Cincinnati Bengals |
Height: 6-4 Weight:
210 Age: 29
Born: 7/31/1988 Ridgeville,
SC
College: Georgia
Experience: 8th season
High School: Summerville HS [SC]
The Perception:
With AJ
Green entering his eighth NFL season and producing at levels that rival the
best in the game, it’s unbelievable he doesn’t garner more national attention
like his counterparts from say Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New York. Perhaps it’s
the easy going soft spoken nature of Green that doesn’t attract the attention
as he’d prefer to let his game speak for itself rather than create unnecessary
drama onto his team. While some believe Green should be more vocal given the caliber
of player he is, we find no fault in supporting an all-star talent simply
generating numbers consistently while avoiding the pitfalls of being dragged
into situations not conducive to a positive atmosphere.
ADF has been
a giant supporter of AJ Green going back to his days with the Georgia Bulldogs
which saw highlight-reel receptions on a consistent basis. As Green enters the
final years of prime ability (29 years old) the overall perception is already
showing downtrends amidst the masses due to lower than expected results over
the last two seasons. While ADF still subscribes to the perception that AJ is
an elite level talent, there are viable explanations to quash the observation
that Green is trending in the wrong direction and won’t enjoy a bounce back
campaign with the Bengals. On the positive trend, Green has stayed relatively
healthy over his seven completed seasons missing only ten games, six of which
came in 2016 hence the lower productivity that year in part removing the
argument that he’s lost a step. Adding to that, last season was quite the
disaster for the Bengals overall as the entire offense looked anemic as patch
made solutions and uneven play calling lead to their demise. Even still, AJ
Green managed to generate great numbers in the process yet lower than his
career average, nothing to get overly concerned about.
Upon
completion of the 2017 season, the Bengals were rumored to be moving in another
direction at the head coaching position, but remained on course retaining long
tenured bench boss Marvin Lewis in hopes that continuity could right the ship
quicker then starting from scratch. With Lewis secure to again lead the charge,
the choice to keep appointed offensive coordinator and former quarterbacks
coach Bill Lazor in charge of play calling duties could be another positive in
system familiarity to get this offense back on track. Stability in this case
could bode well for Green and Dalton to again find that magical connection
we’ve witnessed in the past specifically from the 2012, 2013, and 2015 seasons.
Either way, the expectations and perceptions should continue to remain high on
Green preforming at peak levels in 2018 displacing the naysayers who suggest
the potential beginning of the inevitable decline is underway.
The Reality:
To face
facts of reality and understanding what led to the uneven performance over the
course of the 2016 & 2017 seasons, you don’t have to look beyond a deficient
offensive line. Andy Dalton in the past has proven he can make plays, many of
which have been geared to his favorite target (AJ Green), but showed his
greatest struggles last season running for his life ultimately being sacked 39
times and 80 over the past two campaigns. With no establishment of a solid
running attack due in part to those inadequacies on that offensive line, the
limitations were felt as Green saw his lowest reception total in his career for
16 games played, the correlation is quite apparent in our eyes.
Furthermore,
when examining the talent (or lack thereof) that lines up on the other side of Green;
you begin to also notice trends that don’t complement in a supporting manner as
opposing defenses key in on AJ with double teams quite frequently. While we
believe Green can manage any situation and take over a contest on any given
day, the success was far greater with players like Mohamed Sanu and Marvin
Jones anchoring the opposite side drawing coverage allowing for superior play
calling and execution. ADF isn’t suggesting the current receivers on the roster
couldn’t take the next step in their progression becoming higher caliber players;
it’s just simple fact that it hasn’t transpired on the field thus far which has
become a hindrance on Green forcing him to drive the offensive production.
ADF is a
firm believer in stability and familiarity in offensive systems which allows
for better execution for the unit as a whole. Having Bill Lazor return should
provide some ounce of relief to Andy Dalton and company, to build from where
they left off last season. Over the last five games of the 2017 season, there
was a distinct push to get Green more involved but the execution wasn’t always there.
Without a question in our mind, Green will find his stride once again
reasserting the fact that he is indeed one of the best receivers in the game.
The Outlook:
AJ Green in
our eyes still possesses elite level skill that will translate back on the field
as the Bengals look to improve on last season’s tallies. The supporting cast for
the Bengals offense looks good on paper but must find a way to prove it on the
field. Tyler Boyd and John Ross need to find their stride while improving their
craft to create those mismatches that should leave Green in more single
coverages. Joe Mixon should continue to improve as well being the feature back
this season, creating sustainable play action situations allowing for bigger
plays down field to AJ. A team is as strong as their weakest link so any improvements
production wise will only help the season outlook for AJ Green.
From the fantasy perceptive, Green finished the season
ranked as the tenth best receiver in PPR (Point Per Reception) formats
generating a healthy 226.8
fantasy points, while seeing his average dip a little to 14.2 points per game, still very solid but not what we’d
normally expect from Green throughout his career. The fantasy world is always more
reactive basing their projections more so from last season statistics rather
than accounting for overall improvements made to each club. Taking that into
consideration, Green currently holds an ADP (Average Draft Position) of 20
while seeing a worst draft placement selection fall as far as 25 in recent mock
drafts. Seeing a talent like Green drop all the way into the second round has
ADF screaming “VALUE” for where his services can be obtained. It’s not out of
the realm of possibilities to witness AJ get back on track hitting numbers
which we’ve grown accustomed too. ADF comfortably endorses the notion that
Green will find his way to 90 receptions for 1150-1250 yards and 8-10
touchdowns this season, like we said fantastic value for a pure WR1 for the
2018 campaign at somewhat of a bargain price.
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