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Week 4 Record: 6-9 (.400) | 2018 Season Record: 30-33
(.476)
ADF All-Time Record:
162-168 (.491)
NFL WEEK 5 – Predictions
(Projected odds makers @ October.4.2018 – 12:00PM EST)
BYE WEEK: Chicago, Tampa Bay
Thursday Oct.4.2018
Indianapolis
@ New England (Favorite)
Westgate -10
Caesar’s -10.5
William Hill -10
Wynn -10
Unibet -10
SportSelect -10.5
When will we learn, for years the Patriots have
confused the betting public when they start slow out of the gates, and then lay
a smack down on their opponents. This week the Pats host the much improved
defensive group in Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football. Offensively, Andrew
Luck doesn’t seem to be 100% while New England punched the Dolphins right in
the mouth last week. While we never appreciate large spreads like these on
short weeks, we have no choice but to go back to the well and endorse another
Patriots victory.
NE
covers the spread @-10 IND 24 NE 38 (W)
Sunday Oct.7.2018
Tennessee
(Favorite) @ Buffalo
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3.5
William Hill -3
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
Admittedly, we find it extremely difficult to understand
what the Tennessee Titans really are. It’s obvious their defense is much
improved from a year ago, but the output offensively leaves something to be
desired. Derrick Henry hasn’t been able to get any momentum to suggest he
should be feared, but if there was any contest to get back on track this should
be the one. The Bills are a team that clearly is in rebuild mode willing to
suffer the drawbacks in hope their rookie quarterback can learn valuable
lessons in the process. Playing in Buffalo is always a great challenge with a
home town crowd as loud as any in the league, but the Titans should be able to
get past Bills-Mafia without much trouble.
TEN
covers the spread @ -3 TEN 12 BUF 13 (L)
Atlanta
@ Pittsburgh (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -3
SportSelect -3.5
The Falcons are a group that has been decimated with
injury on the defensive side of the ball, leaving the offense to entertain
shootouts in hops to win. Travelling to Pittsburgh this week after dropping a
heart break last second to the Bengals, Atlanta surely needs to steal this contest
to keep pace in the NFC. Pittsburgh doesn’t appear to be the same team thus far
as they continue to try and adjust without their star LeVeon Bell. With that
said, we feel like the Steelers will try and get Antonio Brown the ball in
bunches this week in hopes to exploit the banged up secondary. Atlanta never
travels well to the east and we could see Pittsburgh rebounding from their loss
last week.
PIT
covers the spread @ -3 ATL 17 PIT 41 (W)
Denver (Favorite) @ NY Jets
Westgate -1
Caesar’s -1
William Hill -1
Wynn -1
Unibet -1
SportSelect -0.5
The Denver Broncos gave a valiant effort on Monday
Night Football against Patrick Mahomes showing their defense is still up to the
challenge of being a top flight unit. This week traveling to New York to face
the Jets, we are shocked to see Vegas only favoring Denver by a single point. The
Jets haven’t shown they are ready (just yet) to beat out teams with greater
skill, and Sam Darnold will have to clean up his turnover issues to have a shot
in this one. This game seems like a slam dunk pick to us as Vegas baits the
public to increase the money line on the Jets.
DEN
covers the spread @ -1 DEN 16 NYJ 34 (L)
Jacksonville @ Kansas City (Favorite)
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -3
SportSelect -3.5
This is perhaps the most difficult contest of the week
to predict as the Chiefs have a home date against the best defense in the NFL.
As more tape is forming on the young superstar in the making (Patrick Mahomes),
the Broncos did show that it’s possible to rattle the young pivot with immense
pressure, but it was Mahomes great elusiveness that foiled their day.
Jacksonville will undoubtedly take a page out of last week’s Monday Night
contest to force Patrick out of the pocket while leaving line backers close to
the line to chase him down. Even with that said, this Kansas City offense is
very explosive and can score at will finding the many options they employ. It’s
difficult to envision Blake Bortles taking part in executing a shootout in this
one as the defense will have their hands full. If Mahomes can take down the
best in the business (the defense) there is no question he is something
special.
KC
covers the spread @ -3 JAX 14 KC 30 (W)
Green Bay (Favorite) @ Detroit
Westgate -1.5
Caesar’s -1.5
William Hill -1.5
Wynn -1.5
Unibet -1
SportSelect -1.5
The Packers received a gift last week playing a Bills
team that clearly isn’t up to par with the rest in the league. It’s clear Aaron
Rodgers is still struggling from his knee injury as they head to Detroit in a
key divisional matchup against the Lions. When we review what the Lions have
done so far this season, we have feelings of an underwhelming nature. Detroit doesn’t
appear to be any closer to becoming a contender this season, and will be tested
greatly even with a hobbled Rodgers throwing the ball. This game has the
potential to become something of a shootout under the dome, but we find it
difficult to see the Packers dropping this one even with their receiver
injuries.
GB
covers the spread @ -1.5 GB 23 DET 31 (L)
Baltimore (Favorite) @ Cleveland
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5
The Baltimore Ravens appear to be the front runners in
the AFC North by playing solid defense and finally having an offense that can consistently
move the ball. Cleveland and the Baker Mayfield infusion has the league a foot
with great excitement, but dropping last week’s contest to the Raiders proved
they still have issues to iron out. Baker hasn’t seen a defensive grouping like
this yet in the pros, and we could truly witnesses a welcome to the NFL moment.
This game could still become quite competitive as it moves forward, but we
believe the Ravens will be far too much for the Browns to handle. The Ravens continue
to stride forward.
BAL
covers the spread @ -3 BAL 9 CLE 12 (L)
NY Giants @ Carolina (Favorite)
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -7
Unibet -7
SportSelect -7.5
It’s becoming clear that head coach Pat Shurmur has
instructed Eli Manning to be more careful with the ball in hopes of not turning
it over with high regularity. While the assessment in theory is nice, Eli doesn’t
appear to have the same confidence when throwing the ball early on. As New York
tries to improve, the Panthers are coming in fresh off their early bye-week,
having extra preparation for the visiting Giants. This spread from Vegas is
rather interesting but we fully understand the reasoning. While we never
subscribe to betting against a talented and rested home team, we took great deliberations
to choose a side. In the end, in the Giants three losses this season, they have
lost by an average of nine points in all three contests. Hard to go against
that rational.
CAR
covers the spread @ -7 NYG 31 CAR 33 (L)
Miami @ Cincinnati (Favorite)
Westgate -5.5
Caesar’s -6
William Hill -6
Wynn -6
Unibet -5.5
SportSelect -6.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and their late game heroics
last week in Atlanta have inflated their spread this week as they host the
Dolphins Sunday afternoon. While it’s becoming very difficult to not believe in
what Dalton and company are doing, thinking the Fins will lay another egg much like
last week has us perplexed with the current line. Cincinnati does look very
strong on offense and usually house a difficult environment for visiting teams
to play in. While we do feel that Ryan Tannehill requires the run game to be
clicking to extract the best from his game, we haven’t seen much credence to
back that argument. We are forced to side with the home team.
CIN
covers the spread @ -6 MIA 17 CIN 27 (W)
Oakland @ LA Chargers (Favorite)
Westgate -5
Caesar’s -4.5
William Hill -5
Wynn -5.5
Unibet -5.5
SportSelect -5.5
The Los Angeles Chargers have been an utter disappointment
so far this season on the defensive side of the ball which was geared to be a
major force at the start of the season. Philip Rivers has done his job to help
move this offense in the right direction, but again underachieving has been the
output for this Chargers team. Oakland is still learning how to develop under
the new system, which bared fruit last week, as they found themselves in a
shootout with the Browns. We at ADF still have belief in Derek Carr finding his
way to levels seen from the past, and facing a divisional test could again
bring the best out in him. The Chargers may win this contest, but they need to
prove they can close teams out before we subscribe to another large spread.
LAC
doesn’t cover the spread @ -5.5 OAK 10 LAC 26 (L)
Arizona @ San Francisco (Favorite)
Westgate -4
Caesar’s -4
William Hill -4
Wynn -4
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -4.5
Josh Rosen and the Cardinals travel to San Francisco
to face off against the Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers. San Fran was rather
impressive in their first game without their franchise pivot showing class and
moxie in the process. The Cardinals could be a team on the rise with their
rookie signal caller now anointed as the fulltime leader of the pack. Offensive
coordinator Mike McCoy seemed to get out of his own way last week finally
providing David Johnson more touches to help the offense generate more production.
We will gamble on this one believing Rosen will find a way to help the Cards
become victorious.
SF
doesn’t cover the spread @ -4 ARZ 28 SF 18 (W)
Minnesota @ Philadelphia (Favorite)
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
Unibet -3
SportSelect -3.5
The Eagles dropped a close contest last week to the
Titans which should’ve been rather easy on paper. Coming into this week against
the high flying Vikings, we are quite shocked to see the spread favor the
former Super Bowl Champs. Both defenses haven’t played up to par this season, especially
Minnesota who stacked that side of the ball to be a dominate unit. Kirk Cousins
continues to look very solid spreading the ball all over the field to his
supporting cast. This game had early signs of a defensive showdown when the schedule
makers picked this one, but the onset has us envisioning a potential shootout in
the city of brotherly love. The Eagles will again go down in a very important
contest.
PHI
doesn’t cover the spread @ -3 MIN 23 PHI 21 (W)
LA Rams (Favorite) @ Seattle
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -7
Unibet -7
SportSelect -7.5
It appears nothing can stop the Rams high flying offense
while the defense closes the door late in games to secure their victories.
Jared Goff looks absolutely fantastic in year two of the McVay installation
finding open receivers and not forcing the issue. Seattle has played admirably
so far this year taking down teams on the back of their star Russell Wilson. While
travel to Seattle to face off against the twelfth-man would’ve given any team migraines,
this group isn’t the same and the Rams will continue to roll with ease. Double
digit victory is easily seen from Los Angeles in this one.
LAR
covers the spread @ -7 LAR 33 SEA 31 (L)
Dallas @ Houston (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3.5
Unibet -3
SportSelect -3.5
On paper before the season began, this contest
appeared to be something special between two clubs that were on the rise.
Houston hasn’t been as explosive as they were last season with Watson running
the show, but last week proved they could be on the uptrend. While we mentioned
last week that the Cowboys need to rely more on Zeke Elliott to remove pressure
form Dak Prescott, that game plan was exactly what transpired. Elliott was a
beast racking up yardage in chunks leaving the defense gassed. Ultimately that
assisted Prescott to one of his best showings so far this season. We fully
believe Dallas will again dare the opposition to stop Zeke while they look for
openings to make plays. Watson will have to be on his best if they want to
sneak out a win in the battle of Texas.
Houston
covers the spread @ -3 DAL 16 HOU 19 (W)
Monday Oct.8.2018
Washington
@ New Orleans (Favorite)
Westgate -6.5
Caesar’s -6.5
William Hill -6.5
Wynn -6.5
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5
Drew Brees and the Saints stay home for this Monday
Night Football contest against the Redskins who are fresh coming off the bye. Seeing
Vegas hit the public with a touchdown spread could be a little ambitious as
Alex Smith should be able to find holes in a defense that has completely regressed.
While New Orleans have placed the entire run attack on the back of Alvin
Kamara, they receive Mark Ingram back from suspension which should be a welcome
site to the entire offense. This game could become very entertaining with many
points put up on the board. While New Orleans should come out on top in this
one, we expect a closer result than what Vegas is suggesting.
NO
doesn’t cover the spread @ -6.5 WAS 19 NO 43 (W)
WEEK 5 Record: 8-7 (.533)
Note: All Day Football is
not responsible for any personal gains or losses as a result of its
predictions. Please play responsibly.
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