As the NFL offseason
is in full swing, it’s a perfect opportunity to evaluate where each team was in
2017, and where they plan to go in the New Year. Let’s begin the review of
the New England Patriots.
2017 Season Recap:
Going into any season the expectations ride supremely high for the New
England Patriots, and entering 2017 was no different. Coming off a historic
comeback victory in the Super Bowl, sustainment again was front and center for
a club that thinks of the regular season as a formality rather than a
challenge. The unusual scenario as the offseason was beginning to take shape,
was the amount of money Bill Belichick was willing to spend on acquiring free
agent talent. Notable signings included, former Bills defensive back Stephon Gilmore,
former Bengal running back Rex Burkhead, and re-signing Don’t’a Hightower to a
new deal. Adding to those big transactions, Belichick orchestrated a monster
trade to bring high-end speedster talent Brandin Cooks to the club. Lazy
predictions had the Pats rolling through the year with another undefeated
record, an unrealistic thought as this team employed its own level of depth
holes.
Opening the season on the Thursday Night time slot to kick-off week one,
the Patriots hosted the Chiefs in Foxborough. Putting to rest a year of
complete excellence, the Chiefs walked in laying the rout on Tom Brady and the
Pats 42-27 running up and down the field on that defense. Being no worse for
wear, the Patriots as they usually do, regrouped and adjusted winning their
next two games. Concern was beginning to rise as the play of the defense was
getting horrible press and rightfully so. Matt Patricia couldn’t figure out how
to stop the bleeding and it was very apparent in most games they played.
Dropping their week four contest to the Panthers, New England entered the
favorable portion of their schedule. From week five to week thirteen, New
England rolled to victory winning eight straight against the Bucs, Jets,
Falcons, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins, and the Bills. With a record of
10-2 entering week 14, New England had a hiccup verses the Dolphins who
dominated play and upset the Pats 27-20 on Monday Night Football. Brushing the
loss off their shoulders, New England again made the regular season a simple convention
winning their last three games and obtaining home field advantage throughout
the playoffs.
As the Patriots enjoyed their week off, they received a gift from the
Kansas City Chiefs as they dropped a sure win to the Titans, giving the Pats a
favorable matchup going into divisional round weekend. As expected, New England
rolled the Titans with ease racking up the score to view as 35-14 while
enjoying yet another trip to the AFC Championship marking it the seventh
straight year in the big game. Witnessing the Steelers drop their contest to
the upstart Jaguars who dropped 45 points to roll in steel-town, concern may
have entered the mind of Belichick knowing how sound of a defense they employ;
now the offense was picking up steam. The Jaguars came as advertised for most
of the contest with an improved offensive attack and a powerful defense; they
took the lead into the fourth quarter. But once again Tom Brady found a way to
muster his magic making sound plays when it mattered most. New England once
again was going to the Super Bowl to defend their title this time against the
Philadelphia Eagles.
It was difficult to imagine a Super Bowl topping the one from a year ago,
but this game was filled with excitement from start to finish. The Eagles game
plan right out the gates was to attack and not let their foot off the gas.
Taking an early lead to end the first quarter, New England found themselves
trailing by a score of 9-3. While the second quarter had its share of big
plays, one that might have gone for massive yardage was a Danny Amendola pass
to Tom Brady that he was unable to haul in. Capitalizing on the change of
possession, the Eagles found a way to again drive the field this time seeing
former Patriot LeGarrette Blount scamper into the endzone taking a 15-3 lead.
Finding a way to claw their way back, the Pats closed in on the lead with a
James White touchdown to make the score 15-12 in favor of the Eagles. With 38
seconds remaining in the first half, the Eagles executed a play the Patriots
tried and failed on earlier. A double reverse to tight end Trey Burton saw Nick
Foles run free and catch the ball for an incredible play on 4th
& 1 to end the half. Not giving up hope and being the best in-game
adjusting team in the NFL, the Patriots came out in the second half firing and
executing to perfection. While Brady found Gronkowski and Hogan for touchdowns
the Eagles found a way to match that production with a score of their own. With
just under five minutes left in the game, the Patriots took the lead by one
point again determined to comeback from earlier in-game falters. Much like the
season began, and continued, the Patriots defense allowed their opponents to
move down the field with ease scoring again for yet another lead change - but
with plenty of time for Brady to pull of more late game magic. Unfortunately
for New England, this story book ending wouldn’t go in their favor. With the
Eagles consistent pressure, they were able to get to Brady knock his arm dislodging
the ball and eventually recovering to close out the game. Like all big losses
that leave a stain on players hearts, this one hurt for the Pats and their
fans.
2018 Offseason
Workbook:
Offseason Review:
In finishing the
season 13-3 and narrowly dropping Super Bowl 53, the early stages of the
offseason gave a look on a Patriots club like no other. As most have seen, an
article posted on the national stage described the intricacies of behind the
scenes dealings inside the Patriots organization. An internal struggle was the
phrase that coined the absolute dysfunction of a group that seemed to have
everything on the straight and narrow. It gave perspective to the in-season
Jimmy Garoppolo trade to the 49ers which was a choice taken out of the hands of
Bill Belichick to find a deal and execute. Making uncharacteristic spending
moves adding to the roster, also gave credence to a potential grievance of the
coach to set up the team poorly upon his removal from the club. All information
in this context could’ve been hearsay but gave an interesting perceptive on the
most successful franchise and their long reign over the NFL. While all parties
involved quickly sent out communications via social media claiming no truth to
the article exists and the Patriots will be business as usual for the 2018
season.
With all that drama
surrounding the team, and the inevitable loss of coordinators entertaining head
coaching positions of their own, Matt Patricia accepted a job with the Lions,
while Josh McDaniels was about to be hired on with the Colts. Speculation has
it that a last minute pow-wow occurred between owner Robert Kraft, Coach
Belichick, and Mcdaniels to discuss the future of the team. What came from that
meeting we shall never know, but it prompted McDanials to remove his handshake
acceptance to become the Colts bench boss and return to the same position as
he’s held for the last several years. More speculation occurred after this
confusing change of decision was made, that perhaps McDaniels would succeed
coach Belichick after his contract expires after the 2018 season. While the
general public will never know the internal dealings of this franchise as lips
have been closed tight to protect the sustainment of winning.
Offensively, it’s
clear that Tom Brady still plays at a high level and has no interest in slowing
down anytime soon. Out playing all his backups contracts and watching each one
leave to different clubs, if a potential regression does occur, (normally it
happens quick and without warning), the Patriots could be in some hot water to
find a replacement for the future hall of famer. With that said, Brady still
played at a high level creating numbers that once again topped the league.
Pushing the offensive rank the Pats finished the year being 2nd best
in points for (28.6 PPG), 1st in total yards (394.2 YPG), 2nd
in pass yards (276.1 YPG), and 10th in rush yards (118.1 YPG).
Generating these types of numbers suggests there is little wrong with how the
offense is currently set up. While one concern has Belichick on edge – the
potential retirement of his star tight end Rob Gronkowski. At this point it’s
seen as a down moment unable to shake the sting of the recent Super Bowl loss,
but some believe he could easily walk away from the game. New England is also
known for having a revolving door when it comes to paying talent that produces
in contract years as they feel they can replicate the success elsewhere
-referencing Dion Lewis. While it’s fun to speculate, no one can question Bill
Belichick as he always seems to have the answer to issues which seem glaring at
the time.
The bigger concern for
this club was the overall horrendous play of the Patriots defensive unit.
During the season they housed league low bottom feeder numbers that was
extremely inconsistent with how they’ve played in the past. Adding a player
like Stephon Gilmore should’ve rounded out the squad to perform with greater
execution. The positive was that Matt Patricia was able to stop the bleeding on
some fronts improving their points allowed to rank 5th (18.5 PPG)
and run defense which came back to rank 20th (114.8 YPG) to end the
season. A weaker schedule perhaps inflated these numbers as their most recent
playoff performance suggested the situation was far from corrected. Ranking 29th
in total yards allowed (366.0 YPG), and 30th in pass yards allowed
(251.2 YPG); it’s obvious glaring needs all over this unit exist. While a
favorable statistic shows New England was able to produce a healthy 42 sacks on
the season as a unit, the inability to create turnovers ultimately lead to
their demise. A mere 12 interception and 9 recovered fumbles aren’t near enough
to help keep this unit fresh. While the defensive line could use more depth,
the line backing core could also use a face lift with more top end talent. One
thing we do know, these items will be addressed and the Patriots will again
contend to get back to the big game.
Rostered Free Agents:
Even with the high-end
talent that’s being paid on this roster, New England still enjoys nearly 20
million in cap space which they have Tom Brady to thank for that. Being grossly
underpaid, Brady’s nature to keep his team winning by taking less money should
again help the cause in 2018. With a list of 15 players that will be looking
for new deals names that headline are; Malcolm Butler, Rex Burkhead, Nate Solder,
Dannay Amendola, and Dion Lewis. While its already be placed on record that the
Patriots will not re-sign Lewis, keeping the rest of this top end talent will
be something they will entertain. Starting with Butler, the Patriots knew they
would be in this situation from last offseason as they tried to ship Malcolm in
the Brandin Cooks deal with the Saints. With his market value reaching levels
the Pats more than likely cant afford – average yearly salary equates to 13
million, its probable New England loses him to free agency with no
compensation. Nate Solder is another player that has been uber-productive in
protecting Brady for quite some time. Still at the age of 29, his market value
has peaked to an average yearly base of 13.2 million a year, looks like he will
also hit the open market unless Belichick can get creative. The more feasible
re-sign in this group is wide receiver Danny Amendola. The Pats have already
gone on record saying a deal is in the works as Danny should be a team player
taking a team friendly deal. Burkhead is a very interesting player now that
Lewis will not return to the team. Even with a draft loaded at the position, it
possible New England re-ups the skilled runner to another short deal.
With Rob Gronkowski
contemplating retirement, his cap number is something to also watch. If he
chooses to leave football he would create just over 14 million in space for the
team, a true wait and see. Martellus Bennett is an easy player the Pats could
walk away from with a salary of 6.1 million with no dead money attached is a
clear no brainer cut candidate. As Brandin Cooks enters his last year under
contract, it would be intelligent for Belichick to offer a new deal with a more
favorable number attached to help ease some room, he currently eats 8.5 million
on the cap. Dwayne Allen is another player that could be a cut bait player,
having 5 million in savings with no dead money makes this a slam dunk. Its
clear the Patriots are waiting for Gronk’s final decision before they pull the
trigger on these moves. Outside of that, New England does employ a number of depth
contracts they could do away with if they chose to.
NFL Draft:
With only six picks in
this year’s draft having no 5th and no 7th round
selections, they do house two 2nd round picks having four in total
in the top 95 choices. Its easy to see the cupboards are getting empty and
coach Belichick will be working his magic to regain more ample depth. Picking
late in the first round but eventually have a multitude of ammunition in the
second round, we could potentially see the 31st overall pick being
swapped in a draft-down effort to garner more capital. The needs of this team
are clear as improvements on the defensive side are real. Adding a couple
offensive playmakers in the form of a running back and receiver should be on
their mind, while the defensive retooling should be what defines this draft
class for the Patriots. The one question mark which ADF will be watching with
great anticipation, is how they plan to handle the backup quarterback
situation. Do they use a pick on a rookie signal caller, or do they attack that
in free agency? Should be very interesting.
Overall for 2018:
While the Patriots
steam roll through the regular season, a changing of the guard should take
place in the next couple seasons. As much as we believe Tom Brady is a cyborg
and could potentially play forever (jokes), it will eventually come to an end.
As that time comes, how Belichick sets up this franchise for sustainable
success starts with this offseason and this draft. Unless by some magical
conjunction owner and coach can put aside their differences (if the story is
true), this could be the last year we see the greatest coach in NFL history on
the sidelines in Foxborough, and if so, what a great run they enjoyed.
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