As the fantasy season has come to an end
its important to evaluate each position gaining understanding of their current value.
Current season value and previous season finishes are great evaluating factors
to where each player should reside for the upcoming season. This evaluation is
based on a 16-game fantasy season PPR custom format. Let’s review!
2017
Top 10 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks:
Russell Wilson (SEA)
2017 Points: 361.4 | 2016 Points: 280.47 | Net Gain/Loss: +80.93
(Rank #1)
Around week 3 of the NFL season, Russell Wilson took off and never
looked back. He was forced to put the Seahawks offense on his back as the team
possessed no run game and couldn’t block for him in the pass game. Wilson
became the top point producing player in all of fantasy football in 2017 beating
out the likes of Todd Gurley by 0.37 points. ADF was a Wilson fan, but gained
even more respect as his play was electric and unfathomable at times. With the
lack of assistance offensively, Wilson put up a few stinkers that may have cost
owners a few games, including the semifinals. A season like one just witnessed
for Wilson is never a positive, as regression or injury is almost a certainty
if he has to put in the same effort next year. The Seahawks may be in somewhat
of a re-tinkering, as they have a lot of issues to fix. Still a very large
positive is the 80-extra fantasy points he was able to generate on a team with
limited options. Wilson will again be a top commodity in 2018, but providing
Wilson with better options especially in the run game should take his points
down slightly.
Carson Wentz (PHI)
2017 Points: 323.77 | 2016 Points: 213.53 | Net Gain/Loss: +110.24
(Rank #2)
League MVP was a viable option for Carson until he went down with a
season ending ACL injury in week 14. Carson Wentz was the biggest steal in the
draft at the quarterback position, but more than likely was a wavier wire
addition providing fantasy gold to all his owners. The second-year pivot was
lighting up the league as the Eagles brass provided him with multiple options
to generate the offensive power and punch. Wentz displayed fantastic
progression in year two as his reads were seamless and on point with regularity.
His escape-ability can easily be compared to the likes of the great Aaron
Rodgers, as he can extend any play with his legs avoiding the rush with ease.
Losing two games to injury, Carson would’ve easily stood on top of the fantasy point
producers but alas fell short. The future looks bright for Carson and the
Eagles, but the lateness of his injury creates risk that he may not be ready
for the beginning of the 2018 season. He will still be a top pick in the
upcoming draft.
Alex Smith (KC)
2017 Points: 323.23 | 2016 Points: 229.33 | Net Gain/Loss: +93.9
(Rank #3)
Alex Smith definitely turned heads to start the season as the plan
to draft another QB (Mahomes), to push Smith to produce at a higher level was
working to perfection. As the season wore on teams figured out how to defend
the high-octane offense in Kansas City ultimately making Alex look human once
again. With that said, Smith produced a career high in fantasy points gaining
almost 100 more then last years totals. The biggest concern for Smith is his
future with the Chiefs and where he could land next season. Andy Reid drafted
Mahomes in a trade up in the 2017 knowing they wanted more firepower and youth
at the position. Smith will be a hot commodity in the offseason but might be
hard-pressed to replicate his numbers as he could be on another rebuilding
squad. His situation should be vastly different and its unclear on where you
would target him next season. There should be no question that his numbers will
go down in 2018 unless he finds himself on a team that possesses high end
talent.
Tom Brady (NE)
2017 Points: 314.03 | 2016 Points: 290.87 | Net Gain/Loss: +23.16 (Rank
#4)
The great Tom Brady again showed his worth as he gained a slight
increase on his point totals from last season. Tom started the season lighting
up his opponents as the Patriots looked to be worth the price of admission. As
the season wore on, the Pats struggled to find a consistent grove to generate
points at a high level, even though they continued to win. The greatest concern
for Brady moving forward is that he is beginning to show signs of wear and age
as he struggled immensely to produce at a level we have become accustomed to.
Brady had a ceiling of 18 fantasy points and a floor of 6 in his last four
games of the season. ADF is definitely raising the red-flag for the 2018 season
as a great marker is the last five games played to help understand the
potential for the next year. With that being said, Brady and Belichick are
geniuses in recreating the success they have had in the past. His draft stock
should fall with the infusion of youth at the position across the NFL.
Cam Newton (CAR)
2017 Points: 305.57 | 2016 Points: 270.87 | Net Gain/Loss: +34.7
(Rank #5)
The 2017 season could be classified as a success for Cam Newton as
he was able to increase his point totals from the precious year knowing his
average draft position had him ranked at 78. In the eyes of ADF, Newton didn’t
achieve the successes we had expected from him. The Panthers brain trust made a
conscious effort to improve the weaponry on the offensive side in drafting
super rookie Christian McCaffrey and potential spark plug Curtis Samuel. Newton
did provide fantastic games this year for his owners, but disappeared in
stretches leaving points off the board. All the blame isn’t on Cam as he has
played very well with no true resemblance of a run game. With where you drafted
Newton he definitely provided the value required to move your team far. With
the news of an ownership change coming in Carolina, the fundamentals of how the
team is built could also change. ADF firmly believes the Panthers brass will
continue to provide Cam with more weapons in the draft and free agency, again
making him a top Quarterback in 2018
Kirk Cousins (WAS)
2017 Points: 294.87 | 2016 Points: 320.5 | Net Gain/Loss: -25.63
(Rank #6)
It wasn’t a surprise to ADF that Kirk Cousins regressed this year as
all his receivers he built a solid rapport with had left the club. It took
quite some time for the Redskins to organize and build game plans that were
conducive in generating top flight numbers. A major bright spot for the Skins
was the breakout season for running back Chris Thompson. His superb play lifted
Cousins numbers as he frequently found Thompson out of the backfield in chuck
gains and touchdowns. Kirk bet on himself once again playing under the
franchise tag showing the NFL world he is a starting caliber quarterback.
Moving forward there may be some uncertainty of where Kirk will play in 2018,
as he may find the highest bidder for his services, which might not equate to
fantasy/team success. ADF is a believer in what Cousins can bring to an
organization, but temper the expectations as he is prone to bad games that can
derail your weeks. It will be interesting to see where he lands.
Ben Roethlisberger
(PIT)
2017 Points: 293.4 | 2016 Points: 283.7 | Net Gain/Loss: +9.7 (Rank
#7)
This could be the last hooray for Big Ben as he has made claims that
he is ready for retirement before the season started. Ben knew the talent this
Steelers team had, and realized he had a great kick at the can to compete for
another Super Bowl title. Ben played at a very high-level post week 10, as
Pittsburgh looked unstoppable at times. Even though Roethlisberger gained a
slim 10 points to last years total, he provided great value down the stretch to
get you far in the playoffs. His value could be null and void for 2018 as its
very possibly he rides into the sunset and announces his retirement from
football.
Jared Goff (LAR)
2017 Points: 285.9 | 2016 Points: 52.9 | Net Gain/Loss: +233 (Rank #8)
Another up and coming star at the quarterback position is the number
one pick in the 2016 NFL draft. Its looking more and more that coach McVay with
Goff could be a marriage that should last a very long time. McVay has proven he
is one of the brightest young minds in the league, exploiting opposing defenses
and progressing a quarterback people had pegged as a potential bust after last
season. Of the top producing quarterbacks this season, Goff was able to
increase his point totals by over 230 fantasy points, incredible. The Rams look
to be the real deal and will continue to build their roster to be a competitor
for many years to come. Goff is just starching the surface under McVay, and
there should be no question his numbers will increase in 2018. He will be a top
pick at the position next season.
Matthew Stafford (DET)
2017 Points: 270.03 | 2016 Points: 301.93 | Net Gain/Loss: -31.9
(Rank #9)
The Lions season started with great potential as Stafford was poised
to have a monster season, it sure didn’t turn out that way. Matthew failed his
owners failing to generate the same numbers from the previous season dropping
almost 32 total points. Stafford was an average player at the best times this
year, but the blame can’t be all on his shoulders. The Lions didn’t correct the
offensive line and the running game, as all the pressure began to weigh on
Stafford to produce. Moving to 2018, the Lions will have to correct a multitude
of issues to conceivably increase the draft stock of Stafford. We all know he
has the ability, but he requires a better supporting cast to increase his
totals.
Dak Prescott (DAL)
2017 Points: 268.93 | 2016 Points: 305.43 | Net Gain/Loss: -36.5
(Rank #10)
Losing Zeke Elliott proved that Dak is a product of the system the
Cowboys run. Prescott was unable to replicate his fabulous rookie season as
teams dared Dallas to pass the ball to beat them. Dak showed early on that he
was worth value for his 94th ADP (average draft position), but faded
as Elliott watched from the games home. Adding to the dismal season was the
inept play calling and lack of play making receivers on the roster. Looking to
2018, as long as Zeke can keep his hands out of the cookie jar, and Jerry Jones
can provide adequate support alongside Dez Bryant, Dak should be able to
rebound and produce bigger numbers then we saw from his rookie season. The
potential is still very high and Dak will become a fantastic value pick in
2018!
2017
Top 5 Failed Value Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers
2017 Points: 153.43 | 2016 Points: 430.5 | Net Gain/Loss: -277.07
(2016 Rank #1)
One of the biggest failed seasons in 2017 went to Aaron Rodgers.
This wasn’t on Aaron as his year was derailed due to injury as he missed 9
games to a broken collarbone. The Packers missed the playoffs showing how
important Aaron is to the organization. This isn’t a major concern moving into
2018 as he should be healthy and ready to role. Expect Rodgers to still be the
top pick at quarterback in 2018.
Matt Ryan (ATL)
2017 Points: 224.83 | 2016 Points: 397.5 | Net Gain/Loss: -172.67
(2016 Rank #2)
Most predicted a down grade for Ryan before the season started but
few would’ve thought he would’ve fallen off a cliff this season. Losing Kyle
Shanahan to San Francisco proved Matty-Ice requires a top-flight play caller to
exploit his talents. Losing more than 170 points gives little faith that he
will get back to his 2016 numbers next season. Things are trending downward for
Matt Ryan. With the talent levels of young throwers coming to form, Ryan will
have lower value in 2018.
Drew Brees (NWO)
2017 Points: 263.3 | 2016 Points: 382.6 | Net Gain/Loss: -119.3
(2016 Rank #3)
The great Drew Brees didn’t have the season that most had thought he
would’ve had in 2017, as the Saints changed the offensive scheme to be heavily
favorable toward the run. Brees is in the twilight of his career and it showed
in many games this season. Drew eclipsed the 20-point mark in only four games
this season while generating under 15 points in seven contests, not a good sign
for the future. Netting a loss of almost 120 fantasy points Brees is also on
the decline for value for 2018. Adding to that, its very possible Brees could
play for another squad next season as the Saints are strapped against the cap.
Could be very interesting to see what his outlook will be in 2018.
Andrew Luck (IND)
2017 Points: 0.0 | 2016 Points: 345.43 | Net Gain/Loss: -345.43
(2016 Rank #4)
The lost season for Andrew Luck due to a shoulder injury left the
Colts scrambling to generate much of anything this season. The biggest concern
moving forward is whether that throwing shoulder will ever be the same and if
Luck can return to elite level play at all. The rumor mill is out suggesting
Luck’s career could be over as injuries like his are near impossible to fully
overcome. The football world hopes he can return as he was a great player in
this league. Perhaps the Colts now understand the importance of having a sound
offensive line to protect the franchise quarterback. 2018 is fully unknown for
Andrew Luck as question marks remain large.
Derek Carr (OAK)
2017 Points: 215.93 | 2016 Points: 303.23 | Net Gain/Loss: -87.3
(2016 Rank #5)
Derek Carr and the Raiders took a massive step in the wrong
direction this season and it wouldn’t be far-fetched to suggest Carr was playing
hurt for most of the year. Despite playing in every game this year, Carr found himself
dropping almost 90 fantasy points in virtually the same offense as a year ago. This
Raiders team is very concerning as the decline of Amari Cooper adds to the
question marks for 2018. ADF is a big fan of Carr and believes this year was an
anomaly and the Raiders will be able to regroup and find their stride for the
following season. Still red flags can be lifted as it stands right now.
2018
Top Potential Quarterbacks:
Deshaun Watson (HOU)
2017 Points: 196.53 | 2018 Projected Points: 380-420
Unquestionably the rookie of the year award would’ve went to the
dynamic, electric Deshaun Watson. As he took over in week 1 for Tom Savage,
Watson was on a record-breaking pace and improving in every contest. His
ability to progress and correct his in-game mistakes was something not seen
form a rookie signal caller in quite some time – if ever. Watson took the NFL
by storm terrorizing defenses, averaging 28 fantasy points per game in the
seven contests he played. If Watson didn’t suffer a season ending ACL injury in
practice heading into week 8, that pace had him possibly achieving 450 fantasy
points if not more, unheard of for a rookie. The outlook is somewhat scary for
Watson as he will be coming back from his second ACL tear, this time in his
other knee. Deshaun is still young and could very well come back stronger then
before. Either way, the potential is off the charts for this young man and the
Houston Texans. If Watson is healthy he could be a top selection in 2018.
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
2017 Points: 75.07 | 2018 Projected Points: 280-350
The surprise trade of Jimmy G to the 49ers at the NFL trade deadline,
is proving to be a fantastic move for the rebuilding franchise. Garoppolo is a
perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan and his offensive genius, as they have already
turned heads these last five games. Jimmy G hasn’t set the world on fire in
terms of fantasy points in the games he’s played averaging a mere 15 points per
game. The potential in what this offense can be is the most exciting for the
future. With high draft picks and a legitimate option now at starting
quarterback, Shanahan can get to work in creating/molding this team the way it
will be most conducive to his abilities. Expect the 49ers to be very active in
the free agent market for wide receivers as they will likely use their draft
picks to help solidify the defense. As it stands, things are looking up in San Francisco
as the future looks extremely bright. This team isn’t as far off as they
appeared, now that Jimmy G the once Patriot heir to the thrown is manning the
ship in the bay. 2018 draft value could remain favorable with great production down
the line.
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
2017 Points: 121.77 | 2018 Projected Points: 250-280
A very interesting young prospect for the 2018 season is Mitchell
Trubisky. Pegged not ready to start at the beginning of the 2017, in favor of
free agent addition bust Mike Glennon, Mitchell learned and waited for his
opportunity. The Bears on paper aren’t as terrible as they seem, they just
require better pieces at skilled positions, especially at wide receiver. Most
impressive as the season wore on, was the progression ability in Trubisky’s
reads on the field at time finding his 4th and 5th options,
very rare for a rookie thrower. Most inexperienced quarterbacks will look off
one or two reads and find their check down as quick as possible to try and make
a completion. Providing better talent at wide receiver will enhance Mitchell’s
growth as he possesses all the talent and physical ability to get the job done.
Trubisky played in eleven contests averaging 11.07 fantasy points per game in
2017, something that will definitely increase with practice reps and increased team
talent. A lot will have to change for the 2018 season for Trubisky to be on the
radar for fantasy football – and if they do, he could provide great matchup
play value with high potential upside.
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