PLACE YOUR BETS!!! Well not much to say other than ouch after reviewing our
results from last week where we absolutely took one on the chin. Over the last
two seasons, that was indeed our worst placement for predictions which is not
sitting well with us. Late game scores and sideways performances from top tear
clubs left us on the negative as we watched in dismay. Moving forward to week
15, we see tighter spreads from Vegas as they seem to recognize that nothing is
a sure thing in the NFL in the last quarter of the season. Still holding a
positive record for the season, we fully intend to regroup this week to
supplant our losses from a week ago. Over the course of the season we at ADF
have given high percentage winners consistently and look to provide that once
again this week. We will get back on track, good luck…
Follow on Twitter: @chris_ADF1
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Week 14 Record: 4-12 (.250) | 2018 Season Record: 105-102
(.507)
ADF All-Time Record:
237-238 (.499)
NFL WEEK 15 – Predictions
(Projected odds makers @ December.13.2018 – 12:00PM EST)
Thursday Dec.13.2018
LA
Chargers @ Kansas City (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3.5
William Hill -3.5
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
The opening contest for week 15 sees an extremely
important showdown between AFC West divisional rivals. The Chargers travel to
Arrowhead to face off against the Chiefs in what could dictate the outcome of
the division champion at seasons end. Both clubs have been very strong this
season, but we feel like the Chiefs might have hit a slight wall. Without
Kareem Hunt on the club, the run game has taken a huge step in the wrong
direction leaving Patrick Mahomes to carry the load. The Chargers on the other
hand continue to roll even without their star running back Melvin Gordon. In
terms of team defense, the Chiefs haven’t been able to muster anything of
dominance giving up yards and points in bunches. The Chargers defense is
beginning to pick up steam but still is prone to giving up big plays. This game
has the makings of a shootout with the Chargers wanting to pull even in the
standings. A field goal should be the outcome from either side on the last
installment of Thursday Night Football for 2018.
KC
doesn’t cover the spread @ -3.5 LAC 29 KC 28 (W)
Saturday Dec.15.2018
Houston
(Favorite) @ NY Jets
Westgate -6
Caesar’s -6.5
William Hill -6
Wynn -6.5
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5
NFL on Saturday is back for the next two weeks as the
Texans travel to New York to face the Jets. New York showed heart last week not
letting down and defeating the Buffalo Bills in comeback fashion. The Houston
Texans left a lot on the field verse a Colts club losing their first contest in
nine games. The Jets will continue to play out the string while preparing for
next season, as the Texans look to get back on track to put a strangle hold on
the AFC South. The Jets have their moments from week-to-week but will have
their hands extremely full in this contest. There is no question that Deshaun
Watson needs to play far better than a week ago, but having a tune up game like
this is what the doctor ordered. The Jets will try and make this a game but
will ultimately fall short.
HOU
covers the spread @ -6 HOU 29 NYJ 22 (W)
Cleveland
@ Denver (Favorite)
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -3
SportSelect -3.5
The second half of the doubleheader on Saturday sees
the charging Browns take travel to Mile High to face off verse the Broncos.
Denver squandered a prime opportunity to gain traction in the AFC Wildcard race
dropping a very winnable contest to the 49ers. It was clear that the absence of
Chris Harris and Emmanuel Sanders affected play on both sides of the ball. The
Browns on the other hand have picked up their level of play most recently
dropping the Panthers last week with distinction. The easy prediction would be to
stay the course with the hotter club, but our fear is that Baker hasn’t played
in front of the Denver hometown faithful, which normally is a challenge in
itself. This contest should be very close with both teams trying to establish
their ground attack right from the first whistle. Even with Denver on life
support for the postseason, they are a very difficult squad to beat at home.
DEN
covers the spread @ -3 CLE 17 DEN 16 (L)
Sunday Dec.16.2018
Green
Bay @ Chicago (Favorite)
Westgate -6
Caesar’s -5.5
William Hill -5.5
Wynn -5.5
Unibet -6
SportSelect -5.5
The Chicago Bears put the NFL on notice last week
proving that defense is truly an elite force especially at home. Limiting the
best offense in the NFL (the Rams) to a mere 6 points speaks volumes to what
type of group they are. Facing off against the Packers who found their stride
last week verse the Falcons gave them some confidence that a new offensive
system was needed to exploit their many talents. Vegas is placing something of
a trap on this spread in hopes to gain favor toward the Bears knowing that Rodgers
can compete with virtually anyone on Sunday’s. The Packers were victorious
early this season against the Bears as they were just getting their feet wet.
Some may believe that the Bears will continue to fly high behind this shutdown
defense, but we can’t envision Aaron going down without a fight.
CHI
doesn’t cover the spread @ -6 GB 17 CHI 24 (L)
Detroit
@ Buffalo (Favorite)
Westgate -2.5
Caesar’s -2.5
William Hill -2.5
Wynn -2.5
Unibet -2.5
SportSelect -2.5
Seeing the Bills drop another winnable contest last
week to the Jets only proves that closing out games is one of their largest
issues. With Josh Allen back on the field, the Bills have enjoyed greater
success these last few weeks with better offensive production in the process.
One statistic that is rather impressive and rarely spoken of is that the Bills
hold the best defense in the NFL in terms of total defense and passing defense.
The offense has been holding this team back this season but seemingly could be
turning a corner. The Lions come into Buffalo essentially in a lost season
looking to build anything to carry over to next year. Playing in front of the
Bills home crowd with no real resemblance of a run attack (without Kerryon
Johnson), Buffalo should be able to have success this week taking them over the
top. We’ll stick with Bills-Mafia in week 15.
BUF
covers the spread @ -2.5 DET 13 BUF 14 (L)
Tampa
Bay @ Baltimore (Favorite)
Westgate -8
Caesar’s -8
William Hill -8
Wynn -8
Unibet -8
SportSelect -7.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have given their best efforts
this season always finding ways to compete but ultimately letting their guard
down. This week they take travel to Baltimore to face off against the Ravens
who are built on the old school brand of smash mouth running and great
defensive play. Lamar Jackson is anything from a polished product but shows his
playmaking ability every time he touches the ball. While this spread gives us
pause, playing in Baltimore should do the trick for the Ravens to win with more
than a touchdown. Our grave concern is that garbage time points could lift
Tampa to kill Baltimore’s shot at covering the spread, but we can’t move away
from how solid this defense is. Jameis should have at least one interception in
this one.
BAL
covers the spread @ -8 TB 12 BAL 20 (W)
Arizona
@ Atlanta
Westgate -7.5
Caesar’s -8.5
William Hill N/A
Wynn N/A
Unibet N/A
SportSelect -8.5
The Atlanta Falcons are perhaps the most
underachieving club we’ve seen in recent memory given the amount of talent
employed on the books. Playing at home has always been the best for Matt Ryan
as the controlled environment allows them to play fast. The Arizona Cardinals
apparently pick and choose when they want to play football providing no insight
week-to-week. Beating the Packers at Lambo-Field only to return home laying a
goose egg for the home town crowd the following week to the Lions, leaves us baffled.
Vegas obviously is conceding to last week’s performance in the desert
suggesting Arizona won’t come to play this week. With all statistical
evaluation and logical though aside, we know which way this should go, but
remain terrified to endorse with great enthusiasm.
ATL
covers the spread @ -7.5 ARZ 14 ATL 40 (W)
Oakland
@ Cincinnati (Favorite)
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -2.5
SportSelect -3.5
Gearing up for one of the most meaningless contests on
the weekend slate, we see the Raiders travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals.
Both clubs are in evaluation mode for next season in hopes to determine what
viable players they can exploit further in 2019. Derek Carr and the Raiders
have played fairly decent football these last couple weeks with the topper of
upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers a week ago. The Bengals showed signs of life
verse the Chargers utilizing the run game to their advantage giving Joe Mixon a
whopping 31 touches on the afternoon. With no AJ Green on the field, we should
see similar usage for Mixon in this match. Adding to that, teams traveling from
West to East never come out favorably. Going to roll with the home team here.
CIN
covers the spread @ -2.5 OAK 16 CIN 30 (W)
Tennessee
@ NY Giants (Favorite)
Westgate -2.5
Caesar’s -2.5
William Hill -2.5
Wynn -2.5
Unibet -2.5
SportSelect -2.5
This contest right from jump has us going back and
forth while trying to understand the logic of Vegas giving the Giants nearly
three points. On the outside looking in, this feels like straight bait as the
odds makers are trying to generate money for the Giants who are coming off a
blowout victory against the Redskins. Playing Mark Sanchez and Marcus Mariota
are completely two different animals and we struggle to see the logic outside
of this being a home game in New York. As we dug deeper, it became clearer that
the Titans issues reign supreme on the road as they hold a record of 2-5
playing outside their own house. One encouraging sign for the Titans was the
absolute dominating running performance of Derrick Henry last week which could
be something Tennessee would like to exploit once again. Given that the Jaguars
have packed it in and left little resistance, we don’t put a great deal of
thought in that being the normality. Saquon Barkley has been an absolute
machine helping the Giants gain respectability as the season wears on. This
game could go either way, but we’ll side with Barkley and the Big-Blue.
NYG
covers the spread @ -2.5 TEN 17 NYG 0 (L)
Miami
@ Minnesota (Favorite)
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -7
Unibet -7
SportSelect -6.5
In a season where expectations were at an all-time
high for the Vikings after signing Kirk Cousins to that monster deal, the
outcome has been less than desirable. Minnesota is coming off a game where they
couldn’t muster anything against the Seahawks ultimately getting their
offensive coordinator fired. The Dolphins on the other hand are coming off a
contest that is being pegged as the miracle in Miami, after seeing Kenyon Drake
gallop into the endzone after catching a lateral from his teammate. Miami is a very
confusing club when betting is involved. Some weeks they can be seen as
competitive while others show lack of effort. The biggest wrench in this spread
is the uncertainty of what the Vikings will do on offense with a new play
caller. New schemes could allow Minnesota to be more creative sheltering their
game film from the Miami defense, or it could go sideways to be much of the
same team. Either way, Miami should be able to at least compete in this one
keeping the game closer than seven points.
MIN
doesn’t cover the spread @ -7 MIA 17 MIN 41 (L)
Washington
@ Jacksonville (Favorite)
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -7
Unibet -7
SportSelect -7.5
The Mark Sanchez fill-in
experiment went as expected, now giving the starting role to journeymen Josh
Johnson in hopes to produce anything productive. The Redskins season is all but
lost as they again feel victim to huge injuries to the displeasure of the fan base.
The Jaguars are a team that grossly underachieved while seeing a defense
unwilling to perform at elite levels simply because their offense wasn’t able
to pull their weight. This game looks to be a snooze fest, but the Jags should
be able to dominate an opponent with little effort extracted.
JAX covers the spread @ -7 WAS 16 JAX 13 (L)
Dallas
@ Indianapolis (Favorite)
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill N/A
Wynn N/A
Unibet N/A
SportSelect -2.5
The Dallas Cowboys continue
to roll as they seem to have a number of things figured out at the right time
of the season. Winners of their last five and taking a strangle hold on the NFC
East, Dak Prescott and company look to walk into Indianapolis and walk out with
a victory. The Colts have played better than most predicted this season but
will have a giant test on their hands when the Dallas Cowboys come to town.
This spread is very interesting to us as we find it shocking that Vegas has
provided confidence in the Colts. While we understand playing on the road
doesn’t bode well for Dallas to dominate, but Andrew Luck hasn’t faced a
defense like this in quite some time. Dallas is gaining steam and is looking
like a well-oiled machine. We can’t see any scenario where Dallas doesn’t get
their sixth straight victory.
IND doesn’t cover the spread @ -3 DAL 0 IND 23 (L)
Seattle
(Favorite) @ San Francisco
Westgate -5
Caesar’s -5
William Hill -5
Wynn -5
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -5.5
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks just continue to pile
up the victories no matter who the opponent seems to be. Facing off against the
49ers in week 15, a team they obliterated just a couple weeks ago, we should
see a similar outcome when all is said and done. The Hawks template is vastly
comparable to that of the Ravens where the run game is the primary source on
offense while their defense has played extremely well. I doubt we will see a
trashing on the scoreboard like we witnessed in Seattle, but in our minds,
there isn’t anything credible to suggest a very close contest. Even as the
49ers shocked the Broncos last week in front of the home town faithful, Seattle
is far too talented to allow that to happen.
SEA
covers the spread @ -5 SEA 23 SF 26 (L)
New
England (Favorite) @ Pittsburgh
Westgate -1.5
Caesar’s -1.5
William Hill -1.5
Wynn -1.5
Unibet -1.5
SportSelect N/A
As we mentioned last week,
the Patriots have been our kryptonite in terms of trying to predict an outcome
verse the spread. Something about this club this season that reeks of
inconsistency overall, was fully exposed by Miami a week ago in a losing
effort. Taking travel to Pittsburgh this week to face a club that dropped a
sure win to the Raiders, both teams will be looking for redemption. While the
Pats loss came at the hands of coaching, the Steelers lacked great execution
for 60 minutes while giving up a last second touchdown to their foe. Big Ben is
limping into this contest with a rib injury that could pose to be an issue, but
we’ve seen him play with far worse and still be productive. Tom Brady had
perhaps his best game of the season last week and will look to build on that at
Heinz Field. This game could literally go either way, but when was the last
time the Patriots lost two in a row? Got to roll with New England in this one
on the road.
NE covers the spread @ -1.5 NE 10 PIT 17 (L)
Philadelphia
@ LA Rams (Favorite)
Westgate -9.5
Caesar’s -9
William Hill -9
Wynn -9.5
Unibet -9.5
SportSelect -8.5
Sunday Night Football gives us what should’ve been a
beauty of a contest, now looking more like a snoozer. With recent news reports
coming out that Carson Wentz will be out for this one, with the potential to
miss the remainder of the season, the Rams just got the upper hand on the
former Super Bowl champions. Coach McVay will undoubtedly be spending extra
hours in the film room while creating more explosive plays in hopes to get them
back on track. Playing in front of the home crowd is usually a welcomed sight
where Jared Goff should feel very comfortable. While nine points seems to be a
little high for us to endorse, we can’t see Nick Foles recreating that magic
from a year ago. LA should walk over the injured Eagles with ease.
LAR
covers the spread @ -9 PHI 30 LAR 23 (L)
Monday Dec.10.2018
New
Orleans (Favorite) @ Carolina
Westgate -6
Caesar’s -6
William Hill -6
Wynn -6
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5
Monday Night Football has a dandy on tap as Drew Brees
and the Saints travel to Carolina to face off against the struggling Panthers.
Starting the season it appeared the Panthers would challenge the Saints for the
division crown only to have lost traction losing a whopping five games in a
row. With their season on life support, Cam Newton will have to generate his
absolute best if they have any shot at making the playoffs. Speaking of
struggles, the Saints themselves have endured a pullback of sorts offensively
not showing that same dominating execution we’ve grown accustomed to this
season. It almost appears that the Cowboys gave the blueprint in how to stifle
this high-octane unit with scheme and misdirection. While we feel that coach
Payton will have his troops ready to role in primetime, the Panthers should
provide quite the fight. With that said, we have little to no confidence that
the Carolina defense will be able to hang with this offense for the entire
contest. Carolina will see their season ended on Monday.
NO
covers the spread @ -6 NO 12 CAR 9 (L)
Week 15 Record: 5-11 (.313)
Note: All Day Football is
not responsible for any personal gains or losses as a result of its
predictions. Please play responsibly.
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