Denver Broncos
2019 Record: (7-9) 2nd AFC West
2019 Season Recap:
Offense
Points: 17.6 (28th)
Yards: 298.6 (28th)
Pass Yards: 194.7 (28th)
Rush Yards: 103.9 (20th)
Defense
Points: 19.8 (10th)
Yards: 337.0 (12th)
Pass Yards: 225.6 (11th)
Rush Yards: 111.4 (16th)
Not to be disrespectful toward the
Broncos organization, but when we dove into the Denver Broncos and what they
were in 2019 – we truly scratch our heads to what John Elway is trying to
accomplish. Long gone are the days where Peyton Manning took over a club that
was absolutely loaded with talent, and still it appears that Elway is using the
same formula and Band-Aid approach. The attempt is clear in how the roster is
built, but Elway is trying to add certain pieces to get to the postseason
rather then tear it down and fully rebuild.
Bringing Joe Flacco to the club was a
peculiar move in our eyes, as his prime (if he had one) has been long expired.
This is indication that Elway wanted to place a veteran passer to take the
reins once again in hopes great achievements would be realized. Under Flacco,
the offense was slow, uninspiring and lacked any great execution or creativity.
And while Flacco was able to play in eight contests for the Broncos, an injury
sent him to the bench to never return.
Upon Flacco’s departure as the starting
quarterback, the Broncos were forced to play Brandon Allen for three games as
they awaited the return of their rookie Drew Lock (from injury). Skipping right
past the stopgap of Allen, Lock entered as the teams starting pivot and looked
fantastic doing it. Filled with high levels of confidence, it was exactly what
this Denver team needed on offense to generate a spark. Playing in the final
five contests of the season, Lock was able to produce four victories looking to
be the right man for the job. With that said, the Broncos record does look
better on paper then how the year truly went but optimism is the encouraging
factor with young Lock poised to be the unquestioned starter in 2020.
Highlighting other positives from this
lost season, Courtland Sutton emerged as a number one target while Phillip
Lindsay remained a constant producer. Adding to that, the defense still proved
they could be a force racking up high end statistics in the process.
Seeing how Elway moves this team in 2020
will tell a grand tale on if he plans to fully rebuild this club or continue
the downward spiral which they’ve been on these past few years.
2020 Offseason WorkBook:
The Offense
Even with the above opinion, we do see a
lot of sound talented players gracing this roster, but not near enough to be a
true competitor. While we do believe in the ability of Drew Lock to be a great
quarterback in this league, correcting the inadequacy that is this offensive
line will be the difference in winning and losing once again.
To begin, we must throw large support toward
Lock, as we were major advocates of what he could potentially become in the NFL
from the 2019 draft process. Obviously the sample size is far too small to make
any solid predictions of what his career will look like, but seeing how he was
able to carry himself over those last five games is a great positive.
Nevertheless, if the Broncos don’t correct the issues on the offensive line,
Lock may not be able to steer this ship to greener pastures like we feel he
can.
In terms of the running back position,
Phillip Lindsay showed again what could be accomplished in basically mirroring
his numbers from his rookie campaign. Looking to continue down the path of being
the starter for this club, recent reports have suggested Denver would be in the
market to add another runner to help ease the workload on Lindsay. With that,
it’s safe to say the endorsement for Royce Freeman is almost out the window if
Elway wants more firepower in the backfield.
Finding our way to review the wide
receiver position, trading Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers was the appropriate
move leaving Courtland Sutton as the primary target. Year-over-year, Sutton
inflated his numbers with the added passes to come his way securing his first
1000-yard season (1112), while finding the endzone a healthy six times. In
terms of supportive pieces at the position, we still have high hopes for
DaeSean Hamilton as on film he looks like a Sanders clone. Tim Patrick also has
some level of value, but we don’t view him as anything overly reliable to
promote and recommend. Without question, we should see Denver add to this group
either via the open market or through the draft which is loaded with receiving
talent.
Echoing the same notion as above, it
really doesn’t matter what moves are made this off-season to skilled groups,
unless more attention is given to the offensive line. Having a player like Noah
Fant (tight end) is another great piece, but he too is unreliable in his
blocking ability at this point. We could make the case for Denver to sign
Charles Clay (if he reaches free agency) as he’s literally one of the best
blocking tight ends in the game. Having a player like this anchor the opposite
side of Fant would assist in covering up some inadequacy the line has.
With some building blocks in place, our initial
opinion is for Denver to rebuild this offense rather than retool to see great
success in the near future.
The Defense
When it comes to the defensive side of
the ball, this unit did see a drop off from what they once were, but still had
some level of statistical achievement over the 2019 season. Ranking anywhere
between the 10th to 16th spot in NFL defensive ranks –
this group was again held back with an enigmatic offense doing them no favors.
Starting with two of the best players to
grace this roster – Von Miller and Bradley Chubb were poised to dominate but
were derailed when Chubb was lost for the year to injury in week four. And
while Miller still steeped up to the plate and made the most of his season,
Denver still had monumental issue stopping the run. Without Chubb to help in
rushing the quarterback, Derek Wolfe turned out his best season collecting
seven sacks in the process.
Even with some level of success from the
defensive line and pass rushing presence from the outside linebackers, the
greatest weakness still rests at the middle line backer position. Moving on
from Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall over the past few seasons left with
it gigantic holes that have yet to be rectified. Todd Davis is a player Denver
does like a lot and believes he will take another leap in his development.
Davis led the team in tackles in 2019 even when missing two contests – rather
impressive. With that said, Davis simply couldn’t do things on his own which
allowed the safeties to also be team leaders in the tackling category. Adding
more talent to the line backer position will go a very long way in what this
defense will be in 2020.
When we dive into what the secondary was
this past season, all eyes were on the potential mid season trade of their
super star Chris Harris. Playing on the final year of his contract, the option
was there to move on, but Elway stayed the course. Now being a pending free
agent and looking to be paid handsomely – the Broncos already orchestrated a
trade to hedge their bets bringing on AJ Bouye from the Jaguars for a fourth
round pick. Right after this trade was announced, reports from Broncos camp insisted
they could still resign Harris this off-season – interesting.
With the Bouye deal to be confirmed upon
the start of the new league year, this secondary without Harris could be in
tough to make plays. Harris was that true shut down corner which allowed the defense
to scheme in many different ways, but if they believe that Bouye can replace
him in that respect – don’t hold your breath. To make this unit a beast for
2020, resigning Harris and Justin Simmons will be of the highest priority.
With holes on the defensive line, high
commodity players in need of new deals, and fixing the line backing core – we
could see a very different defense in 2020 with far less production. Keeping
the key pieces in place will be the major difference for this unit.
Team Free Agents / Team Salary Cap
As of today, the Broncos have a decent
amount of space under the cap, holding 53 million in free dollars to spend. While
this may appear like it could go a long way, Denver has 28 team free agents to
contend with and consider bringing back to the fold.
Starting with Von Miller, Denver holds
the club option on his contract which would inflate his salary to an enormous 25.6
million dollar cap hit for 2020. Reports have swirled to suggest trading away
Miller is something that may be entertained for the right compensation. In our
eyes, we can’t envision Miller begin shipped anywhere and he should start the
year on the Broncos roster.
Other notable names to grace the list in
requiring new contracts – obviously Chris Harris, Justin Simmons, Derek Wolfe,
Shelby Harris, and Adam Gotsis would be in great deliberation. And while Ron
Leary also sits on this list, Denver has already confirmed they will allow him
to test the open market. In terms of placing appropriate market value on
Harris, he’s poised to earn around 11 or 12 million on a two or three year
pact. Justin Simmons (based on age and talent) is looking to cash in big to the
tune of 14.5 million per season on a four to five year extension. Just with the
potential to resign these two, Denver would roughly be out 26 million with many
holes still to fill.
Even as the picture looks dire from how
we’ve painted it, Denver has a nice option to bring on more funds in removing
one large contract from the books. If you didn’t guess, we are talking about
the ridiculous contract being held by Joe Flacco which is set to pay him 23.6
million in 2020. A post June 1st cut would produce cap savings of
20.2 million while eating a mere 3.4 million in dead funds. This is a true no
brainer move but will handcuff Elway if he wants to be active in free agency
when it begins on March 18th.
So as we mention we would agree with a
full tear down and rebuild of this roster, we can see why Elway continues down
the path of retooling in hopes to reach the postseason once again. There are
ways to add weapons with the potential of an answer to the quarterback position
in Drew Lock.
The NFL Draft
As we’ve created the narrative to
rebuild the entire roster, we may bite our tongue somewhat based on the sheer
amount of ammunition Denver holds in this year’s draft. Holding an astronomical
11 selections total - the Broncos have two additional third round picks, a
second sixth rounder, and two more seventh round choices to work with. Sitting
with the 15th overall pick in the first round, there is no question
Elway could dictate the board as he pleases.
Like we mentioned, Denver can move in
many directions including offensive line, wide receiver, defensive line and
line backers. These view as the greatest concerns on this club and should be
resolved in this draft. We wouldn’t be shocked to witness a top flight receiver
pilfered off the board at pick 15 which could be Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, or
Justin Jefferson. Passing up on pure talent like this isn’t recommended and
should be the way they move first. Adding to the offensive line in round two
and three would also make a great deal of sense, but don’t be surprised to see
Denver trade back into the first round with plenty of picks at their
disposal.
Even as Elway’s track record in the NFL
draft isn’t great, this one will truly define his tenure and could lift the
Broncos back to levels they once enjoyed.
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