NFL Week 1 Point Spread Picks

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2018/2019 Season Record: 134-132 (.504)

ADF All-Time Record: 266-268 (.498)

NFL WEEK 1 – Predictions (Projected odds makers @ Sept.5.2019 – 12:00PM EST) 

Thursday Sept.5

Green Bay @ Chicago (Favorite)

Caesars -3

Westgate EVEN

William Hill -3

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -3.5

Opening the NFL’s 100^th season on Thursday Night Football, the league has gifted us with an NFC North showdown between the Bears and the Packers. Clearly the Bears come into this season still having one of the best defensive groups and hold an offense that should make strides to get even better.

The Packers on the other hand will have a new offensive system for the first time in Aaron Rodgers career and will be very interesting to watch it unfold. Both clubs should be very tough matchups the entire season, but for our appetite, we like sticking with the hometown club on opening night as the safest pick. This game could come down to a last second single point to decide the winner, but we’ll take the Bears with the points.

CHI covers the spread @ -3 GB 10 CHI 3 (L)

  

Sunday Sept.8

LA Rams (Favorite) @ Carolina

Caesars -2.5

Westgate -2.5

William Hill -3

Unibet -2.5

SportSelect -2.5

The LA Rams are coming off a super bowl loss to the New England Patriots and will want to start quick to open the season in hopes to reach the big dance again in 2019. While the Rams squad looks to again be a force on both sides of the ball, the offseason was filled with health concerns from their star runner Todd Gurley. Either way, we aren’t too worried and believe the Rams will be on fire week-in, week-out.

The Panthers will try to bounce back from a season that started with so much promise only to fall by the wayside as Cam Newton again fell victim to injury. His health has become an issue these last few seasons as this team rises with him under center. While the Panthers look to be quite polished in many areas, this contest is one that won’t do them many favors.

LAR covers the spread @ -2.5 LAR 30 CAR 27 (W)

Washington @ Philadelphia (Favorite)

Caesars -10

Westgate -10

William Hill EVEN

Unibet -10

SportSelect -9.5

Heading into the offseason, the Eagles knew they had many holes in terms of depth, to which they solidified most with the draft, trades, and free agency. Looking to become an NFC powerhouse once again this season, Carson Wentz could be considered a question mark as he has spent much time in the medical room. Nevertheless, we truly love this Eagles team on paper and feel they will make waves.

Normally week one brings with it much speculation on how teams will perform, it’s clear that Washington will have more growing pains as they again look to reset this offense with Case Keenum and Dwyane Haskins behind center. Keenum will get first crack at starting as experience surly won him the job. This shouldn’t be much of a contest leaving Vegas to provide one of the bigger spreads for Sunday. While we typically don’t subscribe to this large of a spread, the Eagles will put on a show at home.

PHI covers the spread @ -10 WAS 27 PHI 32 (L)

  

Buffalo @ NY Jets (Favorite)

Caesars -3

Westgate -3

William Hill -3

Unibet -3

SportSelect -3.5

Both the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets finally look to have teams able to compete with the New England Patriots for the AFC East crown. Though the Bills look to have an edge on defense coming into this matchup, it can be argued that New York’s offense should be more efficient with LeVeon Bell.

This contest should see many ups and downs from both clubs as they look to move forward with their young quarterbacks. This game should be seen as a dart throw and could be much closer than the line indicates. With that said, we still like the Bills to come out victorious.

NYJ doesn’t cover the spread @ -3 BUF 17 NYJ 16 (W)

Atlanta @ Minnesota (Favorite)

Caesars -3.5

Westgate -4

William Hill -4

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -4.5

One of the better games on the week one docket rests with the Falcons and the Vikings. We have great appreciation for both clubs and believe they will be heavy hitters all season. For overall strength and depth on both rosters, we must side with Minnesota having the edge in that department.

Both teams possess high octane offensive units that should be able to score points at will. This content will come down to turnovers and missed opportunities. Vegas looks to be a little more generous in favoring the home club, as this game should be very tight with much back forth. Hard to pick a winner for this match but we are forced to take the under.

MIN doesn’t cover the spread @ -4 ATL 12 MIN 28 (L)

Baltimore (Favorite) @ Miami

Caesars -6.5

Westgate -6.5

William Hill EVEN

Unibet -6.5

SportSelect -7.5

Clearly the Miami Dolphins made their offseason evaluations and chose to move in the direction of a full rebuild to obtain higher draft capital. Housing a roster that shouldn’t be competitive most if not all weeks, this contest has the makings of being a blowout early.

The Ravens once again are built with a run heavy approach with Mark Ingram and Lamar Jackson ready to take charge. Not only will this offense be a handful for Miami to defend, the Baltimore defense is retooled perfectly to make noise one again. Garbage points should be seen from the Fins but won’t be enough to kill the spread.

BAL covers the spread @ -6.5 BAL 59 MIA 10 (W)

Kansas City (Favorite) @ Jacksonville

Caesars -3.5

Westgate -3

William Hill EVEN

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -3.5

Heavy turmoil filled the headlines for the Chiefs when Tyreek Hill found himself in a horrible off field domestic situation. With everything now in the rearview for the time being, Kansas City looks to again take their place atop the NFL as one of the best offenses in the league. Adding LeSean McCoy to the club after he was released by the Bills, it almost doesn’t seem fair to how good they could become.

While the Chiefs take travel to Jacksonville, we can’t discount the talent the Jags possess on both sides of the ball, making this a potential hard nose matchup. This defense clearly gave up last season given the horrible outings from their offense. Now ready to hit the reset button and take their place as still one of the best defenses in the NFL, we truly take pause for this contest. We could see Jacksonville pulling the upset but will play it safe for week one.

KC covers the spread @ -3 KC 40 JAX 26 (W)

Tennessee @ Cleveland (Favorite)

Caesars -5.5

Westgate -5

William Hill -5.5

Unibet -5.5

SportSelect -5.5

We have completely fallen off the Marcus Mariota bandwagon and will need a great deal of convincing to feel otherwise. While we do like what this Titans defense has to work with, it won’t be near enough for this team to make any push with Mariota and his inadequacies.

This is what most have been waiting for as the Browns look to prove they are more than just an on paper super team. With an offense loaded with talent and ability, the X-factor will be head coach Freddie Kitchens to hold it all together. Tennessee should keep this one close early, but the Browns will pull away around the third quarter all the way to victory. This should be fun to watch.

CLE covers the spread @ -5 TEN 43 CLE 13 (L)

Indianapolis @ LA Chargers (Favorite)

Caesars -6.5

Westgate -6.5

William Hill EVEN

Unibet -6.5

SportSelect -6.5

Heading into training camp, we had the Colts pegged as one of our favorites to challenge for super bowl supremacy. Now with Andrew Luck calling it a career, we were forced to reevaluate that notion. This Colts club does hold a sound level of talent, but will be hard pressed to put it all together with Jacoby Brissett leading the way.

While we could’ve easily made the case for the Chargers to mop the floor with the Colts this week, injuries and a holdout to Melvin Gordon have changed our thought process. Clearly the Chargers have a group ready to again make a strong push, seeing Vegas provide a touchdown spread on a Colts defense that showed well will be a tough task. Chargers will win this game but should be close.

LAC doesn’t cover the spread @ -6.5 IND 24 LAC 30 (W)

   

Cincinnati @ Seattle (Favorite)

Caesars -9.5

Westgate -9.5

William Hill -9.5

Unibet -8.5

SportSelect -9.5

The Seattle Seahawks have done a marvelous job in recreating this roster and not wasting the prime years of their star Russell Wilson. Revamping the defense with key additions should make them very tough to play against weekly. Jadeveon Clowney will be ready alongside Ziggy Ansah to form a defensive front to promote fear in their opponent. This offense should again be run heavy first, but will have rookie D.K Metcalf ready to take the top-off of defenses.

The Bengals take travel to Seattle which in it self is a difficult task, leaving us to pray for their wellbeing. With AJ Green finding his way into the medical room once again, we can’t promote anything positive outside of a few drives that will look to keep this team alive. Seattle will punish the Bengals in week one in front of the hometown faithful.

SEA covers the spread @ -8.5 CIN 20 SEA 21 (L)

San Francisco (Favorite) @ Tampa Bay

Caesars EVEN

Westgate EVEN

William Hill EVEN

Unibet-1

SportSelect -0.5

Vegas obviously had a hard time to decipher a favorite in this one as both teams have unknowns to contend with. For the betting public trying to review all scenarios, having the 49ers take travel cross county is the biggest marker to believe Tampa could win this game.

While the Bucs will again try to air it out to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, San Fran will orchestrate a game play of clock management filled will runs. Jimmy Garoppolo will have to prove he belongs as the starting pivot and will have his hands full. Either way, we’ll side with Coach Shanahan on the road in week one.

SF covers the spread @ -0.5 SF 31 TB 17 (W)

NY Giants @ Dallas (Favorite)

Caesars -7.5

Westgate -7

William Hill EVEN

Unibet -7.5

SportSelect -7.5

With the Zeke Elliott contract situation resolved just ahead of kickoff weekend, the Dallas Cowboys have a glorious opportunity to prove they belong in the super bowl contender conversation. This offense will be vastly improved with Amari Cooper having a full offseason with Dak Prescott, while this defense in our eyes is the real deal.

The Giants take travel to Dallas and will struggle in every aspect to make positive plays. Eli Manning will do his best while super talent Saquon Barkley will contend with eight and nine man fronts the entire contest. Garbage time points may ruin this spread, but we have zero faith in the Big-Blue this season.

DAL covers the spread @ -7.5 NYG 17 DAL 35 (W)

Detroit (Favorite) @ Arizona

Caesars -2.5

Westgate -3

William Hill -2.5

Unibet -2.5

SportSelect -2.5

We have preached the affinity for the Cardinals all offseason and truly believe that rookie Kyler Murray will do damage this season. A better contest to start the season Arizona couldn’t have mustered, as the Lions come into the desert with their own set of issues. Defense is a gleaming concern for the Cards and will have to put up points to keep this game close.

Detroit will try their best to improve on a horrible 2018 campaign which saw disaster on many occasions. The offense should be much improved if they stick to finding the ground game. Vegas is providing the road team with the favorite only because we don’t know how Murray will fair.

Behind the rushing of David Johnson, we could see the Cards taking this match by a nose last minute.

DET doesn’t cover the spread @ -3 DET 27 ARZ 27 (W)

Pittsburgh @ New England (Favorite)

Caesars -5.5

Westgate -5.5

William Hill EVEN

Unibet -5.5

SportSelect -5.5

Sunday Night Football always seems to give us beautiful contests each week and it starts with the Steelers and the Patriots. With New England coming off yet another super bowl victory and starting the year at home, losing Rob Gronkowski to retirement might not be felt as much as we initially thought. With Josh Gordon being reinstated and Demaryius Thomas looking to get back on track, we could make the argument that this Patriots club is far deeper then in past years.

The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in a situation they haven’t been in, and that moving forward is without Antonio Brown. Juju Smith-Schuster will get his first shot at making a name for himself as a true super star while Ben Roethlisberger continues to play at a high level. The difference for this team in our eye’s rests with the defense. Behind rookie Devin Bush, we truly believe they’ll be vastly improved. This game will be a delight and should have a great deal of points on the board. While the Pats should win at home, we do question the spread.

NE doesn’t cover the spread @ -5.5 PIT 3 NE 33 (L)

Monday Sept.9

Houston @ New Orleans (Favorite)

Caesars -7

Westgate -7

William Hill -7

Unibet -6.5

SportSelect -6.5

Kicking off the first of the Monday Night double header, the Saints host the Texans in what should be a very fast paced contest. New Orleans is one of our favorites to make a strong push for the super bowl this season and shouldn’t have many clubs giving them issue. This offense is again loaded and the addition of Jared Cook to the fold will only improve this output.

The Texans are a group that look to have sold out believing they are a championship caliber team. Trading away future high-end draft capital for Kenny Still and Laremy Tunsil, the writing is on the wall for head coach Bill O’Brien to win now. While we could easily subscribe to the spread given to the Saints, the Texans have a good level of firepower and will keep this close. The Saints win but should be tight.

NO doesn’t cover the spread @ -7 HOU 28 NO 30 (W)

Denver (Favorite) @ Oakland

Caesars EVEN

Westgate EVEN

William Hill EVEN

Unibet EVEN

SportSelect -0.5

Concluding week one, the Broncos travel to Oakland to faceoff against the new look Raiders. It’s very clear that most of the evaluations are taking a soft approach to predict a winner, as both teams seem very close in terms of talent. Denver clearly has the edge on the defensive side while we feel the Raiders will show what they can do on offense.

Being bigger supporters than most of Derek Carr, we feel he should be able to reassert himself as that promising talent we saw a couple year prior. This game could go either way, but now with news that Oakland will suspend Antonio Brown after an altercation with General Manager Mike Mayock, the dysfunction is far to large.  

DEN covers the spread @ -0.5 DEN 16 OAK 24 (L)

Week 1 Record: 9-7 (.563)

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