NFL Week 12 Point Spread Picks

PLACE YOUR BETS!!! ADF got back on track during yesterday’s Thanksgiving matchups and look to continue this weekend. ADF is housing a record above .500 as we try to run the table on the reaming games. Large spreads and interesting matchups are full slated to entertain. ADF has made money to stay in the plus category and that will continue!  Let’s make some money. Good Luck!

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*Note: To view Thanksgiving Games evaluations see – Thanksgiving Special NFL Week 12 Point Spread Picks!  

Week 11 Point Spread Record: 5-9 (.357)

Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Point Spread Record: 2-1 (.667)

Season Point Spread Record:  85-78 (.521)

NFL WEEK 12 – Predictions (Projected odds makers @ NOV.24.2017 – 12:00PM EST)

Sunday Nov.26.2017

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (Favorite)

Westgate -9.5

Caesar’s -9.5

William Hill -9.5

Wynn -9.5

CG -10

Unibet -10.5

SportSelect -9.5

The Atlanta Falcons got back on track in a very entertaining game vs the Seahawks last Monday Night. The Falcons remain the same club that doesn’t possess that killer instinct that is needed for a Super Bowl caliber winner. Getting off to a big lead vs the Hawks, they again allowed their opponent to claw their way back into the game, and were lucky to come away with the win. That being said, we did see a much improved offensive plan and execution from Coordinator Sarkisian and Matt Ryan. With Devonta Freeman still sidelined in concussion protocol, Coleman will get the majority of the reps at tailback (not really a bad thing). As for the Tampa Bay Bucs – they have a two game winning streak at the hands of journeyman Ryan Fitzpartick. Not surprisingly, Fitz-magic has again found a way to be productive in yet another offense trying to keep the Bucs slim playoff hopes alive. Traveling to Atlanta will be a very difficult task, but Fitzpatrick should be able to move the ball on the Falcons. Atlanta has only two victories above 10 points this season, and I question if they can get it done this week.

ATL doesn’t cover the spread @ -10 TB 20 ATL 34 (L)

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (Favorite)

Westgate -8

Caesar’s -8

William Hill -8.5

Wynn -8

CG -8.5

Unibet -8.5

SportSelect -8.5

As bad as the Browns have been this season the lone bright spot has been the play of their defense. Ranking 8^th best in the NFL they have found ways to hold their opponents close, eventually giving into exhaustion as the offense provides no support to help the cause. The Bengals have the worst offense in the NFL ranking 32^nd overall, 29^th in the pass, and 32^nd in the run. The only advantage Cincinnati possesses in this contest is the home field advantage. This could most definitely be the week the Browns get in the win column as Vegas tries to bait the betting public into taking more than a touchdown spread on the Bungles. This will be the week the Browns get their first win. CIN doesn’t cover the spread @ -8.5 CLE 16 CIN 30 (L)  

Tennessee (Favorite) @ Indianapolis

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -3

William Hill -3

Wynn -3

CG -3

Unibet -4.5

SportSelect -3.5

The Titans coming off and embarrassing loss to the Steelers last Thursday Night have had a lot of time to reflect and prepare for the lowly Colts. Ranking middle of the pack in all offensive and defensive categories they look prime to rebound and stay with the Jacksonville Jaguars atop the AFC South. I fully expect Tennessee to run the ball more effectively protecting Mariota from the obvious disaster of playing from behind and throwing to win the game, something he definitely isn’t ready for. Even though the Colts record sits at 3-7 they have competed in almost every game with Jacoby Brissett running the show. I fully expect the Colts to give the Titans all they can handle and try to derail their playoff aspirations. The Colts do rank near the bottom in every statistical category and may be playing out the string. Tennessee should have more than enough to get by in this one. TEN covers the spread @ -3 TEN 20 IND 16 (W)

Buffalo @ Kansas City (Favorite)

Westgate -10

Caesar’s -10

William Hill -10

Wynn -9.5

CG -10

Unibet -9.5

SportSelect -9.5

The Buffalo debacle is what we are calling last week’s performance vs the Chargers. The conspiracy theorist would suggest the Bills brass realizes the value of their draft picks to lose a few more games would be in their benefit to help secure a top flight quarterback in the upcoming draft. With that, they see the Chiefs beginning to falter and could be banking on they possibly of them missing the post season increasing the value of the first round pick they received from Kansas City. A lot of things would have to work in the Bills favor for this to happen but from the decision McDermott made to play Nate Peterman has to be somewhat calculated. Reinstalling Tyrod as he Bills starter this week will enhance the large chip resident on Taylor’s shoulders perhaps prompting him to play better. The Chiefs still possess all top 10 offensive stats where their defense can’t seem to get out of their own way. Playing in the comfortable confines of Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City will try and get back on track to put one in the win column on the strength of their run game. The Bills have given up 664 rushing yards in the last three games and provide no confidence they have corrected this issue. Taylor should provide more offense backed with Shady McCoy - still the most effective Bill on the field, keeping this game closer than the spread suggests. KC doesn’t cover the spread @ -10 BUF 16 KC 10 (W)        

Miami @ New England (Favorite)

Westgate -16

Caesar’s -16.5

William Hill -16.5

Wynn -16.5

CG -16.5

Unibet -16.5

SportSelect -16.5

The Patriots continue to stack wins like every other season once again proving the regular season is simply a formality for mighty New England to get into the playoffs and challenge for the Super Bowl. The Patriots defense still ranks 32^nd in the NFL but have shown great improvements and becoming a bend but don’t break unit. The Patriots have allowed a fantastic 12.5 points allowed over their last 6 games, not so coincidently winning all six. The Dolphins are absolutely terrible offensively under Jay Cutler as he continues to deal with his rib injury and added a concussion from last week’s game vs the Bucs. Matt Moore might get the start in this one if Cutler can’t pass protocol. This game should result as a mere tune up for the Patriots to try new schemes and plays to perfect the way this team needs to move forward as the playoffs approach. NE covers the spread @ -16.5 MIA 17 NE 35 (W)     

Carolina (Favorite) @ NY Jets

Westgate -5

Caesar’s -5.5

William Hill -5

Wynn -4.5

CG -5

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -4.5

The Panthers come off the bye and travel to New York to face the Jets who at 4-6 are still alive in the playoff race. Carolina looked fantastic two weeks ago on Monday Night Football taking apart the helpless Miami Dolphins. Cam and company should’ve had plenty of time to get rested and find timing to their other receivers (Russell Shepard), as they make their push to the post season. The Carolina defense is one of the top units in the NFL and I fully expect them to come out in the one. The Jets are also coming off the bye and will look to attempt to keep up with the high flying Panthers. The Jets rank in the 20’s in most statistical categories and should find it difficult to do much of anything on the Panthers. Even though Carolina has travel miles to deal with they should have no issues in this one. CAR covers the spread @ -5 CAR 35 NYJ 27 (W)   

Chicago @ Philadelphia (Favorite)

Westgate -13.5

Caesar’s -13.5

William Hill -13.5

Wynn -13.5

CG -13.5

Unibet -13.5

SportSelect -13.5

What else can you say about the Eagles expect “Fly Eagle Fly”! This is one of the best all-around teams in the NFL to date. The execution on offense is superb and the defense is beginning to come together. Having another home date with a favorable schedule coming the only thing stopping the Eagles will be themselves. The Bears travel to Philly in hopes to just compete in a game that no one expects them to even be a part of. Chicago still houses a very good defense, but with the writing on the wall that the season is all but a wrap, this game should be over by the 3^rd quarter. This game should in fact act as a tune up for the Eagles to figure out scheme and refine their playbook.  PHI covers the spread @ 13.5 CHI 3 PHI 31 (W)  

Seattle (Favorite) @ San Francisco

Westgate -6.5

Caesar’s -6.5

William Hill -6.5

Wynn -6.5

CG -6.5

Unibet -7.5

SportSelect -6.5

The Seahawks travel to San Fran in what is really a must win game for them after dropping last week’s contest to the Falcons. Russell Wilson gained even more respect for his fabulous effort on Monday Night as he literally was a one man show. Often Wilson found himself running for his life as his offensive line did him no favours. This game should be a little easier on Russell as he’ll be able to find time vs the 49ers defense which ranks 27^th in the NFL, and is playing out the string and preparing for the upcoming draft. They might put on a show early on for the home town faithful, but there is no question the Hawks will go home happy after this match. SEA covers the spread @ -6.5 SEA 24 SF 13 (W) 

New Orleans @ LA Rams (Favorite)

Westgate -2.5

Caesar’s -2.5

William Hill -2.5

Wynn -2.5

CG -2.5

Unibet -2.5

SportSelect -2.5

Without question this should be the game of the week and the highlighted matchup for the afternoon slate of games. The hottest team in the NFL are the New Orleans Saints and they travel to the West Coast to battle a very good Rams team. It’s hard not to like everything about this Saints squad that has improved in all aspects of the game. Offensively they are impossible to stop as their balance with efficiency is done to perfection. Defensive improvement is where the Saints deserve the most credit. They have a unit that has bought in and playing very well after the scheme changed post week two. The Rams had a perfect opportunity last week to prove to the NFL world that they are indeed for real, they failed the test. They were unable to muster much of anything offensively as they Vikings shut down the highest scoring offense in the NFL. Playing the Saints they should be able to rebound and find ways to attack even though they will be without Robert Woods, their most productive receiver. Todd Gurley should get back on track providing assistance to Jared Goff to open up the pass game with better efficiency then we saw last week. A potential shootout is upon us where it’s very difficult to see the Saints drop this one, even with travel miles. LAR doesn't cover the spread @ -2.5 
NWO 20 LAR 26 (L)  

Jacksonville (Favorite) @ Arizona

Westgate -5.5

Caesar’s -4.5

William Hill -5.5

Wynn -5

CG -5

Unibet -4.5

SportSelect -4.5

Even at 7-3 it’s very difficult for ADF to get on board with the Jags as a full blown contender. The defense is the star of this team and should be able to carry them to yet another victory as they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. Recent news that star DB Jalen Ramsey will not play in this one due to and injured hand suffered in Friday’s practice. We should see a small drop off defensively as the back end will have to rely more on AJ Bouye to handle the future Hall of Famer in Larry Fitzgerald. At 4-6 the Cardinals are still in the playoff hunt and would need to take this game to keep that glimmer of hope alive. Playing at home is always a positive for Arizona and I believe they will find a way to compete in this one. The Jags should win but should be closer than the spread indicates.

JAX doesn’t cover the spread @ -5.5 JAX 24 ARZ 27 (W) 

Denver @ Oakland (Favorite)

Westgate -5

Caesar’s -5

William Hill -5

Wynn -5.5

CG -5

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -5.5

The QB carousel continues in Denver as they announced earlier in the week that Paxton Lynch will get the start vs the division rival Oakland Raiders. Denver has become a hot mess on both sides of the ball providing a scapegoat to their troubles reliving talented OC Mike McCoy. Their season is all but a wrap as the pretend to compete while evaluating all the players they employ. Continuing the talk of disappointment, enter the Oakland Raiders. Every aspect of this team has seen regression in 2017 backed by the horrendous play of a defense that was poised to take a step forward. Offensively Derek Carr is having an off year playing behind a top flight offensive line that may be showing signs of wear as their tribulations also continue. Playing in Oakland should give the Raiders the advantage but not like Vegas is trying to convince us of. OAK doesn’t cover the spread @ -5.5 DEN 14 OAK 21 (L)   

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh (Favorite)

Westgate -14

Caesar’s -14

William Hill -14

Wynn -14

CG -14

Unibet -12.5

SportSelect -14.5

What the Steelers have done this season after much up and down play has been fantastic. Posting an 8-2 record they have once again placed themselves atop the AFC and reconfirmed they’re a Super Bowl contender. This offense relies on the fantastic running ability of LeVeon Bell with a perfect supporting cast of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. This biggest non-surprise to ADF has been the play of this defense. Pegged the biggest sleeper in the offseason, they’ve begun to put it all together and are proving it on a weekly basis. Ranking 4^th in the NFL they should feast on Brett Hundley and the Packers offense. Green Bay comes into this game as a massive underdog after showing literally nothing last week at home unable to produce any points on the scoreboard. The NFL schedule makers had a beauty secured in late November, now all for not with Aaron Rodgers holding the clipboard on the sideline. ADF is always very cautious with massive spreads for the Steelers as they tend to play to the level of their opponent. With recent news that JuJu will not play in this contest makes ADF cringe to endorse a multi-touchdown spread. Never the less, playing at home and under the bright lights of prime time, the Steelers love to put on a show, we’ll bite. PIT covers the spread @ -14 GB 28 PIT 31 (L)    

Monday Nov.27.2017

Houston @ Baltimore (Favorite)

Westgate -7

Caesar’s -7

William Hill -7

Wynn -7

CG -7

Unibet -6.5

SportSelect -7.5

Yet another Monday Night Football match that on paper could provide sleepy time syndrome. Both teams are coming off respectable victories from Week 11 and both still have viable playoff aspirations. Offensively both teams are very similar and house a weak passing attack with extreme reliance on the running game. Defensively the edge would have to go to the Ravens as they have had very dominating performances in multiple games this season. In a potential snooze-fest with very average teams, rule of thumb encourages you to take the home team.  Normally ADF would abide, but in this case with a touchdown spread it’s very difficult to see. BAL doesn’t cover the spread @ -7 HOU 16 BAL 23 (L)


Week 12 Record: 7-6 (.538)

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