Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Height: 6-5 Weight:
231 Age: 24
Born: 8/21/1993 Dallas, TX
College: Texas A&M
Experience:
5th season
High School: Ball HS [Galveston, TX]
The Perception:
Whenever a discussion arises about the 2014 supremely talented
wide receiver draft class, Mike Evans remains a constant in those conversations
as one of the best to come out that year. Entering his fifth season in the NFL,
Evans has seen a fantastic level of success with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which
forced the team to reward and secure his services beyond his rookie term fifth
year option, locking Evans up for an additional five seasons to the tune of 82.5
million dollars with 55 million of that being fully guaranteed. Upon signing
his new lucrative contract, not one negative perception came to pass from media
circles suggesting the money and term wasn’t on par to what Evans has produced on
the field, and we fully agree.
Mike Evans from day one donning the Tampa red, has proven his
worth and continues to improve his craft even as the Buccaneers struggle to
find a solidified identity behind their franchise quarterback Jameis Winston. Mike
Evans began his career with a quarterback tandem of Josh McCown and Mike Glennon
throwing him the ball, which still equated to great rookie success seeing over
1000 yards receiving and a whopping 12 touchdowns on the year - thus building
the perceptions that Mike was a true difference maker at the position. While the
Bucs realized they required a heavy upgrade at the quarterback position the
following offseason, they drafted Jameis Winston (2015) to hopefully begin a
process that would instill better execution resulting in victories on a regular
basis. Mike Evans did in fact see an uptick in his statistics in the 2015
season with Winston, which provided further credence that the Tampa Bay rebuild
was beginning to take shape. Continuing to see statistical success the following
season (2016), Mike Evans hit new career highs in receptions (96) and yardage
(1321) while matching his previous high in touchdown receptions (12) concluding
a banner year.
Completing his first three seasons, everything appeared on the
up-and-up regarding statistical success, but overall didn’t translate in the
win column for the Bucs as a whole. In reviewing last seasons tallies for Evans
and the Buccaneers, Evans saw something of a regression from what was becoming
the constant whenever he completed a full campaign. Injuries haven’t been an
issue thus far in Mike’s four years completed, which has seen him only miss
three contests over those four years. The Tampa Bay offense seemed out of sorts
last season along with three missed games from their starting pivot (Winston),
which led to Evans narrowly achieving his fourth straight 1000-yard season. Like
any receiver in the NFL, the reliance on top notch quarterback play is evident for
personal achievement which wasn’t necessarily the case for Evans and the rest
of the Bucs receiving core. Even still, with the lack of team progression, Mike
Evans remains a topflight producer in the league and we see nothing on the
horizon that would contradict that statement.
The Reality:
As we enter the 2018 season, Tampa Bay was hit with an unfortunate
situation that saw Jameis Winston suspended for the first three contests for
violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy potentially derailing the start of
the Bucs new campaign. Essentially, to start the season, long time NFL back up
and journeymen Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center in Winston’s absence which
could be a difficult task to gain much traction in terms of victories and heavy
statistical performances. The positives with Fitzpatrick beginning the season
as the starting quarterback is that historically, he targets his top receivers
with high regularity having the most confidence in his top producing playmakers.
If this comes to fruition, the potential for Mike Evans to generate a multitude
of targets and receptions could be extremely high in those first three weeks of
the season.
Evans has an interesting resume in terms of patterns when it
comes to his touchdown productivity and efficiency throughout his short NFL
career. While his catch percentages have remained relatively consistent
hovering around the 50%-55% marks, the touchdowns have hit a ceiling of 12 two
times in his career which were achieved in seasons one and three. Seeing drop-offs
in scores in years two and four pose to be somewhat of a conundrum to appropriately
evaluate the reasons for these drawbacks. At this point the pattern would suggest
that Evans is due for another rebound in generating high amounts of touchdowns
coming off a season which saw only five endzone trips for the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers.
The interesting aspect when assessing what the Bucs could become
this season starts with the roster, and if the potential of the talent
assembled finally finds levels that meets expectations. The supporting cast of
receivers and tight ends in their second season together should allow for
better dynamics in play calling and execution with gained familiarity. While
DeSean Jackson has been receiving negative attention thus far in camp, Chris Godwin
is starting to pickup steam which could potentially gain him a starting spot with
D-Jax playing more of a supportive role, which could open Evans up to more
single coverage's down the field. We believe the aspect of this offense that
requires a massive uptick in production is the run game which could be
rectified with rookie Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber creating a formidable
one-two punch that opposing defenses will fear. This will of course will have
to be proven on the field, which could assist the play action pass, further
creating mismatches down the field for Mike Evans to run free.
The Outlook:
We
at ADF have been great supporters of Mike Evans since he entered the league and
haven’t seen much to ascertain an opinion that he won’t get back on track with
top-end numbers this season to rival the best in the business. Even with their
backup quarterback (Fitzpatrick) tossing darts for the first few weeks shouldn’t
disrupt Evans overall game but perhaps the outlook for the team in general.
Mike’s averages sit very favorably with 77.2 receptions going for a healthy
1144.7 yards and 8 touchdowns over the course of his four seasons played. Its
not out of the question to see Mike get reacquainted with a great friend (the
endzone) to levels we’ve grown accustomed too in the past. As the Buccaneers continue
the path forward to becoming a quality unit all around, its no question the
Mike Evans will be the obvious go-to target to help this train keep chugging.
From
the fantasy football perceptive, Mike Evans has done a marvellous job rewarding
his owners with week-in-week-out production to garner a roster spot every season
with a high draft pick price tag. As mentioned above, last year was a let-down
in terms of generating top-end points as Mike completed the season ranked as
the 17th best receiver generating 203.1 points in PPR (Point Per Reception) formats, giving
him a weaker than normal 13.5
points per game. While the fantasy community always becomes reactive to seasons
such as these, rest assured, this is where we preach and endorse players like
Evans with great enthusiasm based on where he could be selected in upcoming
drafts. As of today, Evans holds an ADP (Average Draft Position) sitting at 23 with
a worst being seen around the 40’s. The value which could be had when selecting
Mike at the backend of the second round, all the way into the third round, will
have fantasy owners jumping for joy throughout the season. Finding a WR1 this
late in drafts will provide you the ability to stack your running backs in the
first two rounds and potentially sitting pretty to score; 80-85 receptions going
for 1100-1350 yards and securing 10-13 touchdowns. If you can gain Mike Evans
services in the third round this year, emphatically hit the select button and
laugh all the way to the bank.
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