New Orleans Saints |
Height: 5-10 Weight:
215 Age: 22
Born: 7/25/1995 Atlanta, GA
College: Tennessee
Experience: 2nd season
High School: Norcross HS [GA]
The Perception:
Being overlooked by many in the 2017 NFL draft, the Saints took
a giant gamble passing on Alvin Kamara in the second round, (though they
coveted him greatly), they still found great fortune that he still sat atop the
draft board in the third thus pulling the trigger. The expectations were low as
Kamara found his way to the city of New Orleans seeing a depth chart that
included long time veteran Mark Ingram, and newly acquired potential future
hall of famer Adrian Peterson. The gleaming praise from coach Sean Payton
throughout his first training camp sent waves to those who follow the game that
Kamara would be in for a decent workload, but no one could’ve predicted the
rookie season that was to transpire.
Alvin Kamara started the year slow, but showed great flash in
the receiving game providing credibility that he in fact was the real deal in
need of more touches after the first four weeks of the season. As the Saints
bye week approached (week five), New Orleans had seen enough to ship Peterson
to the Cardinals, opening the door to perhaps one of the greatest seasons
statistically by a running back tandem in NFL history. By week six it was the
Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram show that became virtually unstoppable as Alvin added
dimensions to the Saints offense the likes we haven’t seen since the days when
Darren Sproles donned the gold and black.
With great success from a season ago, the trends for Kamara have
been quite interesting seeing some camps valuing Alvin as a sure fire slam
dunk, while others view him as the top candidate to regress in year two. No one
we’ve spoken too about Kamara questions the talent or the plan of usage from coach
Payton, but there have been intriguing thoughts to suggest Kamara is overvalued
while others suggest the value is 100 percent correct. It’s rare to see a
debate so lopsided on a player that lit up the fantasy world a season ago, but
this has been the case when discussing Alvin Kamara.
The Reality:
With all the hype that the Saints would pick up where they left
off in terms of offensive production, New Orleans was hit with a dagger early
this offseason with half of their dynamic duo (Mark Ingram), facing a four game
suspension leaving question marks for the first quarter of the season. Some
view this as a great benefit to Kamara’s overall value now that he’ll be the centerpiece
of the run attack. While there is credence to that argument, ADF is wavering on
that sentiment having questions to if Kamara can fill the role as a true number
one running back taking on the punishment Ingram normally endures. While we aren’t
suggesting Alvin isn’t a capable player with great ability to lift his game to
the next level, it’s the potential workload that gives us fear.
Kamara proved he was a fantastic change of pace back with extraordinary
capabilities in the pass game with electrifying ability creating highlight
reels weekly after being given more responsibility. The start of this year
should tell the tale of what Kamara truly is, as to if he can handle a full
time role without seeing any drop off in production. With that said, coach Payton
is a master at integrating talented runners into his system exploiting their abilities,
and has been quoted in saying they plan to ride Kamara heavily this season
regardless of the situation with Mark Ingram. It’s clear to us that Sean Payton
is enamoured with Alvin’s 6.1 average yards per carry from last season, while
only seeing 120 rush attempts, providing reason that he remains quite fresh and
not overworked.
There is the perception that Alvin isn’t a tough runner with
ability to lower his shoulder and take punishment in between the tackles, but
he displayed that ability last season on more than one occasion opening our
eyes with his fantastic break tackle ability. The largest concern moving
forward when evaluating Kamara is the potential for injury with that extended
workload while having no real supportive running back to take pressure off him when
needed, until Ingram returns of course. It will be interesting to witness the
evolution of Alvin this coming season.
The Outlook:
When reviewing Alvin’s last season performance, it’s impossible
to provide a weak evaluation to what he was able to produce statistically.
Kamara totalled 1554 yards from scrimmage, hauling in 81 receptions, and
generating 13 total touchdowns when all was said and done in 2017, unbelievably
impressive. While his work on the ground was top notch, his skill in the pass
game could definitely rival that of any running back in the NFL. When Alvin
finds his way into open space with the ball in his hands, he’s a very difficult
man to stop. Alvin was an absolute machine in terms of fantasy production seeing
his totals eclipse the 300 point mark to finish the season with a whopping 315.4 fantasy points while
losing one game to injury. His average point production became third best amongst
his peers which saw Kamara create a healthy 19.7 points per game over the course of the year falling
just under two points behind the great Le’Veon Bell.
Simply, ADF is a big fan of Alvin Kamara; we tend to lean more
on the side that he will again produce large numbers in both the run and the
pass, with potential for lost production becoming an afterthought once Mark
Ingram returns to the lineup. Alvin is far too talented to be taken for granted
while playing in a system that promotes activity to the running back position
in large sums. The natural thought to suggest regression is inevitable simply
because his success levels were so high seems lazy without factual agreements
to back up that notion. Kamara currently holds an ADP ranking him in the top
ten at pick six with few mocks placing him out of the top ten altogether. With
the slew of runners moving off the board early, snagging Kamara anywhere from
pick six to ten should become an absolute steal in all PPR (Point Per
Reception) leagues. It’s not out of the question to see Alvin reach 300+
fantasy points (PPR) once again this season.
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