ADF Early Fantasy Football Rankings – QB Top 25

It’s never too early to project where the top fantasy performers should reside for upcoming fantasy football drafts. ADF is providing our insight to where current players should be ranked as of today for re-draft leagues. This listing will of course be modified as the offseason continues to move forward.

Projections are based upon 2018 PPR formats. 

TOP 25 Fantasy Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes | KC | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 26.1 | Rank 1

At this point of the offseason, it’s extremely difficult to not have Patrick Mahomes sitting atop the rankings for quarterbacks in 2019.

While the Chiefs still have an extremely large obstacle to contend with, (that being the future of Tyreek Hill), currently it remains status-quo leaving Kansas City to again challenge for top spot in offensive production. Mahomes proved he was the real deal lifting the level of play of everyone on this offense to support career highs in many categories. Mahomes was the only quarterback in fantasy football to reach the 400 point mark (417 points) last season; and should easily flirt with that prospect once again. 

While the fear in losing Hill could manifest in lower production for this offense as a whole, until we know for certain, Patrick Mahomes is your top ranked passer in fantasy football at this point.     

Aaron Rodgers | GB | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 19.5 | Rank 2

As we witness most continue to drop Aaron Rodgers down the ranks, we aren’t prepared to subscribe to that notion just yet. Predicting production based on a past season filled with inadequacy comes with more than just a knee-jerk reaction.

Rodgers didn’t show glaring signs of slowing down last year, but rather the vanilla approach of the offensive system is what led to their downfall. The Packers offensive line struggles and missed opportunities from the receiving core (with exception of Devante Adams) also played a massive role in the drop off in Rodgers productivity.

With that said Rodgers amassed near career highs in both passing yards (4442 yards) and passing attempts (597 pass att.) - but the breakdown came in the form of touchdown passes. Rodgers saw his worst output in finding the endzone since becoming a full time starter while playing a full 16 game slate. We have no doubt this will be rectified in 2019 under a new offensive system which should exploit his talents much further. Rodgers still is elite and will see a strong bounce back season.  

Andrew Luck | IND | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 20.4 | Rank 3

Admittedly, we at ADF were very skeptical in the prospects of Andrew Luck finding his way back to full health after witnessing the many complications in his recovery of that injured shoulder. Not only did Luck manage to compete at a high level, he smashed all negative perceptions, including ours.

Over Luck’s tenure with the Colts, he’s never enjoyed sound protection until this past season. Luck was sacked a career low 18 times in 2018 thanks to the addition of super talent Quenton Nelson. With that added time in the pocket to appropriately assess his opposition, Andrew Luck once again flourished statistically.  

While we would love to see more weapons added to this offense, the greatest concern for Luck is the amount of interceptions he throws. If Coach Frank Reich can assist in improving this aspect of his game, Luck could certainly challenge for the top spot in fantasy production.

Drew Brees | NWO | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 20.3 | Rank 4

While some may scoff at the notion that Drew Brees still belongs in the elite category of fantasy quarterbacks, the team dynamic of the Saints forces us to remain a strong supporter.

New Orleans still possesses a squad that will challenge for Super Bowl supremacy even with the loss of Mark Ingram in their run attack. The loss of Ingram could in actuality bode well for Brees with enhanced statistical achievement, simply with more pass plays on the docket. It’s our contention that Coach Sean Payton will adjust this offensive approach to highlight Alvin Kamara more in the pass game to supplant the loss of Ingram, thus increasing his productivity.

Though we would like to see another high end receiving talent added to this roster to remove pressure from Michael Thomas, adding Jared Cook via free agency has us licking our chops at the potential. Brees shouldn’t have much issue in recreating his 20.3 points per game from last season.

Baker Mayfield | CLE | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 17.1 | Rank 5

All aboard the hype train! While we at ADF really didn’t show much support for Baker Mayfield entering his rookie campaign, it’s time for us to get on board. The additions the Browns have made in trading for super star receiver Odell Beckham Jr, should absolutely increase his overall production.

While the potential for the Browns to become a stellar offensive unit is in the forefront, ranking Mayfield at the number five spot could still be somewhat ambitious. However, looking at all the pieces this offense has put together, suggesting anything less than 4000 passing yards and 30 touchdown passes from Mayfield doesn’t seem like a stretch.

At this point of the offseason, the Browns potential is forcing us to lift Mayfield into the top five.

Deshaun Watson | HOU | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 20.7 | Rank 6

The Texans Deshaun Watson once again proved he could be a trusted and reliable quarterback while coming off an ACL injury which could’ve derailed his overall outlook.

Coming into last season, out greatest fear regarding Watson was mostly mental in how he would respond to that ACL once he found his way back on the field. At times Watson did look tentative while protecting himself far more then what we witnessed in his rookie season. With that said, Watson was able to produce admirably leading the Texans while starting all 16 contests. 

2019 should be filled with more optimism for this Houston offense as expanding the playbook while adding more playmakers should elevate them as a whole. With his ability to take off and run, Watson leads the list of running quarterbacks.

Cam Newton | CAR | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 20.2 | Rank 7

Not far behind Deshaun Watson, we place Cam Newton in the seventh spot with the potential to climb the board as we get closer to the regular season.

Much like his running counterparts, Newton continues to be a beast on the field racking up yardage and touchdowns both through the air and on the ground. Newton and the Panthers began the 2018 season looking like an NFL juggernaut displacing the opposition while securing a multitude of fantasy production in the process. As the year moved forward, it was clear the Newton fell victim to an injury which was later described as a glaring shoulder problem.  

The concern for Newton moving forward is obviously pinned to his recovery from offseason surgery on that throwing shoulder. This is a situation we will watch closely, as it will undoubtedly effect our endorsement of Newton entering fantasy draft season.

Russell Wilson | SEA | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 18.7 | Rank 8

Without a doubt, Russell Wilson has placed himself into a category of elite level fantasy producers, and should again become very reliable this upcoming season.

While some may sneer at the placement for Wilson at rank eight, based on how the Seahawks are currently built, his productivity should resemble that of last season. Wilson is supremely talented and while throwing a whopping 35 touchdowns last season, his points per game leaves us to drop him into this placement.

Though we fully expect the Seahawks to add more weapons this offseason, the lack of overall stability on this receiving core should again promote a run heavy approach for this offense. Even as Wilson threw a healthy number of touchdowns, (which could again be the standard in 2019) the risk is high to witness low points per game once again this year.

Matt Ryan | ATL | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 22.1 | Rank 9

The Falcons Matt Ryan enjoyed a very productive 2018 campaign, placing him atop the leader-board for fantasy quarterbacks. It’s no secret that we at ADF are enamored with how this Atlanta offense is built, but our fear again is placed with yet another new offensive system installation on the horizon. 

Historically, Ryan hasn’t been in best form in the first year of an offensive changer over which could lead to a sluggish start to the season. However, our fear is slightly reduced now that Dirk Koetter is the man in charge of revamping the Falcons approach. Koetter saw great levels of success in Tampa Bay in regards to the pass game and the productivity he was able to achieve with both Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

If the offensive transition can become a smooth process, Matt Ryan could become a giant bargain in fantasy drafts.

Jared Goff | LAR | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 19.4 | Rank 10

At this point of the offseason, we can understand the argument of the Rams Jared Goff being a little low on this ranking, but we choose to error on the side of caution at the moment.

While we truly believe the Rams will again be the cream of the crop offensively, and Goff should be able to recreate his fantastic offensive prowess in the new year. The restraint in our eyes for this offense remains with the health of their star running back Todd Gurley and that hampered arthritic knee. While Coach McVay still had this club operating at very high levels even without Gurley running well, we really question if that will be sustainable in 2019.

Goff has the potential to move up and down the rankings before the season begins, but at this point given his ability, we are very comfortable with him at 10.

Kirk Cousins | MIN | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 17.6 | Rank 11

When Kirk Cousins found his way to Minnesota via free agency, we were completely enthralled with the potential of him leading this offense to another level.

While the season did start on a high note seeing the Vikings and Cousins produce magnificently, far too often we witnessed great letdowns with consistency. Even as Cousins enjoyed career highs in many categories while lifting his receivers to new heights, the expectations fell by the wayside down the stretch.

Even as the season concluded on a low note for this offense in general, we truly believe that Cousins will raise his level of play to become more dependable in year two with the Vikings.

Dak Prescott | DAL | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 17.9 | Rank 12

Truly the 2019 season is an extremely important one for both the Cowboys and their starter Dak Prescott. Entering the final year under his rookie contract, Prescott will be tremendously motivated to generate career highs of statistical accomplishment to help secure a long term deal.

In his efforts to gain that new deal, the Cowboys have provided Prescott with a plethora of talented players to help support the cause. Throughout his tenure in Dallas, Prescott has been rather consistent in being a mid-level fantasy quarterback. With that said, this season has the potential to prove career highs in passing with Amari Cooper, and Randal Cobb having key roles in that success.    

Prescott could very well turn into a dynamic player with all these weapons at his disposal.  

Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 21.3 | Rank 13

Tribulation in Pittsburgh has been a common theme these last few seasons, as star players LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown have both found their way off the roster.

Moving forward for Ben Roethlisberger’s prospects in fantasy football, we find it difficult to envision him reaching levels of last season. There’s no question the JuJu Smith-Schuster is more than capable of steeping in and making a difference, we just feel it won’t be as large as it was with Brown pulling coverage.

Even though Roethlisberger has proven to put up big numbers, this is truly the first time in many years we question the output of this offense.

Carson Wentz | PHI | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 17.5 | Rank 14

The largest issue with Carson Wentz in our eyes at this point is his inability to stay on the field. Seeing consecutive seasons of dealing with injuries which cost him time on the field has been alarming.

The prospects of this Eagles offense heading into 2019 does look extremely positive with the additions of Desean Jackson and Jordan Howard, but the red flags are gigantic in picking Wentz too high. At this point of the offseason, we view Wentz to have a very high ceiling, subsequently with a fairly decent floor.

With his injury history well documented over the past two years, picking Wentz might force you to have a backup plan ready on your bench just in case.

Josh Allen | BUF | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 17.3 | Rank 15

As we enter into the 2019 season, the Bills Josh Allen still remains the topic of much conversation, mostly seeing many negatives attached to his overall game. While we too would like to see a giant uptick in his overall accuracy, we can’t ignore what he was able to accomplish over the final six weeks of the 2018 regular season.

Clearly the Buffalo Bills are a squad continuing their rebuild offensively, but Allen showed great progression in the second half of last season. Allen was able to amass a healthy 145.3 fantasy points in that span giving him a whopping 24.21 points per game in that time. Simply for fantasy football purposes, we can’t ignore this production.  

The Bills have also added more capable weapons to the receiving core which should also improve the outlook for this season. With Allen’s great running ability to round out his overall game, he could literally become the biggest steal at quarterback this season.

Philip Rivers | LAC | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 17.8 | Rank 16

Old man Rivers (pun intended) continues to turn out solid campaigns even at the ripe age of 37. The way in which this Chargers offense is built, it provides Rivers the ability to remain a mid-level fantasy quarterback with very good upside.

The item which scares us off Rivers from time-to-time is his average points per game which can house below 15 points on any given Sunday. However, so long as the Chargers continue to push a sound run attack with Melvin Gordon, the prospect of Rivers still being a relevant matchup quarterback remains high.

Derek Carr | OAK | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 13.5 | Rank 17

Admittedly, we at ADF have been bigger fans then most of the Raiders Derek Carr, but have been forced to corral that enthusiasm these past couple seasons. Now with the addition of super talent Antonio Brown, Carr’s potential climbs back on the radar.

Over the course of his career, Derek Carr has shown sound levels of ability but does have a profound level of inconsistency. With adding new playmakers to this offense, Carr should be able to once again find that prowess in getting back over the 30 touchdown mark in 2019.

Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 16.0 | Rank 18

The 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo was hyped out of control before last year’s fantasy drafts, which ended in complete disaster. While no one could’ve predicted a torn ACL in week three, the outlook for this season is somewhat murky to begin with.

While we’ve seen many quarterbacks return to the field after such injuries to have long efficient careers, Garoppolo still has a great deal to prove in this league, and now has the issue of confidence to contend with. The X-factor for Garoppolo is of course his coach (Kyle Shanahan) who is a master in expelling the most of his passers and should be able to provide that push. With more weapons added to this offense this offseason, the 49ers could finally show what they are capable of.  

Garoppolo could be in for a great season but at this point of the offseason, we still have caution flags - placing him at 18.

Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 18.8 | Rank 19

While we feel like the Bears Mitchell Trubisky sits a little low on our early rankings, at this point we must sustain and reamin the course.  

Though the Bears offense is definitely an up and coming unit that should take another giant leap in the right direction, aspects of Trubisky’s overall game still leaves us with pause. Reviewing his tape from a season ago, Coach Matt Nagy curtailed the offense to allow Trubisky to take advantage. Seeing more rollouts and moving to his right gave a clear advantage to his pass attempts. Sitting in the pocket and throwing to his left still views as a concern in our eyes.

With that said we are supporters of Trubisky and believe he could become a very solid quarterback in this league with more experience on the field. He could find himself rising up the ranks come training camp.

Tom Brady | NE | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 17.5 | Rank 20

Seeing the fall from grace happen to the great Tom Brady in fantasy football should materialize this season. While Brady’s overall ability won’t see a massive downgrade, it’s the roster which has us greatly concerned at this point.

Having no choice but to place Brady at the 20^th spot is simply due to the limited amount of talented pass catchers the Patriots have on the roster. With Rob Gronkowski announcing his retirement, and the amount of receivers which found their way to the open market, Julian Edelman is now the only viable target.

Even as we write this evaluation, a part of our thought process does wonder if we are overthinking the situation. Bill Belichick is a master in finding talent where no one would look and turning out fantastic products. Brady has the potential to climb back up with a stellar draft class of pass catchers added.

Jamies Winston | TB | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 17.8 | Rank 21

At this point of his career, Jameis Winston finds himself in a “prove it” season to change the overall perception. It’s clear that Winston does possess a good level of talent, but still seeing struggles amount with low consistency is a glaring concern.

The reason Winston remains on the fantasy radar is simply due to the hiring of new coach Bruce Arians and the plethora of receiving options held on this roster. Perhaps the downfall in his short career has been scheme based and the lack of overall support in the run game. If Tampa Bay can appropriately rectify the running back situation, we may be forced to place Winston higher come the summer.

Matthew Stafford | DET | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 13.3 | Rank 22

The Detroit Lions continue to be an underachiever regardless of who is calling the plays. With Matt Patricia and his coaching staff now entering the second year of this installation, we still remain skeptical on what will turn out.

Over the past we’ve been believers in what Stafford can do, but the lack of creatively this past season really left us scratching our head. The Lions have potential to support the pass with Kerryon Johnson running the ball, but somehow we question if they’ll find that part of their game. This season could be pivotal for the future of Stafford in Detroit as anything less than high production could see him being traded to another team.

On a personal note, recent reports have come out regarding Matthew’s wife, as she is dealing with extreme health concerns which may also play a part into how focused he is on football. Life is the priority and should be accounted for before the season begins.  

Sam Darnold | NYJ | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 13.0 | Rank 23

We may take some flack on placing Sam Darnold at the lower end of the spectrum, but at this point, we have no choice.

While signing LeVeon Bell to the team should absolutely enhance this offense to levels the Jets haven’t seen in many years, its Darnold’s level of turnovers which places great fear in our eyes. Over the course of his rookie season, Darnold accounted for a whopping 20 total turnovers while only completing 57% of his passes. Seeing other pieces added to the puzzle like Jamison Crowder, we do have some level of optimism to go along with our cautiousness.   

Joe Flacco | DEN | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 15.2 | Rank 24

When John Elway traded for the Ravens cast off Joe Flacco, our initial reaction remained almost the same as it was in Baltimore regarding his potential output.

Flacco has never been the type of player fantasy general managers covet outside of matchup play, which should again be the case in 2019. Though the Broncos should expel the most from his strong arm, we truly question if we will see any rejuvenation from the 12 year veteran.

The offensive approach should be more conducive to his abilities as this Broncos team does house sound playmakers; we really need to see the chemistry on the field before we can provide our endorsement.  

Andy Dalton | CIN | 2018 Fantasy PPG: 15.9 | Rank 25

Over the course of his career, Andy Dalton has been reliable for fantasy football, but also houses a very low floor. Entering the 2019 season, we are encouraged with the prospects of Dalton to find new life under new head coach Zac Taylor.

The largest issue for the Bengals has been the offensive line and lack of dominating running execution which should be improved this season. Joe Mixon proved he was capable of leading the charge on the ground, while having players like AJ Green and breakout player Tyler Boyd making his presence known, the offensive potential under Zac Taylor has us intrigued.   

Andy Dalton is adept in playing at a high level, but should remain as a top flight matchup quarterback until further notice.