.
2019
Projected Points: 250-260
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