Seattle Seahawks |
Height: 5-11 Weight:
215 Age: 29
Born: 11/29/1988 Cincinnati,
OH
College: Wisconsin
Experience:
7th season
High School:
Collegiate School [Richmond, VA]
The Perception:
As Russell Wilson
enters his seventh season in the NFL his stock could be no higher as most
experts have him pegged as a top three to top five quarterback in the league. Wilson
is coming off a season that saw him match career highs in touchdowns passes tossing
34, while also matching career highs in interceptions with 11. Last season we
witnessed a Seahawks club go through tribulation like we’ve never seen from
this dominating group in the last five years. Seattle dealt with a multitude of
injuries that ultimately derailed their season while missing the playoffs in
lack-luster fashion.
While ADF has always
respected the play of Wilson, 2017 was a year that catapulted Russell in our
eyes as a true difference maker and elite level talent. Wilson literally put
the Seahawks on his back and carried them even as the injuries continued to
pile up. The Hawks haven’t really enjoyed a solid offensive line to protect
their franchise quarterback and have been searching to replace the massive production
left behind when Marshawn Lynch flew the coup (pun intended). It was amazing to
witness the magic from week to week as Russell was simply in his own stratosphere
willing plays with his arm to a receiving core that wasn’t greatly admired by
the masses. Finishing his season atop the fantasy point leaders in PPR formats
makes it far to obvious and easy to rank Wilson back into that fold.
As the Seahawks brain
trust begins to rebuild the team while seeing top-end talent leave for other
destinations, Seattle should have a difficult time replicating the success of
the past. ADF seems to be in the minority as most of our colleagues argue that
Wilson will be a top-flight producer once again this coming season. The
perception is that Seattle will find its way back to being a productive squad
behind the great Russell Wilson, but this shouldn’t be the thought process.
The Reality:
Wilson is an
exceptional player don’t get us wrong, and we have grown with our trust in his
ability to produce, but the odds are against him to replicate a season like
last, especially with a defense on the downtrend. The Seahawks offense isn’t one
that will be overly creative as lack of play makers will make that point proven
on a weekly basis. Drafting rookie Rashaad Penny was a fantastic move that will
bring back some threat of a run attack to assist Wilson in recreating a play
action pass that was completely ruined with the revolving door of runners due
to injuries.
The credibility in the
Seahawks receiving core is also another trend that ADF simply can’t get past.
While Doug Baldwin has proven he’s a viable asset that’s capable of making
sound plays with Wilson, the supporting cast isn’t something we are ready to
endorse. Baldwin should see far more double teams this season as opposing
defenses look to force Wilson in finding other receivers to make plays. Losing
Jimmy Graham to the Packers will be felt from day one as they try and force the
issue with a tandem formation at tight end with Nick Vannett and Ed Dickson. Signing
the aging Brandon Marshall to the club will appear on paper as a giant victory
but shouldn’t overly accelerate the success rate outside of possessing height
in redzone opportunities.
While the Seahawks aren’t publicly voicing they are in the midst of
a rebuild, but rather a re-tinkering, ADF is far from convinced. The Seattle
run game should see vast improvement from last season with Penny and Carson forming
a one-two punch that should be very intimidating. The Seahawks offensive line
is greatly underrated and should show improvement allowing Wilson to stand longer
in the pocket in hopes to find his receivers. With that said, the direction the
Hawks seem to be moving toward appears to employ a heavier run attack (much
like the past), while allowing Wilson to preform with lesser reliance on his
arm.
The Outlook:
ADF is a big fan of Wilson but not at his current ADP (Average Draft
Position). Early rankings have Wilson as the third quarterback on the list
which is something we aren’t prepared to support at this stage of the offseason.
The excitement of Russell’s great 2017 fantasy season which saw him generate a healthy
347.8 fantasy points, is
clouding rational thought as to what his production will be in 2018. With the
talent at wide receiver outside of Doug Baldwin looking rather thin, and the Seahawks
looking to rejuvenate their run attack, all signs point to lower numbers this season.
The one caveat that has us intrigued in Wilson’s potential output is the
possibility of massive garbage time points inflating his numbers weekly.
However, we must draft on facts rather than speculation when selecting a player
ranked as high as Russell currently is.
While it seems we are suggesting Wilson should have a terrible season,
it couldn’t be further from the truth. We have witnessed Russell Wilson have
two fantastic seasons out of seven throwing for 4000 yards (or just under that
mark) and hitting 34 touchdown passes in 2015 & 2017. Outside of those terrific
years, Wilson has been the consistent quarterback able to create statistics
around 3500 passing yards and 20-25 touchdowns per season which should be the
going rate for the 2018 campaign. Seeing his average points per week last year
hovering around 21.6 points
per game is the anomaly and he should find his way back down to earth with an
average around 15.5-17.5
points per week. With Wilson currently being drafted in the third round and
seen as high as the mid second round (mock drafts), we must advise the public
that greater value for the quarterback position can be had in avoiding Wilson
this season.
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