NFL Week 1 Point Spread Picks

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ADF All-Time Record: 132-135 (.495)

NFL WEEK 1 – Predictions (Projected odds makers @ Sept.6.2018 – 12:00PM EST) 

Week 1 Record: 9-7 (.563)

Thursday Sept.6.2018

Atlanta @ Philadelphia (Favorite)

Westgate -1

Caesar’s -1

William Hill -1

Wynn -1.5

CG -1.5

Unibet -3

SportSelect -2.5

Opening day is finally here and we have a dandy on Thursday Night Football to kick off week one. The Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles host the birds from the south in the Atlanta Falcons. While most would ascertain that picking the favorite (in this case the Eagles) would be the sure-fire pick on opening day at home, we surly question that resolve. The Eagles will be without Carson Wnetz and Alshon Jeffery for this contest leaving the offense somewhat shortchanged to begin the year. The Falcons look to improve on last years success as they look for revenge from last years playoff loss to these same Eagles. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones should be on point and ready to show the NFL world they are ready to retake their throne atop the NFC South. While this game should be close, the Eagles defense will have to play lights out. Atlanta spoils the banner raising party in the city of brotherly love.

PHI doesn’t cover the spread @ -1.5 
ATL 12 PHI 18 (L)

Sunday Sept.9.2018

Buffalo @ Baltimore (Favorite)

Westgate -7.5

Caesar’s -7.5

William Hill -7

Wynn -7.5

CG -7

Unibet -7.5

SportSelect -7.5

As the Buffalo Bills finally broke free from their demons of not reaching the post season for 17 years, all that now can be placed in the rear-view as they look to the next chapter of continuing to rebuild this franchise. Coach McDermott has chosen to play it safe with his rookie quarterback keeping him on the bench and starting Nate Peterman for this week one contest against the Steelers. Buffalo has a multitude of issues on the offensive line that could become a huge problem in the second half if Shady McCoy can’t generate much of a run attack. The Baltimore Ravens on the other hand have retooled and look to make a statement early in front of the home town faithful. The offense now employs a cast of wide receivers that should make opposing defenses take notice while their defense continues its fantastic play. While the Bills defense might keep them in this early on, the Ravens will run away with this contest.

BAL covers the spread @ -7 
BUF 3 BAL 47 (W)

  

Jacksonville (Favorite) @ NY Giants

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -3

William Hill -3

Wynn -3

CG -3

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -3.5

One of the more intriguing matchups on Sunday sees the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to New York to face off against the Giants. All eyes will be front and center on the young dynamic rookie running back Saquon Barkley as he faces one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Odell Beckham should be back to his former self as he returns from an injury plagued season which saw him miss the majority of 2017. The Giants should be a much-improved squad in 2018 but starting off against the Jags should prove to be a difficult task. Jacksonville showed the NFL they were ready to take the next step in their progression making it all the way to the AFC Championship game narrowly losing out to the might New England Patriots. Continuing to bolster the defensive side of the ball while adding high potential key ingredients to the offense, the Jaguars are ready to once again push the AFC. Choosing the home side on opening week contests is usually the way to go, but Jacksonville will be too much for New York to handle.

JAX covers the spread @ -3 
JAX 20 NYG 15 (W)

 

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Westgate -9.5

Caesar’s -9.5

William Hill -9.5

Wynn -9.5

CG -9.5

Unibet -9

SportSelect -9.5

It seems year-in-year-out, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers find it difficult to overcome their inadequacies with failed draft choices and enigmatic play calling and execution. The beginning of the 2018 season should be quite the struggle for the Bucs as the travel to New Orleans to face off against the powerful Saints. Jameis Winston will miss the first three games to suspension and Tampa will be forced to go with NFL journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. While the defense is improving, that Bucs front seven will have their hands full. The Saints saw a massive turn around last season on the strength of a solid draft class that looks to pick up where they left off. Drew Brees showed signs of diminishing ability last season but should have enough in the tank to propel this club to greener pastures. New Orleans isn’t a team known historically for having a great defense, but this year they should rewrite the past. This should be one of the easier contests for the Saints this season.

NWO covers the spread @ -9.5 
TB 48 NWO 40 (L) 

Houston @ New England (Favorite)

Westgate -6.5

Caesar’s -6

William Hill -6.5

Wynn -6.5

CG -6

Unibet -6.5

SportSelect -6.5

The Super Bowl runner up begins the season at home against one of the most exciting players from last season in Deshaun Watson. As Tom Brady enters his 19 campaign in the NFL, the Patriots continue to be the favorite in the AFC to return to the big show. With changes littered all over the roster, Coach Bill Belichick should once again find a way to be uber-productive. When Deshaun Watson became the Texans starting pivot, he took off like a missile to become the talk of the NFL rather quickly. Houston found themselves decimated with injury last year, forcing a year filled with so much promise to fall by the wayside. Watson has returned from his ACL injury and looks to regain form lifting this club back to the postseason. Even though Houston travels to Foxborough to start the season, they should compete and possibly steal a victory.

NE doesn’t cover the spread @ -6.5 
HOU 20 NE 27 (L)

San Francisco @ Minnesota (Favorite)

Westgate -6.5

Caesar’s -6.5

William Hill -6

Wynn -6.5

CG -6

Unibet -6.5

SportSelect -6.5

As the Jimmy Garoppolo era begins with him entrenched as the starting quarterback for the 49ers, their first task is rather difficult as they travel to faceoff against the mighty Vikings. With Kyle Shanahan continuing to rebuild the team in his own vision, the Vikings look prime to be one of the toughest teams in the entire NFC making this an uphill climb. The Minnesota Vikings already housed one of the best defensive units in the league and all that seemed to be missing was a fulltime franchise caliber quarterback, which they now employ. Kirk Cousins should lift this entire club to potentially put up career numbers in the process. With the 49ers moving in the right direction, they will have a difficult time stopping this team from running all over them.

MIN covers the spread @ -6 
SF 16 MIN 24 (W)

Tennessee (Favorite) @ Miami

Westgate -1.5

Caesar’s -1.5

William Hill -1.5

Wynn -1.5

CG -1.5

Unibet -1.5

SportSelect -1.5

Perhaps one of the more non-exciting contests to grace the week one slate, sees the Titans travel to Florida to meet the Dolphins. Miami will have Ryan Tannehill back behind center after missing the entire 2017 season to that torn ACL, and a new cast of characters will be catching passes in hopes to prove they are better then advertised thus far. The Titans are an interesting bunch that have a new head coach and system on both sides of the ball and signed an excess of talented players to help this team get to the next level. Even with travel miles on the Titans first week, they shouldn’t have much issue getting past perhaps one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL.

TEN covers the spread @ -1.5
TEN 20 MIA 27 (L)

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (Favorite)

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -3

William Hill -3

Wynn -3

CG -3

Unibet -3

SportSelect -2.5

This contest was one of the harder to evaluate as both don’t appear to be moving in any great direction. Andrew Luck is trying his best to prove he is over his still possible career ending injury, while the Bengals look to improve off last years subpar campaign. Reviewing both rosters and change over in-depth charts, the Bengals look to have the edge with an improved offensive line hoping to establish a solid run attack with second year pro Joe Mixon. If Andy Dalton can find time to move through his progressions and set up the play action pass, Cincinnati should find a way to pull this one out on a Colts team that still appears to be quite dysfunctional.

CIN covers the spread @ -3 
CIN 34 IND 23 (W)

Pittsburgh (Favorite) @ Cleveland

Westgate -3.5

Caesar’s -4

William Hill -4

Wynn -4

CG -4

Unibet -4

SportSelect -3.5

An AFC North battle to start the season wouldn’t normally turns heads when the Browns were attached to it, but in 2018, Cleveland looks to make waves climbing out of the basement showing the league they are in fact much improved. While the Steelers look to once again challenge for the AFC crown, the media has been all over the absence of LeVeon Bell as he refuses to report to the team and looks to miss the first week of the season. With a looker room losing faith in their star dividing feelings amongst his teammates, Pittsburgh could become greatly shorthanded come Sunday. With that said, the Browns also hold a great advantage with their new offensive coordinator Todd Hayley knowing the Steelers intimately holding the same position for Pittsburgh last season. Understanding tendencies of the Steelers best players will give the Browns a leg up as the open the year at home. This could be an upset in the making.

PIT doesn’t cover the spread @ -4
PIT 21 CLE 21 (W)

Kansas City @ LA Chargers (Favorite)

Westgate -3.5

Caesar’s -3.5

William Hill -3.5

Wynn -3.5

CG -3

Unibet -3

SportSelect -3.5

Perhaps one of our favorite teams coming into the season is the up and coming Los Angeles Chargers. With everything finally taking shape and the roster being the healthiest its been in the last couple years to start a season, the Chargers could be a force. With an offense that normally puts up points, LA has a defense that will become the talk of the league with young rookie sensation Derwin James adding to the talent. Kansas City is an interesting group with young Patrick Mahomes ready to start his first NFL game as the starting quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes has a cannon for an arm and isn’t afraid to sling the ball all over the field. With a group as talented as the Chiefs employ on offense, even if Mahomes struggles early, they could bail him out. First week on the road with long travel should be a little too much for the young quarterback.

LAC covers the spread @ - 3.5
KC 38 LAC 28 (L)

Seattle @ Denver (Favorite)

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -3

William Hill -3

Wynn -2.5

CG -2.5

Unibet -3

SportSelect -2.5

While some will continue to hold out hope that the Seattle Seahawks are a group that will surprisingly have a solid season behind a gutted organization, we simply know better. Any team forced to endure that much change over in one offseason is destined for disaster. Russell Wilson should be able to make games interesting from week to week, but it surely won’t be near enough to keep them competitive. As the Hawks will have their issues, the Broncos should most definitely have some form of improvement this season behind Case Keenum and rookie running back sensation Royce Freeman. While we have our reservations on Case being anything more than a stopgap for Denver, this offense should find a way to put up points. The Broncos overall still possess a solid defensive unit, but what concerns us most is their inability to stop the run. With that said, we have zero faith in Seattle this year especially on the road.

DEN covers the spread @ -3
SEA 24 DEN 27 (W)

Dallas @ Carolina (Favorite)

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -2.5

William Hill -2.5

Wynn -3

CG -2.5

Unibet -3

SportSelect -2.5

Entering the season Dak Prescott is quickly losing favor among the masses and the Cowboys look to lean heavy on Zeke Elliott to take pressure off the pass game. With Dez Bryant lone gone and Dallas employing a multitude of average pass catchers, it could be interesting to see what they can produce on a weekly basis. The Panthers and Cam Newton look to continue their winning ways from last season with more weapons at their disposal on offense while still housing a defense that will again find its way to be a top ten unit in the league. The Cowboys are an interesting bunch that look much better defensively on paper and could give strong offensive clubs a run for their money. This game should be close as the line suggests.

CAR covers the spread @ -2.5
DAL 8 CAR 16 (W)

Washington @ Arizona (Favorite)

Westgate -1

Caesar’s -1

William Hill EVEN

Wynn -1

CG -1

Unibet -1

SportSelect -0.5

The Washington Redskins have a new quarterback in Alex Smith and an offense that looked to be on the rise with rookie Derrius Guice planted as their starting running back, but that all was lost to a preseason ACL injury that will cost him the season. Replacing Guice with the aging legs of Adrian Peterson will be an intriguing situation to say the least. Much like the Skins, Arizona has gone through an overhaul with their roster and coaching staff as they look to get back to some form of a competitive nature in 2018. Having star running back David Johnson return fresh and healthy will only improve the chances that the Cardinals will have a much better campaign then from a season ago. The line is baiting the public to believe this will be closer then what it should be. Heavy travel miles will affect the Skins in this week one matchup.

ARZ covers the spread @ -1 
WAS 24 ARZ 6 (L)

Chicago @ Green Bay (Favorite)

Westgate -7.5

Caesar’s -7.5

William Hill -8

Wynn -7.5

CG -7.5

Unibet -7

SportSelect -7.5

With the return to Sunday Night Football, the schedule makers have given us a potential dandy to close out the slate of games on Sunday. While we like how the Bears have revamped their squad under former Andy Reid disciple in coach Matt Nagy, the recent move to bring Khalil Mack to the club could be extremely impactful early on. The offense could have a few questions that require answers but should become a better all-around unit. The Green Bay Packers aren’t the same team without Aaron Rodgers as we witnessed last season once he went down to injury. Hosting the Bears to begin the season will obviously be a massive advantage having the hometown faithful cheering them on. Not only does the addition of Jimmy Graham excite us further for the potential power of the offense, but the improved secondary of this Packers defense with superb drafting securing the services of Jarie Alexander and Josh Jackson will lift them to levels not seen in quite some time. This game could be closer then the line suggests, but Green Bay should come out on top.

GB doesn’t cover the spread @ -8
CHI 23 GB 24 (W)

Monday Sept.10.2018

NY Jets @ Detroit (Favorite)

Westgate -6.5

Caesar’s -6.5

William Hill -6.5

Wynn -6.5

CG -6.5

Unibet -6.5

SportSelect -6.5

The Detroit Lions and the New York Jets open the first of the doubleheader on Monday Night Football. Rookie Sam Darnold has been anointed the starting quarterback for the Jets as he looks to show the NFL world he was the best quarterback to come out of this draft class. New York still has many issues all over this roster that should again make them a bottom feeder in the league. The Lions are a team on the rise with former New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia taking over in hopes to bring some of that winning formula to the motor-city. This game shouldn’t be much of a contest as it moves into the second half as the Lions will stamp their ticket to week two rather easily.

DET covers the spread @ -6.5
NYJ 48 DET 17 (L)

LA Rams @ Oakland

Westgate -4

Caesar’s -4.5

William Hill -4

Wynn -4.5

CG -4

Unibet -4

SportSelect -4.5

Concluding week one in the NFL, the Oakland Raiders host the high-flying Los Angeles Rams. Its difficult to argue the Rams on paper look like a juggernaut ready to show the NFC they are in fact the cream of the crop. Coach Sean McVay put the league on notice suggesting he was one of the brightest offensive minds to walk the sidelines, something he’ll look to continue in the bay area. Oakland is a team that had promise under the hiring of Jon Gruden to re-establish some form of a winning culture while instructing his players to reach their full potential. Its very possible Oakland will find ways to be very competitive this season but going up against one of the best in the business should leave them licking their wounds after this one.

LAR covers the spread @ -4.5 
LAR 33 OAK 13 (W)

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