Player Spotlight & Fantasy Outlook - Sammy Watkins

SammyWatkins Wide Receiver #14

Kansas City Chiefs | 

Height: 6-1   Weight: 211   Age: 25

Born: 6/14/1993 Fort Myers, FL

College: Clemson

Experience: 5th season

High School: South Fort Myers HS [Fort Myers, FL]

The Perception:

It’s very difficult to find a player of such talent have such an unfavourable view and perception among fan bases and the fantasy football community. Truly that is Sammy Watkins reality as of today based on a very underwhelming start to his now fifth season in the NFL, starting over once again with his third NFL franchise. Having played for the Buffalo Bills, the LA Rams, and now calling Kansas City his home gearing up for his first campaign with Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Expectations and evaluations have been all over the map whenever we discuss Watkins with fellow colleagues.

Sammy has turned himself into quite the enigma in some respects with both his lack of substantial production, and his inability to remaining healthy for the duration of the season. Outside of his rookie year in Buffalo, Watkins hasn’t been able to complete a full sixteen game slate, missing twelve contests in the last three seasons, not a great track record. To go along with durability concerns, reviewing Watkins statistics over his four year career, Sammy has only been able to muster one 1000 yard season while seeing a complete drop off in year three and four. Injuries made Watkins expendable with the Bills after the 2016 campaign which led to great speculation that a revival of his career would take shape under offensive genius Sean McVay in Los Angeles; however that too never came to fruition. Watkins saw an improvement from his 2016 season but still underachieved hauling in only 39 receptions for 593 yards, but did manage to secure 8 touchdowns for the Rams which became the highlight from his 2017 season.    

It’s quite clear in our eyes that both the Bills and the Rams had the wrong observation of how to use the extremely talented player, exploiting every opportunity possible. While the Bills made Sammy their offensive depth threat, the Rams too saw Watkins as a one dimensional player forcing him to run deep routes rather than understanding the complete skillset available. His days in Buffalo were marred with inadequate quarterback play, inept play calling and offensive scheming. In Los Angeles, Watkins was unfortunately treated as more of a decoy with the potential of deep shot success, while Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp become the mainstays with shorter pass completions dominating the game plans. We’ve all heard the popular phrase “a mind is a terrible thing to waste”; the exact position can be used in terms of exceptional talent being wasted when discussing Sammy Watkins.      

The Reality:

Some coaches struggle to appropriately identify skillset, or they plainly force the issue trying to make a player into something they aren’t, which leads to disaster and misrepresentation. Sammy Watkins is a playmaker simple and true. Understanding what Sammy does best will go a long way in his new digs in Kansas City. Early showings in OTA’s (Organized Team Activity), has Watkins all over the formation learning every receiver positional responsibility in hopes to generate better and more consistent production, Andy Reid seems to understand the skillset! Going back reviewing the Clemson film of Watkins, one would see in clear sight the glaring difference from how he’s been used in the NFL. First, there’s no question we believe Sammy can be a plausible deep threat with great success, but to effectively extract the most from his talents is to get the ball in his hands allowing him to make defenders miss for big gains. Watkins was a leader every season in YAC yards (Yards after Reception) while playing for the Clemson Tigers racking up fantastic production in the process. In his sophomore season with the Tigers, Watkins nearly had 600 YAC yards in that one season; while in his NFL career Sammy has produced less than 800 total YAC yards, see the correlation?          

The frustration boils over further when reviewing past scouting reports that have directly stated; Sammy Watkins has a rare combination of speed, short area quickness, and ability to challenge defenders high pointing the ball in contested situations. The praise continues suggesting Watkins talent would allow NFL teams to add many dimensions to their offense as his skillset is vastly versatile. These comments only add credence to our argument that throughout his entire NFL tenure, Watkins has been used incorrectly for the majority of his short career. With all that said, being objective to every situation is very important, and all the blame can’t be simply placed on the coaches and systems he played for, but rather understanding what Watkins hasn’t done also leads to his lack of production. While Sammy has been somewhat of a touchdown machine generating 25 scores on only 192 receptions, his lack of progression in perfecting his route running and release off the line is possibly something ex-coaches have witnessed, growing frustrated eventually forcing Watkins to run Go-Routes as the skillset wasn’t being applied on the field. There is a combination when evaluating Watkins to suggest that his shortcomings are a result of 60% bad coaching and 40% lack of transferred ability which has contributed to his lack of statistical triumph.

The Outlook:

The potential for yet another speculated rebirth for Watkins is once again high in our eyes, but this time the value ticker is much higher. The Kansas City Chiefs offense could possibly be better rounded then what the Rams possessed last season giving Sammy a leg up. The Chiefs have a solid running attack and a plethora of viable playmaking pass catchers with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill leading the way. With Sammy learning all receiver situations with the potential to see more time in the slot, leaves us licking our chops for what could transpire especially in PPR (Point per Reception) leagues. The one caveat still in question is the progression of the newly anointed franchise quarterback Patrick Mahomes. This offense will live and die at his hands and move as fast as he learns the NFL game.

Watkins 2017 fantasy season was one that was extremely frustrating which ended with him being ranked the 40^th producing wide receiver in the NFL, generating 146.3 fantasy points, not great whatsoever. While Sammy did save his fantasy year with 8 touchdowns which happened to inflate his totals, it truly was a lost season leaving most with a bad taste in their mouth. While ADF will go out on a limb and speculate to the potential for this upcoming season, we feel Sammy could get up to level that could appropriately place him in the weekly flex position, with creating WR2 appeal. It’s not out of the question to see Watkins hit career highs as 60-70 receptions for 1050-1100 yards, and 6-8 touchdowns is where we see this playing out. While his celling could be quite high, he also holds a very low floor. It’s difficult to envision Watkins having another season like last, but he has fooled us before which places our evaluation on thin ice. Sammy should flirt with 180-200 fantasy points this season.