NFL Divisional Playoffs Point Spread Picks

PLACE YOUR BETS!!! Welcome to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs! Last week almost went as planned as our goal was to run the table on all four contests, which we failed on only one match.

Entering this week, Vegas is providing large spreads to bait the public to believe that all these games will end with lopsided scores. It’s our contention that while one or two of these matchups could get out of hand, the NFL postseason is a different animal leaving most contests to remain close. Hitting 75% winning stake last week lifted our overall records back above the .500 mark in both season and all-time tallies. We look to again be spot on in our predictions to bring those dollars to your bank accounts. Good luck and let’s get to it…     

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Wildcard Week Record: 3-1 (.750) | 2018/2019 Season Record: 132-127 (.510)

ADF All-Time Record: 264-263 (.501)

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS – Predictions (Projected odds makers @ JAN.11.2018 – 12:00PM EST)

Saturday Jan.12.2018

Indianapolis @ Kansas City (Favorite)

Westgate -5.5

Caesar’s -5.5

William Hill -5.5

Wynn -5.5

Unibet -5.5

SportSelect -5.5

The Indianapolis Colts look like a completely different unit these days behind the superb play of that offensive line. Andrew Luck hasn’t seen sound protection this great, perhaps in his entire career. With the ability to sit back in the pocket dissecting opposing coverages, the Colts have no issues moving the ball down field. Facing off against the Chiefs defense who still struggle on the best of days to make plays, Luck should be able to muster another solid performance. With the success of their pass game, the assistance of the run attack behind Marlon Mack has too been a welcome revelation.

While the evaluation thus far has been geared toward the Colts offense, we can’t overlook the fine play of this defense. Led by rookie star in the making (Darius Leonard) who has been an absolute force on the field, the Chiefs will need to get uber-creative to stop his prowess. Our largest concern for the Colts is obviously taking travel to play in Arrowhead stadium, but could definitely see a strong effort.

The Chiefs on the other hand come off the bye week having an extra seven days of preparation to understand how they can appropriately handle this Colts attack. Andy Reid will undoubtedly have his offensive troops ready for this one, believing the league’s best offensive unit will be able to teach this Colts group a thing or two. Our fear for the Chiefs in this showdown rests with their near league worst defensive group that has struggled to help generate plays. If Kansas City falters on offense at any point in this one, Indianapolis could make them pay.

While we do see the Chiefs coming out on top when all is said and done, seeing Kansas City winning by almost a touchdown isn’t something we are comfortable recommending.

KC doesn’t cover the spread @ -5.5 IND 13 KC 31 (L)

Dallas @ LA Rams (Favorite)

Westgate -7

Caesar’s -7

William Hill -7

Wynn -7

Unibet -7.5

SportSelect -7.5

The second half of the Saturday slate concludes with the high-flying Rams taking on the visiting Cowboys fresh off their home victory on wildcard weekend.

While the Rams enjoyed their extra week off, Coach McVay will surly have his club ready for action with a seamless game plan that should test the Cowboys resolve. The Rams finished the season with the 2^nd best offensive group in the NFL behind the Chiefs and should have their star running back Todd Gurley as close to full health as he can get at this point of the season. Jared Goff and company should be able to generate a healthy amount of points on the board in hopes that their defense can step up to the challenge and shut down Zeke Elliott and company. After spending all that capital on the defensive side, it’s safe to say that expectations haven’t been met with LA holding the 19^th best unit in the league.  

The Dallas Cowboys on the other hand have looked much better since they went back to their roots and featured their star running back Zeke Elliott as the main attraction of this offense. Dak Prescott is far better with the assistance of a viable play action pass executing the misdirection scheme. With the offense looking more sound these last several weeks, it’s the play of this defense that has us excited. Possessing arguably the best youthful tandem at the line backer position in Leighton Vander Esch & Jaylon Smith, Dallas was able to secure the 7^th best defense in the league this season.

While LA can normally score points at will, the Cowboys should use Elliott to control the clock to limit the amount of opportunities the Rams see. Dak will again have to be on point and precise if the Boys have any shot in this contest. Los Angeles spent money this year to bring a Super Bowl back to the West, and we truly believe they will be too much for Big-D. This game could end closer, but we’ll take the points for LA at home in a gamble.

LAR covers the spread @ -7 DAL 22 LAR 30 (W)

Sunday Jan.13.2018

LA Chargers @ New England (Favorite)

Westgate -4

Caesar’s -4

William Hill -4

Wynn -4

Unibet -4

SportSelect -4.5

The first contest on Sunday features the Chargers taking travel to New England to battle the Patriots. The Chargers were one of our top picks coming into the 2018 season to make giants waves, with a much improved defensive unit piggy-backing the offensive power they already held. Finishing the season with a 12-4 record which in most cases would be good enough to win a division, LA was held back due in part to Patrick Mahomes potential MVP campaign.

Philip Rivers won’t get many more kicks at the can to reach the Super Bowl as his career is reaching its conclusion. Teamed with a stellar run attack behind Melvin Gordon, the Chargers have been able to keep teams guessing with multiple looks and play action passes. This offense will have to be on point and sharp, as any side step should give Tom Brady an easy advantage.

The Patriots finished the season with a tune up against the Jets to gain confidence going into the post season. With that said, Brady and Gronkowski haven’t looked the part this year of that dominating combination which we have grown accustomed to in the past. Even with that letdown, the Patriots found new life in a run attack behind electric rookie Sony Michel and James White. Built very similarly to the Chargers in that respect (multi-back sets), this should be a very interesting showdown.

While the Patriots have been nearly unbeatable at home throughout their long rule over the AFC, this contest should bring them to a place they haven’t been in many years. Mistakes will be paramount in this one and will untimely decide who rolls to the AFC Championship. While the Patriots may get back to another AFC title match, it should be decided by a field goal.

NE doesn’t cover the spread @ -4.5 LAC 28 NE 41 (L)

Philadelphia @ New Orleans (Favorite)

Westgate -8

Caesar’s -8

William Hill -8

Wynn -8.5

Unibet -8.5

SportSelect -8.5

Concluding divisional round weekend, the Saints get ready to host last year’s Super Bowl Champs fresh off that stunning victory in Chicago.

ADF predicted that Philadelphia winning verse the Bears wouldn’t be a gigantic surprise as this team is truly battle tested and understands what it takes to win in the playoffs. Offensively, Nick Foles is once again feeling very comfortable and confidant given the fact that Doug Pederson has simplified the offense to tailor his abilities. There is no question that Foles can get this offense moving, especially this week against New Orleans with that leaky defense. Defensively, Philly impressed us with a very sound showing verse Chicago and will surly have to replicate that facing the great Drew Brees and this high powered offense.

The Saints hosted the Eagles already this season back in week 11, where Brees had a field day lighting up this club for 48 points in a lopsided victory. New Orleans has looked sharp and poised for most of the season and should have a number of plays that will take advantage of the Eagles secondary which is littered with backups. Alvin Kamara will again have a monstrous role in this match in hopes to keep Philly on their heels, as Brees opens this game up with the play action pass.

Foles and company will give it their best shot, but in the end, their run will be cut short as it truly appears that the Saints are heading for another championship with this squad. We are hesitant to take this spread, but playing at home is a massive benefit to the Saints. 

NO covers the spread @ -8 PHI 14 NO 20 (L)

Divisional Week Record: 1-3 (.250)

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