As the fantasy season has come to
an end it’s important to evaluate each position gaining understanding of their
current value. Current season value and previous season finishes are great
evaluating factors to where each player should reside for the upcoming season.
This evaluation is based on a 16-game fantasy season PPR custom format. Let’s
review!
2018 Top 10 Fantasy Football Wide
Receivers:
DeAndre
Hopkins (HOU)
2018 Points:
333.5 | 2017 Points: 309.8 | Net Gain/Loss: +23.7 (Rank #1)
The Texans DeAndre Hopkins took
the bull by the horns in 2018 to lead all receivers in fantasy points scored,
edging out the Packers Adams by a mere 4 points. Nuk again proved he is one of
the best in the business and should always be in the conversation with the
other elite brand receivers in the game. As Deshaun Watson matures and refines
his overall game, the prospects for D-Hop to continue the pace for the next
several seasons is likely an afterthought. Houston is on the cusp of being a
truly dominating bunch that requires a few extra pieces to bring them over the
top. Either way, Nuk is virtually un-coverable and can score points at will.
Heading into the 2019 season,
Hopkins and the Texans should only add more talent to the squad which will
raise the potential for Hopkins to again challenge to be the best in football
at his position. It very hard to argue Nuk not being the number one receiver
off the board in next year’s drafts.
Davante
Adams (GB)
2018 Points:
329.6 | 2017 Points: 222.5 | Net Gain/Loss: +107.1 (Rank #2)
The Packers Davante Adams is
something of an enigma as he simply turns out monster performances but doesn’t
get the respect around the league that he so rightfully deserves. Over the last
three seasons, Adams has done nothing but tally touchdowns at an incredible
rate securing a whopping 35 scores in that time. His average touchdown mark
over that three year span is 11.7 per season which would challenge for top spot
in the NFL. While playing with Aaron Rodgers is an obvious benefit and one that
should continue produce big numbers over the next few years, adding more talent
to this receiving core will only help his cause.
With long tenured head coach Mike
McCarthy fired, Green Bay has a glorious opportunity to correct the
inadequacies in their play calling and personal sub-packages. Adams is a true
play maker that was finally force-fed and proved he belongs atop the elites. Adams
should remain a top five receiver next season.
Tyreek Hill
(KC)
2018 Points:
328.0 | 2017 Points: 239.2 | Net Gain/Loss: +88.8 (Rank #3)
Coming into training camp, the
Chiefs number one receiver Tyreek Hill preached that behind Patrick Mahomes,
Kansas City would be the most explosive offense in the NFL. His words at the
time came with optimism as we all felt that Mahomes would bring a fantastic
dynamic to this offense over the departed Alex Smith. The NFL couldn’t have
expected the lights out showing of this offense which we had the joy of
witnessing as Tyreek became a household name lifting his rank to sit in the top
3 of fantasy producing receivers. Hill nearly managed to secure an additional
100 points to his numbers from a season ago, and could’ve done far better had
he not dealt with a few minor injuries over the course of the season.
While the Chiefs came out
guns-blazing scoring points at will, the natural thought is regression for next
season as matching these heights will be a difficult task all in itself. With
that said, the drop off shouldn’t be too drastic as it appears the Chiefs should
be a team the opposition will have to contend with for at least the next few
years while seeing this elite level play. Hill will sit in the top five again
in 2019.
Julio Jones
(ATL)
2018 Points:
325.8 | 2017 Points: 251.9 | Net Gain/Loss: +73.9 (Rank #4)
ADF has never been
shy to show our fandom for the great Julio Jones, and again he found his way to
sit as the 4th best receiver in PPR formats. In our eyes, if we had
to start a team from scratch and had our pick for a starting wide receiver,
Julio would undoubtedly be our first choice. Jones is an absolute beast that
continues to play at world class levels with the only knock to his game being
the lack of touchdowns he scores for a player with his talent level. Only
seeing one season in his 8 year career hit the 10 touchdown mark is the difference
from Jones being the best in the game each and every season. Getting back on
track and securing 8 scores while hauling in over 100 receptions and leading
the league in total receiving yards is proof that Julio isn’t ready to slow
down just yet.
Moving on to next
season, the Falcons made the best decision early in their offseason, and have
parted ways with mediocre offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. Atlanta
requires a play caller that understands how to get Jones the ball in key
situations while continuing to feed the super-star talent. With Calvin Ridley
having a fantastic rookie campaign and poised to replicate that success next
season, Julio should again see fewer double teams come his way. It’s not hard
to envision Julio replicating his success next season.
Antonio
Brown (PIT)
2018 Points:
323.7 | 2017 Points: 310.3 | Net Gain/Loss: +13.4 (Rank #5)
With all the
controversy surrounding the Steelers this season, Antonio Brown again found his
way to world-class numbers and hitting career highs in touchdown receptions
with 15. While it may be surprising to witness Brown hold the 5th
placement in the season ending ranks, it was his yardage which didn’t match
previous seasons which lead to the drop. With that said, the influx of greater
passing this season around the league allowed for others to feast in their own
rights marking greater competition at the position. The amount of elite level
talent at the receiver position is staggering and the glut will continue to
grow.
Looking to 2019, the
Steelers have made early headlines with Brown showing his displeasure with the
organization and players in the locker room, to only skip the last game of the
season. Brown has been viewed on social media being openly critical and leaving
the potential for both him and the Steelers to part ways. While Brown would
instantly make another club that much better, we have concerns to who would
throw him the ball if he in fact finds a new home. This is a situation to watch
this offseason.
Michael
Thomas (NO)
2018 Points:
315.5 | 2017 Points: 258.5 | Net Gain/Loss: +57 (Rank #6)
Making arguments to
who is better among the top six at wide receiver is like splitting hairs at
this point. Michael Thomas is a complete freak of nature with glue like hands
securing a catch rate over 90%. Thomas isn’t the fastest guy on the field, but
all this man does is make plays. Hitting career highs in nearly every
statistical category in 2018, Thomas again proved he belongs in the
conversation of the best in the NFL. What could be most impressive about Thomas
is that he literally has no viable receiving option on the other side that can
draw coverage from him, meaning he sees double teams more often. Thomas is the
poster boy for consistency and should continue to dominate so long as Drew
Brees is throwing him the ball.
Looking ahead to
2019, there has been no indication that Drew Brees has any interest in hanging
up the cleats just yet, which is a great positive for Thomas. Michael fell just
18 points shy of matching Hopkins for the top spot, and if the Saints could
find another talent to help pull coverage from his side, Thomas could very well
be the top producing pass catcher next season.
Adam Thielen
(MIN)
2018 Points:
307.3 | 2017 Points: 239.8 | Net Gain/Loss: +67.5 (Rank #7)
While most thought
Adam Thielen’s career season from 2017 was something special, he again added to
his stat book showing there is still more of a ceiling to his game. While the
Vikings didn’t have great team success this season, the addition of Kirk
Cousins proved to be great for fantasy football purposes. The one concern for
Thielen was the drastic drop off in overall productivity as the year wore on.
From weeks 1 to 8, Adam posted 74 receptions, for 925 yards, and 6 touchdowns.
From weeks 9 to 17 Thielen only managed 39 receptions, for 448 yards, and 3
touchdowns - you see what we’re saying. It’s clear the opposition figured out
the Vikings offensive scheme in the second half of the season which dropped the
overall outlook.
Moving to next
season, the Vikings will again be a team that will produce good-to-great levels
of offense making Adam prime to get close to his numbers again. Kirk Cousins
will have to improve his overall game in year two with the Vikings and we would
bet that should happen.
JuJu
Smith-Schuster (PIT)
2018 Points:
296.9 | 2017 Points: 191.7 | Net Gain/Loss: +105.2 (Rank #8)
Last season we had
JuJu Smith-Schuster as one of our high potential players at the position, and
he didn’t disappoint. Gaining 100 more fantasy points in year two is quite the
feat, and it appears JuJu is only scratching the surface. Smith-Schuster showed
he could be the best secondary receiving option in the NFL while putting up
WR-1 numbers in the process. Falling just 4 points shy of 300 total fantasy
points with the great Antonio Brown on the other side is very impressive. Some
have put in the argument that JuJu could have standalone value as a primary
pass catcher in this league and we are beginning to believe that notion.
For the 2019 outlook
for Smith-Schuster, a lot could be riding on this next season. If everything
falls apart with Antonio Brown and the Steelers and they manage to trade the
super-star, JuJu would instantly be placed in the top position. The future of
their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger also will be put into question making next
year completely unpredictable for JuJu at his point. Keep tabs of the
Pittsburgh dysfunction throughout the offseason.
Mike Evans
(TB)
2018 Points:
284.4 | 2017 Points: 203.1 | Net Gain/Loss: +81.3 (Rank #9)
Remember when some called
out Mike Evans to have a massive regression this season after a down
performance in 2017? Well we at ADF weren’t in that circle as we pumped the
tires of Evans having a rebound campaign and he surly didn’t disappoint. Even
as the Buccaneers struggled with their quarterback situation for most of the
season, Mike Evans turned out career best numbers in almost every category
including receptions of over 40+ yards, very impressive.
As we move to 2019,
the outlook on Evans should remain as a clear WR-1 as rumors have it that
Jameis Winston will be back for another season after some speculation that
Tampa would move on. If the Bucs could finally solve their running back
situation, Evans should enjoy the fruits of more play action opening up his
prospects down field. Tampa Bay employs a plethora of talent at the receiver
position which will also keep single coverage to his side. The value for Evans
is off the charts for where you can draft his services next season.
Stefon Diggs
(MIN)
2018 Points:
266.3 | 2017 Points: 198.2 | Net Gain/Loss: +68.1 (Rank #10)
We all knew the great
potential of the Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs, and he finally turned out a
campaign that hit over 1000 receiving yards. Hitting career highs in every
major category, Diggs proved that with Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen, they
could work some magic. The issue for Diggs season-over-season is that consistency
remains the largest concern. At times the target share didn’t come his way
leaving him touchdown dependent to save his fantasy days. Of the last 7 weeks
of the season, Diggs managed 5 touchdowns which inflated his overall point
totals to look better than what they could’ve been.
While we recognize
that Minnesota had issues all over the field in 2018, there is a lot to like
and build from going into 2019. The Vikings need to improve the offensive line
to assist Cousins and the run attack to form stability for this team to have a
breakout high-octane unit. With coaching and player change-over coming, we
fully expect fantasy owners to step back on Minnesota players in the new-year.
Our early advice is to remain patient, as great value can be had with Diggs
potentially falling to later rounds in the 2019 draft.
2018 Top 5 Failed Value Wide
Receivers:
Marvin Jones
(DET)
2018 Points:
115.8 | 2017 Points: 225.1 | Net Gain/Loss: -109.3 (Rank #1)
While we never like
to throw injured players in the top failed classification, we have no choice
with this group as missing time was the key factor in most of their declines.
The Lions Marvin Jones only played 9 contests this season due to finding his
way to the medical room leaving nearly 110 fantasy points off the board. Jones
finished last season at the 12th best fantasy receiver and was
poised to put up similar numbers this season, which never transpired.
With the Lions
shipping Golden Tate away via trade to the Eagles and second year pro Kenny Golladay
taking the giant leap in his progression, Marvin Jones has a perfect
opportunity to be a massive sleeper pick in the 2019 fantasy drafts.
Doug Baldwin
(SEA)
2018 Points:
141.8 | 2017 Points: 225.3 | Net Gain/Loss: -83.5 (Rank #2)
ADF went on record
this past offseason advocating in staying away from the Seahawks Doug Baldwin
in 2018 for potential large regression. Hitting that point dead on, Doug feel
victim to a knee injury which hampered him the entire season. Dropping over 80
points in total production leaving his owners scrambling for answers for the
price he cost them in drafts. As health increased in the latter parts of the
schedule, Baldwin did find more success but nothing to write home about.
The 2019 edition of
the Hawks could be much the same as it was in 2018 where a run heavy approach
could dictate the offensive system. Baldwin’s fall from grace saw a sharp drop
from being the 11th best receiver in 2017, to holding the 46th
slot in 2018. Depending on how the offseason goes for Seattle, Doug should be
poised for a rebound possible holding good value in drafts.
AJ Green
(CIN)
2018 Points:
149.4 | 2017 Points: 226.8 | Net Gain/Loss: -77.4 (Rank #3)
The complete debacle
of the Bengals season derailed the overall outlook for their super-star AJ
Green. There is no question that this was a complete anomaly year for Green,
and we fully expect him to find his way back to being a top flight earner next
season. For where Green would’ve been selected in drafts, his failed season
would’ve crippled fantasy clubs looking hard for better options.
As the offseason has
already begun for the Bengals, a new head coach and potential change over at
quarterback could take place this offseason. There could be a lot of change
coming for the jungle cats and would have to be watched closely for appropriate
value on Green in 2019.
Sammy
Watkins (KC)
2018 Points:
115.1 | 2017 Points: 146.3 | Net Gain/Loss: -31.2 (Rank #4)
Well we gave it one
last shot to place support on now colossal draft bust Sammy Watkins, and now we
can no longer tell lies. Sammy is now with his third team in 5 years and has
failed to produce a full season outside of his rookie campaign in Buffalo. It’s
clear that when Sammy is on the field he could be a true difference maker as we
never questioned his overall talent. For whatever reason, Sammy simply can’t
put everything together consistently enough to be trusted any longer.
While Watkins could
have a role during the NFL post season and could perhaps be a difference maker
in a game or two, we would need to see high productivity over the course of an
entire season to throw any more support his way. Draft bust, fantasy bust, is
the stench that will follow Watkins after so much promise.
Demaryius
Thomas (HOU)
2018 Points:
156.7 | 2017 Points: 205.9 | Net Gain/Loss: -49.2 (Rank #5)
Oh how the mighty
have fallen. This will be the third failed season for the once fabulous fantasy
receiver, now looking more like an afterthought. Injuries have filled his last
two campaigns and entering the ripe age of 31, his best days are likely behind him.
Being traded to the Texans this season from Denver, Thomas fell to another
severe achilles injury that should get him his walking papers this offseason.
Thomas’ outlook for
2019 looks rather grim as Houston has no contractual obligation to Thomas if they
chose to cut bait this offseason, removing the 14 million he is owed with no
dead cap applied. This surly will mean that he will be on a new club in 2019
leaving the prospects very murky at best.
2019 High Potential Wide
Receivers:
Zay Jones
(BUF)
2018 Points:
165.2 | 2017 Points: 70.6 | Net Gain/Loss: +94.6
There was a great
deal of hype for the Bills Zay Jones entering his 2017 rookie season only to
see a great failure. 2018 was more kind to Jones as it appeared he began to
understand the NFL game around week 10 of this season. With Buffalo potentially
having their answer at the quarterback position with Josh Allen, Zay managed to
find the endzone a healthy 7 times while hauling in a career high 56
receptions. Buffalo still has a lot of work to do this offseason, but Zay is
known for being sure handed and could turn out to be a great PPR product. There
is still great risk applied to Jones, but it is beginning to fade.
2019
Projected Points: 200-210
DJ Moore
(CAR)
2018 Points:
157.0 | 2017 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: N/A
The Panthers
drafted a gem in DJ Moore this past offseason to which he turned out some great
performances in the process. When key players found their way to the medical
room, Moore was able to capitalize showing his fantastic ability. Based on his
size (5 foot 11 inches) it took Moore some time to acclimate himself to the pro
game to understand where he could make the most damage. While the Panthers
season started hot, it was relegated to the trash bin ultimately missing the
playoffs. With changes forthcoming and rumors indicating Devin Funchess has
played his last down in a Panther uniform, DJ Moore could solidify himself as
the primary target in this offense. He is a player to watch for next year.
2019
Projected Points: 220-250
Randall Cobb
(GB)
2018 Points:
86.4 | 2017 Points: 159.4 | Net Gain/Loss: -73.0
Some may
scoff at the notion that Randall Cobb will ever regain fantasy relevance, but
hear us out before you move on. The Packers will be moving in another direction
this season as Cobb has finally played out his final year of his lucrative deal
in Green Bay. Injuries and lack of usage has been the issue for Cobb since his
fantastic breakout season back in 2014. Undoubtedly, Cobb will hit the open
market and could be snagged by a club that is looking for a player of his
caliber (perhaps the Saints or Patriots?). Cobb is only 28 years old and would
be able to muster at least two more productive seasons given the right
opportunity. If he can land on the right squad and stay clear of the medical
room, the value could be off the charts.
2019
Projected Points: 150-250
Comments
Post a Comment