As we gear
up for the offseason, taking an early review of how the top performers stacked
up this season will be a valuable tool in dissecting placement in 2020.
Even though
the NFL is a passing league, running backs continue to be a massive vocal point
in fantasy football and can’t be overlooked. Injuries always seem to derail
runners at the worst time, so having a number of high earners will go a long
way in securing those fantasy trophies. This season showed high end talent at
the position with a multitude of points to be had. Let’s review this year’s
class of top end backs and those who didn’t match the hype.
2019 Top 10 Fantasy Football Running
Backs
Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
2019 Points: 448.4 | 2018 Points: 380.5 |
Net Gain/Loss: +67.9 (Rank 1)
By now it’s
abundantly clear to see that the best producing running back in PPR formats is
the Panthers Christian McCaffrey. In fact, when we say the best, we mean the
best by a massive margin to the tune of beating the next man up by a whopping
149.9 points – absolutely astonishing. McCaffrey was able to hit that coveted
1000+ rush and 1000+ receiving yards to place him in the record books with some
of the best to ever play this game. What made these achievements even more
impressive, most of this was done without Cam Newton.
Heading into
next season, even amidst a coaching change and possible quarterback change in
Carolina, McCaffrey could and should be considered as the top choice at this
point. His pedigree for high usage in the pass game allows for this evaluation,
but beware the offensive system adjustment which could drop these totals. We
have to believe the ceiling has been hit and there could be a match in
statistics or something of a drop off. Still, McCaffrey is one of the best at
the position.
Aaron Jones (GB)
2019 Points: 298.5 | 2018 Points: 171.5 |
Net Gain/Loss: +127.0 (Rank 2)
To be fair,
we must admit to our mistakes and sidesteps whenever they happen, and our 2019
offseason evaluation of the Packers Aaron Jones was a glaring miss. While we
always have been supporters of his work and ability, it was the sample size and
injury history which made it difficult for us to fully endorse.
With the
coaching change in Green Bay under a youthful offensive mind in Matt LaFleur,
we had thoughts to believe more commitment to the run would occur, but we
needed to be sure. Jones was a machine this season being utilized in nearly all
situations and remained relatively healthy. Hitting career highs in many
categories, Jones rewarded his owners with fabulous contests on the regular
with a promise for much of the same in the future. Jones will be highly touted
in 2020.
Dalvin Cook (MIN)
2019 Points: 292.4 | 2018 Points: 142.0 |
Net Gain/Loss: +150.4 (Rank 3)
This right
here was one of our favorite players to explode in 2019 at the position as we
literally preached the services of Dalvin Cook all offseason. Seeing Cook
gallop with speed and agility in training camp was all we needed to witness to
believe he would be one of the most exciting backs in all of football. The pace
Cook set for most of the year was looking to break records in the process.
However, at the most important time of the fantasy season, Cook once again let
his owners down with injury. While his season can be viewed as a great success,
limitations do bring with it debate for 2020.
The
Minnesota Vikings could be in for something of a transition this offseason as
they are very close to the salary cap and will have to shed contracts. The
future of Kirk Cousins is also in question which could bring more questions for
this offense. In terms of Cook’s outlook, he should again be one of the best
runners to hold on your club with injury risk again being the concern.
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
2019 Points: 291.1 | 2018 Points: 157.0 |
Net Gain/Loss: +134.1 (Rank 4)
Heading back
to the 2018 season, we held a great affinity for the Chargers Austin Ekeler,
but could anyone have predicted a near 300 point fantasy season in 2019?
Obviously, the Melvin Gordon contract holdout lifted the overall prospects of
what Ekeler was able to do, but even in Gordon’s return, Ekeler was still used
a great deal.
Holding career
highs all over his stat line, appropriately placing prospects for next year
will be rather difficult, and could be overblown. The Chargers will be in major
transition this offseason with Philip Rivers and Gordon both looking to move on
from the club. While volume looks to be in favor for Ekeler, there is
uncertainty at this point. He will be one to watch this offseason to not
overdraft.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
2019 Points: 284.3 | 2018 Points: 329.2 |
Net Gain/Loss: -44.9 (Rank 5)
It was quite
a shock to see the Cowboys Zeke Elliott land as the fifth best fantasy runner
this season, but it appeared the volume just wasn’t there. When we dove in and
took a greater look at his stat line, the loss in production was found in the
pass game where Elliott lost a number of targets which accounted for the near
45 point loss on his totals. While Dallas remained as one of the better
offensive units, they simply couldn’t bring it all together on a weekly basis.
Heading into
the new season, Dallas has relieved Coach Jason Garrett in favor of former
Packer Mike McCarthy in hopes to right the ship. This club is truly filled with
talent and should contend for much better than what transpired in 2019. As for
Elliott’s 2020 outlook, could we see McCarthy again limit the run attack in
favor of the pass like he did in Green Bay? It is a valid concern to be aware
of.
Leonard Fournette (JAX)
2019 Points: 259.4 | 2018 Points: 120.4 |
Net Gain/Loss: +139.0 (Rank 6)
Call us
stubborn all you want, but we couldn’t give up on the Jaguars Leonard Fournette
entering last season and we’re sure glad we didn’t. Having executed his best
season on record while staying healthy for most of the season was a beautiful
sight. The largest difference in Fournette’s overall game was the integration
in being a steady pass catcher for his club. While his rushing touchdowns took
a massive hit, Fournette was targeted a whopping 100 times in the pass game
equating to 76 receptions – just massive. By that alone it’s safe to see where
the added production came from.
While we
still believe in the ability to generate this type of productivity once again
in 2020, the situation on who will be the starting quarterback will be the main
question. With DJ Chark looking the part of a true number one wide receiver,
Fournette was able to find room weekly. His ADP will likely be lower from most
again, and could be selected at a bargain price much like this season. Until
further notice, Fournette can once again be trusted.
Derrick Henry (TEN)
2019 Points: 255.5 | 2018 Points: 189.7 |
Net Gain/Loss: +65.8 (Rank 7)
With all the
fantastic play of the Titans Derrick Henry this season, he still only managed
to land as the seventh ranked runner. While most have jumped on the wagon with
what happened after the fantasy season, we still struggle to promote Henry as
that weekly bust proof player. Historically throughout his career, Henry has
flipped a switch in the second half of seasons becoming that unstoppable force.
Pain points are normally felt early on but the finish is always strong.
In terms of
what to expect in the upcoming season, the Titans have a giant choice to make
on if they will sign Henry to a big money contract. The same can be said for
Ryan Tannehill as both will be free agents on the open market. Depending on
where Henry lands or if he returns to Tennessee, he will be a candidate to be
over drafted skewing his real value. Buyer beware will be the notion as of
today.
Nick Chubb (CLE)
2019 Points: 250.0 | 2018 Points: 190.5 |
Net Gain/Loss: +59.5 (Rank 8)
The
offseason moves to improve this Browns club came with it giant expectations
that couldn’t be met. Baker Mayfield couldn’t service the massive amounts of
talent held on this roster, but the one constant was Nick Chubb. Early on in
the season Chubb looked like a draft say steal of sorts piling up the
productivity in the process. But in week 10 when Kareem Hunt was eligible to
return from suspension, the fear of lost volume was also realized. While Chubb
was rolling to numbers that would’ve propelled him to being a top three back,
number eight is where he settled.
By now
everyone knows the cleaning of house the Browns endured to move forward with
the talent they have and likely to add more. But until this roster is fully
realized in the offseason, we struggle to promote Chubb like most. With that
said, he will again be a heavy earner, but if Hunt is retained, a time share
will limit the overall output.
Mark Ingram (BAL)
2019 Points: 242.5 | 2018 Points: 136.2 |
Net Gain/Loss: +106.3 (Rank 9)
When Mark
Ingram chose to leave New Orleans for that one last payday, we couldn’t have
been more enthralled with his choice in team. Landing with the Ravens was prime
to exploit his abilities in a run heavy system. Teaming with Lamar Jackson and
his fabulous running prowess, a record breaking year in rushing yards is what
we were treated to. For where you could’ve drafted Ingram, the value was off
the charts and we preached it with heavy endorsement.
While an
injured calf derailed the final weeks of his season and perhaps hurt your
fantasy club, we can’t see any situation where Ingram isn’t again utilized to
the same degree as this season. His ADP will naturally rise and for good reason,
the reduced price for his services will no longer be had. Another top value
season should be upon us in 2020.
Chris Carson (SEA)
2019 Points: 232.6 | 2018 Points: 181.5 |
Net Gain/Loss: +51.1 (Rank 10)
The Seahawks
Chris Carson is one of those players we have such a difficult time getting
onboard with. Not because we disagree with the talent, but the fumbles and
injury history are far too concerning for us to preach. Carson and the Hawks
system again became run heavy this season which equated to Carson adding over
50 points to his totals. With the emergence of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett,
Seattle had a balanced offense that became very tough to stop.
And while
injuries have been the fabric of Carson throughout his playing career, he again
was hit with a hip injury that could limit him come training camp. With backup
Rashaad Penny also showing well until he was lost for the season, we could
envision more of a time share to keep both men healthy. Value is here, but so
is the fear.
2019 Top 5 Failed Value Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (NO)
2019 Points: 228.8 | 2018 Points: 354.2 |
Net Gain/Loss: -125.4 (Rank 1)
By most
accounts, many analysts will say that Todd Gurley was the greater failure, but
in our eyes, Alvin Kamara is the unquestioned leader in this category. Heading
into the 2019 season, the hype train was real and lifted Kamara to be a top two
or three selection in fantasy drafts. We also witnessed many situations where
he was being touted as the top pick which would only sting that much more. When
all was said and done, Kamara lost a massive 125 points from the season prior
and just couldn’t seem to find the endzone. This was peculiar as Mark Ingram
was no longer on the club which left the door wide open for volume.
Nevertheless,
we have to take this season as a simple off year and fully expect him to get
back on track in a very big way. His ADP will plummet for a player with his
talent, but the value to return on investment will be extremely high. Kamara
will bounce back, we have no doubt.
Todd Gurley (LAR)
2019 Points: 208.5 | 2018 Points: 372.1 |
Net Gain/Loss: -163.6 (Rank 2)
The expected
downgrade of the Rams Todd Gurley was being speculated all offseason due in
part to his nagging knee issues. Many in the industry believed that Gurley
would be the largest risk at the position in terms of draft placement and that
became truth. For the most part, Gurley fell into the second round of fantasy
drafts which was appropriate when we look back at the lack of production.
When we try
and dissect what could be in the new year, we have a very difficult time
believing Gurley will ever get back to the dominating force he once was in this
high octane offense. Looking to have lost most of his lateral movement, Gurley
will still be a good north-south runner, but will need help in a shared
backfield moving forward.
James Conner (PIT)
2019 Points: 145.5 | 2018 Points: 267.6 |
Net Gain/Loss: -122.1 (Rank 3)
Injuries and
health are the main reason we must start to suggest staying away from the
Steelers James Conner. While this season was broken from jump when Ben
Roethlisberger was lost for the season, Conner simply can’t remain on the field
long enough to expel the fruits of high end point totals. Granted, we fully
agree that when healthy, Conner is a machine, but can we trust losing games
with him on the sidelines.
Pittsburgh
will again be looking to add playmakers to this offense in hopes to regroup
from a lost season. We do like the way in which they are heading if
Roethlisberger does return to action, and Conner’s ADP should be favorable
heading into 2020. IF the value is right, we may pull the trigger and chance it
once again.
David Johnson (ARZ)
2019 Points: 141.5 | 2018 Points: 234.9 |
Net Gain/Loss: -93.4 (Rank 4)
A larger
fall from grace we can’t find as the Cardinals David Johnson was a supreme
disappointment this season. Understandably, we knew this Arizona team would
feel levels of growing pains with a new Coach and quarterback, but leaning on
the ground attack should’ve brought with it massive point production. To make
matters worse, the Cards traded for Kenyan Drake before the deadline which could
spell the end of Johnson’s time in the desert.
Without
question we feel Johnson still has the ability to make things happen, but
perhaps a new team would bring that lift required to trust this product once
again. We truly would be shocked to see him return to the Cardinals this season
as a trade would make a lot of sense for both parties. He will be one to watch
close this offseason.
James White (NE)
2019 Points: 189.5 | 2018 Points: 259.7 |
Net Gain/Loss: -70.2 (Rank 5)
From PPR
darling and draft day steal, to becoming the forgotten man in the Patriots
offense in 2019 is the best way to describe James White. Over the course of the
season, White wasn’t used like the season prior and that came with it a loss of
over 70 points on the books. White was again our dark horse to be that weekly
flex starter in which you could plug and play and not even question it.
Needless to say, we had to play the matchup more than we had liked.
As we look
ahead to next season, the Patriots could look quite different if Tom Brady
chooses to move on. While nothing will be known until mid-March, the future of
James White in this offense could drastically change also. This will be a certain
ADP free-fall.
2020 High Potential Running Backs
Devin Singletary (BUF)
2019 Points: 147.9 | 2018 Points: N/A | Net
Gain/Loss: +147.9
Coming into
the league with some level of uncertainty to what his role would be, the Bills
Devin Singletary soaked up everything from teammate Frank Gore. Learning the game
and understanding how to utilize his talents, his role increased greatly as the
season wore on. Finishing his rookie campaign with nearly 150 fantasy points
looks somewhat meek, but his role should elevate that much more in 2020.
The Bills
offense is a group that should be on the rise as they continue to add
playmakers. While the future of Frank Gore to return to the club is uncertain,
we absolutely feel Singletary will be given the lead role and should make the
most of it. His value come fantasy drafts should be very nice and could
actually become a draft day steal. He is one to covet this offseason.
2020 Projected
Points: 200-240
Kenyan Drake (ARZ)
2019 Points: 196.9 | 2018 Points: 191.7 |
Net Gain/Loss: +5.2
When the
Miami Dolphins decided that a tank season was in the cards, Kenyan Drake became
expendable and was shipped to the Cardinals for draft pick compensation. Making
waves with Kyler Murray and finding his footing in his first contest in the
desert, Drake is a very intriguing player for 2020.
The largest
takeaway from this season was the usage in the Cardinals offense as he supplanted
David Johnson becoming the lead back. Now entering free agency off his rookie contract,
all signs point to Arizona bringing him back to the fold. Drake is very
talented and underutilized but could be one of the better runners in the
league. What will make Drake a sound bet for 2020 will obviously hinge on where
he plays, but his production in the pass game is a welcomed sight. Stock is
high for Drake.
2020 Projected
Points: 220-250
Kareem Hunt (CLE)
2019 Points: 94.8 | 2018 Points: 230.2 |
Net Gain/Loss: +135.4
The story of
Kareem Hunt and his rise in the NFL with the Chiefs, to finding himself on the commissioners
list for actions caught on video, to finding a place with the Cleveland Browns
has been a roller-coaster. When he returned from suspension in week 10, the
Browns provided a workload that appeared to be primarily in the pass game.
Clearly Hunt still has ability for days but was stuck in a timeshare with Nick
Chubb.
Heading into
the offseason with some level of ambiguity, Hunt is a restricted free agent
with Cleveland holding all the power. We can envision the Browns placing a
first round tender on this talented runner in hopes to keep his services with
the potential of getting draft pick compensation in return. We would like to
see Hunt play for a different team in 2020 to maximize his value, but playing
with the Browns will surly provide a decent role for a weekly flex starter.
2020 Projected
Points: 150-200
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