PLACE YOUR BETS!!! With four weeks left in the regular season, there isn’t much
time left to earn those dollars with full slates of games on the docket. ADF
found a way to rebound last week hitting 50% winners and offsetting some losses
from a couple weeks prior. We still hold 11 games in the positive for the
season keeping our all-time record still above the .500 mark. This week reveals
games that should be easier to predict with a number of good spreads to contend
with. Our initial feeling is that we have a real shot to run the table this
week leaving money to burst from the seams. Seeing a high percentage of winners
should at least be our floor for week 14. Good Luck, let’s get to it…
Follow on Twitter: @chris_ADF1
Follow on Instagram: ADF5000
Week 13 Record: 8-8 (.500) | 2018 Season Record: 101-90
(.529)
ADF All-Time Record:
233-226 (.508)
NFL WEEK 14 – Predictions
(Projected odds makers @ December.6.2018 – 12:00PM EST)
Thursday Dec.6.2018
Jacksonville
@ Tennessee (Favorite)
Westgate -4
Caesar’s -4
William Hill -4
Wynn -4
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
This second last edition of Thursday Night Football
for 2018 shows the Titans taking on the Jaguars. Jacksonville showed up last
week at home proving the defense still has some game left in the tank. While
offense was difficult to find, the Jags were able to salvage a victory. The
Titans on the other hand barley came away with a win verse the Jets which
should’ve been quite the easy task. Hosting the Jaguars on a short week with
more than a field goal spread attached isn’t something we are encouraged by. Leonard
Fournette returns from his one game suspension which should allow the Jags to
move the ball on the ground and control the clock. Tennessee should be in tough
to generate a great deal of offense as a turnover will ultimately decide this
one. Tennessee may come away with the win, but a field goal sounds more
acceptable here.
TEN
doesn’t cover the spread @ -4 JAX 9 TEN 30 (L)
Sunday Dec.9.2018
NY
Jets @ Buffalo (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect N/A
The Bills and the Jets
faced each other a mere 3 weeks ago where Buffalo put a smack down on the
gang-green in their own stadium. Buffalo has looked much better these last
couple weeks offensively with the return of their rookie potential star Josh
Allen. With attempts to evaluate what this team could have for next season, we
fully expect the Bills to once again come out passing in bunches. The Jets on
the other hand have shown good ability on defense holding teams close, but have
been far to inconsistent this entire season. Travel to Buffalo is a tough test
for any club and the Bills should be able to find a way to win this match with
ease.
BUF covers the spread @ -3 NYJ 27 BUF 23 (L)
NY
Giants (Favorite) @ Washington
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -4
William Hill -3.5
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
The Washington Redskins again find themselves in a
situation where injuries have derailed their entire campaign leaving the roster
to be full with secondary pieces. The Skins had a great shot at winning the
division with Alex Smith running the show, but will be hard pressed to finish
with a winning record with Mark Sanchez behind center. The New York Giants are
a much better team than their record indicates and they appear to finally be
putting more things together. Lead by their star running back Saquon Barkley,
New York fully understands that everything offensively should start with him.
Eli looks more comfortable with a viable play action pass as seen from last week’s
matchup verse the Bears. While the Skins defense is a very sound group that is
literally a few pieces away from being elite, the Giants should walk all over
this injured club.
NYG
covers the spread @ -3.5 NYG 40 WAS 16 (W)
New Orleans (Favorite) @ Tampa Bay
Westgate -8
Caesar’s -8
William Hill -8
Wynn -8
Unibet -8
SportSelect -8.5
For the first time all season, the New Orleans Saints
looked pedestrian against a Cowboys club that truly exploited weaknesses in
their game. Moving on with extra rest for this upcoming contest, the Saints
travel to Florida to take on the Bucs in what should be a tune up contest
geared at redemption. The Bucs over the last couple weeks have looked far
better offensively than they have all season. Jameis Winston apparently
realizes that his fate will rest on these final contests. While travel won’t be
much of a concern for the Saints we could see something of a shootout as Tampa
will again throw the ball with great regularity. Vegas has placed this number
high enough to second guess ourselves, but in the end, the Saints should get
back on track. We will bite and go with Drew Brees in a rebound contest.
NO
covers the spread @ -8 NO 28 TB 14 (W)
New England (Favorite) @ Miami
Westgate -7.5
Caesar’s -7.5
William Hill -7.5
Wynn -7.5
Unibet -7.5
SportSelect -7.5
Even as it appears that the great Tom Brady is
beginning to decline in overall ability, the Patriots just continue to roll.
The Pats run game has been very sound this season behind rookie sensation Sony
Michel and seasoned veteran James White. Taking travel to Miami should pose as
a minimal test seeing Miami continue to look average at best. Establishing the
run will be extremely important for the Dolphins as Ryan Tannehill plays far
better when his backs are moving. Once again Vegas has placed a spread that
forces our thought process to over think the situation with more than a
touchdown needing to be covered. We have struggled to predict the Patriots for
most of the season but have no choice but to believe they will cover in this
one.
NE
covers the spread @ -7.5 NE 33 MIA 34 (L)
Baltimore @ Kansas City (Favorite)
Westgate -6.5
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -6.5
Wynn -7
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5
With Kareem Hunt now out of
the picture, the Chiefs were still able to move the ball verse the Raiders last
week, but clearly were missing that electrifying punch from the ground game.
Hosting the Ravens this week in Arrowhead should pose to be one of their most
challenging contests as the Ravens defense is known to shut their opponents
down. Patrick Mahomes will see pressure for majority of the day in hopes to
knock him off his game while forcing the Chiefs to try and establish the run. The
Ravens are in a must win situation with teams clawing at the opportunity to
jump them in the wildcard race. Lamar Jackson should be able to find room on a
leaky Kansas City defense with help from Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon rounding
out a powerful run attack. Seven points may be a little much for us to feel
comfortable and will have to error on the side of caution. The Chiefs should
win, but we really wonder if the dominance will continue.
KC doesn’t cover the spread @ -7 BAL 24 KC 27 (W)
Indianapolis @ Houston (Favorite)
Westgate -4.5
Caesar’s -5
William Hill -4.5
Wynn -4.5
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -4.5
It wasn’t the first time this season where the Colts
fooled us into taking a spread that promoted their ability to put points on the
board. Laying an absolute goose egg last week verse the Jags defense, we really
struggle to envision a scenario where the high flying Texans won’t be able to
muster enough to take down this striving Colts club. Indianapolis is a team
that is on the cusp of turning the corner but require more pieces to the puzzle
to make that happen. Houston on the other hand seems to have figured it out
while rolling to eight straight victories. The combination of a solid run
attack teamed with great performances from Deshaun Watson while seeing their
defense take over aspects of games, this team looks deadly. The Colts will try
and keep up but will ultimately fall short.
HOU
covers the spread @ -4.5 IND 24 HOU 21 (L)
Carolina (Favorite) @ Cleveland
Westgate -1.5
Caesar’s -2.5
William Hill -1.5
Wynn -1.5
Unibet -2.5
SportSelect -1.5
Cam Newton and the Panthers
have taken a giant leap in the wrong direction losing four straight contests to
place them on the outside looking in for the NFC wildcard race. This is truly a
must win for Carolina if they have any ambition of reaching the postseason as
they travel to Cleveland to face the Browns. Baker Mayfield and the Browns will
attempt to also keep their slim playoff hopes alive while upsetting a Panthers
team that was poised to make a good run. The Browns are a team that have
definitely looked much better this season but will be put to task this week.
While we have questions about what’s happened to the Panthers over these last
four weeks, we can’t go against Cam in crunch time.
CAR covers the spread @ -1.5 CAR 20 CLE 26 (L)
Atlanta @ Green Bay (Favorite)
Westgate -5.5
Caesar’s -5.5
William Hill -5.5
Wynn -6
Unibet -5.5
SportSelect -6.5
It’s no secret if you follow our work that we at ADF have
been big supporters of the Atlanta Falcons. However, it may be time for us to
get off the wagon and realize that this team has failed and are regrouping for
next season. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense have been underwhelming to say
politely. It baffles us to the core to witness such talent wasted and we put
most of the blame on offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. While the Falcons
have their issues, the Packers are no better underachieving for the last serval
seasons. Finally parting ways with their long-time head coach Mike McCarthy,
Green Bay will take the field looking to right the ship. While Atlanta never
travels well and will struggle to muster anything of value, the Packers are a
team with great dysfunction in their own right.
GB
doesn’t cover the spread @ -6 ATL 20 GB 34 (L)
Denver (Favorite) @ San Francisco
Westgate -5.5
Caesar’s -5.5
William Hill -5.5
Wynn -5.5
Unibet -5.5
SportSelect -5.5
The Denver Broncos were gifted a final slate of games
that could propel them into a playoff spot provided they run the table. Taking
travel to California to face off against the 49ers, Denver should be able to
find a way to victory without much pushback. Recent news reports have surfaced
alerting us that star receiver Emmanuel Sanders has been lost for the season
with a torn achilles which will have an immediate impact on this offense.
Losing Chris Harris for the season to a broken leg is also something that
doesn’t favor this Denver club. With all the issues facing the Broncos, this
49er team does possess heart and will have to dig deep to beat Von Miller and
company. Vegas is baiting the public with this line placing it in the questionable
category to confuse the betting masses. Even with all the injuries, we feel
Denver’s defense will overcome and lead them to victory.
DEN
covers the spread @ -5.5 DEN 14 SF 20 (L)
Cincinnati @ LA Chargers (Favorite)
Westgate -14
Caesar’s -14
William Hill -14
Wynn -14
Unibet -14
SportSelect -14.5
The Los Angeles Chargers showed great heart last
Sunday Night coming from behind to pull away with a very important victory in
Pittsburgh. Hosting the Bengals this week with a two touchdown spread indicates
how Vegas feels about Cincinnati. No Andy Dalton, no AJ Green, and Joe Mixon
has just popped up on the injury report which leads us to believe that a 14
point win could be achievable. The Bengals are now fully in a finish the season
with what we have mode and will struggle to produce anything of value verse
this Chagres team. With that said we never like subscribing to spreads of this
volume but are forced given what the Bengals will put on the field.
LAC
covers the spread @ -14 CIN 21 LAC 26 (L)
Philadelphia @ Dallas (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3.5
William Hill -3.5
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
The Philadelphia Eagles seem to have climbed out from
under whatever rock they were under to put together a few solid wins placing
them back in the hunt to win the NFC East. Standing in their way is divisional
rival the Dallas Cowboys, who themselves have found their stride over the last
several weeks. Taking travel to Dallas is never an easy thing especially snice
Dallas has played so well. The Cowboys defense is coming off a glorious showing
in which they shut down one of the league’s most dynamic offenses in the New
Orleans Saints. Feeling like this game could be decided by a field goal and
could go either way; we will buck the spread and go with that inclination.
DAL
doesn’t cover the spread @ -3.5 PHI 23 DAL 29 (L)
Detroit (Favorite) @ Arizona
Westgate -2.5
Caesar’s -2.5
William Hill -2.5
Wynn -2.5
Unibet -2.5
SportSelect -2.5
Seeing two teams that had
high aspirations heading into the 2018 season, the remainder of each campaign
will now be played to just complete the slate. The mantra remains true for
clubs that employ first year head coaches, that growing pains will be due in
part for the course. Potential does exist for both teams for the future, but
picking one squad in this contest has proven to be quite difficult. Matthew
Stafford has had yet another forgettable season while the Cardinals look to
keep giving their rookie gunslinger more experience. Arizona is coming off an
impressive upset victory at Lambo field against the Packers and should be
riding high coming into this one. Detroit possesses a lot of issues all over
this roster and may struggle verse a defense that is actually quite sound. The
home team should give their fans something to cheer about.
DET doesn’t cover the spread @ -2.5 DET 17 ARZ 3 (L)
Pittsburgh (Favorite) @ Oakland
Westgate -10.5
Caesar’s -10.5
William Hill -11
Wynn -11
Unibet -10.5
SportSelect -11.5
If this contest was being played in the comfortable
confines of Heinz Filed in Pittsburgh, we would have no qualms about suggesting
this spread will be covered. Even as the Raiders are riding into the sunset for
this season in hopes to secure the top pick in next year’s draft, their compete
level has been rather impressive these last couple weeks. Crushing the spread
against the Chiefs last week provides fear in the betting public that it could
once again be the case. The Steelers will be without James Conner for this
contest which could limit their run game somewhat. Pittsburgh is notorious for
playing down to their opponent especially on the road. While every play will
keep us on edge for this one to cover, we have no choice but to roll with
Pittsburgh with great hesitation.
PIT
covers the spread @ -10.5 PIT 21 OAK 24 (L)
LA Rams (Favorite) @ Chicago
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -3
SportSelect -3.5
The NFL’s flex scheduling has been used to perfection
this season as we will once again be treated with a great matchup. The Los
Angeles Rams appeared to have a bye week letdown verse the Lions as their full
arsenal wasn’t on display as it should’ve been. Perhaps the Rams overlooked the
Lions in preparation for this showdown which will put LA’s offense to the test.
Chicago is expecting their young franchise quarterback (Mitchell Trubisky) to
return from injury in hopes to uplift this offense. Vegas has obviously
provided respect to the Bears at home limiting the overall spread to a mere 3
points. As good as the Bears defense has been they were somewhat exposed last
week verse a Giants team that shouldn’t have been able to move the ball with
such frequency. Rookie Saquon Barkley was able to run free last week leaving
the prospects for Todd Gurley to do the same. We are big believers in this
Bears defensive group, but will be in tough against the Rams.
LAR
covers the spread @ -3 LAR 6 CHI 15 (L)
Monday Dec.10.2018
Minnesota
@ Seattle (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
Closing out week 14, the Vikings travel to the twelfth
man to face off against the red-hot Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson has been
on an absolute tear this season after starting slow finding the key formula in
their run attack. Coach Carroll continues to push the run game as the primary
source leaving Wilson to exploit teams with a perfect play action pass. The
Vikings again underwhelmed in an important showdown with the Patriots last week
and desperately need this win to stay in the playoff conversation. Kirk Cousins
needs to be much better moving forward or the 84 million dollars will look like
a giant waste of money for Minnesota. We still like the chances of Minnesota
finding a way into the post season, but their road will get very tough after
they drop this match in a loud environment.
SEA
covers the spread @ -3 MIN 7 SEA 21 (W)
Week 14 Record: 4-12 (.250)
Note: All Day Football is
not responsible for any personal gains or losses as a result of its
predictions. Please play responsibly.
Comments
Post a Comment