Our Week 4 predictions saw a healthy number of successors and high
point earners with a limited amount of misses on our slate. As we enter week 5
of the fantasy football season, wins are that much more valuable to keep you moving
in the right direction. Finding the correct matchups to provide you that needed
advantage will go a long way for your team being victorious this week. There
are some very intriguing contests on the weekend schedule that should see a lot
of points on the scoreboard. Good luck, let’s get to it…
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START - GET THEM IN YOUR LINEUP
Quarterbacks:
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
The
Steelers seem to have an internal struggle at the moment with Big-Ben and
Antonio Brown regarding the number of targets that are going to the super star
wide receiver. While the Steelers host the high-flying Atlanta Falcons, we
could easily see a shootout transpire with Roethlisberger once again force
feeding his go-to target. The Falcons defense is extremely shorthanded and will
be in tough to stop Pittsburgh leaving Big-Ben having a fantastic day.
Philip Rivers (LAC)
As
the Chargers continue to underachieve on defense, Philip Rivers has been very
productive in the first four weeks of the season. Of the four contests, Rivers
has seen only one go below the 20-point mark with a high reaching 34 fantasy
points. Going up against the Raiders this week who themselves have their own
issues covering the pass, leaves great potential for Rivers and the Chargers to
once again house very solid statistics. Philip isn’t yet a must start every
week but is making his case extremely strong.
Carson Wentz (PHI)
This
might be one of our riskier predictions for a must start as Carson Wentz and
the Eagles look to rebound from last weeks devastating loss to the Titans.
Going up against the Vikings whose defense should be a dominating unit, have
too underachieved so far this season. Their secondary has allowed opposing
quarterbacks to burn them to the tune of allowing the 8th most to
fantasy quarterbacks. With Wentz now playing his third contest, we can envision
him settling down and once again playing at levels from last season. A game
that should’ve been a defensive shutdown, now appears to become a possible
shootout. There is some risk to this play, buyer beware.
Alex Smith (WAS)
While
Alex Smith hasn’t lite the world a fire with his play early on, coming off the
Bye-Week and playing against the Saints who house one of the worst defensive
groups in terms of fantasy points given up to quarterbacks; this could have a
great deal of potential. Smith has again proven to be the check down king
nickel and diming the opposition all over the field, we could see quite a few
points scored on Monday Night Football. We do understand that there are more
attractive options out there, but this matchup has us very excited at the
potential.
Running Backs:
Austin Ekeler (LAC) (PPR)
If
you have been ignoring our past endorsements of Austin Ekeler what else needs
to be done for you to take notice. Throughout his entire career, Philip Rivers
has excelled far greater with a pass catching back coming out of the backfield
relieving pressure in the process. Ekeler has filled that roll to perfection
and will continue as his role is locked in on this offense. When we go back and
review his ADP from fantasy drafts (Pick 190), Ekeler has managed to produce
numbers catapulting him to rank as the 16th best running back in PPR
formats. No question Austin will have another solid day, fire him up and don’t
look back.
Derrick Henry (TEN)
When
reviewing the Titans Derrick Henry and the lack of production and extreme
disappointment he’s provided his owners, some may question why we believe he’s
a must start this week. Simply put, this matchup has the making for Henry to
finally take the trailer off and run through a leaky Bills defense that seems
to be on the field for majority of contests. Ranked as the 6th worst
group against fantasy running backs, we could absolutely see Henry gallop into
the endzone at New Era Field. Based on how this year has gone so far, this
start does possess bust potential with good upside.
Marshawn Lynch (OAK)
The
Raiders Marshawn Lynch has been quietly productive this season not seeing any
contest fall under 12 fantasy points with a high mark of nearly 19. Going up
against the Chargers defense that can’t seem to stop anyone from gashing them,
Lynch has a great opportunity to keep the train going. We totally envision
Lynch once again scampering into the endzone this week to the delight of his
owners.
Aaron Jones (GB)
The
Green Bay Packers travel to Detroit to take on the Lions who have been very
soft when it comes to defending the run. Returning from suspension a couple
weeks ago, his role has increased to see a more prominent impact on contests.
The Packers are dealing with a great number of injuries to their receiving core
which could open the door to a run heavy game-plan from coach McCarthy. Jones
found his way to generate nearly 15 fantasy points last week which should be the
floor in this contest.
Wide Receivers:
Michael Crabtree (BAL)
As
the Ravens continue to roll with a more balanced offensive group, one player
that has flown under the radar has been Michael Crabtree. Putting up decent
numbers to start the season, he hasn’t shown that touchdown prowess we
expected. Going up against the Browns rookie Denzel Ward should have its
challenges, but we could see Crabtree find the endzone for the first time since
week one. The Ravens have shown a commitment in feeding Crabtree seeing an
average of 8.5 targets a game, that should continue this week. The endzone will
be found for Michael in this contest.
Nelson Agholor (PHI) (PPR)
After
an impressive first two weeks of the season for Agholor, he has cooled off so
much that he’s looking to be a mainstay on the bench. That will change this
week as the Eagles look to be in a potential shootout with the Vikings.
Minnesota gives up the 10th most to receivers and with Alshon
Jeffery back in the mix drawing Xavier Rhodes as the primary coverage corner,
Nelson should see more open field as the benefit. His target share has been
there thus far this season, and we fully expect Agholor to be a primary focus
in the game plan.
Amari Cooper (OAK)
The
Oakland Raiders pass game found its stride last week seeing Derek Carr look
decisive and proficient in the process. Going up against the Chargers this week
who have had great struggles to stop anyone on defense, this divisional contest
has the potential to see a lot of points yet again. This offense should always
feature Cooper but has struggled with consistency to start the season. Cooper
broke out last week which should again be the plan versus Los Angeles that
gives up the 5th most to receivers. Very good potential in this
one.
Jamison Crowder (WAS) (PPR)
Some
may scoff at the notion that Jamison Crowder is a must start this week given
the lack of production he’s been able to deliver thus far. Coming off the
Bye-Week, we have nothing but confidence that the coaching staff will go back
to the well and reintegrate Crowder as a primary target. The Saints defense has
regressed so much that they now give up the most fantasy points to wide
receivers leaving this one prime for PPR points. We won’t be surprised to see
Jamison find the endzone in this one but hauling in 8 receptions for 85-100
yards should be the line.
Tight-Ends:
Jordan Reed (WAS)
Much
like Crowder, Reed hasn’t been the force we expected with Alex Smith throwing
the ball. The Redskins outside receivers leave a lot on the field which should
increase the middle where Reed makes his living. We could see the Saints
double-team Jordan in hopes Smith looks in other directions, but we could see a
touchdown for Reed in this one. This is a boom or bust play but has solid upside
to garner points.
Austin Hooper (ATL)
The Falcons have shown they once again are a force on the offense as
Matt Ryan gets more comfortable in year two of the Sarkisian system. Austin
Hooper is now an after thought when targets are distributed but will hold value
against the Steelers who give up the most to fantasy tight-ends. He shouldn’t
see more than a handful of looks from Ryan, but scheme could see Hooper
targeted on a play action pass close to the goal line. There is potential this
doesn’t hit the mark, but a touchdown could be found for Austin this week.
SIT - LEAVE THEM ON THE BENCH
Quarterbacks:
Russell Wilson (SEA)
We recommended sitting Wilson earlier this season and will again
provide that same evaluation for week 5. Its not that Wilson isn’t still a
top-notch quarterback, but rather the lack of options this Seahawks offense
employs. Furthermore, going up against the Rams who are leaning toward being
the best team in the NFL, Wilson will be on the run for most of the day.
Garbage time points is the only upside for Russell this week.
Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Rookie Baker Mayfield has shown great skill and leadership in his
two games played this season. Going up against the Ravens who possess a defense
that gives the elite fits, Baker could be in for a long day in this one. We
could really see a few hard hits and welcome to the NFL moments for the young
play maker. He will have great games in his career, but this shouldn’t be one
of them.
Running Backs:
Carlos Hyde (CLE)
Carlos Hyde has been quite good this season but should find it
difficult to run against one of the best run stooping defenses in the NFL.
Baltimore has exceptionally corrected the offense which has allowed the defense
to find more rest on the sidelines keeping them fresh longer. Hyde has become a
must play every week, but this week we recommend sitting him.
Dalvin Cook (MIN)
Our concern for Dalvin Cook this season coming off that ACL injury
has been seen with missed games and lack of explosiveness. Its unclear if Cook
will suit up for this one just yet, but even if he does, we find it very
difficult to endorse plugging him into your lineup. The Eagles defense still
has one of the best defensive fronts in the league and Cook would have a
difficult time finding holes even if he dresses for this one.
Lamar Miller (HOU)
We at ADF had high hopes that Miller and the Texans offense would’ve
taken the next step in their progression, but it hasn’t been the case just yet.
Miller has proven he can be a viable target in the pass game but leaving a lot
to be desired in the run attack. With news that Miller is quite banged up
entering this contest, we are forced to place Lamar on the bench.
Wide Receivers:
Marquise Goodwin (SF)
With Jimmy-G lost for the season, the 49ers deep pass game has also
been lost leaving Marquise Goodwin a must bench for the foreseeable future.
Going up against the Cardinals defense that has shut down the opposition to the
tune of holding the 4th best versus fantasy receivers, Goodwin won’t
get free in this one.
Sammy Watkins (KC)
It comes to the point that we can no longer endorse Sammy Watkins in
fantasy football. Admittedly, we have been Watkins greatest supporter believing
he would finally reach the full play making potential in Kansas City, but that
ship is sailing. Sammy continues to prove he can’t stay on the field while
having consistency issues on a weekly basis. If he suits up for this one, the
Jacksonville defense will make it seem like he’s not on the field anyway.
Doug Baldwin (SEA)
Taking heat all offseason when we
suggested Baldwin and the Seahawks would be in tough most weeks in the 2018
season, the same will continue against the Rams in week 5. Baldwin is playing
at less than 100% and the Hawks are facing a defensive group that has been very
good this season. The Rams will force Wilson to find other options by keeping a
close eye on Doug the entire game. Keep Doug on the bench until a matchup looks
better.
Tight-Ends:
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
(JAX)
Even though the Chiefs allow yards in bunches to their opposition,
we can’t envision the Jaguars finding much success with Austin in this one
either. We had great hopes in the offseason that ASJ would help this offense
move forward, but his target share has become difficult to trust. Fully expect
this matchup to bust.
POTENTIAL BIG DAY – ALL ABOUT THE RISK/REWARD
Quarterbacks:
Matthew Stafford (DET)
Nothing brings out the best in players then facing off against a
divisional rival, and Matthew Stafford should find his game in this one versus
the Packers. Even as the Packer defense has been much improved against the
pass, Matthew and company should be able to find holes with their trio of great
pass catchers. We could see the best game of the season from the Lions and
Stafford this week.
Derek Carr (OAK)
We may be the only supporters left angling for Derek Carr and his
abilities, and this week we could again see numbers much like those of last
week. The Chargers have a difficult time stopping anyone at the moment and we
can’t see them correcting this anytime soon. If Carr can find that magic he
found last week, Derek will again be a top-flight producer for week 5.
Running Backs:
Mark Ingram (NO)
The return for Mark Ingram from suspension could either go really
well, or really horribly. Alvin Kamara has done a masterful job taking the lead
in this offense, but fear of being overworked, the Saints should provide Ingram
a healthy number of touches in his first game back. There is bust potential
here, but we find it difficult to keep him on the bench. Very high upside on
Monday Night Football.
Dion Lewis (TEN)
The Titans Dion Lewis knows this Bills squad quite well from his
days in New England and should be able to produce good statistics. We could
envision Lewis having a better day in the pass game racking up the PPR points
while Henry hammers his way through the line. Both backs should be at least
flex starters for week 5.
Kenyan Drake (MIA)
We will go out on a limb here to suggest Kenyan Drake could see his
best outing this season. Coach Gase has gone on record saying the lack of usage
has been game specific but has a keen appetite to get him more involved. Going
up against the Bengals who look much improved, Drake could again put up a duck,
but we feel he will receive his fair share of work. Very high-risk, high-reward
for Drake this week.
Wide Receivers:
Donte Moncrief (JAX)
The Jags Donte Moncrief has found his role early this season in this
offense and has made the most of his targets more often than not. Going up
against the Chiefs who allow middle of the pack numbers to fantasy receivers,
Donte could again feast. There is potential for Kansas City to hold a lead
forcing Bortles to throw deep into the fourth quarter.
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)
We have been all over the Broncos Emmanuel Sanders this season and
he hasn’t disappointed one bit. This week against the Jets, Sanders has
fantastic appeal to once again find his way to generate great numbers. New York
struggles to stop most offenses where Case Keenum should be able to feed Sanders
to the tune of 6 receptions for 100-120 yards and at least one touchdown.
Ty Montgomery (GB)
As the Packers gear up to take on the Lions, the amount injuries to
their receiving core could allow Ty Montgomery to fill in and have a prevalent role.
We do caution to review the lineups on game day before pulling the trigger on
Monty, but in PPR formats, he could have a big day playing a bigger role.
Tight-Ends:
Ricky Seals-Jones (ARZ)
With rookie Josh Rosen taking over as the starting quarterback, all
options see an uptick especially tight-end Seals-Jones. We do place a certain level
of caution on this start as we would like to see how well this offense can produce.
With that said, if Rosen turns out to be a player, Seals-Jones could be a
massive benefactor in the redzone.
Tyler Kroft (CIN)
With the Bengals Tyler Eifert finding his way back to the medical
room for the remainder of the season, Tyler Kroft could again find his way to
an expanded role much like last year. Some have suggested that CJ Uzomah will
take the lead at tight-end to start, but we need to see that transpire to get
off the Kroft train to see the target share. Good potential for an endzone trip
here.
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