Week 13 Point Spread Picks

PLACE YOUR BETS!!! The last few weeks have been a struggle, as spreads have been killed late with consistency. For example, last week saw five of our predictions fail within the last couple minutes of each contest. Nevertheless, that is the game of football and we must remain on course, as we still have plenty of opportunity to bring our record back into the positive. With five weeks remaining in the regular season and playoffs ahead – money will be earned and we always look to run the table. Let’s dive into this week’s edition of point spread picks.

 

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ADF Week 12 Record: 5-9 (.357)
@SojashPicks Week 12 Record: 5-9 (.357)
 
ADF 2020 Season Record: 86-91 (.486)
@SojashPicks 2020 Season Record: 83-94 (.469)
 
ADF All-Time Record: 490-489 (.501)
@SojashPicks All-Time Record: 166-157 (.514)
 
 
NFL WEEK 13 – Predictions (Projected odds makers @ Dec.4.2020 – 12:00PM EST) 
 
Sunday Dec.6
 
New Orleans -3 @ Atlanta
The Atlanta Falcons are the worst team in the NFL to predict for or against the spread, as we truly don’t know which club will come out weekly. These teams faced off a mere two weeks ago where Taysom Hill got his first NFL start and will again promote the run heavy approach. Taking travel to Atlanta could be seen as an issue – but we aren’t biting on that one this week.
 
While the Falcons have seen improvement overall on the defensive side of the ball, the Saints will continue to be a force implementing the new run first approach. Julio Jones is likely to miss this contest once again with that hamstring, which will limit the overall production from this offense. The Saints pass rush was far too much for Matt Ryan to overcome and we should see much of the same this week.
ADF Pick: NO -3 NO 21 ATL 16 (W)
@SoJashPick: NO -3 NO 21 ATL 16 (W)
 

Detroit @ Chicago -3
If there was a contest that views as a dart throw, this would be it. The Bears defense crumbled last week in Green Bay, unable to seemingly stop one single drive. With Mitchell Trubisky back behind center for another game, the expectation of poor offensive output is again on the horizon. While Trubisky didn’t look horrible in his return to the field, poor passes filled the highlight reel. For a team who started the season with a 5-1 record, the collapse is nearly underway.
 
For the Lions, enough was enough on Thanksgiving, as the loss to the Texans aided in the decision to relieve the head coach and general manager of their duties. With Darrell Bevell now the interim head coach for the team – the Lions should be geared up with a fresh outlook. Kenny Golladay is again likely to miss this contest with his injured hip but D’Andre Swift is trending in the right direction. While the odds makers are trying to throw support to the home team, this could be a one- or two-point finish.
ADF Pick: DET +3 DET 34 CHI 30 (W)
@SoJashPick: CHI -3 DET 34 CHI 30 (L)


Cleveland @ Tennessee -5.5
The Cleveland Browns have found success this season and are leaning on the ground game to move this offense in the right direction. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have been invaluable to their success and will need to ride them all day long. Facing a Titans club that has been porous in defending the run – Derrick Henry will also be a difficult player to shut down. Forcing Baker Mayfield to be the primary source of offense will be the directive for Tennessee in this one.
 
The Titans on the other hand have seen some level of ups-and-downs this season, but looked fantastic last week against the Colts. The focus for offense clearly runs through Henry, but isn’t limited to the play action pass led by Ryan Tannehill. Seeing just under a touchdown spread is encouraging, however, the bait in taking that spread is also real. The statistic which allows us to feel more comfortable in holding firm on the Titans, is the lack of scoring from the Browns. Cleveland is the lowest scoring club of all current playoff teams – we’ll roll with the Titans with high confidence.
ADF Pick: TEN -5.5 CLE 41 TEN 35 (L)
@SoJashPick: CLE +5.5 CLE 41 TEN 35 (W)


Cincinnati @ Miami -11.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and their fans have suffered a great deal over the years, but last week’s contest showed they will continue to fight. Being six-point underdogs last week – the Bengals showed they are prime to kill spreads late for the remainder of the season. Brandon Allen isn’t a great passer, but good enough to lead a club in garbage time. Having capable wide receivers at their disposal, Allen should be able to find them enough on occasion to keep the game closer than the line indicates.
 
The Dolphins are a team that is moving in the right direction and need to keep winning contests to keep pace with the Bills. Regardless of who plays quarterback for this team on a weekly basis, the offense has generated enough to win games and eat spreads. With that said, it’s very difficult to believe that Miami will run away with this one to cover 12-points, especially with how Allen crushed the betting public last week on six-points. We’ll error on the side of caution.
ADF Pick: CIN +11.5 CIN 7 MIA 19 (L)
@SoJashPick: MIA -11.5 CIN 7 MIA 19 (W)


Jacksonville @ Minnesota -10
In three of the last four contests, the Jaguars have kept spreads within the four-point mark and that could again be the case in Minnesota. While we would like to support the potential of the Jags again moving the ball on a Minnesota team that is far from polished, a Dalvin Cook massive show could be what we are treated to. Kirk Cousins has been very reliable over the second half of the season and will likely feed his receivers with high frequency.
 
The Jaguars are the epitome of failure this season, as the rotation of quarterbacks, teamed with a defense which has been set up for failure – the only real opinion backed by statistic is their late game heroics to kill spreads. James Robinson has been a revelation in this offense and will again be leaned upon to create offense. Mike Glennon looked better than we had anticipated and is pegged to get the start once again. Adding to that, the Vikings have covered 10-points or more only once this season, keep that in mind.
ADF Pick: JAX +10 JAX 24 MIN 27 (W)
@SoJashPick: JAX +10 JAX 24 MIN 27 (W)
 

Las Vegas -8.5 @ NY Jets
The Las Vegas Raiders literally fell flat on their face last week against the Falcons and will have a much easier opponent in the Jets. New York has been the truest definition of a disaster this season and will continue to play out the stretch to earn the first pick in the 2021 draft. The Jets have lost nine games this season by at least eight-points and the Raiders will be looking to take advantage to keep that statistic rolling.
 
The Raiders will be looking to have a giant bounce back this week to keep their playoff hopes alive. Dedication to the ground game will be the focal point to get things moving, but Derek Carr will need to improve on absolutely every aspect to what he did last week. That contest was clearly the anomaly and we should see a dominating performance for a club that has played much better overall this season. Even as nine-points is vast and easily killed late – we love the potential for a good bounce back from Vegas but can’t take the points.
ADF Pick: NYJ +8.5 LVR 31 NYJ (W)
@SoJashPick: NYJ +8.5 LVR 31 NYJ (W)
   

Indianapolis -3.5 @ Houston
The Indianapolis Colts witnessed a side step last week as the Titans took it to them on the ground. The largest takeaway from that contest was the absence of DeForest Buckner, which proved to be a massive miss overall. If we equate value in quarterbacks changing the dynamics of teams – Buckner is in that same category for this defense and it was seen. Likely to be back in the fold this week off of Covid protocol – the Colts will get a major uplift. Phillip Rivers playing from behind is never the scenario you want to see this team in, as mistakes pile up in desperation mode.
 
The Texans got horrible news over recent days, as Will Fuller and Bradley Roby are now suspended for the reminder of the season to PED violations. This will affect the offense a great deal as Fuller was the big playmaker for the offense. With no run game to speak of and now a major adjustment needed in the pass game – we are shocked the odds makers are leaving this to be four-points. This is rather easy for us to endorse.
ADF Pick: IND -3.5 IND 26 HOU 20 (W)
@SoJashPick: IND -3.5 IND 26 HOU 20 (W)


LA Rams -2.5 @ Arizona
The Miami Dolphins are the team that might have put the book out on how to slow down this Cardinals offense, specifically Kyler Murray. Ever since that game, the rest of the league have adjusted to make life difficult on the electric youngster - as his numbers have seen a very sharp decline. Facing the Rams who are stout in defending the run, we fully expect the same type of game plan to keep Murray in the pocket to avoid big runs.
 
The Rams on the other hand have seen contests where the mistakes from their quarterback are paramount to the success on the field also. Turning the ball over has been too common for Jared Goff and leaves the team in dire-straits to mount a comeback. This game is very important to both teams, as the division is truly still up for grabs. Being literally a coin flip based on what offenses will come to play – we’ll error on the side of caution.
ADF Pick: ARZ +2.5 LAR 38 ARZ 28 (L)
@SoJashPick: LAR -2.5 LAR 38 ARZ 28 (W)
 

NY Giants @ Seattle -10.5
The New York Giants defense has been the major improvement this season, but the offense is starting to play much more competitive over the past five weeks. Still the major concern rests in the turnover ratio from Daniel Jones, as he is the primary reason this club continues to see failures. With Jones status in question this week due in part to his hamstring injury – Colt McCoy will be the starter unless otherwise stated.
 
The Seahawks themselves have seen stumbles but returned to form the past two weeks. Russell Wilson has been more careful with the ball while the run game is returning to form with Chis Carson and Carlos Hyde again healthy. Seattle has made it known they intend to win this division and displacing the Giants should be an easy task this week. With Jones behind center, this may alter our prediction – but we’ll go with the knowledge that Colt McCoy will be the man behind center.
ADF Pick: SEA -10.5 NYG 17 SEA 12 (L)
@SoJashPick: SEA -10.5 NYG 17 SEA 12 (L)


Philadelphia @ Green Bay -8.5
The Green Bay Packers are also one of these teams that have been difficult to predict verse the spread this season. When gifted a larger point differential in favor, the Packers tend to have a letdown leaving the betting public scratching their heads. Looking much more polished last week in their beatdown of the Bears – we believe a similar showing will transpire against the Eagles.
 
The Eagles season is all but finished as they simply can’t get anything to come together. The offensive line is the major issue on this club and there is no way to rectify that this season. Carson Wentz continues to play poorly as well, which leaves a lot on the field of play. With how the Packers like to blitz, it could be a very long day for Wentz and company once again.
ADF Pick: GB -8.5 PHI 16 GB 30 (W)
@SoJashPick: GB -8.5 PHI 16 GB 30 (W)
 

New England -PK @ LA Chargers 
The New England Patriots came out and played maybe their best all-around game last week, as both the offense and defense looked much better. Shutting down one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the game in Kyler Murray, the test gets no easier with Justin Herbert this week. With Rex Burkhead lost for the season, the reliance on James White lifted the offense as well and will be the standard moving forward.
 
The Chargers are the team loaded with talent but in game situations and management have derailed their overall success. The positives for the Chargers is that they found their franchise quarterback this season and have many pieces to build around with a solid foundation. They have become a tough team to predict verse the spread but in a true pickem contest, at home against a lesser Patriots team – we are comfortable to suggest they will finally find a way to not blow a game.
ADF Pick: LAC WINS NE 45 LAC 0 (L)
@SoJashPick: LAC WINS NE 45 LAC 0 (L)
 

Denver @ Kansas City -14
The last time these teams faced off against each other, it was week seven and the Chiefs unloaded on the Broncos to the tune of 43-16. Patrick Mahomes is again playing to MVP levels as this offense is truly one of a kind. If they could find the evolution to be more balanced in the run game over these next several weeks – they will be nearly impossible to beat. Coming off a showing verse the Bucs that witnessed highlight-after-highlight, they did allow the spread to be foiled.
 
Drew Lock will be back behind center in this one coming off the entire quarterback room having to isolate for Covid protocol. While this Denver team has many holes and will struggle to keep up with the Chiefs – believing 14-points will be covered is a risky proposition no matter what. Going back to review the previous contest these two played against each other, the matchup greatly favors Kansas City in almost all categories. We’ll bite on this one.
ADF Pick: KC -14 DEN 16 KC 22 (L)
@SoJashPick: DEN +14 DEN 16 KC 22 (W)

 
Monday Dec.7
 
Washington @ Pittsburgh -8
With all the shuffling the NFL has had to endure with positive Covid tests, a double header Monday Night is what we have on the docket. Starting with Washington and Pittsburgh, both teams have a lot to like on both sides of the ball. Washington is coming off extra rest in this one while the short turnaround for the Steelers could be something to watch. Even as Washington put up over 40-points on the Cowboys – their roster isn’t close overall, to the Steelers to compete.
 
The Steelers have issues of their own while still being the leagues only undefeated club. Having no sense of a run game has opened the door for them being less multi-dimensional. Leaning on the short quick pass game has been a revelation to Ben Roethlisberger, but he is still proven to be equipped to feed the deep pass. The defense is where the Steelers will have the upper hand where this score could get ugly. However, Alex Smith is no stranger to keep games tight. Pittsburgh will win, but it will be closer than the line indicates.
ADF Pick: WAS +8 WAS 23 PIT 17 (W)
@SoJashPick: WAS +8 WAS 23 PIT 17 (W)


Buffalo -PK @ San Francisco
The Buffalo Bills have become a true contender while still building to find perfection. With certain inadequacy littered on both the offensive and defensive sides – there is always fear a letdown could transpire if guys like Josh Allen aren’t at their best. Buffalo has proven to move the ball up and down the field which adds to their confidence. If they could finally establish the run game to become that balanced unit, they would be very tough to stop.
 
The 49ers on the other hand have fallen victim to 2020 as injures have placed a number of their stars in the medical room. Starting to get healthy by the week, we did witness a much better showing in week 12. While we believe that could be the anomaly, the odds makers are leaving no room for error for picking the spread. This game will be played in Arizona due to county protocols making this a non-home game for them. Buffalo has played well verse the best in the business and we fully expect this ship to keep sailing.
ADF Pick: BUF WINS BUF 34 SF 24 (W)
@SoJashPick: BUF WINS BUF 34 SF 24 (W)


Tuesday Dec.8
 
Dallas @ Baltimore -8.5  (EDIT: Pick Made Dec.8 - 3PM est)

With Covid pushing this game back to a Tuesday event once again, the Ravens host the Cowboys which on paper is a dire mismatch. Baltimore has activated most of their talents from the Covid list which is great news for the team. As far as this game is concerned, this is a must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. While they haven't played their best football overall this season - this contest appears to be that get right game they desperately need. Even as we believe the Ravens will find their offensive touch, its the defense that will make the biggest difference here. 

Switching gears to the Cowboys, they have been dealing with a slew of issues on this roster and now the offensive line is added to that. This is a massive hole for Dallas as they will struggle immensely in stopping the pass rush. Attempting to move the ball will be a difficult transformation that we aren't believers in at this point. Teamed with a defense that gives up plays in bunches - this has the makings to be another blowout loss. The only caveat here is the lack of practice time the Ravens have had which could make them appear sluggish and rusty. With that said, we are comfortable to take this spread and finish the week strong verse the spread. 

ADF Pick: BAL -8.5 DAL 17 BAL 35 (W)

@SoJashPick: BAL -8.5 DAL 17 BAL 35 (W)

ADF Week 13 Record: 9-6 (.600)
@SojashPicks Week 13 Record:12-3 (.800)
    
 
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