PLACE YOUR BETS!!!
WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFFS!! ADF finished the 2017
NFL regular season hovering around the .500 mark for point spread picks. ADF
did finish in the black when it came to money earned for the season, even
though we had to cover our losses for Weeks 16 & 17! Entering 2018 and
gearing up for the playoffs, we look to dominate the spread to earn those last
dollars from the NFL season picks. Follow me and we’ll get you that money. Good
Luck!
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Week 17 Point Spread
Record: 8-8 (.500)
Season Point Spread
Record: 126-130 (.492)
WILDCARD PLAYOFFS –
Predictions (Projected odds makers @ JAN.5.2018 – 12:00PM EST)
Saturday Jan.6.2018
Tennessee
@ Kansas City (Favorite)
Westgate -8.5
Caesar’s -8.5
William Hill -8.5
Wynn -9
CG -8.5
Unibet -7.5
SportSelect -8.5
Welcome to Wildcard
Weekend!! To kick off the slate of wildcard games, the Titans travel to Kansas
City to face off against the Chiefs as a big underdog. The Titans took care of
business last week winning their contest verse the Jaguars in uninspired fashion.
Tennessee will be without DeMarco Murray in this one, as he is hobbled with a
knee injury making it impossible to go. This might be a blessing in disguise
for the Titans as they get to see Derek Henry take on the lead role for the second
straight week. The Titans season wasn’t anything over the top as most expected,
as Marcus Mariota definitely took a giant step backward in his progression in
development. This Titan team is built to run the ball with subsequent trickle-down
effect, assisting the pass game opening up the play action, this hasn’t been
the case consistently this season. Mariota has struggled mightily posting only
three games with two touchdown passes and two games going over the 300 yard
passing mark. For the first time in his career, Marcus has posted a negative TD-INT
ratio followed by all statistics being career lows. The drop off in total
rushing yards from 2016 to 2017 for the Titans was evident, as they dropped eleven
spots from 3rd overall to 15th. The Titans defense
remained virtually the same in most statistical categories from a year ago,
with exception of the fantastic play of second year player Kevin Byard. The
Titans will have to be on point and perfect to walk out of Arrowhead with a
win.
The Kansas City Chiefs
should count themselves lucky to be hosting a playoff game in 2017 as their
season began with much success, and was almost completely derailed with inept
play and a massive losing streak. Having the ability to write the ship, the
Chiefs ended the season at 10-6 winning the AFC West crown. The Chiefs still
possess a top flight offensive unit ranking them 5th in the NFL in
total offense. Rookie spark plug – Kareem Hunt literally ran away with the NFL
rushing title beating out Todd Gurley by 22 yards. This might be the last ride
for Alex Smith wearing the Chief Red, as he’ll want to make the most of what
could be a long playoff run. When Kansas City is clicking on offense they are a
very difficult team to stop. With Tyreek Hill taking the top off of defenses,
the sound running of Kareem Hunt, and the steady play of all world Tight End
Travis Kelce, teams will be forced to pick their poison on who they intend to
remove from the game. Defensively, the Chiefs unit is prone to inept play at
times allowing teams to generate chuck plays and finding the endzone. Though it
seems Coach Reid has corrected some issues that plagued the defense in recent
weeks, making them more opportunistic and generating turnovers. The Chiefs offense
should dictate the pace of the game, while the defense should be able to pressure
Mariota into many mistakes. This should be the only lopsided contest of the
weekend! KC covers the spread @ -8.5 TEN 22 KC 21 (L)
Atlanta
@ LA Rams (Favorite)
Westgate -6
Caesar’s -6
William Hill -6
Wynn -5.5
CG -6
Unibet -5.5
SportSelect -6.5
Last year’s Super Bowl
runner up (the Falcons); take their talents to Los Angeles in what looks to be
one of the best matches on wildcard weekend. The Falcons knew they had to
basically run the table in the final three weeks of the season to find
themselves in the show trying to get back to the promise land. Atlanta has underwhelmed
this season essentially crashing back down to earth on the offensive side of
the ball. Matt Ryan endured one of his worst seasons as a pro, as the Steve
Sarkisian system didn’t resonate well with Matty Ice. The Falcons still possess
top flight talent offensively, and can step toe to toe with any team in the
NFL. Atlanta will have to generate a solid run attack against the Rams on
Saturday if they have any hopes in winning this game. Devonta Freeman &
Tevin Coleman should have a heavy workload to take pressure off of Ryan.
Defensively, the Falcons are an improved unit dialing out pressure while laying
big hits in attempts to generate turnovers. Coach Quinn is very close to
replicating his defensive unit from his days in Seattle as the Falcons are a
solid bunch. Enduring the long travel to Los Angeles could offer fatigue for
the Falcons as this game wears on. Atlanta does have upside in the fact that
they have been under playoff pressure before, counts for a lot. The experience from
last year Super Bowl run could be the elixir the Falcons need to get past a
fresh Rams squad. With that, Steve Sarkisian will need to have a masterful game
plan executed to perfection if the Falcons want to keep their playoff run
alive.
A season for the ages
as potential Coach of the Year - Sean McVay, rode into town taking over a
talented Rams team and provided direction and youthful energy to spark one of
the best turnaround seasons in NFL history. There’s little the Rams don’t do
well on both sides of the ball. Offensively, led by all-star running back Todd
Gurley, the Rams set up the play action will ease allowing Jared Goff to find
his plethora of talented wide receivers open consistently. Defensively, the
Rams are led by Wade Phillips and his no nonsense approach with constant
pressure and sound back end play. Jared Goff will have to allow his emotions to
calm early, thus to not over think and create unnecessary turnovers. This will
be the Rams game to lose as fundamentally they are the better team. With that
said, the Falcons experience and game plan defensively, could potentially
confuse and rattle young Goff into uncharacteristic mistakes. The key for the
Rams will be generating points while controlling the clock and not allowing a
shootout to commence. LA is definitely able to come back if playing from
behind, but wouldn’t be a favorable situation for a team experiencing playoffs
for the first time in 13 years. ADF believes the Rams will come out victorious
in this one but will be tighter then Vegas indicates. LAR doesn’t cover the spread @ -6 ATL 26 LAR 13 (W)
Sunday Jan.7.2018
Buffalo
@ Jacksonville (Favorite)
Westgate -8.5
Caesar’s -9
William Hill -8.5
Wynn -8
CG -8
Unibet -7.5
SportSelect -8.5
Nobody circles the
wagons like the Buffalo Bills! WOW, is all we can say after witnessing the Cincinnati
Bengals and Andy Dalton become a national treasure in the town of Buffalo. As
the Bills playoff hopes rested on a 4th and 12 play, Dalton threw a
perfect strike to Tyler Boyd getting more than enough for the first down and
producing after the catch finding his way into the endzone, ending the longest
playoff drought in professional sports, WOW! The Bills took care of business to
find themselves in this situation finishing off the Miami Dolphins with ease,
as the team sat and viewed the magic from the visitor’s locker room. The
Buffalo Bills are far from perfect, but have great pieces and should continue to
build under Coach McDermott and GM Brandon Beane. This contest will test the
resolve of the Bills as they face off against the 2nd best defense in the NFL.
To make matters worse, LeSean McCoy was carted off the field in agony with what
looked to be a severe ankle injury. Without Shady it’s difficult to envision
the Bills offense generating much of a threat. On the bright side, it appears
Shady is doing everything in his power to suit up for this game, and ADF
believes he will be out there on Sunday. The viewership shouldn’t sleep on
recently added (practice squad) backup running back Marcus Murphy. The 3rd
year pro was able to generate positive plays against the Dolphins averaging 5.9
yards per carry. Shady will be at less than 100% where Murphy could potentially
help keep the run active. Tyrod Taylor should do what he does best in extending
plays verses a relentless pass rush, and taking care of the ball (only 4
interceptions this season). Defensively the Bills could easily compete with the
Jaguars offense, provided they can stuff the run game with some efficiency. If
they force Blake Bortles to beat them, the Cinderella story could last another
week.
The Jaguars are back
in the post season for the first time since 2008 and look to cause damage. One
large headline for this week’s match against the Bills has former Bills bench
boss Doug Marrone leading his new squad against the team he abandoned years
ago, you can’t make this stuff up. Under Marone, the Jaguars have solidified a
defensive unit that may rival some of the best of all time. Leading the NFL in
sacks the team became adequately nicknamed ‘Sacksonville’. The Jaguars are a fierce,
relentless front seven that thrives on speed and sound positional play. As
strong as the front of Jacksonville is, the back end is the best in the league.
Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye have become the best duo, as each can man their own separate
island allowing the Jags pass rush to get to the quarterback. Recent tape of
Jaguars games (specifically verses San Francisco), has exposed weaknesses in
the Jaguars defense that opens the door to potential big plays. Blake Bortles
will have to be on point and efficient not providing the Bills with extra opportunities
to generate points. The game plan should be simple for Marrone as he intends to
exploit the Bills leaky run defense with the league’s best rushing attack. Also,
Jacksonville seems to have found gold in undrafted rookie Keelan Cole. His big
play ability should keep Buffalo at bay not allowing them to stack the box in
hopes to shutdown Leonard Fournette. The inexperience from both teams should
provide mistakes in a game that could view as closer than people expect. It wouldn’t
be out of the question to see the Bills walk into Everbank field and steal a
win. This game could be tight. JAX doesn’t cover the spread @ -9 BUF 3 JAX 10 (W)
Carolina
@ New Orleans (Favorite)
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -6.5
CG -6.5
Unibet -5.5
SportSelect -6.5
Capping off Wildcard
Weekend is the Panthers traveling to New Orleans to face off against the
Saints. It’s important to note that Carolina has dropped both games this season
to the Saints, and should be in tough verses the offensive powerhouse. Cam
Newton will have to be on point finding holes in a very much improved Saints
secondary. The Panthers will have to generate any sort of run game to keep the
ball out of the hands of Drew Brees and company. The Panthers will have to
exploit the talents of super rookie Christian McCaffrey in the pass game in
hopes he can take over the middle of the field. Defensively the Panthers still
view as a bend but don’t break unit that has become prone to giving up plays at
the wrong time. Like most games, turnovers usually dictate the outcome, but
this game that will be 100% truth. If Cam can generate a near perfect game
finding the endzone with regularity, the Saints could have a difficult time
matching step for step. With a record of 11-5, the Panthers don’t view as a
team with killer instinct able to crush their opponents with ease. ADF is
curious to see the demeanor of Cam Newton as the game wears on. If they find themselves
down on the scoreboard how will Newton again react? Should be interesting.
The New Orleans Saints
began the year 0-2 amidst media scrutiny vying for the team to begin the
rebuild. All the noise fell on deaf ears as Payton instantly revamped both the
offensive and defensive schemes to play to their strengths. Backed behind the
fantastic running of Mark Ingram and rookie All-Pro Alvin Kamara, the Saints
looked masterful going on an eight game winning streak. The Saints will host
the Panthers knowing they have dominated the point of attack in both contests
against them. Drew Brees has clearly lost a step this season but continues to
produce just enough to keep this high powered unit moving. The game plan will
be as it has been for the Saints all season, run hard with Ingram, change of
pace with Kamara, exploit play action as the run game dictates. Defensively,
New Orleans will have a challenge which ADF believes they will overcome. Cam
Newton still is a top flight quarterback in the NFL and can produce large
numbers in any contest. Shutting down Cam’s read option and ability to extend
plays with his feet will be very important for the Saints in this contest.
Backed by the Who-Dat Nation in the Big Easy, the Saints should be able to
close out the Panthers season on Sunday Night. NWO covers the spread @ -6.5 CAR 26 NWO 31 (L)
Wildcard Round Record: 2-2 (.500)
Wildcard Round Record: 2-2 (.500)
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