Fantasy Football 2018 Review / 2019 Outlook – QB

As the fantasy season has come to an end, it’s important to evaluate each position while gaining understanding of their current value. Current season value and previous season finishes are great evaluating factors to where each player should reside for the upcoming season. This evaluation is based on a 16-game fantasy season PPR format. Let’s review!

2018 Top 10 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

2018 Points: 417.0 | 2017 Points: 10.4 | Net Gain/Loss: +406.6 (Rank #1)

When the Chiefs shipped Alex Smith to the Redskins last offseason, the writing was on the wall for youngster Patrick Mahomes to take the starting role and produce, and boy did he ever. Mahomes concluded a fantasy season for the ages reaching pinnacles of over 5000 passing yards and 50 touchdown passes placing him in elite company in the NFL. Being the only fantasy quarterback to secure over 400 fantasy points on the season, it wouldn’t surprise us to witness many championship teams have Patrick as their starting QB.

Moving forward to next season, Mahomes will be one of the first, if not the top selected quarterback in fantasy drafts in 2019. With that said, a slight letdown could occur next season as reaching these statistical heights will be a challenge. Either way, this type of productivity should be consistent for the 23 year old superstar.     

Matt Ryan (ATL)

2018 Points: 354.0 | 2017 Points: 228.1 | Net Gain/Loss: +125.9 (Rank #2)

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons season was a complete wash and disaster as they found their way on the outside looking in for the postseason. Having devastating injuries to the defensive side and losing Devonta Freeman for majority of the year, Matt Ryan was forced to throw the ball more often in attempts to keep Atlanta in games each week. Even with the added pressure of throwing over 600 balls this season, Ryan impressively threw a mere 7 interceptions highlighting his best interception ratio of his career (1.2%). Matt Ryan again found himself back to numbers comparable to his 2016 NFL MVP season raising his fantasy point differential to hit over 120 points which is extraordinary. Team success wasn’t there, but from the fantasy perspective, it was a solid season.

As the Falcons look to clean house on the coaching staff, this again comes with giant red flags. ADF has never been a supporter of recently fired offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, but the past has proven that any change to the offensive scheme hurts Ryan’s overall outlook in year one of installation. It’s possible we could see Matt Ryan again over drafted in 2019, only to fall short of expectations yet again.  

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

2018 Points: 341.0 | 2017 Points: 260.6 | Net Gain/Loss: +80.4 (Rank #3)

The Steelers and Big-Ben were another club which endured a massive letdown as a team this season but witnessed Roethlisberger hit career highs in both passing yards (5129 yards), and touchdown passes (34 TDs) at the ripe age of 36 years old. It’s no secret that the Steeler offense went to a much heavier passing attack given the fact that LeVeon Bell was no longer part of the club. Even as James Conner filled in masterfully, seeing Big-Ben throw the ball a whopping league high 675 times this season proves the run game wasn’t what it used to be without Bell. While Ben had games which could’ve cost your fantasy team victories, his overall season performance would’ve taken you far.

Looking to next season, a multitude of speculation will come out in the next month or two regarding the Steelers. Coming into this campaign, Ben suggested the option of retirement which will be front and center this offseason. Adding to that, recent news that star receiver Antonio Brown may have requested a trade from the team, which would only hurt Roethlisberger’s outlook next season. Seeing a repeat performance from Ben in 2019 isn’t something we are expecting at this point.       

Deshaun Watson (HOU)

2018 Points: 331.9 | 2017 Points: 168.8 | Net Gain/Loss: +163.1 (Rank #4)

The Houston Texans found their stride after dropping their first three games of the season to finish the year atop the AFC South. Deshaun Watson continued to gain confidence on that surgically repaired knee as the season progressed, putting up a healthy 20.7 fantasy per game point average, placing him in the top five in that category as well. Our concern for Watson entering this season was how well he would be able to handle his own mind and if tentative play would be the outcome. Watson proved that he looks to be over his knee injury, but failed to provide that extreme electricity from last season. Either way, finishing as the 4^th best fantasy quarterback isn’t too shabby.

As the Texans look to the NFL postseason, a lot will be said for next year’s evaluation for Deshaun’s fantasy outlook. More pieces will be added to this offense to provide more options for Watson to distribute the ball. For any young quarterback on the rise, the future looks bright for Watson to continue being a fantasy darling at quarterback.    

Andrew Luck (IND)

2018 Points: 327.1 | 2017 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: +327.1 (Rank #5)

Resurrected from the dead, Andrew Luck returned to the field and produced near career high numbers putting to bed the health of that repaired throwing shoulder. Admittedly, we at ADF had our reservations if Luck would be able to find his way back, and he proved it more than once this season. Under new bench boss Frank Reich, the Colts become a quicker passing club exploiting their weapons in ways that would work best. Even with the success being highlighted, Andrew Luck continued to be careless with the ball throwing a whopping 15 interceptions which is on par with his career average. Cleaning up that aspect of his game would go a long way in Luck challenging for a top three placement for fantasy quarterbacks.

With ample amount of money to spend against the cap, rumors have already been flying around suggesting Indianapolis could be interesting in signing free agent LeVeon Bell which would only inflate the prospects of this offense being more fierce. Speculation aside, we could easily see the Colts add receiver, running back, and more offensive line help making Luck a potential steel come draft day. Outlook could be extremely high in 2019.   

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

2018 Points: 312.5 | 2017 Points: 129.5 | Net Gain/Loss: +197.6 (Rank #6)

While Aaron Rodgers completed the season better than his injury plagued 2017 campaign, ranking 6^th among fantasy quarterbacks isn’t something that is typical of Rodgers. Seeing an offense continue to struggle to hit high gear all season, the results inevitably ended the Mike McCarthy rein leaving many potential possibilities for next season. Even with a sub-par overall season, Rodgers still rewarded his fantasy managers to over 300 fantasy points which would’ve kept teams competitive during head-to-head battles. This was far from a lost season, but not what we expected from a talent such as his. 

Looking to 2019, while DaVante Adams once again proved he is an elite level talent hauling in everything thrown in his direction; it was the supporting cast that didn’t jive well with Aaron. Finding a permanent solution at running back and offensive line would do wonders for the potential outlook for Rodgers to find his way back to over 400 fantasy points. Aaron has never seen a different offensive scheme in his NFL career, so growing pains could transpire in the new-year, something to keep your eye on. 

Jared Goff (LAR)

2018 Points: 310.3 | 2017 Points: 255.5 | Net Gain/Loss: +54.8 (Rank #7)

The LA Rams continued to be one of the most prolific offensive teams in the NFL this season under coach McVay, but did suffer a letdown after that amazing Monday Night performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. Goff was able to increase his totals this season by nearly 55 fantasy points to reach over the 300 total point mark, which in itself is impressive. The Rams are a group that should continue to be a high flying unit as it appears the loss of Cooper Kupp was more important than we would’ve thought.

No Matter how the NFL playoffs transpire for the Rams, coach McVay is very intelligent and should have the Rams on top the NFC for many years to come. Jared Goff will continue to have fantasy relevance for at least the next several years barring injury.

Drew Brees (NO)

2018 Points: 303.8 | 2017 Points: 262.6 | Net Gain/Loss: +41.2 (Rank #8)

Last season Drew Brees saw a statistical down grade do in part to the fantastic running of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, only to see gains of over 40 fantasy points this year. With age not on his side, Drew Brees still enjoyed playing at a very high level and could transfer that into yet another solid campaign in 2019. His draft value will undoubtedly go down with the rise of younger talent, but Drew could be a bargain next season securing his services later in drafts.

If the Saints win the Super Bowl this season, the questions will rise suggesting that Drew would perhaps hang up the cleats going out on top. If Brees does come back for another season, New Orleans would be encouraged to add more receiving weapons to help this offense become even more dynamic. The potential for Mark Ingram to also jump ship in free agency is real, which could have both a positive and negative effect on this offense. If Brees returns, he should get you 300+ points again in 2019.  

Russell Wilson (SEA)

2018 Points: 298.4 | 2017 Points: 347.8 | Net Gain/Loss: -49.4 (Rank #9)

The biggest dropper in the quarterback ranks belongs to the Seahawks Russell Wilson. Holding the top spot last season with almost 350 fantasy points could be an indication that last year’s crop all had down seasons. Wilson was the only QB in 2017 to move past the 300 point mark while this season saw eight tally more than 300 with one hitting over 400 points. Even as Wilson lost nearly 50 total points this season, he played extremely well given the fact that his number one target (Doug Baldwin) was playing injured for the entire season. The value for Wilson for where you most likely selected him in the draft obviously was a failure, but moving forward, Russell still is a top fantasy option.

As the Hawks will continue to rebuild this offense adding more weapons to the fold, it should only increase the outlook for next year making Russell a potential bargain much like Drew Brees.   

Dak Prescott (DAL)

2018 Points: 285.7 | 2017 Points: 260.8 | Net Gain/Loss: +24.9 (Rank #10)

The Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott turned out a solid second half of the season to find himself back holding the exact same placement (10^th spot) as last season while gaining nearly 25 extra fantasy points. The start of the season proved that Dallas attempted to adjust their formula to become more of a pass friendly offense which didn’t bode well. After trading for Amari Cooper from the Raiders and going back to feeding Zeke Elliott over employing more pass attempts, Dallas found their play action pass in bunches allowing Dak to exploit defenses. In our mind, Prescott will never reach the heights of the elitist in the NFL, but he does have great strengths with a sound run attack behind him.

Moving to 2019, the Cowboys should focus their energy on shoring up inadequacies on that offensive line while continuing to feature their star running back as the main attraction. It is the recipe that will provide Dak the best opportunity for success. Dak would still hold great value in matchup play with potential to be a weekly starter in the new-year.

2018 Top 5 Failed Value Quarterbacks:

Alex Smith (WAS)

2018 Points: 137.9 | 2017 Points: 295.1 | Net Gain/Loss: -157.2 (Rank #1)

Based on last season’s performances, Alex Smith endured the largest set back in statistical achievement while only missing 6 games to that broken leg. Smith’s 2018 season saw a point differential of 157 fantasy points dropping him from being the 4^th ranked quarterback in 2017, to holding the 30^th rank in 2018. To place this in a better perspective due to his gruesome injury, Smith averaged a healthy 19.7 points a season ago, only to drop to a mediocre average of 13.79 in the 10 games he played this season, not a solid trend. Safe to say moving to Washington was a complete bust fantasy wise for Alex Smith.

Moving forward in terms of next year’s outlook, given his age and the fact that his leg has seen multiple surgeries to be set back in place, Smith may have played his last down of NFL football. Alex will be off the radar unless he proves otherwise.

Carson Wentz (PHI)

2018 Points: 192.4 | 2017 Points: 283.7 | Net Gain/Loss: -91.3 (Rank #2)

Last year’s Super Bowl Champs had to make that impressive run without Carson Wentz, only to see the exact same transpire again this season. Being able to suit up for only 11 games this season, Carson saw a massive 91.3 points less compared to last year’s break out campaign. Health is becoming a concern for fantasy owners to trust Wentz as he never appeared right from the start of the season. Philadelphia also lacked the threat of a solid run game to assist Carson throughout his short time on the field in 2018. Ranking 5^th overall last season for producing quarterbacks in fantasy football, Carson completed this season ranked as the 22^nd best while still averaging a decent 17.5 points per game.

The Eagles will have some work to do this offseason to correct the inefficiencies in this offense while nursing Carson along back to full health and confidence. If all moves in the right direction, Wentz could be a candidate for fantasy comeback player of the year in 2019. 

Tom Brady (NE)

2018 Points: 280.4 | 2017 Points: 295.9 | Net Gain/Loss: -15.5 (Rank #3)

It fully appears that age is catching up to the great Tom Brady as elite level play was rarely seen from the future hall of famer. While 2017 was a down year for most fantasy QB’s, Brady did finish the season ranked 3^rd among his peers in points scored. Even as Tom failed to match his point totals from a season ago, he fell just 15 points shy of last year’s mark, making the overall appearance statistically look better than what was actually put on the field.  

Some may not want to say it, but the decline is real and will take shape each and every year Brady chooses to continue to play. With that said Bill Belichick is a master at masking problematic situations and will attempt to close this loop also. Buyer-beware should be the mantra for Brady next year in fantasy.

Matthew Stafford (DET)

2018 Points: 212.1 | 2017 Points: 273.8 | Net Gain/Loss: -61.7 (Rank #4)

ADF had gleaming hopes that the Lions Matthew Stafford would take the next step this season proving that you could employ him on a weekly basis as your starter, providing great value for where he would’ve been drafted. Finishing off 2017 as the 7^th best quarterback in fantasy football with the addition of difference making running backs, the potential meter was looking sound. Alas, Stafford and the Lions again feel flat on their faces while witnessing Matthew loose almost 62 points in the process. Seeing his rank slip from 7^th to 19^th upon conclusion of the season, our optimism for a better 2019 will be a tough sell.    

The Lions require more play makers and an infusion of offensive line talent if we expect Matthew to return to career numbers in the near future. It isn’t out of the question for this to transpire this offseason, but a clear path is needed before we can endorse him again.  

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)

2018 Points: 47.9 | 2017 Points: 86.9 | Net Gain/Loss: -39.0 (Rank #5)

While we understand it’s a disservice to place the 49ers Jimmy G on this list as he was lost for the season to an ACL injury back in week 3, but based on the hype and where Jimmy would’ve been drafted, he is the 5^th ranked failure at the position for 2018. The prospects for the 49ers to be a club to do damage this season was very real, but continued to unravel as more players found their way to the medical room. A lost season is the only way to describe what happened to Garoppolo.

Like any player coming off a serious knee injury, it’s how that player responds to contact and on field action that will provide insight into the potential outcome. Some will be willing to risk a higher pick to secure his services in 2019, but we would like to see him on the field before we offer our endorsement.

2019 High Potential Quarterbacks:

Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)

2018 Points: 262.9 | 2017 Points: 134.6 | Net Gain/Loss: +128.3

Under the tutelage of Coach Matt Nagy, Trubisky found his way to garner an impressive 128.3 extra points over last season placing him a mere 22.8 points from matching Dak Prescott for 10^th overall for quarterbacks. For young players, especially QB’s, we need to witness progression carry over to feel comfortable to endorse the potential for the following season. Mitchell still requires refinement to his overall game, but the meter is definitely rising as the Bears could continue to be a force in 2019. Love the upside to value in the 2019 draft for Trubisky.   

2019 Potential Points Scored: 300-340  

Baker Mayfield (CLE)

2018 Points: 240.0 | 2017 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: N/A

The Browns under Hue Jackson made one right decision, and that was selecting Baker Mayfield as their franchise quarterback. Admittedly, we at ADF entered the season lower than most on Baker and his prospects, but have no issue eating our words now. Mayfield turned out a great rookie season clearly getting better with each passing contest. Taking over for Tyrod Taylor back in week 3, Baker tossed an incredible 27 touchdowns hitting at least one score in every game he started. Completing the season with 240 fantasy points and averaging 17.14 points per game, the outlook is only pointing up for Baker Mayfield and the Browns. High potential-high upside for 2019.

2019 Potential Points Scored: 280-320  

Josh Allen (BUF)

2018 Points: 208.1 | 2017 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: N/A

The naysayers came out in drones when the Bills selected the statistically inaccurate passer in Josh Allen. While that statistic proved to be a similar issue in the NFL much like college, Allen made waves for his athletic ability rushing for over 600 yards and becoming the Bills all-time season leader in that category. Being a dual threat quarterback is music to our ears for fantasy football especially since Josh stands a mammoth 6 foot 5 inches tall while weighing nearly 240 pounds which could limit his injury risk when he takes off. While we agree, his passing accuracy needs to improve in short and intermediate routes, his arm strength is top notch and could turn into something special. The jury is still out on what he will become, but high potential does exist.

2019 Potential Points Scored: 270-310