New England
Patriots |
Height: 6-4 Weight: 225 Age: 41
Born: 8/3/1977 San Mateo, CA
College: Michigan
Experience: 19th season
High School: Serra HS [San Mateo,
CA]
The Perception:
Entering his nineteenth season
in the NFL at the ripe age of 41 years young, the great Tom Brady continues to
defy all odds playing into what normally would become a decline to most in
terms of ability, Brady still manages to surprise with little sign of slowing
down. As the Patriots recover from last years Super Bowl loss to the Eagles,
Bill Belichick and company will again put their best foot forward in hopes to
hoist yet another championship before Brady rides off into the sunset as one
of, if not the best quarterback to ever play the game.
While Brady’s legacy is already
set in stone, he’ll continue to chase history becoming the unquestioned GOAT
(greatest of all time) as we begin the 2018 season. While its difficult to find
any perception from Tom’s overall game that he hasn’t already been proven on
the field, the main thought from most media channels gears toward the query of
how long Brady can keep up this level of play. Though Tom has gone on record
with logical statements suggesting the inevitability of his decline will
eventually come, he has also spoken with great confidence that he feels he
could continue playing up to the age of 45 to the dismay of the AFC East.
The shear dominance of the
Patriots over the last nineteen years would give anyone pause to believe the
reign of terror would ultimately come to an end, but will it transpire this
season? As the Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has been the master at
replacing talent departing through free agency over the years, this season has
seen quite the turnover in terms of top end talent leaving for other pastures.
The Brandin Cooks one-year experiment was enough for Bill to part ways sending
his services to the Rams in exchange for high-end draft pick capital to help
ease the salary cap situation. Losing Danny Amendola to the Dolphins could also
pose as a key contributing loss now that Julian Edelman has been hit with a
four-game suspension courtesy of the NFL’s league office. Hoping to replace
lost production, the Patriots signed former Eagles mega slot producer in Jordan
Matthews, only to cut bait with an injury settlement. While most teams would
view these as grave concerns to the overall potential of their squad, New
England has always found a way with the next man up approach, or appropriately
highlighting the strengths of specific positional groupings, allowing Tom Brady
to have the most success on the field.
The Reality:
A lot transpired late last
season when the predictable conundrum of how to handle backup quarterback Jimmy
Garoppolo and his upcoming contract situation, leaving the Patriots to chose
between the best to ever play at the future of the franchise. While all knew it
was impossible to keep both on the roster, Belichick sent Jimmy packing as he
orchestrated a deal with the 49ers in return for draft pick compensation. Many
reports came out suggesting a rift between New England’s owner Robert Kraft,
head coach Bill Belichick, and Tom Brady on many situations including the
future of Brady, training facilities (TB12), rostered players, etc. suggesting
an internal power struggle was occurring. Weather or not the speculation of how
the Patriots handled their business inside closed doors was true, there is no
question the preparation and compliance to a system set in place for many years
under Belichick would continue with Brady leading the way.
If anyone wanted to throw water
on the fire suggesting Brady was about to enter a decline in his illustrious
career, reviewing Tom Brady’s 2017 season wouldn’t provide much credence to
that argument. Brady completed a season where his statistics rivaled some of
the best in his career still finding ways to throw for over 4500 yards and 32
touchdowns while throwing a mere 8 interceptions on the campaign. New England
employs a short pass game knowing that Tom doesn’t have the complete deep ball
strength he once had (perhaps the only knock on his game), as seen with an
incredible 62 pass completions of 20 yards or more from last year. Much of the
same should continue this year as utilizing the excess of running backs that
can catch out of the backfield (White, Burkhead, Michel) will provide much
assistance in the absence of Edelman over the middle. Perhaps employing more of
a two tight end set would also favor the Pats short pass game with the great Rob
Gronkowski setting the tone assisting last year’s underachieving free agent
signing Dwayne Allen to compete at a higher level.
Bill Belichick and Tom Brady
have been a match made in heaven in regards to what they have been able to
accomplish over their tenure, and we can’t find a great hole to poke into their
armor even as the offense will look somewhat different this season. Chris Hogan
should take on more a prevalent role allowing Brady to find his backs with high
regularity. While we agree the end will eventually come quick for Brady and his
great career, 2018 should allow us to understand if he indeed has another four
to five years or just one or two left in the aging arm.
The Outlook:
The Patriots start and stop
behind the brilliance of Bill Belichick to masterfully understand the strengths
and weaknesses of his roster while placing them in the perfect situation to
succeed every single contest. His ability to adjust in game is perhaps the best
we’ve witnessed, and having Brady drink the Kool-Aid in terms of the process, they
essentially becoming one person on game day resulting in the unbelievable
triumph this organization has enjoyed. Tom Brady has had his doubters continue
throughout his career and has seen the narrative change to no longer appraise
his abilities, but rather waiting for the decline to predict when his time has
come. Coming into the 2018 season, Brady will have new bodies on the field to
help the attempt in getting back to the big show. So long as Tom stay’s the
course with his dominate ability to dissect opposing defenses, the supporting
cast will follow as he’ll once again lean on his super-star tight end until Julian
Edelman returns from suspension. It seems every year the national media is
waiting for the demise of the mighty Patriots, we don’t see that happening this
season, but this could be the final elite year in Tom’s fantastic resume, just maybe.
From the fantasy football perceptive, Tom Brady finished the
2017 season ranked as the third best quarterback in football behind Cam Newton
and Russell Wilson. Brady completed the campaign scoring a healthy 295.9 total points which saw his
average compare close to his career numbers hitting a nice 18.5 points per game. Overall last season saw quarterback
play across the league generate lower than normal fantasy numbers, with only
one going over the 300 point mark compared to that from the 2016 season which
saw five hit that mark and above. Moving toward the 2018 outlook for Tom Brady,
he currently sits with an ADP (Average Draft Position) holding around the 50
mark with his lowest seeing a drop into the 90’s. The variation in his draft
stock would suggest that most are willing to wait on drafting quarterbacks
early while stacking their rosters with other top end talent before they pull
the trigger on a passer. While we at ADF subscribe to the notion that securing
your quarterback later is the template for success, seeing how your draft plays
out could entice some to select Brady in the fourth or fifth rounds. It’s not
difficult to predict Tom’s future numbers as he again will become a solid
fantasy play in 2018. We fully expect Brady to hit 4200-4500 passing yards,
30-35 touchdowns while only throwing 5-10 interceptions providing great value
for your starting pivot, sit back and enjoy another great year from the magician.
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