Fantasy Football Re-Draft (Finding ADP Value)

Stay Tuned for the Third Edition of the ADF Fantasy Football Draft Kit - RELEASE DATE: AUGUST 2018

As we gear up for fantasy football draft season, more specifically re-draft season, some interesting trends have already transpired as player ADP (Average Draft Position) is adjusting on a weekly basis. In this segment we have to share what we’ve witnessed with glorious value on players sitting at very favorable ADP levels, which would allow fantasy owners to solidify top tier talent without sacrificing rounding out the rest of their squad. Some gems exist as of today but may change as mock drafts adjust player ADP’s.  

Average Draft Position values were generated from May.11.2018 to June.11.2018 (12 Team PPR Format)

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr(OAK) Average Draft Position 143

It’s quite easy to see why most in the fantasy football community have written Derek Carr off and have completely removed him from their draft lists. ADF was a large proponent of Carr in past seasons and once again share that same sentiment. Normally we wouldn’t suggest the potential for a great season with a new head coach installing his systems in year one, but this has the makings of being something to watch in 2018. We realize Jon Gurden has been out of the game for quite some time and could show signs of rust with old installations into his offense; however, Gruden is a film rat that has seen the NFL evolve and should be smart enough to adjust with the times.

With all the change that has transpired during the offseason, this new cast of characters should only improve the fantasy outlook of Derek Carr. The additions of Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant gives the Raiders a formable receiving core that could do damage all season long. Currently Derek Carr’s ADP sits around the 140 mark and should be viewed as a massive steal if selected that low. Achieving 4000+ passing yards and finding his way back over 30+ touchdowns should be very easy this season. We fully expect Carr’s ADP to increase as we get closer to August, but if it remains, this is unbelievable value.      

Eli Manning(NYG) Average Draft Position 179

ADF has rarely sung the praises of the Giants pivot throughout his career, but this season has us extremely intrigued on Eli Manning. Simply for the value and having Manning as your second quarterback with the potential to start and preform rather admirably, Eli Manning has fantastic fantasy worth this season. The reason for the change in thought process on Eli has come with rookie sensation Saquon Barkley being drafted by the New York Giants. Eli Manning has never had a true dominating run attack behind him removing pressure and creating a viable play action pass opposing defenses would fear.  

While Manning enters the final years of his pro football career, there is great opportunity for fantasy owners to cash in on Eli and his extremely low ADP. It’s not out of the question to see Eli find his way back to the heights of 4000 passing yards and over 30+ touchdowns for the season, barring injury of course. Realistically, Manning should hit 3500 passing yards with ease and securing 25-30 touchdowns this season. Rounding out your team with top talent and taking a flyer on Manning late in the drafts seeing him produce 15+ fantasy points a week could be the edge that others won’t see.      

Case Keenum(DEN) Average Draft Position 180

We definitely struggle with Case Keenum and it appears the masses of the fantasy world agree with us, at least for the time being. ADF hasn’t been shy in suggesting that Keenum was a product of the system last season in Minnesota and could struggle much like we’ve seen in the past. The caveat here with Case is that he does possess decent value all the way at the bottom of re-draft leagues. The Broncos offense still houses a talented bunch that should be able to lift Keenum even if his play begins to falter.

While the Broncos should have a reinvigorated run attack and receivers that still rival the best in the NFL, the offensive line could be the biggest nemesis to Keenum which could have him running for his life. With that said, there is upside in value to where Case can be picked if his ADP remains similar when your draft begins. Exercise caution with Case Keenum but understand the value still exists for him to produce for your squad.    

Tyrod Taylor (CLE) Average Draft Position N/A

As the Browns continue their assent to rebuilding a franchise that hasn’t seen a winner in quite some time, Tyrod Taylor is being completely overlooked in mock drafts thus far dropping his ADP into the waiver wire. ADF has studied Tyrod from his days in Buffalo and it’s very clear to what type of quarterback he ultimately is. Taylor has great fears in throwing over the middle of the field and would rather protect the ball as seen from his career lows in interceptions thrown. Tyrod was great at protecting the ball while playing for the Bills and it seems a mix of coaching and lack of throwing ability limited Taylor from becoming a better quarterback.  

In saying that, we believe Taylor (if rewarded the starting job) could elevate the Browns offense with both his arm and his legs. Having A+ ability in terms of creating on the fly and running away from tacklers, Tyrod should be able to find the plethora of receivers the Browns employ. Keep in mind back in 2015 when the Bills had Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Chris Hogan, and Percy Harvin on their roster, Tyrod was atop the NFL in deep pass completions going over 40+ yards and seeing the Bills lead the NFL in deep pass attempts. Tyrod does possess a fantastic deep ball that could see Josh Gordon the main benefactor all season under the tutelage of Todd Haley. Selecting Tyrod in the final round of re-drafts is a slam dunk and shouldn’t be over looked in terms of value.       

Running Backs

Lamar Miller(HOU) Average Draft Position 56

Even with D’Onta Foreman on his heels and looking prime to steal carries away, the Texans offense is loaded and ready to take the next step in their development under Deshaun Watson. Barring injuries to their franchise quarterback, Miller should be able to handle a great role even if it turns to more of a 60-40 time share. Miller’s appeal increases in PPR leagues more than standard as he should be the unquestioned third down back. While Miller saw his yards per carry fall to his lowest levels in his career, ADF doesn’t look too deeply into that, as the Texans offense went into a downward spiral once Watson was lost for the season.

While Miller’s ADP value still sits roughly in the fifth round, there is a distinct worth for what he should be able to produce as an RB2 this season. With the potential for big numbers the Texans offense looks to generate, Miller should end the year higher than his ADP suggests providing good value.

CJ Anderson(CAR) Average Draft Position 91

The hype train is picking up steam for the departed Broncos running back now with the Carolina Panthers. CJ Anderson’s ADP should see the uptick continue as the offseason moves forward. Anderson will take over the Jonathan Stewart role from day one leaving it his job to lose. CJ still has plenty left in the tank, and playing in an offense filled with playmakers, the one-two punch that will be formed with second year runner Christian McCaffrey will be better than what we witnessed a season ago.

ADF is all over the value of CJ moving into the sixth and seventh round with the potential to become a low end RB2 with touchdown appeal from goal line situations. Some suggest McCaffrey will show more production in the run attack stifling Anderson’s outlook; we are not in that camp whatsoever. We certainly believe in Christian’s ability, but not running through the tackles. Anderson will be a valuable piece to your fantasy team.   

Nyheim Hines(IND) Average Draft Position 164

ADF can’t get off the train and will continue to push the young rookie Nyheim Hines as much as we can. With recent news that Andrew Luck is back throwing and his progression is finally moving in the right direction, we will be buying all the stock we can on Hines this season. The value for Hines currently being selected in the late tenth, early eleventh rounds could pay great dividends for your fantasy team.

With Marlon Mack literally being the only competition standing in his way, Hines could easily see a much increased workload as the season progresses. Nyheim will be the Colts primary pass catcher out of the backfield giving his PPR outlook a greater uptick. Hines will start the season on your bench, but will force your hand by week 3 or 4 to play him in your flex position.

(Disclaimer: this evaluation is of course incumbent on the health of Andrew Luck)      

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins (KC) Average Draft Position 85

This may be the last time we preach Sammy Watkins as great value for fantasy football if he again chooses to let us down. Playing for now his third team in his short career, he may have found a place to call home with a great cast around him. ADF was excited for the potential Sammy was expected to bring while playing in Los Angeles, but again was left wanted much more then what was given. We might be alone on this, but ADF believes in the extreme talent levels Watkins possesses and have felt that way since he was drafted by the Buffalo Bills thus five years ago. The glaring concern for Sammy is his inability to remain on the field as injuries have derailed his outlook souring fantasy owners that have taken a shot in the past. This year should view differently, at least we hope.

The Kansas City Chiefs are now employing young up and comer Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback with expectations rising daily. Under Andy Reid, we fully expect Watkins to be moved around all formations finding the best situations in getting him the ball. While Mahomes has a cannon for an arm, it’s easy to envision shorter pass plays to Watkins showing his great after he catch ability reminiscent from his Clemson days. With his current ADP hovering in the late fifth to early sixth round, we feel the value for Sammy is great and the potential for low end WR1 numbers isn’t out of the question.       

Jordy Nelson(OAK) Average Draft Position 90

With Aaron Rodgers losing his season to injury last year, Jordy Nelson became the forgotten man in the Packers offense. Finding his walking papers as Green Bay chose to move in another direction, the Oakland Raiders under Jon Gurden saw the opportunity to exploit the final years of Nelson’s career. Reshaping the Raiders offense will be the primary objective this offseason as Gurden pushes Derek Carr and company to exceed playing levels seen from two seasons prior.

Nelson is just one season removed from producing gouty numbers which saw him catch 97 receptions for 1257 yards and 14 touchdowns, suggesting it surly wasn’t his ability that fell off a cliff. Nelson was underutilized last season as Green Bay had a patch-made scheme with Brent Hundley running the show. Jordy should be able to produce better numbers then Michael Crabtree enjoyed in an offense prepared to take the NFL by storm once again. ADF firmly believes that Nelson can easily achieve numbers to support high end WR2 / low end WR1 value all the way into the sixth and seventh rounds of the draft.        

Allen Hurns(DAL) Average Draft Position 116

The writing was on the wall in that the Cowboys would cut ties with Dez Bryant leaving them thin and having to address their lack of wide receiver talent on the roster. Signing former Jacksonville Jaguars standout Allen Hurns could turn out to become fantastic in terms of value at his current ADP. As Dallas attempts to become more versatile with a surplus or skilled pass catchers rather than employing just one star receiver (Dez Bryant), the potential for Hurns to be the Cowboys top receiver is very real.

Change of scenery is exactly what Hurns needed as he is just two seasons removed from his breakout campaign which saw him haul in 64 receptions for 1031 yards and 10 touchdowns. As we gear up for training camp and the preseason, ADF will be watching intently to see the usage of Hurns to justify our speculation in his case. We reserve the right to change our evaluation based on how coach Garrett choses to use Allen Hurns.       

RishardMatthews (TEN) Average Draft Position 140

When discussing Rishard Matthews, ADF would like to point back to his 2016 season as what his output is capable of. The Titans were somewhat of an enigma in 2017 having the feel of a squad that didn’t have a defined trait as to what they actually were on the field. Losing site of what made them successful last season, the Titans still found themselves in the playoffs but needing to make changes as a whole. With a new head coach and a new offensive system being installed, be sure that Rishard Matthews should be a big part of the game plans week-in-week-out.

With absolutely zero competition on the roster to challenge Matthews as the primary slot receiver, ADF is fully on board with the potential for Rishard to set career highs in almost every category. Matthews will become a PPR darling setting himself up as a weekly flex player and trusted starter on your team. With his ADP ranging around the ninth and tenth rounds as of this past month, we fully expect that to increase based on the offseason usage. ADF is a big supporter of Rishard Matthews in 2018.