As we enter the mid-point of the NFL season, winning games in
fantasy football becomes that much more important to secure a place in the
playoffs to get that coveted championship ring. Bye-Weeks continue to hamper
rosters leaving it extremely significant to start and sit the right players.
This week’s edition does house some high profile names and some lesser trusted
talent to make a difference. Never give up in fantasy football as your outlook
could drastically change with a couple victories. Let’s get to it…
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START - GET THEM IN YOUR LINEUP
Quarterbacks:
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
While the Vikings have been able to win their last three contests,
Kirk Cousins hasn’t necessarily been the reason for those victories. His play
has been steady but not spectacular hitting less than 20 points in the last
three contests. This week having a primetime showdown with the Saints on Sunday
Night Football should bring out the best in Kirk. New Orleans gives up the 2nd
most to fantasy quarterbacks which should bode well for Cousins this week. This
contest should erupt into a shootout leaving both Cousins and Brees matching
shot-for-shot. It’s not out of the question to witness Kirk amass statistics
over 300 passing yards and at least 2 touchdowns.
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
What can we say about the Bears young star in the making? Mitchell
Trubisky has been on another level these last few weeks which has made us take
notice buying what he’s selling. In his last three contests, Trubisky has been
able to generate a whopping 120 fantasy points while throwing for just over
1000 yards and hitting 11 touchdown passes, incredible. While this pace is
truly unsustainable, the Bears have a juicy matchup against the Jets who allow
opposing quarterbacks to garner middle of the pack numbers. Coach Nagy has this
offense humming and executing fantastically to the point Mitchell is becoming a
weekly starter. If the thought process is to play Trubisky over the likes of
Cam Newton or Ben Roethlisberger, we can’t argue and would actually endorse the
move.
Jameis Winston (TB)
We at ADF preached the play of Jameis Winston a couple weeks ago to
which he rewarded us with a very sound performance. That recommendation has
once again come for the Tampa Bay pivot to start this week with a very sound
matchup on the horizon. Even though the Buccaneers travel to Cincinnati to play
on the road, the Bengals defense has been rather anemic at stopping big plays
from happening. Giving up the 5th most to fantasy quarterbacks, the
Bengals should be in tough to guard the many receiving talents the Bucs employ
leaving Jameis to throw darts all over the field. It’s definitely not out of
the question to see Winston go over 300 yards and 2-3 touchdowns on Sunday
afternoon.
Running Backs:
Phillip Lindsay (DEN)
While the Broncos appear to be on life support in the AFC West,
undrafted rookie Phillip Lindsay has been a breath of fresh air to a run game
that has been much improved. With his teammate Royce Freeman nursing an injured
ankle, even if he suits up for this contest his usage may be limited leaving
Lindsay the featured back to start. Phillip has been uber-productive only
seeing one contest go below the 10 fantasy point mark with a ceiling of 17 points.
Going up against the Chiefs this week who give up the 2nd most to
running backs, Denver should employ a heavy run approach in attempts to keep
Mahomes off the field. An endzone trip should almost be a formality this week
for Lindsay.
Adrian Peterson (WAS)
As the Redskins quietly continue to win games leading the way in the
division, Adrian Peterson has seemingly found rejuvenation in his aging legs to
lead the team in rushing while helping to assist in setting up the play action
pass. While the yardage has been there for AP these last couple weeks, he
hasn’t found the endzone since week three to lift his numbers to levels we’d
expect. Going up against the Giants who will literally be packing it in as one
of the worst teams in the league, all signs point to a solid outing for
Peterson and the Skins. Adding to that, with recent news that the Gaints will
be without their stud line backer Alec Ogletree for this match, lanes should be wide for Adrian to run through. Fire up AP and don’t think twice.
James White (NE)
Our infatuation for James White this season has been real as we’ve
promoted the talented running back on more than one occasion. This week it
appears to be an absolute no brainer with New England going up against the
Bills who can’t seem to do much of anything on both sides of the ball. With
rookie Sony Michel on the wrong side of health and looking doubtful to dress
for this contest, James White will have an expanded role that would suggest he
could find the endzone multiple times. White should find his way to being a top
five fantasy producer this week.
Raheem Mostert (SF)
It almost appears there’s a new man in town that has caught the eye
of coach Shanahan and his name is Raheem Mostert. While he hasn’t exploded on
the stat sheet as of yet, Mostert has definitely carved out a role for himself
on this 49ers offense that should continue to bear fruit heading into this
contest against the Cardinals. His appeal could be a little more than his
teammate Matt Breida moving forward with Raheem possessing better hands making
him a better option in the pass game. Going up against the Cardinals this week
who give up the most to fantasy backs, we truly see a very good day for
Mostert.
Wide
Receivers:
Robert Woods (LAR)
In one of the better contests to don the week eight slate, the Rams
and Robert Woods faceoff against the Green Bay Packers. Woods has been very
solid so far this season generating a healthy 108.13 PPR fantasy points leading
the way as the top receiver on the club. With Cooper Kupp poised to miss yet
another game with his injured knee, we fully expect Robert to again be the
number one target for Jared Goff. Even though the Packers give up middle of the
pack numbers to opposing wide receivers and look to get stud rookie Jaire
Alexander back from injury this week, Woods will yet again be a PPR darling for
your team. Robert hasn’t found the endzone since week four but should find pay
dirt in this one.
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)
Since the offseason, we at ADF have been singing the praises of the
Broncos Emmanuel Sanders to which he has rewarded us with being one of the best
wide-outs in all of fantasy so far this season. Going up against the Chiefs in
a monster divisional showdown, Sanders should again be featured seeing lesser
coverage on his side with Thomas drawing the top cover corners. Over the last
two weeks, Sanders has lifted his game to see an average of 24.2 fantasy points
scored giving Case Keenum a vow of confidence to keep looking in his direction.
It’s clear that Patrick Mahomes will continue his torrid pace throwing
touchdowns in bunches leaving the Bronco offense attempting to match. Sanders
will have another large showing this week.
John Brown (BAL)
The Ravens John Brown has been absolutely fantastic this season
leading all receivers on the club while getting back to business last week with
a great game. Even though the Ravens travel to Carolina to face the Panthers
defense that has seen improvement these last few weeks, their secondary still
has abundant weaknesses that should allow Brown to get free on more than on
occasion. It’s quite easy for us to make a case for all the Ravens receivers in
this contest, but Brown has proven to be the most consistent at finding the
endzone. Crabtree and Snead should also have a role which could limit the
overall productivity for Brown, but his appeal is with big plays, and there
should be more than one this week.
Taylor Gabriel (CHI)
Our heightened appreciation for what coach Nagy has been able to
accomplish so far this season with this young offense will continue as the
Bears host the Jets. Nagy comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree that loves to
highlight speedy talent creating mismatches on the field. Gabriel and Cohen fit
that mantra of game breakers that can strike at any moment. For players such as
these, game plan specific situations usually dictate their output which the
Jets give favor to Taylor having a handsome performance. Cooling off last week
in terms of production, Taylor should have a very solid bounce back against New
York who gives up the 5th most to fantasy receivers. It’s not out of
the question to see Gabriel find the endzone again here.
Tight-Ends:
Kyle Rudolph (MIN)
Some may scoff at the notion of the Vikings Kyle Rudolph finding
ways to improve his performance against the Saints who are great at covering
opposing tight-ends. It’s no secret that Kyle has fallen off a cliff these last
four weeks leaving some fantasy owners looking for other options. Normally the
trend with slumping players of this talent level should correct itself and this
will be the week Rudolph gets back on track. His targets over the last three
weeks has been the concern, as Cousins has looked to his direction a mere 14
times in that span. His teammate Stefon Diggs has been the culprit stealing the
target share to a whopping 30 over the last three games, with limited
production. It’s impossible for us to believe that coach Zimmer will continue
to force feed Diggs to that level opening up a nice opportunity for Kyle to get
back on track.
OJ Howard (TB)
It couldn’t be clearer to us at ADF that the Bucs coaching staff
have the appetite to keep their athletic tight-end OJ Howard a big part of this
offense. Beating out Cameron Brate for targets and playing time week-to-week
should provide confidence that OJ will again see his fair share of the
workload. The Bengals give up the 4th most to tight-ends and will be
without key contributors this week on defense. Howard has been very reliable
when he’s been on the field and possesses a ceiling of 15 fantasy points with a
floor of 10. You could do a lot worse than OJ this week; get him in your
lineup.
SIT - LEAVE
THEM ON THE BENCH
Quarterbacks:
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
This is perhaps an unpopular opinion this week, but we have no
choice but to suggest placing Big-Ben on the bench against the Browns. While we
understand that Pittsburgh is fresh coming off the bye, the Steelers have again
shown that they play to the level of their competition and struggle in the pass
game when facing a solid defensive club. The last time these teams met back in
week one, it ended in a tie and limited Ben to an abysmal 9.77 points. While we
can see an improvement on those numbers, it’s tough to see them not feeding the
run game which has been the achilles heel of the Browns defense.
Cam Newton (CAR)
While Cam Newton has been quite consistent this season racking up
solid numbers in the process, this week is the week to sit that talented
quarterback as they face one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Ravens
give up the 2nd fewest points to quarterbacks and should have a
tough game plan ready to rattle the Panthers star. Adding to that, it’s been
documented that Cam is dealing with soreness in his throwing arm which is never
a positive given the amount of punishment he normally endures. He will have
better days and we have no qualms to suggest benching him this week.
Alex Smith (WAS)
As the Redskins move down the path to becoming a very good club
overall, this week shouldn’t be kind to Alex Smith being anything more than an
average to below average quarterback against the Giants. Washington will lean
on the run game to batter the New York defense seeing Smith continue his
obvious output of checking down his passes to Chris Thompson and company. The
receiving core has been decimated by injury and Alex has been unable to create
any chemistry with tight-end Jordan Reed leaving his options limited. If you
require a bye-week passer to fill the void, you could do a lot better than Alex
Smith this week.
Running Backs:
Corey Clement (PHI)
Even as we are witness to the Jaguars imploding upon themselves
right in front of our eyes, we fully believe that the Eagles will have a
difficult time running the ball this week in London. Jacksonville still gives
up the 9th least to fantasy backs making it quite the task for the
Eagles to generate much on the ground. Clement would possess some PPR upside
with the potential to find the endzone on a screen pass or dump-off, but the
likelihood of that coming to fruition is small.
Isaiah Crowell (NYJ)
The New York Jets are a team that now have lost their top two wide
receivers for this contest and will look to lean on Crowell to carry the load.
Unfortunately for Isaiah, his challenge facing the Bears front seven that has
been very solid this season will again feel like he is trying to run through a
brick wall. Chicago gives up the 5th least to fantasy runners and
with an offense depleted of pass catchers, we fully expect this play to be an
upright bust in week eight. Look elsewhere to fill your running back
needs.
Aaron Jones (GB)
With a great match coming our way between the Packers and the Rams;
it’s difficult to believe that the run game for Green Bay will be anything more
than a letdown. Overall the Packers still can’t seem to get their run attack
moving to the point that it could be taken seriously from week-to-week. Also,
Los Angeles employs a run defense that rivals the best in the business and will
again be on high alert to shut down the run game. We should me a multitude of
points grace the scoreboard in this one, but none of it will come from Aaron
Jones.
Wide
Receivers:
Marvin Jones (DET)
The Detroit Lions seem to be turning a corner now that Matt Patricia
has pushed his agenda to get his run attack moving in the right direction. The
one player in this offense that has taken a backseat to everything productive
has been last year revelation in Marvin Jones. With the impressive play of
second year receiver Kenny Golladay, Jones has become something of a decoy on
this offense and should remain that way this week against the Seahawks. Seattle
has played better on defense than we predicted early this offseason limiting
receivers to the 19th fewest points in the league. Can’t trust Jones
at this point.
Josh Gordon (NE)
Some view this contest as a must start for Josh Gordon going up
against the Bills, but we must caution that thought process as Buffalo does in
fact employ a very sound defensive back group. Tre White should draw the
assignment to Gordon’s side more often than not leaving his safeties to help
clean up where he lets down. While Josh has seen a healthy amount of targets
these last couple weeks gaining the trust of Tom Brady, we feel the Patriots
will choose to exploit the Bills with whoever is open on the field. Josh could
find his way to have a decent game but we really don’t like the matchup.
Nelson Agholor (PHI)
The disappearing man who’s fallen from grace in the fantasy
community, the Eagles Nelson Agholor will provide little relief to suggest he
will get back on track against the Jaguars. Even as the Jags have seemingly
began their decent of effort feeling the pinch of carrying the offense getting
burnt all over the field in the process. Agholor has become nothing more than a
check down option for Carson Wentz. Mediocre PPR stats will be the outcome if
you intend to start him on Sunday.
Tight-Ends:
Greg Olsen (CAR)
It appears to us that the Panthers are using kid-gloves to get Olsen
back in this offense to the dominating force he once was. Fearing over usage
could once again aggravate his existing foot injury that has cost him many
games over the last two seasons; they also have a difficult task of playing a
top-flight defensive club. While we do see encouragement for Olsen’s outlook
moving forward this season, this is a contest that we want no part of for the
Panthers offense.
POTENTIAL BIG
DAY – ALL ABOUT THE RISK/REWARD
Quarterbacks:
Andrew Luck (IND)
Admittedly, we failed our prediction last week on Andrew Luck thinking
he wouldn’t be able to perform to high levels, which he did making us look
foolish. This week we will jump back on the Luck train given the fantastic
matchup in front of him going up against the Raiders who have packed it in
already for the season. Players are very clear that they will not give up their
body for a system in full tank-mode, to which Oakland is clearly in. With that
state of affairs looking quite grim, Andrew Luck should have a field day.
Andy Dalton (CIN)
The Bengals took one on the chin last week showing they don’t belong
amongst the cream of the crop in the NFL just yet, but Andy Dalton and company
should be able to rebound quite nicely this week with a home date against the
Buccaneers. Tampa Bay gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks making
this a great opportunity for Dalton to rebound providing a very sound
stat-line. Andy has seen a ceiling of more than 30 points this season which
could be replicated in this prime matchup. If you require a filler for bye week
troubles, Andy should provide relief.
Running Backs:
Doug Martin (OAK)
The easy evaluation suggesting that Doug Martin will have a good day
because he is now the lead back for the Raiders is quite lazy to be honest.
Realistically, Martin is coming in fresh with limited game play so far this
season and should be leaned upon to try and jump start this run attack against
the Colts who have struggled to stop the run. The Raiders will employ a RBBC
approach which could limit Martin’s overall output, but we could easily see the
muscle-hamster find the endzone in this one.
Trenton Cannon (NYJ) (PPR)
Some reading this will say “who is Trenton Cannon” and why is he
listed as a potential big day candidate? Well since you ask, Cannon is a rookie
running back that was selected in the 6th round of the 2018 NFL
draft and has been thrust into the supporting role now that Bilal Powell has
been sent to injured reserve. Cannon has a good skillset that will show in the
pass game when Sam Darnold checks down to relive pressure. Going up against the
Bears this week is a very difficult test, but garbage time points should be the
name of the game for Trenton. If you’re stuck this week, Cannon could be the
help you need.
Carlos Hyde (JAX)
After sitting out last week’s contest due in part to the late week
trade to the Jaguars, Carlos Hyde will once again get a fresh start with a new
team. Jacksonville has been underwhelming in the run game which has been the
preferred scheme for this offense and not achievable without Leonard Fournette.
We absolutely love the prospects of Hyde on this offense with his brand of hard
nose running comparable to the system they ran with Fournette in the lineup.
Learning the playbook on the fly will be a heavy ask of Hyde, but we have quite
a bit of faith that he’ll overcome. Volume should be high in his first action
in a Jags uniform.
Wide
Receivers:
Kenny Golladay (DET)
As the Lions come off their bye-week and host the Seattle Seahawks,
we attempted to find any data that would suggest Golladay could be shut down in
this contest. Alas, we couldn’t find anything tangible to support the case as
Kenny will be a featured product this week on the field. The Hawks sit around
half way in regards to points giving up to fantasy receivers and will have a
very difficult time stopping the talented playmaker. Kenny should lead all the wide
receivers this week for Detroit.
Willie Snead (BAL)
Last week we gave a solid endorsement to Willie Snead in a revenge
game against his former club (the Saints) and he let us down with extreme
failure. This week we will once again drink the Kool-Aid recommending Willie as
a potential to have a break out performance. While the Panthers strength is in
defending the run, the backend has holes that can be exploited especially with
all the attention Crabtree and Brown will occupy. Snead saw a healthy amount
targets (7) last week but wasn’t able to turn them into anything special. One
more week of believing before we jump off the boat for Snead.
Donte Moncrief (JAX)
With Carlos Hyde anchoring the run game this week for Jacksonville,
the play action pass should see a jolt of improvement leaving Donte Moncrief a
great benefactor. Donte has been hit-or-miss so far this season and the key has
been to try and predict when he’ll be used more prevalently. Facing the Eagles
who’ve struggled to stop the pass game, Bortles will attempt more than a few
shots to his direction in hopes to garner big gains. While the bust factor
remains on high for Moncrief, we could see a very good day in London.
Martavis Bryant (OAK)
With the Raiders shipping their star Amari Cooper to the Cowboys in
a trade this week, the troubled talents of Martavis Bryant could be on display
as Derek Carr needs to focus his targets elsewhere. Most weeks we wouldn’t even
look in the direction of Bryant, but this could be something productive.
Obviously there is a high chance at this play being a bust, but if you have the
kahunas to place him in a flex spot, you might get rewarded.
Tight-Ends:
Jimmy Graham (GB)
While the Rams are a group that have
played very well on the defensive side this season, they do struggle in
defending the tight-end position to see their ranking sit at the 10th
worst. Jimmy Graham hasn’t been the revelation we would’ve thought coming into
the season but has seen his target share increase nicely these last three
games. The Rams will put their best foot forward in attempts to shut down
Davante Adams, leaving Jimmy as a potential huge day performer.
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