As the fantasy season has come to
an end it’s important to evaluate each position gaining understanding of their
current value. Current season value and previous season finishes are great
evaluating factors to where each player should reside for the upcoming season.
This evaluation is based on a 16-game fantasy season PPR custom format. Let’s
review!
2018 Top 5 Fantasy Football Tight
Ends:
Travis Kelce
(KC)
2018 Points:
294.6 | 2017 Points: 233.5 | Net Gain/Loss: +61.1 (Rank #1)
It’s no secret that
the tight-end position is an absolute nightmare for fantasy football these
days, but four of the top five at the position did manage to secure over 200
points for the season. Starting with the Chiefs Travis Kelce, securing the
number one rank for the second straight season, he provided great value for
where you would’ve had to draft him this summer. Travis hit career highs in
nearly every receiving category this year, and it’s no surprise given the
terrific season his quarterback had. Kelce beat last year’s mark by a healthy
61 points making this the new ceiling for next season.
It’s not hard to
envision the Chiefs continuing down the path of high-octane performances, so
long as Patrick Mahomes can continue to produce like he is. In our eyes, Kansas
City can only improve the roster offensively providing more weapons to create
those mismatches on the field. Kelce should again be the top tight-end off the
board in 2019.
Zach Ertz
(PHI)
2018 Points:
280.3 | 2017 Points: 202.4 | Net Gain/Loss: +77.9 (Rank #2)
Thinking
that the Eagles Zach Ertz would be able to replicate his performance from last
season, he surly didn’t disappoint in gaining nearly 80 more points on the stat
sheet. Ertz has been the staple of consistency in this Eagles offense,
providing near bust proof outings on a weekly basis. Zach smashed nearly all
career highs this season with a whopping 116 receptions going for over 1100
yards, very impressive. Zach was very strong at producing for his owners
leaving him to possibly be the top tight-end in next year’s draft.
Much
like Travis Kelce, Ertz is the cream of the crop at the position and should be
able to hover around the same production in 2019. It’s very possible to see a
slight regression to his stat-line next season, but his floor is very safe for
where he can be selected.
George
Kittle (SF)
2018 Points:
258.7 | 2017 Points: 106.5 | Net Gain/Loss: +152.2 (Rank #3)
While we preached the
inevitable rise of the 49ers George Kittle before this season, we actually took
a few steps back when Jimmy Garoppolo went down back in week 3. It was really
unfathomable to witness what Kittle was able to accomplish with third string
quarterback throwing him the ball. After all was said and done, Kittle won the
record for most passing yards received for a tight-end in any season in NFL
history. Based on the value to draft pick ratio, George was an absolute steal
this year and would’ve likely been on many championship rosters.
Moving to 2019, the
prospects of Kittle returning to grace is high with Jimmy G expected back by
training camp to again find the chemistry with his star tight-end. George has
everything you would look for in a player at his position and is merely
scratching the surface in this offense. There is potential for Kittle to be
over-drafted come next summer, but based on this body of work, these stats
should become the normal for him.
Eric Ebron
(IND)
2018 Points:
222.2 | 2017 Points: 132.4 | Net Gain/Loss: +89.8 (Rank #4)
Redemption,
rejuvenation, reinvigorated, are some words to describe the Colts 2018 free
agent addition Eric Ebron. Leaving Detroit with his tail between his legs
seeing nothing but negative reviews for his overall game, Ebron found magic
with Andrew Luck and the Colts offense. Ebron managed to put up career high
numbers in every category this season including being the front running in the
NFL in touchdown catches for player at his position with 13, what a turnaround.
As this Colts offense began to buy-in and figure things out, Ebron was the
go-to player in the redzone.
Moving
to 2019, Ebron’s prospects could be a little murky, but has great potential to
again replicate his output. Eric will undoubtedly be over drafted with
expectations to repeat his success which may not transpire. The outlook is nice
for Ebron in this offense given the fact that they should add more pieces to
this roster. Depending on draft placement, there is high value here.
Jared Cook
(OAK)
2018 Points:
193.6 | 2017 Points: 132.7 | Net Gain/Loss: +60.9 (Rank #5)
Not surprising to see
the Raiders Jared Cook handle the fifth spot in this year’s tight-end ranks.
Once Oakland shipped Amari Cooper to the Cowboys via trade, Derek Carr
literally had no other viable threats that would generate production. Much like
his counterparts above him, Cook managed to secure career highs in every
receiving category this season as the Raiders look to rebuild under coach
Gruden.
Looking to 2019, Cook
should undoubtedly see a decline in statistical production as the Raiders will
add more talent to the receiving core to assist Carr removing his target share
in the process. Unclear of the final road Gruden and Mayock plan to take this
club, Cook may be a player that Oakland’s brass may want to upgrade anyway.
Buyer-beware in our eyes with medium upside for the new season.
2018 Top 3 Failed Value Tight
Ends:
Rob
Gronkowski (NE)
2018 Points:
131.2 | 2017 Points: 227.3 | Net Gain/Loss: -96.1 (Rank #1)
It extremely clear in
our eyes that Rob Gronkowski was the biggest failure for tight-ends in terms of
draft capital used for return on investment. Rob endured career lows in every
statistical category since entering the NFL while playing 13 games or more. It
appears that Rob continues to deal with injuries on a yearly basis and may give
the thought of retirement another look over. Gronk lost nearly 100 points of
production this season to the dismay of his fantasy owners, truly a failed
campaign.
2019 will be very
difficult to predict for Rob’s outlook, as shrugging off his retirement isn’t
something we are prepared to do. Even if Gronk returns for 10th NFL
season, his value should be questioned by every fantasy manager. At this point,
we would stay away from Gronk unless he slips to the middle rounds of the
draft.
Evan Engram
(NYG)
2018 Points:
126.3 | 2017 Points: 173.6 | Net Gain/Loss: -47.3 (Rank #2)
Our affinity for the
Giants Evan Engram was paramount this offseason believing he would take a
massive leap in the right direction, only to see a moderate letdown. When New
York drafted rookie super star Saquon Barkley, our indication that the pass
game would open up exponentially should’ve taken place even with the aging arm
of Eli Manning. This didn’t happen and we felt extreme regret as the season
prolonged. Injuries and lack of overall dominance filled Engram’s 2018 campaign
while dropping nearly 50 fantasy points on his overall stat line. For all the
hype which inflated his overall draft placement this past season, Evan was a
solid failure in our books.
Moving ahead to 2019,
Evan and the Giants will definitely go through some roster transformation which
could lead to potentially better production. A lot of things need to fall into
place for this to happen, including a new starting quarterback and improvements
to the offensive line. Engram is a player to keep tabs on this offseason, as
his draft value should drop drastically, leaving him a potential bargain with
high upside. We are not closing the door on Engram just yet.
Greg Olsen
(CAR)
2018 Points:
80.1 | 2017 Points: 42.1 | Net Gain/Loss: +38.0 (Rank #3)
While Greg Olsen wasn’t
a hot commodity coming into the 2018 season due in part to his 2017 foot
injury, prospects were higher believing he could return to generate higher numbers
than what he did. Once again Olsen feel victim to a foot injury which cost him to
miss another 7 games. With back to back seasons spent in the medical room for
extended periods while seeing career low numbers in the process, it could be
time for Greg to consider hanging it up and moving on from football. Based on
Olsen’s 2018 ADP, some managers took a shot on securing his services and ultimately
were letdown with what he was able to muster.
Looking ahead to
2019, Olsen’s future is surly up in the air as we won’t know his plans until
perhaps training camp. Even if Greg returns for another campaign, trusting him
to produce will be another obstacle on the minds of fantasy owners.
2019 High Potential Tight Ends:
Hunter Henry
(LAC)
2018 Points:
0.0 | 2017 Points: 126.9 | Net Gain/Loss: -126.9
ADF was supremely
high on the Chargers tight-end potential star Hunter Henry this season, only to
see all prospects fall by the wayside once he tore his ACL back in spring
workouts. Losing the entire 2018 season places a red flag on his potential for
next season, but we feel he could return to be the player we envisioned. Henry
has the makeup of a high-end prototypical player that could potentially
dominate in the Chargers offense provided he gets back on track and back to
full health. While Henry saw 126 fantasy points in a time share in 2017 with
future hall of famer Antonio Gates, 2019 should be his job to lose with no
viable competition standing in his way. Believing that Hunter will play the
entire 2019 season, we could see fireworks come from the big man.
2019
Projected Points: 200-250
OJ Howard
(TB)
2018 Points:
120.5 | 2017 Points: 101.2 | Net Gain/Loss: +19.3
Another player that ADF
held in high regard coming into the 2018 season, OJ Howard began his ascendance
into the spotlight in this Buccaneers offense, until his time was cut short to injuries.
Howard is a true play maker that can make a huge difference on the field provided
he gains some of the target share. OJ was becoming a staple in the redzone scoring
5 touchdowns in the 10 games he played this season. Health has been a concern
for Howard in his 2 years in the NFL and will have to prove he can stay out of
the medical room to be taken seriously for next season. Along with his health,
the Bucs have a new coaching staff that could limit or expose his abilities in
the new-year, it’s tough to tell. There is sound potential for this offense moving
forward making Howard possess solid perspectives coming into training camp.
2019
Projected Points: 160-220
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