WELCOME TO THE SEMI-FINALS!!! The
Fantasy Semi-Finals are here, and every move you make to your roster will have
giant implications on if your team will challenge for the fantasy championship.
Great matchups do exist this week which should provide a great deal of
production. Through our research and evaluation, these listed payers should be
the ones you target and stay away from in week 15. ADF rides with you to the
fantasy title showdown as we ourselves attempt achieving glory yet again. For
the most part, we recommend sticking with the players that got you here as any
deviation could result in taking a loss. Good luck this weekend and we’ll see
you in the finals…
Follow on twitter @chris_ADF1
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START - GET THEM IN YOUR LINEUP
Quarterbacks:
Russell Wilson (SEA)
Even though
Wilson saw his second worse outing of the season last week, rest assured that
was the anomaly and not the regularity. Going up against the 49ers in week 15,
a team they met just two weeks prior, Wilson should again prove to be a magical
play on semi-final weekend. Securing a whopping 31 fantasy points verse San
Francisco in week 13 gives us great confidence that he will see a very high
floor in this one. Wilson will get you to the finals.
Tom Brady (NE)
Admittedly,
we haven’t been on board with the great Tom Brady as a weekly fantasy start for
most of the season, but coming off a great showing in Miami a week ago, the
prospects for Tom to provide once again is large, especially when facing off
verse the Steelers. Pittsburgh gives up the 10th most to players at
the position, and Brady has a great track record at Heinz Field. Seeing another
31 fantasy point performance may be a reach this week, but he will provide
solid numbers.
Cam
Newton (CAR)
Witnessing the absolute collapse of the Panthers as
the season prolonged, we literally are baffled as each weeks passes. Carolina
is truly on life support while facing a division rival in the Saints on Monday
Night, but should muster up everything they have left in hopes to compete. Cam
has had a very strong season for the most part seeing his worst game of the
season last week at the Browns producing less than 10 fantasy points. If
Carolina has any shot at challenging for a wildcard spot, Cam will have to be
on point in this one, and we believe he will be. The Saints give up the 5th
most to quarterbacks and Newton should have a day in primetime.
Running Backs:
Phillip Lindsay (DEN)
The Broncos
undrafted rookie sensation Phillip Lindsay has been nothing short of
spectacular this season and should once again find ways to generate big points
for your club this weekend. Seeing a rough day from Phillip verse the 49ers
last week, he eventually saved his day with a touchdown scamper late in the
contest. Having yet another favorable matchup this week against the Browns,
this time at home, we fully expect the Broncos to show up in almost every
facet. Generating 10-15 fantasy points should be quite easy for Phil.
Joe Mixon (CIN)
While the
Bengals really have nothing left to play for this season, we are encouraged
with the prospects of Joe Mixon having another fabulous day. Seeing a season
high in rush attempts and total touches last week, Mixon found his way to
nearly 25 fantasy points on 31 touches, impressive. Having a great matchup
verse the Raiders, who struggle at the best of times to slow anyone down, fire
up Joe and don’t think twice about what he’ll be able to produce.
Doug Martin (OAK)
Reviewing
the last couple weeks in terms of the Oakland Raiders overall play, we found
signs pointing up form decent to solid production from certain players on this
club. Doug Martin is in fact one of those players that coach Gruden seems to
like and will utilize him on Sunday against the worst rush defense in the NFL.
Martin has found the endzone in the last three games respectively and should be
given the opportunity again with his usual 15-18 carries. Oakland has put up 92
points on the scoreboard in the last 4 weeks showing improvement in moving the
ball. Martin could be a good earner this Sunday.
Wide Receivers:
Amari Cooper (DAL)
Over the
last three weeks, Amari Cooper has been nothing short of impressive piling up a
whopping 89.54 fantasy points in that span. Taking travel to Indianapolis this
week while facing a defense that allows the 6th fewest to fantasy
receivers could give some owners fear that Cooper could bust. While that fact
could transpire, the Cowboys have been a completely different team these last
five games and should give the Colts a run for their money. Cooper is
un-benchable right now.
Curtis Samuel (CAR)
The Panthers
Curtis Samuel has become a fixture in this Carolina offense and should once
again provide solid numbers on Monday Night. Facing the Saints this week with
their league worst pass defense, Samuel should be at minimum your flex starter
for the semi-finals. Cam Newton has been looking in Samuel’s direction a lot
more these last 4 weeks providing a healthy 28 targets in that span. The gadget
type of skillset that Curtis possesses provides an opportunity for him to find
the endzone in most contests. High potential to produce this week exists.
DaeSean Hamilton (DEN)
While we
wanted to wait and see how the Broncos would employ DaeSean last week before we
could provide an endorsement, we can now fully get onboard with what his
potential could become. In essence, Hamilton took on the Sanders role to
perfection last week serving as the secondary option in both scheme and
coverage seen. Seeing a fantastic 9 targets a week ago, we fully expect the
Broncos coaching staff to feed the young man. Even as we review the tape from
last week, DaeSean has a physical makeup mirroring that of Emmanuel Sanders.
Expect another good day from him as the Browns will again be without Denzel
Ward.
Tight-Ends:
Jared Cook (OAK)
Since the
Raiders shipped Cooper away to the Cowboys at the trade deadline, Jared Cook
has been the most productive pass catcher on the club. Since week 11, Cook has
seen 29 targets go for 19 receptions, 279 yards, while finding the endzone 3
times. All that production has translated into a strong 57.6 fantasy points
(PPR format) leaving Cook a great play this week against the 12th
worst defense verse tight-ends. If you have Jared on your squad, start him with
little debate.
SIT - LEAVE THEM ON THE
BENCH
Quarterbacks:
Matthew Stafford (DET)
Our
recommendations to bench Matthew Stafford last week was proven to be popular
advice as the Lions pivot was only able to generate a mere 4.07 fantasy points.
Going up against the Bills this week in New Era Field will again prove to be a
daunting task that will leave those who start him, looking to next year’s
fantasy season. Surprisingly, the Bills house the best overall defense in the
NFL while holding the same mark against the pass. Matthew will have another
very rough day this time in Western New York.
Jameis Winston (TB)
Since
returning to the starting role, Jameis Winston has shown consistency and
improvement in his overall play. Racking up a nice 89.93 fantasy points in the
last 4 weeks, some may contemplate firing up the Bucs quarterback for this
upcoming contest. While the numbers could provide some credence, the Bucs
opponent will have a lot to say about what Winston will accomplish. Facing the
Ravens who give up the 7th fewest to fantasy throwers, and seeing
Tampa travel up to Baltimore, this is something we are staying far away from
this week. Turnovers should be the story on Sunday for Winston.
Running Backs:
Elijah McGuire (NYJ)
While most fantasy player’s look for
volume when deciding to employ a running back week-to-week, the Jets Elijah
McGuire could be in for a giant workload, but should underperform in a terrible
matchup. Even as the Jets host the Texans on Saturday, Houston will prove that
their defense is up for the challenge to stifle the Jets fill-in back. Even as
reports have confirmed that Isaiah Crowell has been placed on injured reserve
leaving McGuire to carry the load, we don’t like the prospects of him
generating a great deal for your team. Look elsewhere this week for your
running back.
Adrian Peterson (WAS)
We have witnessed the percentage
of owners willing to play AP this week move up a fair bit these last couple
days, but are confused with the rational. We fully understand that the Jags left
the flood gates open last week allowing Derrick Henry to run wild on their
defense, it truly shouldn’t be the case in week 15. First, the Jags are back at
home where they feel comfortable, and this defense will not allow a journeymen
quarterback (Josh Johnson) to gain any traction. Why is that important? It
means that stacked boxes will be the mainstay for this defense making it
extremely difficult for Peterson to gain much yardage. Look away from AP this
week.
Aaron Jones (GB)
There is no question that Aaron
Jones is turning into a solid running back for the Packers right in front of
our eyes, but facing the Bears in week 15 literally makes us sick. The Bears
give up the 3rd fewest to running backs and proved their dominance
by shutting down the great Todd Gurley last week in primetime. While we don’t
consider this to be a must bench play, it will shape up more as a straight bust
when all is said and done. If you are forced to play Jones, hope that other
players on your club will cover what Aaron misses.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Evans (TB)
While it’s
never popular to suggest benching a star player in any format, we have no
choice but to caution the fantasy community of the great risk in playing Evans
this weekend. Taking travel to Baltimore is a difficult situation all in
itself, the Ravens add to that by shutting down receivers to the tune of being
the 5th best in the business. This recommendation is solely based on
risk as the Ravens should provide a wall of trouble for this Bucs offense.
Target share is normally not an issue for Evans, but we really fear what type
of production he’ll be able to muster.
Calvin Ridley (ATL)
Rookie
Calvin Ridley started the season with great flash, only to fall back down to
earth as the Falcons offense began struggling nearly on a weekly basis. Going
up against the Cardinals, who are known to possess a solid defensive unit that
can shut down receivers with the best in the game, leaves Ridley in a bad spot.
We have discussed this play looking at the prospects in both directions
thinking Julio will see a heavy dose of Patrick Peterson, which could open up
Ridley to exploit that matchup. However, we have never been supporters of Steve
Sarkisian and will never trust his game plans. Far too risky to start this week
in our minds.
Kenny Golladay (DET)
The Lions
Kenny Golladay is without question a fantastic up and coming young talent in
the league that has shown great ability this season. However, facing the Bills
in Buffalo, who hold the best defensive unit against the pass, we really don’t
like the potential for an A-Class showing from Detroit and Golladay. This play
also falls into the bust category. Kenny has the ability to find the endzone
stickily from his size being his greatest advantage over defensive backs, but
we really question how often Detroit will find their way into the redzone in
this one. Looking for another option at receiver would be in your best
interest.
Tight-Ends:
Kyle Rudolph (MIN)
Even though
this matchup shows good potential to become a solid play this weekend, we can
no longer throw trust in the direction of Kyle Rudolph. The Vikings offense
hasn’t proven to look to Kyle more than a handful of times each game deferring
to their playmakers, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Even as the Dolphins give
up the 10th most to players at the position, we feel the target
share hasn’t been consistent enough to garner much interest from us to
recommend.
POTENTIAL BIG DAY – ALL ABOUT THE
RISK/REWARD
Quarterbacks:
Dak Prescott (DAL)
It’s clear
that the Cowboys have fixed their offensive issues reverting back to allowing
Zeke Elliott to regain his place as the main piece in the offensive scheme. This
effect has propelled Dak Prescott to once again find that juice which made him
a highly touted fantasy quarterback before the season started. Utilizing the
play action pass is the feature which allows Dak to exploit defenses while they
attempt to slow down Elliott and that great run game. Even though the Colts
give up middle of the pack numbers to quarterbacks, Prescott could again see
20+ points on Sunday.
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
While we’ve
seen the utter demise transpire these last couple weeks for Kirk Cousins and
the Minnesota offense, we feel this week could be something of a resurgence
with a new play caller on the team. Kirk is just two games removed from a 32
point effort verse the Packers which is where this play could ultimately go.
Miami gives up the 11th most to quarterbacks and just proved their
inadequacies last week verse the Patriots allowing Brady to move up and down
the field at will. Again there is risk here, but we have supported Cousins all
season and will ride this ship to glory.
Josh Allen (BUF)
Do the
Buffalo Bills finally have an answer at quarterback for the long term? Josh
Allen is definitely making his case strong with solid performances these last 3
weeks. Not only has his passing improved, but Allen is showing his skill in the
run game which is lifting him into fantasy relevance. Josh still has a lot of
work to do before he can be taken seriously, but from the fantasy perspective,
his matchup verse the Lions could take you over the top into the finals. There
is great risk here that Allen could fall on his face, but the way it’s been
moving these last few weeks, Allen has a solid uptick.
Running Backs:
Kenneth Dixon (BAL)
The Ravens
are the staple of consistency when it comes to feeding the ground game and
coach Harbaugh has nothing but kind words for his running back. Kenneth is
truly a favorite of Harbaugh which leads us to believe they will provide him
more carries in this week’s contest. Going up against the Bucs who give up top
five numbers to fantasy runners, Dixon is prime to not only handle goal line
work, but steal touches from his teammate Gus Edwards. Starting Dixon could
give you great joy when this week is done.
Lamar Miller (HOU)
While Miller
isn’t normally a risk to produce, the potential for him to be one of the
highest earners this weekend is extremely real. Facing the Jets who give up
great numbers to opposing running backs, Miller and the Texans should be able
to make easy work of this New York defense. Lamar started the season slow but
has picked up the pace over the last seven weeks lifting his outlook to what we
envisioned at the start of the season. Trust Miller this week as he will gallop
to very good production.
Wide Receivers:
Josh Reynolds (LAR)
Since the
Rams came off the bye-week, this offense has been sour with timing and
execution. Seemingly moving away from running heavy with their star Todd
Gurley, this has had a compounding effect on Jared Goff and this pass game. The
Rams this week have a glorious matchup against the Eagles whose defense still
struggles with injures, leaving great potential for Reynolds to get back on
track in a very big way. Philly gives up the 2nd most points to
players at the position making Josh a viable option this week. Bust factor is
real based on the past couple games, but finding his way back with this high
octane offense is a real possibility.
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
The Seahawks
Tyler Lockett and his career season continues as they face the 49ers who give
up the 9th most to receivers and conceded a touchdown to him just
two weeks ago. Russell Wilson will continue to feed Lockett especially with
Doug Baldwin at less than 100%. Seeing six targets a week ago was very
encouraging as that could be the normal amount of work to come his way moving
down the stretch. Finding the endzone should be the floor for Tyler this
week.
Robert Foster (BUF)
The Bills
have seen more than enough of former Alabama product Robert Foster to cut ties
with Kelvin Benjamin promoting him to have a greater role on this offense. For
those unaware, Foster did measure very well in combine type testing but lost
traction in the draft process due to injury history. Now looking more like the
player we envisioned, Foster has put up 11 or more fantasy points in 3 of the
last 4 games. Robert saw an increase in his target share last week to 8 (career
high) which provides positive outlooks for this week. If you require a flex
starter with a solid matchup, Foster could be your man.
Tight-Ends:
CJ
Uzomah (CIN)
Gaining productivity from the tight-end position has
been has been nothing short of difficult this season, but this week’s prospect
with the Bengals CJ Uzomah has a real threat to be great. Seeing a healthy 21
targets over his last 3 games has us licking our chops at the potential. Facing
the Raiders who give up the most to the position, CJ has a great opportunity to
run free on this defense. The greatest issue has been the lack of explosiveness
given the amount of work the Bengals are providing him. Either way, we are
rolling with Uzomah in hopes the endzone is found giving us a great leg up on
our competition.
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