Los Angeles Chargers |
Height: 6-1 Weight:
215 Age: 25
Born: 4/13/1993 Kenosha, WI
College: Wisconsin
Experience: 4th season
High School: Mary Bradford HS
[Kenosha, WI]
The Perception:
It’s no
secret we haven’t been shy in voicing our displeasure of the Chargers top running
back Melvin Gordon over his first three years in the NFL, however, our lukewarm
praise is beginning to boil as we enter the 2018 season. ADF is a firm believer
in progression dictating future outcomes; and Melvin surly had us take notice after
he completed his first full season playing the entire sixteen game slate while improving
his numbers every year.
The concern
on Gordon coming out of college had heightened potential for durability concerns
simply because of the usage he saw in Wisconsin. The coaching staff leaned on
Melvin in his sophomore and junior campaigns elevating his carry totals to
astronomical levels where he amassed 549 carries in just those two seasons,
quite the heavy workload. Though Melvin had fantastic production from higher
tallies before declaring for the NFL Draft, the writing was on the wall to
expect a slower than normal start to his NFL career simply based on usage. That
perception of Gordon came true as his missed five games to injury in his first
two seasons as the lead back in San Diego. With those missed contests came lost
production as Melvin couldn’t find his way to breaking the 1000 yard rushing
mark to start his career back in 2015 & 2016.
Continuing
to evaluate the on field production Gordon has been able to achieve, the upside
from his 2016 season (though he missed 3 games to injury) was the fact that he
feel just three yards short of reaching his first 1000 yard season, progression
was moving in the right direction even with lost time. As the Chargers owner
chose to pack up the team with a stadium deal completely collapsed, Los Angeles
would now be the Chargers home and with that came great improvement and further
progression from the former Heisman trophy runner up. Gordon showed improvement
last season primarily in the pass game becoming a vocal point of the offense in
check down and schemed passing situations. The inconsistency in Melvin’s game
seems to still exist, as in certain weeks he definitely leaves you wanting
more.
The Reality:
The greatest
encouragement for Gordon from last season was his ability to finally finish the
entire year without a major hitch (injury wise), galloping to over 1100 rushing
yards on 284 carries, while adding a healthy 58 receptions totaling 476
receiving yards, and finding pay-dirt 12 times combined, quite impressive. As
we mentioned above, recognizing progression from season to season for any young
player is part of the formula to predicting future success. The second aspect
to predicting future seasons is the validity of talent spread around the rest
of the roster, which the LA Chargers absolutely possess.
When
reviewing the cast of characters on this squad to support Gordon’s continued progression,
we really can’t find many negatives from this team. Though Philip Rivers has
become long in the tooth with many years of experience, his play hasn’t fallen
off a cliff even at the ripe age of 36 years young. While Rivers has been somewhat
prone to throwing interceptions, his production continues to rival the top
passers in the NFL, a great uptick to Melvin. Adding to the positive of still
having a top flight passer, the Chargers employ a plethora of wide receivers
that will surly keep opposing defenses from stacking the box leaving open lanes
for Gordon to rush through, very encouraging. More positives for the Chargers as
they enter the second season under Coach Anthony Lynn, who’s been known to favour
a run heavy scheme to set up the pass, and should have all the wrinkles ironed
out from this past year of implementation. With all the praise suggested thus
far on the Chargers offensively, the top notch defense assembled in Los Angeles
should provide Gordon with plenty more opportunity to close out games via the
run, plus marks everywhere on this unit.
It’s been
clearly noted the great concern for the Chargers in the past always returns to
the limitations of their offensive line. Adding Mike Pouncey to man the Center
position gives credence that perhaps Los Angeles could be turning the corner
with their front five. Having Forrest Lamp on track to return from a rookie
season lost to an ACL injury, our eyes continue to open wider with the
potential that Melvin Gordon will see lanes open the likes semi-trucks could
drive through. The potential reality in the Chargers situation from day one
looks extremely favorable for Gordon to have his best season as a pro.
The Outlook:
As we have
stated and continue to preach throughout this evaluation, progression is a key
to success for any player, but with a squad as talented as this one surrounding
Melvin Gordon, it difficult to not get excited. Searching for concerns in
Melvin’s overall game has appeared to become quite difficult outside the points
we already covered. One aspect that shoots out as grave worry is the low
average yards per carry (3.8 yards per carry career average) and lack of 100
yard rushing games (five 100 yard career games) Gordon has under-produced. In
saying that, Gordon remains a heavy producer with his work in the pass game,
and having a keen eye for the endzone will keep his status as a top tier
running back in the NFL.
From the fantasy
football perspective, Melvin Gordon enjoyed his best season to date (2017), and
ADF is buying up all shares possible on the fourth year back. Impressively
enough Melvin finished last season as the 5th producing running back
in both standard and PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues. Gordon nearly found
himself achieving the coveted 300 point mark falling just short, producing a
whopping 288.1 fantasy points
last season, proving his fantastic value from last year’s ADP (Average Draft
Position). When discussing this seasons ADP for Melvin Gordon, ADF is shocked
to witness him currently being placed at the 12th spot in mock draft
thus far with a low end selection in the late teens, absolutely fantastic value.
With all the positives on the Chargers this season and Gordon having the 8th
easiest schedule for fantasy running backs as of today, ADF fully endorses
Melvin Gordon to potentially hit 300
fantasy points while generating career highs (barring health or course) on a
team pegged as a possible Super Bowl contender as we enter training camp. Great
upside with even better value if you snag Gordon late in the first round to
early in the second round of your draft, enjoy the fruits of success.
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