Stay Tuned for the Third Edition of the ADF Fantasy
Football Draft Kit - RELEASE DATE: AUGUST 2018
As most Re-Draft leagues aren’t set to begin for another few months,
it’s important to understand the significance of new talent that has been
infused into the league that could generate valuable points during the course
of the season for your respective team. Harnessing the “value” of each rookie
and the potential for success at the correct ADP could be the difference in
winning and losing this season. Though ADF usually will advise to move in the
direction of proven talent, there are some rookies you can’t overlook. Let’s
have a look at our early prognosis for potential producers entering their
rookie season.
Rookie Quarterbacks
There’s a case to be made in terms of which rookie quarterback could
give you the most fantasy points in the upcoming season. While all new
quarterbacks look to be nursed along slowly, Sam Darnold currently has the most
upside based on his placement with the New York Jets. While the team around him
isn’t overly exceptional and he’ll experience growing pains as any rookie
would, taking a shot late in drafts to house Sam on your bench could be very
effective. This thought process would in fact grow stronger once Darnold is
anointed the full time starter which is a distinct possibility upon completion
of camp and the preseason. Expectations won’t be very high in his first season,
but could have value for bye weeks or later in the season. This evaluation of
course is only if Darnold sees the field.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Waiver wire watch-list.
As of today Sam Bradford still holds the number one job as the
starting pivot for the Arizona Cardinals. While most players make headlines
during OTA’s as flashing greatness in shorts, the same has been said of the
former UCLA product Josh Rosen. Slinging the ball all over the field with
precision is a positive to begin his development, but the task will be large to
overtake the seasoned veteran in Sam Bradford. Josh should start the season as
one of the top choices on the waiver should Bradford find his way to the medical
room, which is a distinct possibility. While Rosen does have appeal, his value
should only be on the table if he indeed steals the job away from Bradford week
one, or if he inherits the job via injury.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Waiver wire watch-list.
Rookie Running Backs
It’s no secret that ADF is enamoured with the talent level of the
top rookie running back entering the NFL. Finally the Giants have a top flight
viable runner that can support Eli Manning now in the twilight of his career.
Barkley’s potential in New York should resemble a similar storyline to that of Ezekiel
Elliott when he arrived in Dallas. With a skillset to handle playing all three
downs, the potential for massive production in his rookie season is very real.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, late first round, early second round selection.
While ADF isn’t buying the stock of Russell Wilson at his current
ADP thus far, the same can’t be said for Rashaad Penny. The Seahawks don’t have
a great deal to work with on the offense in terms of great playmakers, but
Penny will provide where the team lets down. Early appearances suggest with
Chris Carson back in the mix, the Hawks could employ a committee approach which
will damper the draft stock of the young rookie. This situation is definitely
one to follow during camp and the preseason to determine the correct
value.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, mid round selection.
ADF is a big fan of what Derrius Guice is, and what he should be
able to become in the future if used correctly. We can’t envision any situation
where Derrius doesn’t win the starting job for the Redskins right from day one.
He is the type of difference making runner that Washington hasn’t seen since
the days of Clinton Portis. With the early stages of OTA’s setting up this
offense, ADF is extremely encouraged with what we’ve seen thus far. Heaps of
value oozing from Guice as of today.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, mid round selection.
When the Patriots drafted Sony Michel to essentially replace Dion
Lewis, the stock continues to rise for the dynamic running back. The Patriots
backfield has always been something of a mystery as coach Belichick uses a
plethora of backs to game specific plans leaving no real advantage for fantasy
football owners. Sony might buck the trend early as he could find his way to
becoming a mainstay on this offense more so in the pass game. Finding the
mismatch in a defense on short pass plays is the name of the game with Tom
Brady and company, and Michel should benefit greatly. Up to this point it’s
very difficult to predict the usage of Sony, but his value should rise as the
offseason concludes.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, mid round selection
ADF has wavered on Ronald Jones struggling to place him correctly to
this point of the offseason. For the purposes of this article we are forced to
make him the fourth rookie running back on the list simply based on depth chart
numbers. Jones is currently listed as the first backup to Jacquizz Rodgers and
just ahead of Charles Sims, and could easily climb and steal the role with a solid
camp. Jones has glaring injury concerns from his past that could make him a red
flag, but his speed and skill should be exploited in Tampa Bay adding a new
dimension to this offense. At this point we stand with our projection of Jones.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, mid/late round selection.
Of course all we hear in the early stages is how impressed the
coaching staff is of their new players, but when it comes to Kerryon Johnson,
we are buying the hype. The Lions now employ a backfield much like the Patriots
in terms of numbers adding confusion to the fantasy community on who they
should trust. LeGarrette Blount should garner favour early from the Belichick
disciple (Matt Patricia), but Johnson should find a role early making it
difficult to bring him off the field. ADF is starting to move all in on the
Lions offense this season as Matthew Stafford has never enjoyed a true running
presence aiding to create viable play action passing plays, while keeping
opposing defenses honest limiting stacked boxes. There is a lot to like with
Johnson and his production will only increase as the season goes on. The upside
is fantastic for the value of his ADP.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, mid/late round selection.
Royce Freeman should find his way to a lot of work in the Broncos
backfield now that CJ Anderson has been released from the club. Initial depth
charts show Freeman as the first backup to Devontae Booker, but should take on
almost a 50/50 share to begin the season. Freeman is bigger than Booker and
could instantly take on the CJ Anderson role while Booker continues his change
of pace responsibilities. The Denver offense is something of an enigma to us
thus far, as Case Keenum still has the view of a system quarterback that found
his stride in Minnesota for one season. ADF isn’t writing off Keenum just yet,
put the run game should be leaned upon giving Freeman a great chance to
produce.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, mid/late round selection.
The Indianapolis Colts new running back Nyheim Hines has ADF doing
flips and cartwheels just seeing the potential that could come to pass in this
offense. Some may scoff at our current placement for the rookie, but that’s how
big of a believer we are in his skillset. The largest concern of course is the
health of their franchise quarterback Andrew Luck to determine the final value
for Hines, but all signs point up for us to buy all the shares possible for
him. Hines had a great skillset that should begin in the pass game with his
great versatility and catching ability. We are still curious to see if he can
run between the tackles consistently providing a three-down back appeal, the
jury is still out on that. Either way, Hines has extreme PPR charm that will
only increase when Luck gets back to form, and at his current ADP the value is
off the charts.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, late round selection. (Sleeper - high potential)
Another player that is increasing in terms of potential and value is
the Bengals new running back Mark Walton. Currently Walton is buried on the
depth chart as he learns the Bengals system and becomes comfortable with the
NFL game. With his great skillset, ADF envisions Walton eventually stealing
snaps from Giovanni Bernard to become the main complement to second year
starter Joe Mixon. At this moment there isn’t much to suggest Walton should be
on the radar in re-draft outside of really deep leagues. Walton will however be
a top waiver pick up as the season moves forward.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Waiver wire watch-list.
Rookie Wide Receivers
ADF may be alone on this mountain, but we will stand tall in our
defense of Calvin Ridley and his talent level. A better situation we couldn’t
dream up than seeing him drafted by the Falcons to team up with some of the
best playmakers in the NFL. While Calvin refines his ability with the tutelage
of the great Julio Jones, all signs are pointing to Ridley becoming the
mainstay at the slot position and a heavy contributor with more three-wide out
sets coming for the offense this season. Opposing defenses will struggle when
they double Julio as Ridley will be the biggest benefactor seeing a healthy
target share until he becomes more known. The touchdown upside right from jump
is what allows us to say Ridley will be the most productive receiver of the
rookie class. Calvin will end up becoming a fantastic flex starter as the
season wears on.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, mid/late round selection.
Christian Kirk much like Calvin Ridley is another receiver that will
handle a heavy workload and perhaps Kirk might see more targets than Ridley.
The Cardinals offense will be very intriguing this season with Sam Bradford
leading the charge with the potential for another rookie to supplant him as the
starting quarterback. With Bradford running the show, that would give better
value to Kirk in the short term for this upcoming fantasy season. Outside of JJ
Nelson, Christian Kirk shouldn’t see much competition removing his playing time
from the field. It appears very possible Kirk is a day one starter opposite the
great Larry Fitzgerald seeing good production this season. Upticks everywhere
for Christian Kirk as of today.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, late round selection.
ADF was extremely close in ranking Michael Gallup as our top rookie
wide receiver prospect for the upcoming fantasy season and this could change
depending on how the offseason transpires. Gallup has a ton of upside in an
offense that no longer has a clear cut number one wide receiver in the fold.
Dallas has compiled a collection of receivers that should have quite an equal
share of targets when all is said and done this season. Gallup has great
potential and should show-out early building trust with Dak Prescott to
eventually garner the most targets per game. He should be drafted and placed on
you bench as a true wait and see.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, late round selection.
The Carolina Panthers are an interesting bunch that now have the
makings to become a powerful unit on the offensive side of the ball. Cam Newton
should have a reliable run attack to open up lanes in the pass game as they
experiment with the best placement for the talents of Moore. Looking to win the
job to man the other outside receiver position, the upside for targets could be
slim to begin the year but should see a massive increase if Moore develops into
the playmaker we believe he can become. His value at his current ADP could
become a steal as the season progresses.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, late round selection.
The Saints have struggled to add a perfect consistent receiver to
assist Michael Thomas in seeing fewer double teams, until now. While Ted Ginn
should remain as the teams deep threat, Smith should slot in fantastically in
this Saints offense to which his production could warrant a flex starting role
mid-way through the season. Smith has the talent to replicate numbers seen from
the Saints high powered offense back in 2011, where both Lance Moore and Robert
Meachem proved to be great complimentary receivers. ADF loves the upside and
wouldn’t have any issue endorsing a late round pick on Smith even with Cameron
Meredith on the roster.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, last round selection.
As we sat on the fence on where to place the 49ers newest addition,
we simply can’t ignore the reports that offensive genius Kyle Shanahan is
preparing Dante Pettis in every formation, and in every receiver position.
Scheme is a massive factor for certain fantasy players as proper coaching will
generate mismatches consistently for players to become productive. With Jimmy
Garoppolo leading the way, expectations are higher than they may ever be,
Pettis may become a massive benefactor in this 49ers offense. If you sang Dante
late in drafts, the progression may begin slow but should produce evenly as the
season move forward.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, last round selection.
The Houston Texans will be a very exciting team to watch so long as
Deshaun Watson can stay on the field and pick up where he left off from last
season. Keke Coutee is making waves in OTA’s (yes I know, temper the
expectations), but a major aspect missing from the Texans offense is the
presence of a true slot receiver. Keke has the ideal speed and hands to man the
inside with fantastic ability after the catch. Coutee could shape up as a
sleeper early with great value coming off the waiver, you may want to secure
his services in the later rounds of the draft.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Waiver wire watch-list.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that simply knows how to turn out
receivers exploiting their talents to the upmost levels. James Washington is a
very intriguing player coming into this fantasy season as he should be inserted
into the third receiver role once held by the departed Martavis Bryant.
Washington has the skill to become the Steelers deep threat with ease, but we’d
question how much usage he will see with Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell still
being the front runners in demanding targets. James could have weekly matchup
appeal against teams that struggle against the deep pass. Outside of deeper
leagues it’s difficult to endorse drafting James Washington.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Waiver wire watch-list.
Rookie Tight Ends
As the Dolphins iron out their offense for the upcoming season, it’s
been seen that Miami looks to involve Mike Gesicki early and often. The
potential for Mike to be a big part of this offense is very real as Miami finds
suitable pass catchers to replace the targets and production left behind from
Jarvis Landry as he departed to the Browns. Picking Gesicki later in the draft
could turn out to become fantasy gold as the season wears on. Of course have
back up plan if things go sideways, but the potential remains high for the Fins
starting tight end.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Draftable, late round selection.
The Ravens should take a wait and see approach to Hayden Hurst when
camp begins providing every opportunity for him to win the starting job. As of
today, Hurst’s value remains as a waiver watch player, but that could change
quickly if Hayden makes plays early on forcing the hand of John Harbaugh to
anoint him as their starter.
ADF Re-Draft Projection: Waiver wire watch-list.
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