PLACE YOUR BETS!!! Week 12 was another week to forget for us at ADF in terms of
cashing in our spread predictions. Laying a goose egg on Thanksgiving placed
the wrong foot in front while somewhat recovering on the weekend slate of
games. While our overall season record still enjoys 10 games above the .500
mark, we really need to run away with victories in week 13 to provide a final
season advantage. Some very intriguing spreads are given from Vegas knowing
that some teams will begin their decent and preparation for their offseason. We
have our eyes set on the prize and will climb back with a solid showing on all
weekend contests. Let’s get to it…
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Week 12 Record: 5-7 (.420) | 2018 Season Record: 93-83 (.530)
ADF All-Time Record: 225-218 (.508)
NFL WEEK 13 – Predictions
(Projected odds makers @ November.29.2018 – 12:00 PM EST)
Thursday Nov.29.2018
New
Orleans (Favorite) @ Dallas
Westgate -7.5
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -7.5
Unibet -7.5
SportSelect -7.5
The New Orleans Saints travel this week to Dallas to
face off against the Cowboys as both squads enjoyed a victory on turkey day.
This will be the first meeting between these two clubs since 2015 and should be
a great contest now that Dallas has corrected its offensive troubles. Amari
Cooper not only has put up stats and touchdowns to lift this team, but his
presence alone has allowed Zeke Elliott to see less stacked boxes in the
process. Drew Brees and the Saints continue to roll regardless of who is on the
field. Brees found pretty much every receiver on the roster last week and
should again be able to pick apart a sound defense in Dallas. While this spread
does appear to be a little high for our liking, it’s impossible to go away from
what New Orleans is doing. We will bite on what Vegas is giving us.
NO
covers the spread @ -7 NO 10 DAL 13 (L)
Sunday Dec.2.2018
Baltimore
@Atlanta (Favorite)
Westgate -1
Caesar’s -1.5
William Hill -1
Wynn -1
Unibet -1.5
SportSelect +0.5
The Atlanta season is all but lost after dropping a
key divisional matchup verse the Saints last week showing lack of any
motivation on both sides of the ball. The Falcons have always shown better
effort at home and should provide more punch this week to keep their slim
playoff hopes alive. The Ravens must endure long travel to the South with
rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson seeing his first action on the road in his
young career making this a difficult test. The odds makers haven’t giving much
in terms of a spread hinting at the fact that Joe Flacco might have a shot to
return to action. Regardless, we don’t believe that Baltimore will move away
from Jackson this week even if Joe is healthy enough to start. We wouldn’t be
surprised to see the Ravens come away with the W in this one, but we will side
with the home team this week.
ATL
covers the spread @ -1 BAL 26 ATL 16 (L)
Chicago (Favorite) @ NY Giants
Westgate N/A
Caesar’s N/A
William Hill -4.5
Wynn N/A
Unibet -4
SportSelect N/A
The division leading Chicago Bears continue to pile up
wins even now without their starting pivot at the helm. Backup quarterback
Chase Daniel did more than enough to manage last week’s contest while his
defense closed the game out with a late pick 6. Mitchell Trubisky’s
availability for the match is again in question with an injured shoulder
leaving Vegas to only supply two spreads to this point. The Giants dropped a
game last week that saw them in complete control early on, to only have a
ginormous letdown while losing the contest. The Bears haven’t been any worse
for wear on the road this season and won’t have to endure heavy miles for this
one in New York. Still seeing a 4.5 point favorite to the Bears without
Trubisky is a little surprising, but a clear indication of the trust Vegas has
in this defense. It’s becoming difficult to beat against the Bears in any
situation with this elite defensive unit.
CHI
covers the spread @ -4 CHI 27 NYG 30 (L)
Buffalo @ Miami (Favorite)
Westgate -4.5
Caesar’s -4.5
William Hill -5
Wynn -5.5
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -5.5
The return of the Bills rookie gun slinger Josh Allen
provided an instant uptick in offensive production while the defense put the
shackles on their opponent. Taking long travel to Miami to face off against the
Dolphins who showed extreme competitiveness while losing by a mere 3 points to
the Colts, could have their hands full with the Bills. When Buffalo puts
everything together, they appear to have solid fight in them keeping games
closer in the process. Miami is a strange team that appears to possess no identity
changing up the approach from week to week. Coach Adam Gase has found success
when Kenyan Drake is more involved and should be used much like he was last
week. Buffalo has a defense that can shut down offenses and will be looking to
make life tough on Ryan Tannehill. This contest should be decided by a field
goal.
MIA
doesn’t cover the spread @ -5.5 BUF 17 MIA 21 (W)
Denver (Favorite) @ Cincinnati
Westgate -5
Caesar’s -5
William Hill -5
Wynn -5
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -4.5
This contest has two teams potential remaining season
outlooks gearing up to go in opposite directions. The Broncos appear to be a
team on the rise still more than alive in the playoff race while holding a
remaining schedule vastly superior to that of most in the NFL. Taking their
talents to Cincinnati to face off against backup quarterback Jeff Driskel, you
would have to think Von Miller is licking his chops. The Bengals failed to
provide the hometown faithful with anything positive looking to be on a great
decline with high probability of missing the post season. With the spread that
Vegas is placing in front of our eyes, we’d be lying if we said we didn’t think
it was a little high. With that said, Denver has run the ball very well opening
up the play action pass for Case Keenum. Denver should have no issue disposing
of the Bengals in this one.
DEN
covers the spread @ -4.5 DEN 24 CIN 10 (W)
LA Rams (Favorite) @ Detroit
Westgate -10
Caesar’s -10
William Hill -10
Wynn -10
Unibet -9.5
SportSelect -9.5
Coming off the bye-week
after that incredible Monday Night slugfest with the Chiefs, the Rams travel to
Mo-Town to face the struggling Lions. Detroit had great optimism going into
this season that wrongs could be fixed in year one under Matt Patricia, but
alas, the same outcome is upon us. The loss of Cooper Kupp for the Rams was
supposed to be felt, but the genius of coach McVay won’t allow it. Using other
options on the team to pick up the slack will again be on display while
continuing to ride Todd Gurley to victory. The Lions will simply be out matched
in this one and shouldn’t be able to muster much of anything. Rams take this
one quite easily.
LAR covers the spread @ -10 LAR 30 DET 16 (W)
Indianapolis (Favorite) @ Jacksonville
Westgate -4
Caesar’s -4
William Hill -4
Wynn -4
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -4.5
Admittedly, we may have gotten excited about the Colts
prospects of covering a near double digit spread on the Fins last week’s
failing to hit the mark. While we stand firm on that evaluation, we simply
can’t ignore the absolute tear Andrew Luck is currently on throwing touchdowns
virtually at will. Taking travel to Jacksonville is never an easy event for any
club, but seeing no Leonard Fournette, possibly no Jalen Ramsey, and starting
backup quarterback Cody Kessler, the Colts should have the upper hand.
Jacksonville’s season has been nothing short of an abomination, and Luck should
be able to come through in the clutch. We will stay on the bandwagon this week
and side with Indy.
IND
covers the spread @ -4 IND 0 JAX 6 (L)
Cleveland @ Houston (Favorite)
Westgate -5.5
Caesar’s -6
William Hill -6
Wynn -6
Unibet -6
SportSelect -6.5
Baker Mayfield and the Browns have looked dangerous
these last couple weeks showing they are definitely turning the corner. Baker’s
progression has been quite impressive this season showing great command of the
offense. Fellow rookie Nick Chubb has looked just as impressive running the
ball after Carlos Hyde was sent packing. Facing off against one of the hottest
clubs in the league, Cleveland will undoubtedly have a tough time against JJ
Watt and the Texans. Houston is winners of 8 straight games and are looking to
become a force in the AFC that really only possesses three other teams in elite
level class. Deshaun Watson has been doing more than enough to win games while
still struggling with finding that electric slide from a season ago. If this
contest was being played in the dawg-pound we might second guess the spread
Vegas has given, but playing at home should provide Houston another victory.
HOU
covers the spread @ -5.5 CLE 13 HOU 29 (W)
Arizona @ Green Bay (Favorite)
Westgate -14
Caesar’s -14
William Hill -14
Wynn -14
Unibet -13.5
SportSelect -14.5
The Green Bay Packers season is on deaths door as more
enigmatic performances provide the current outlook. Green Bay simply isn’t the
same team as it appears that Aaron Rodgers could be losing a step. Having an A+
matchup against the Cardinals at home in Lambo should transpire into an easy
win, but we will be honest, we hate this spread that is provided. The last time
we subscribed to a spread of this magnitude, the Cardinals were 15 point dogs
to the Chiefs that they in fact ruined. Arizona is simply not a sound club
having gaping holes all over this roster. Rookie quarterback Josh Rosen will
get his first experience on the frozen tundra, and it shouldn’t be favorable.
The Packers should come out in this one with high energy leaving them hard to
bet against. With that said, Green Bay has only covered twice this season at
home over 10 points.
GB
doesn’t cover the spread @ -14 ARZ 20 GB 17 (W)
Carolina
(Favorite) @ Tampa Bay
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3.5
William Hill -3.5
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
It’s been something of a conundrum to witness the
Panthers 3-game slide dropping them out of contention to win the NFC South
crown. Still possessing the lead in the wild card race, Carolina will have to
correct their losing ways quickly in a fantastic matchup against the Buccaneers
in Tampa. Cam Newton and the offense have played very well this season leaning
on second year pro Christian McCaffrey to shoulder much of the workload.
Defensively is where the shortfalls have been realized as this unit is truly a
shell of pervious editions. The Bucs season has literally nothing left to play
for other than roster spots and pride with Jameis Winston trying to prove he
should receive a new contract this offseason. While Tampa has shown life these last
two weeks with improved play, we see noting credible to suggest the Panthers
won’t find a way to win.
CAR
covers the spread @ -3.5 CAR 17 TB 24 (L)
Kansas City (Favorite) @ Oakland
Westgate -15
Caesar’s -15
William Hill -15
Wynn -15
Unibet -14.5
SportSelect -15.5
Much like the Rams coming off the bye after their
incredible Monday Night shootout, the Chiefs find themselves on the road with a
large double digit spread. The Oakland Raiders gave their best effort last week
verse the Ravens holding a 10-point spread in check until a defensive touchdown
foiled that mark. Patrick Mahomes and company are just too explosive and should
make easy work of the tanking Raiders. While 15 points is never something we
will ever like to be a part of, it’s impossible for us to believe that the
Chiefs won’t cover. Our one fear is that Kansas City will play down to this
opponent saving their efforts for the last 4 games on the schedule. Regardless
of the gut feeling to stay away from this huge spread, we will side with the
Chiefs off the bye week.
KC
covers the spread @ -14.5 KC 40 OAK 33 (L)
NY Jets @ Tennessee (Favorite)
Westgate -8
Caesar’s -8.5
William Hill -8.5
Wynn -8.5
Unibet -7.5
SportSelect -7.5
The Titans are this year’s version of Jekyll and Hyde
as we never truly know which version will take the field. Returning home after
dropping their match verse the Texans, Tennessee has a much easier opponent in
the New York Jets. New York held their own against the Patriots last week
showing they do have ability to at least compete. This game for the betting
public is an absolute trap as we could easily see the Titans winning this game
but not covering the spread. On the flip side, Marcus Mariota could have one of
his great performances lifting this club to a double digit victory. We have no
choice but to play it safe and stick with our first opinion.
TEN
doesn’t cover the spread @ -8.5 NYJ 22 TEN 26 (W)
San Francisco @ Seattle (Favorite)
Westgate -9.5
Caesar’s -10
William Hill -10
Wynn -10
Unibet -9.5
SportSelect -9.5
The inevitable rebuild of the Seahawks was the
narrative entering the season, and boy have they pulled the wool over
everyone’s eyes. Coach Carroll has done a magnificent job rallying the troops
proving he can provide results with far less while keeping a playoff spot in
their grasp. Having a glorious matchup this week at home verse the 49ers who
would like nothing more than to have this season end, Russell Wilson should put
on a show. San Francisco should still be licking their wounds from a disaster
of a performance against the Bucs and shouldn’t be able to provide anything
special here in front of the twelfth man. We will gladly take the points in
this match and not look back.
SEA
covers the spread @ -9.5 SF 16 SEA 43 (W)
Minnesota @ New England (Favorite)
Westgate -5
Caesar’s -5
William Hill -5.5
Wynn -5.5
Unibet -5.5
SportSelect -6.5
The Minnesota Vikings made easy work of their
divisional rival last week (the Packers) as they looked far more decisive on
both sides of the ball. The Vikings have one of the more difficult remaining
schedules to contend with and it all begins with a road visit to New England.
While the Patriots continue to move through the regular season treating it like
a formality, we have noticed a steep decline in the play of the great Tom
Brady. Still loaded with playmakers on the offense, Brady hasn’t been able to
generate that dominating skill that we’ve grown accustomed to. Kirk Cousins
himself has seen up and down play this season proving the Vikings as a whole
aren’t quite there yet. This contest will be a great test for both clubs to see
where they sit in terms of matching top level play. New England’s defense has
been more of a letdown this year than in the past and should have a tough time
stopping Diggs and Thielen. Turnovers will be massive in this contest and will
ultimately be the deciding factor. We can see a field goal late taking one of
these clubs over the top.
NE
doesn’t cover the spread @ -5.5 MIN 10 NE 24 (L)
LA Chargers @ Pittsburgh (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3.5
William Hill -3.5
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
Sunday Night Football hasn’t disappointed this season
and we are treated to yet another top flight contest. The Chargers take travel
to Pittsburgh to try and keep a good thing going without their star running
back Melvin Gordon. Philip Rivers has played very well this year and will have
to shoulder more of the load while hoping his backup runners can gain yards on
the ground. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have done great things this
season with LeVeon Bell, but it appears in crunch time, there is no question in
our mind that in these games, they would love to have him back. We should see a
great deal of points on the scoreboard in this one as both teams should be able
to match score for score until the game reaches its conclusion. We at ADF have
been great supporters of the Chargers from jump this season and will continue
to ride the ship.
PIT
doesn’t cover the spread @ -3.5 LAC 33 PIT 30 (W)
Monday Dec.3.2018
Washington
@ Philadelphia (Favorite)
Westgate -6.5
Caesar’s -6.5
William Hill -6.5
Wynn -7
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5
With the NFC East literally up for grabs now that Alex
Smith has been lost for the season, the Eagles find themselves in a great
situation to leapfrog their divisional foe in a key showdown on Monday Night
Football. Hosting the Redskins with Colt McCoy under center shouldn’t be much
of a difficult test, but given the amount of injures to Philly’s defense,
Washington could make this a game. The Skins will try and establish the run
game with Adrian Peterson while hitting quick dump offs to control the clock.
The Eagles are truly a shell of last year’s team but may have found an answer
to their struggling run attack. It’s not hard to envision the Eagles coming out
on top at home in this one, but we struggle to see them covering by a full touchdown.
PHI
doesn’t cover the spread @ -7 WAS 13 PHI 28 (L)
Week 13 Record: 8-8 (.500)
Note: All Day Football is
not responsible for any personal gains or losses as a result of its
predictions. Please play responsibly.
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