PLACE YOUR BETS!!! All good things eventually come to an end, and that clearly
was the case for our spread predictions last week. Taking one on the chin and
falling 4 games below .500 last week definitely wasn’t the way we had
envisioned our picks going. However, we at ADF still hold a positive 16 games
on the season and look to rebound from a week that left us scratching our
heads. It’s inevitable in the NFL to witness weeks from time to time go astray
then finding its way back to normalcy. With the Week 11 slate upon us, some
very interesting contests will again test our knowledge but we have the upmost
confidence that we’ll enjoy money back in our pockets. Follow us and we’ll get
you back on track. Let’s get to it…
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Week 10 Record: 5-9 (.360) |
2018 Season Record: 82-66 (.554)
ADF All-Time Record: 214-201
(.516)
NFL WEEK 11 – Predictions
(Projected odds makers @ November.15.2018 – 12:00PM EST)
BYE WEEK: Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, New England, NY
Jets, San Francisco
Thursday Nov.15.2018
Green
Bay @ Seattle (Favorite)
Westgate -2.5
Caesar’s -2.5
William Hill -2.5
Wynn -2.5
Unibet -2.5
The Packers proved that the NFL is truly a
week-to-week league after rebounding with a dominating performance against the
Dolphins only to face off verse Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on Thursday
Night Football. News reports came out last week that Vegas has been
hemorrhaging pay outs which was a clear indication of the spreads they posted a
week prior. This spread looks to be of the baiting variety even though we
understand the logic behind the decision. While Seattle at home is a very
difficult squad to beat, Green Bay is on life support for obtaining a wildcard
and should provide their best overall effort. The Packers leaned on their run
attack last week proving it’s imperative to create the play action pass to open
up their talented pass catchers down field. While Rodgers continues to be a
surgeon on the field, his counterpart in this contest (Russell Wilson) has
adjusted his game to create the highest percentage run attack in the league.
Controlling the clock and keeping the ball from Rodgers will ultimately be the
game plan for Seattle in this one, but we don’t see Aaron leaving the Pacific
North West without a win.
SEA
doesn’t cover the spread @ -2.5 GB 24 SEA 27 (L)
Sunday Nov.18.2018
Cincinnati
@ Baltimore (Favorite)
Westgate N/A
Caesar’s N/A
William Hill N/A
Wynn N/A
Unibet -4
As the Ravens come off the bye-week, they settle back
in at home to face off against the Bengals who will again be without super star
AJ Green. While most Vegas odds makers refused to place a spread on this
contest due in part to the uncertainty of Joe Flacco’s health status, only one
has given us a spread to contend with. Seeing the Ravens favored by 4 points
with the potential of Robert Griffin III or rookie Lamar Jackson starting this
game leaves us quite puzzled. We know from history what RG3 can do and feel
that Jackson isn’t quite ready for more work. The trap for a spread like this normally
falls to the lack of film the opposing team will have to create a sound game
plan giving the Ravens a possible leg up. Even though the Bengals were blown
out last week to the Saints, their showing should be much better against a
backup quarterback. This game will be closer than the line indicates.
BAL
doesn’t cover the spread @ -4 CIN 21 BAL 24 (W)
Carolina (Favorite) @ Detroit
Westgate -4
Caesar’s -4
William Hill -3.5
Wynn -4
Unibet -3.5
The Carolina Panthers endured their worst loss of the
season last week to the Steelers not being able to do much of anything
positive. Taking travel this week to Detroit on a long week off thanks in part
to Thursday Night Football, we fully expect Newton and company to be fully
prepared. The Detroit Lions continue to be the same club as we’ve seen in the
past leaving a lot on the field with poor execution and mistake filled
football. While playing at home provides some credence that a better outing is
on the horizon, we simply can’t see Matthew Stafford matching score for score
with Cam Newton. With that said, we would like to see the Panthers defense come
out stronger than they have these last few games, but we’ll bite and take the
spread here.
CAR
covers the spread @ -3.5 CAR 19 DET 20 (L)
Tennessee @ Indianapolis (Favorite)
Westgate -2.5
Caesar’s -2
William Hill -2.5
Wynn -2
Unibet -2.5
The Tennessee Titans seem to have found their grove
these last couple weeks showing a much improved level of play and execution. We
always knew their defense was upgraded, but with an offense that is looking
sharper by the week, the prospects get that much better for the team overall.
Marcus Mariota looks to have regained some of that moxie from last season
providing sound efforts in the last two contests. The Colts and Andrew Luck
have been playing very good football these last three weeks even though their
opponents haven’t been anything spectacular. Coming off a very solid victory
against the Jaguars, Luck and company look to keep things rolling verse a much
stronger foe. Vegas is playing to the notion that home field advantage should
carry the Colts to victory, but we feel this is when their short win streak
will come to an end.
IND
doesn’t cover the spread @ -2.5 TEN 10 IND 38 (L)
Dallas @ Atlanta (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3.5
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -3.5
While the Cowboys impressed last week knocking off the
Super Bowl Champion Eagles in Philadelphia, this week’s contest against a
Falcons group that dropped a very winnable game to the Browns should be rather
interesting. It’s no secret that the Falcons play far better under the dome
then on the road and should find their formula to once again execute. Dallas
looked much better offensively now that Amari Cooper has had a few weeks to
assimilate while leaning on the run game to set up the pass once again. Atlanta
received positive news that their star line backer Deion Jones is ready to
return from injured reserve adding a much needed play maker to the struggling
defense. This game should see a good level of competition and points scored
before its conclusion, and we find it difficult to bet against the Falcons
returning home in a must win.
ATL
covers the spread @ -3 DAL 22 ATL 19 (L)
Tampa Bay @ NY Giants (Favorite)
Westgate -1.5
Caesar’s -2
William Hill -1
Wynn -1.5
Unibet -1.5
Our endorsement of Eli Manning last week proved to be
sharp as the Giants returned from the bye looking far better than they have for
most of the season. Having another favorable matchup against the Buccaneers who
pile up yardage in bunches, we could literally see something of a defenseless
contest at MetLife Stadium. Tampa Bay surprisingly is the best team in the NFL
in terms of yardage produced offensively, but finding the endzone has become
something of an issue. Vegas has placed this contest basically as a pickem
match leaving the feeling that it could go either way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be
returning to New York where he played for many years and surely would feel
right at home on familiar turf. With that said, travel miles will be difficult
for the Bucs defense that has underwhelmed this season. We will stick with Eli
for one more week to get another victory for the big-blue.
NYG
covers the spread @ -1 TB 35 NYG 38 (W)
Houston (Favorite) @ Washington
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -2.5
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -2.5
The surging Houston Texans would admit they would’ve
deferred their bye-week to not interfere with their current winning ways.
Houston has won 6 games in a row with sound play in all facets of the game. The
Washington Redskins return home after slightly beating the Bucs on the road on
the strength of a bend but don’t break defense that held Tampa to 3 points
while giving up whopping 500 yards. Deshaun Watson should be able to find room
with his many playmakers exposing the inadequacies of this defense. Houston
should be able to score more points than Alex “check down” Smith leaving the
defense to mop up and hold Washington to under 15 points. We love the Texans
coming off the bye this week.
HOU
covers the spread @ -3 HOU 23 WAS 21 (L)
Pittsburgh (Favorite) @ Jacksonville
Westgate -5.5
Caesar’s -5.5
William Hill -5.5
Wynn -5.5
Unibet -5.5
While this contest at the
beginning of the season would’ve been circled on most calendars as a supremely
great matchup between two top notch clubs, now looks to be a David verse
Goliath type of scenario with nearly a touchdown spread to boot. With LeVeon Bell
no longer a distraction due to his holdout becoming final, the Steelers can
continue down their dominating way dismantling NFL clubs. The Jaguars defense
simply looks like a shell of their past units even though the same cast of
characters still reside on that side of the ball. Having Leonard Fournette
return from injury was a breath of fresh air only to see deflation on the scoreboard
last week against the Colts. This spread looks to be a little high for our
liking, but we will side with Vegas on this one.
PIT covers the spread @ -5.5 PIT 20 JAX 16 (L)
Denver @ LA Chargers (Favorite)
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -7
Unibet -7
We have been singing the praises of the Chargers all
off season and have continued that trend as the year has moved forward, but
this spread provided from our friends in Vegas is purely a bait to get your
money. While travel miles will be had by the Broncos, their defense has kept
them in games keeping things tight while the offense has let the club down on
more than one occasion. It’s not out of the question to see a letdown form
Denver, but coming off the bye-week with loads to prove, it should be a close
contest. The fear for us in not selecting Los Angeles to cover is the weaker
run defense that Denver possesses leaving the prospects of Melvin Gordon having
a field day. With that said, any team with talent on the defense like the
Broncos have and coming off a bye should be able to keep things close. Chargers
should win but they will struggle to cover.
LAC
doesn’t cover the spread @ -7 DEN 23 LAC 22 (W)
Oakland @ Arizona (Favorite)
Westgate -4
Caesar’s -4.5
William Hill -4
Wynn -4
Unibet -4.5
The game that literally no one will watch outside of
their respective fan bases, the Cardinals gear up to host the Raiders in the
desert with over a field goal spread to their name. Both clubs seasons have
been utter disappointments where Arizona looks to be retooling while the
Raiders entertain a full blown re-build. Simply put, the Cardinals have far
more talent on the roster as a whole and should lean on David Johnson to set
the tone. The Cardinals defense has played rather good football this season leaving
the offense the issue on the club. In games like these, picking higher than a
field goal spread is normally trouble for the pocket book, but in this case,
the Raiders literally are in tank mode.
ARZ
covers the spread @ -4 OAK 23 ARZ 21 (L)
Philadelphia @ New Orleans (Favorite)
Westgate -8
Caesar’s -9
William Hill -8
Wynn -8
Unibet -8.5
In our opinion as of today, the New Orleans Saints are
the best team in football behind the superb play of their future hall of famer
Drew Brees. The Saints are put together to near perfection with an offense that
can move the ball whenever they please. Defensively they have regressed
somewhat but are looking to turn the corner to round out this entire club.
While the Saints keep rolling, the Eagles continue to be on the wrong side of
things losing players and games which untimely should catch up with them. This
issue at hand has been the lack of any viable run attack to support Carson
Wentz for this offense. Adding to that, the defense has been a complete letdown
especially from the defensive front that was pegged to be a force in the
offseason with key free agents they brought in. Simply put, the Eagles are in
deep trouble with Ronald Darby being lost for the season going up against the
high octane offense of the Saints. Playing at home only adds to our endorsement
of choosing New Orleans in this one.
NO
covers the spread @ -8 PHI 7 NO 48 (W)
Minnesota
@ Chicago (Favorite)
Westgate -2.5
Caesar’s -2.5
William Hill -2.5
Wynn -3
Unibet -2.5
Sunday Night Football has flexed this contest to see a
much better matchup in a divisional showdown between the Bears and the Vikings.
Chicago has definitely impressed this season with potential coach of the year
candidate Matt Nagy corralling his troops to expel the most from week-to-week.
Mitchell Trubisky has been impressive in his second season showing the talent
that made him the first quarterback taken in the 2017 NFL draft. Minnesota has
been up and down this season showing great skill, then great demise not being
able to string everything together progressing each week. Coming off the bye
rested and ready to play on the road with short travel shouldn’t be too much of
an extraneous task. The spread in our minds is fair to provide less than a
field goal to the home side with a top notch defense making this a tight
contest. We went against our best judgement last week not siding with Chicago
and paying for it, only to return this week to support the Bears to keep
rolling. This game could go either way, but in the end, the Bears defense will
be the difference.
CHI
covers the spread @ -2.5 MIN 20 CHI 25 (W)
Monday Nov.19.2018
Kansas
City @ LA Rams (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3.5
William Hill -4
Wynn -3
Unibet -3.5
Monday Night in Mexico is no more due to field
concerns and player safety. The game has been rerouted back to Los Angeles
providing home field advantage to the Rams. LA has been one of the best in the
league this season but have legitimate issues on the defensive side of the
ball. Losing Aqib Talib early this season has proven to be monstrous on the
back end. While the Rams have endured issues of their own, the Chiefs have too
covered up their inadequacies with dominating offensive outputs. This game does
give the advantage to the Rams with a better defensive group, but don’t kid
yourself, this game should be out of control with offensive production. This
will be one of the best games of the season when all is said and done, and it
should be decided by who has the ball last. We smell a field goal being that
decisive factor as well.
LAR
doesn’t cover the spread @ -4 KC 51 LAR 54 (W)
Week 11 Record: 6-7 (.462)
Note: All Day Football is
not responsible for any personal gains or losses as a result of its
predictions. Please play responsibly.
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