Atlanta Falcons |
Height: 6-3 Weight:
220 Age: 29
Born: 2/8/1989 Foley , AL
College: Alabama
Experience: 8th season
High School: Foley HS [AL]
The Perception:
Over the
last seven seasons, the argument has been made to include Julio Jones in the conversation
suggesting he is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but never once fully
anointing him as the top pass catcher in the game. ADF has always been a huge
supporter of what Julio Jones is - with freakish talent and ability taking over
games at will. When Julio burst onto the NFL stage expectations reined extremely
high, to which he produced proving he was indeed worth the price of admission.
Julio Jones
steeped in from day one to lead the Falcons as a true number one receiver,
becoming a target machine while generating massive statistics in the process.
The early knock on Jones was his injury history which has seen him miss 17
games in his career thus far, but it appears he has cleaned up that issue in
only missing 3 games over the last four seasons. Adding to the perception that
Julio is an injury prone player, the lack of touchdown production for a player
of his skillset provides credence to those who will never rank Jones as the
best in the business, especially with a career low 3 touchdowns from the 2017
season. While we agree seeing low production levels in the endzone would make
anyone shy away from over drafting the former Alabama standout, there is only
one way to go in the upcoming season, UP!
While Jones
quarterback Matt Ryan has had an uneven career, especially when the Falcons employ
a new offensive system, the trend in his second year of familiarity with his
offensive coordinator sees a clear uptick in production. Adding to that, the
Falcons added another former Alabama product to catch passes in this offense in
the young Calvin Ridley. Some view this addition as another potential issue for
the 2018 outlook for Julio Jones, but we at ADF see this as a great positive in
getting Jones back on track. It’s no secret that Jones demands extra attention from
opposing defenses consistently pulling double teams to his side. Adding another
viable weapon to this offense will create situations where Jones will actually enjoy
more single coverage, allowing him to exploit the opportunity. While some don’t
share this view, their perception of Julio for the upcoming season is a continuing
trend of lower production with far too many mouths to feed on this offense.
The Reality:
It was very
clear when Kyle Shanahan jumped ship to take on the head coaching responsibilities
for the San Francisco 49ers, he left the Falcons in utter dismay trying to pick
up the pieces. Current offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian was in over his
head last season showing his inability to adapt while forcing the issue with inept
play calling and schemes. The entire Falcons offense took a giant leap in the wrong
direction last season regressing form the Super Bowl caliber squad they had
become under Shanahan. Choosing to remain the course, head coach Dan Quinn provided
support to his new offensive coordinator believing continuity would benefit the
Falcons creating cohesion with a full season under their belt while installing
new plays under the same system.
We at ADF
still find ourselves wavering to endorse the play calling abilities of
Sarkisian, but believe they will take a great leap in the right direction in
2018. Correcting the inefficiencies in their redzone approach should allow
Jones to find holes with three receiver sets creating mismatches every time the
Falcons try to score points. The Falcons trio of playmaking receivers in Sanu,
Ridley, and of course Jones will be a formidable unit that opposing defenses will
have a difficult time shutting down. We do recognize the effect in having so
many talented players on the roster and how that may impact Julio’s output, but
we’ve seen what Matt Ryan could do given the opportunity setting career numbers
in a system that’s conducive to his abilities. The situation in Atlanta is definitely
on the uptick as they should contend from day one producing numbers we’ve
become accustomed to from the past.
The Outlook:
While we can’t
argue the fact that touchdown production has been the letdown in Julio’s
career, as anointing him the best receiver in the game would be far easier had
his stat lines shown 10+ receiving scores consistently per season, which hasn’t
been the case. Julio is still a beast in his own right as over the last four
seasons we’ve enjoyed witnessing Jones haul in 411 receptions for 6317
yards and 23 touchdowns,
which is still very impressive. Jones is a true difference maker on the field
and should easily find his way to a rebound season with this stacked offense.
Reviewing
Jones 2017 fantasy season, the clear disappointment was the lack of touchdowns produced
and the sharp decline in receptions and targets to come his way. Julio finished
the season totaling 251.9
fantasy points (PPR format) ranking him as the 7th best wide receiver in the NFL last season, a
far cry from previous years production. That point total generated a weekly
average of 15.74 points which
is dastardly low for where he would’ve been drafted in terms of his ADP
(Average Draft Position). Currently Julio is holding steady with an ADP
hovering around number 11 to
number 14 making him a
possible target early in the second round and holding great value.
It’s not out
of the question to see Jones improve this season even if his target share does
decrease slightly. The amount of quality plays that will generate chunk yardage
and the potential for increased touchdowns should be seen and felt throughout the
season. As of today, Julio Jones carries the 7th easiest schedule for fantasy wide receivers
while potentially seeing far less double teams and a second season under the
same offensive system, all signs are pointing in the right direction. Adding to
that, Julio saw 143 targets in 2017 which alluded to a completion rate of 62%
giving him 88 receptions on the season, quite low for his standards. Even if
Julio sees his targets drop to 130 in 2018, single coverage would undoubtedly increase
his completion rate potentially generating another 10-15 receptions equating to
more production. Julio should improve on last year’s tallies which could see him
finish the season with a floor of 280
fantasy points, with the potential to get back over the 300 point mark. Get ready for the resurgence in ATL!
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