Buffalo Bills |
Height: 5-11 Weight:
210 Age: 29
Born: 7/12/1988 Harrisburg,
PA
College: Pittsburgh
Experience: 10th season
High School: Bishop McDevitt HS
[Harrisburg, PA]; Milford Acad. [New Berlin, NY]
The Perception:
The thought process when discussing Shady McCoy at this point in
his illustrious career is undoubtedly questioning how much does he have left in
the tank. In terms of historical production drop off in the NFL for players at
the running back position, the magical age of decline for elite talent usually
begins to set in at the ripe age of 30. The science in proving this
deterioration in ability is quite simple as most correlations can be found with
the amount of carries each back has amassed to equal the amount of punishment
they’ve endured. As Shady is set to celebrate his 30th birthday
before the season begins, many already have begun questioning the runner’s
ability as if it was a certainty his ability should fall off a cliff this
season.
To elaborate on the above point, Shady could definitely become
the anomaly to the age rule when reviewing his last nine years in the NFL. Seven
of his nine seasons as a superstar in this league, McCoy has been used somewhat
sparingly compared to running backs of the workhorse variety; LeSean has only
generated 300+ carries in two seasons in his career. In 2013 & 2014 McCoy
saw 314 & 312 carries respectively, producing nearly 3000 yards on the
ground in those two seasons. Aside from the heavy workload in Philadelphia in those
two years, LeSean McCoy has averaged only 194.8 carries per season for the
remainder of his time, like we said, a smaller workload adding life to his
tires. With that said, some argue in the aggregate that LeSean doubles down
with more work in the passing game being a mainstay in game plans, which we
can’t argue. Shady does haul in an impressive 49 reception average per season
on top of his responsibilities in the run game, which is quite heavy usage for
full time starting running backs.
There is a stigma attached to LeSean in terms of injuries,
hearing some go as far to suggest that McCoy is an injury prone player. Over
his nine played seasons, McCoy has only missed 11 games in that time which is
far from chronic concerns and frequent trips to the medical room. On top of
that, McCoy is a master in not receiving great punishment from opposing
tacklers knowing when to give up on a play and dive to the ground. His body is
in far better shape than those that endure big hits week after week. LeSean is
a finesse runner with extreme one cut ability and burst which was still on
display last season not witnessing any early signs of a potential decline, but
like most his age in the NFL, the naysayers have already come out of the
woodwork to preach.
The Reality:
Over the course of his career, LeSean McCoy has been an
uber-productive running back for both the Philadelphia Eagles and now the
Buffalo Bills. Entering his fourth season in Buffalo and second under coach
McDermott, McCoy has embraced Western New York as he continues his chase for
12K (12,000 rushing yards, his personal goal). The reality as it stands today
for the Bills offensively, they are in a rebuild, some may say purgatory, until
they find a true franchise quarterback with hopes that rookie Josh Allen can be
their guy. With a three way competition for the 2018 starting pivot, McCoy
eventually will be playing behind AJ McCarron, Nate Peterman, or Josh Allen.
Along with evaluating the quarterbacks on the roster, the coaching staff looks
to elevate young receiver Zay Jones to become a difference maker ultimately
removing pressure from Shady.
The consensus thus far has many suggesting LeSean will take a
large step backward in his production simply because of the uncertainty in this
new offense. Young quarterbacks teamed with new offensive systems, does have
the makings of a potential disastrous situation where McCoy will be leaned upon
heavily to mask the shortcomings of this transition. Aside from the starting
quarterback being a potential issue, the Bills offensive line has also gone
through changes with retirements (Eric Wood), roster releases due to retirement
(Ritchie Incognito), and trades (Cordy Glenn), as Buffalo will employ a new
cast of characters to try and open up lanes for Shady McCoy. Adding to that,
the Bills brain trust signed Chris Ivory to the fold to spell LeSean when rest
is needed, and with great potential that Ivory could become the Bills goal line
back and touchdown vulture.
The Outlook:
The questions surrounding LeSean McCoy are justifiable with
facts that are extremely difficult to overlook. Shady will be a 30 year old
running back with over 2000 carries under his belt, a newly made offensive
line, a brand new starting quarterback to run the show, all submerged with a
fresh offensive system, it’s a lot to digest. With that said, McCoy is a beast
of a talent that hasn’t shown much of any decline as of yet, and is coming off
a season where his yards per carry average still hit the four yard mark (though
being a career low) with an anemic offense under Tyrod Taylor. While we’ve
already made the argument that McCoy isn’t necessarily an injury prone player,
he has five of his eleven career missed games donning the red, white, and blue.
With the potential for an increased workload for any player, the risk of injury
must be accounted for. The Bills coaching staff may manage Shady’s usage
creating a tandem approach with Chris Ivory continuing to be a run first team,
time will tell.
When discussing the fantasy football aspect of LeSean McCoy entering
the 2018 season, we fully understand the critics that adamantly proclaim they are
staying away from McCoy this season. However, Shady does hold a current value
ADP (Average Draft Position) ranking him as the 20th player off the
board, with a low mark dropping his draft status into the mid 30’s, I hear
value bells ringing like crazy! Last season McCoy was able to generate a very
healthy 263.6 fantasy points
giving him an average of 16.5
points per game ranking him the 7th best running back in PPR (Point
Per Reception) leagues, nothing to sneeze at. The great appeal for Shady this season
is the potential workload increase in both the run as well as the pass to
support this evolving offense, even with Chris Ivory seeing his fair share.
McCoy will be leaned upon as the primary check down out of the backfield, which
is nothing new, except it provides credence that Shady could see 60 receptions without
even trying. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see LeSean again garner
250 carries, amassing 1000-1200 yards, 6-8 total touchdowns, and 50-60
receptions this season, providing fantastic value for a player potentially
being had in the third round. While the stats of history proclaim a sharp
decline, Shady again will be a top ten producer for the 2018 campaign. ADF is
still buying shares in Shady McCoy!
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