Fantasy Football Risers:
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
The largest
riser in the fantasy football world from the free agent pool is former Redskin quarterback
Kirk Cousins. Signing his extremely lucrative deal, Kirk will be the answer in
Minnesota for at least the next three seasons. Finishing seventh in the NFL in
pass yards (4093), and eighth in touchdown passes (27), fully expect those
numbers to climb throwing to a cast of characters that dwarf most of the
Redskins receiving core. Kirk will enjoy playing behind a solid offensive line,
a productive running game, and having a set of pass catches that can bail him
out of missed throws and inaccurate passes. Since becoming the starter in
Washington, Cousins has never seen a season under 4000 passing yards and 25
touchdown passes, fairly impressive with what he had to work with. Minnesota is
a definite upgrade and Kirk should reap the benefits. It’s very possible we see
Kirk flirt with the possibly of reaching the 5000 yard mark and 32-35
touchdowns.
Drew Brees (NWO)
Coming down
to the wire, the New Orleans Saints were able to re-up their quarterback on a
two year contract extension that should see Brees retire as a Saint. Coming off
his worst season statistically since his 2005 San Diego Charger days, the Saints
offensive system was dictated toward the run game rather than the pass.
Throwing his lowest level of touchdowns (23) since the 2003 season, it might be
cause for concern. ADF isn’t wavering on the great Drew Brees just yet. Still
producing a fantastic 72% completion percentage from 2017, the offense lacked
big play execution through the air, as majority was given to the running backs
on short pass plays and runs - in redzone opportunities. Brees should improve his
touchdown mark from last season as they look to add receiver depth to help the
offense get back to its explosive ways.
Jimmy Graham (GB)
While Jimmy
Graham was tied for second in the NFL in touchdown receptions (10), he definitely
saw a down year in receptions and yardage. Playing in a Seahawk offense that
saw its share of issues, Graham became an afterthought outside of the redzone.
Saving many of his fantasy days on late game touchdowns on minimal targets, it’s
no wonder the fantasy public became frustrated with the level of production.
Going to Green Bay looks to be a massive win for the star tight end entering
his ninth season in the NFL. Looking to have shed the concern of his gruesome
knee injury, Jimmy may have lost a step but still possesses massive upside
playing with the great Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay hasn’t had a talent at the
position since Jermichael Finley, and Rodgers would welcome Jimmy with open
arms. Even with a multitude of mouths to feed on this offense, it’s not out of
the question to see Graham find a key role and produce numbers that we once
witnessed. It’s not out of the question to see 65-70 receptions for 800 yards
and 8-10 touchdowns for Jimmy in 2018.
Sammy Watkins (KC)
Sammy is definitely
an enigma in terms of value and placement for the upcoming fantasy season. The hype
his name and draft selection carries, allowed him to convince the Chiefs to
offer a large deal that ADF believes was far too grand for the production we’ve
seen. ADF is still a believer in the talent Watkins possesses, but hasn’t been
able to sustain success due to injuries and inconsistent play. Moving to an
offense that bod’s ample talent (much like the Rams), the large concern that he’ll
again be lost in the shuffle losing targets to Hill, Kelce, and Hunt is a very
real possibility. Drafting Sammy at this point comes with a large question mark
but still contains a very high upside. Patrick Mahomes should be one of the biggest
sleeper prospects for the 2018 fantasy season with his cannon arm and having
the ability to feed all his targets with regularity, which could help Watkins
get back on the map. Seeing single coverage all season is another benefit that
Sammy should enjoy as Tyreek Hill’s speed will again draw safety help leaving Sammy
the potential benefactor. Drafting Sammy in the later rounds could become a
fantasy score as the season moves on, but we’ve also said that before.
Jerick McKinnon (SF)
Always being
a fan of the speed Jerick McKinnon was gifted with; ADF loves the move he made
to join forces with young pivot Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. The book has
been written on McKinnon as he’s already shown what type of runner he is, and
drafting him as a top producer on the ground (in standard leagues) will leave
you frustrated and looking to cut bait as the half way point of the year comes
to pass. Jerick is a specialty runner that has exceptional hands and can make
waves in the pass game, (great for PPR leagues). He has never been able to
produce quality between the tackles as his first choice is to use his speed and
bounce runs outside. An above average blocker on blitz pickups should allow
ample playing time for the speedster to be very effective in staying on the
field. McKinnon is a sure riser in PPR formats but should be a second thought
in standard leagues.
Trey Burton (CHI)
Burton has
been on the ADF radar for two seasons now but has been buried behind Zach Ertz
and Brent Celek for his entire career. Showing his great skill in relief roles
last season in Philadelphia gave him the ability to break free on the open
market and receive a payday conducive to his potential. Moving to Chicago to
help form a rebuilt offensive unit was the best possible outcome for his
potential success in 2018. Like most young quarterbacks looking to improve, Mitchell
Trubisky will benefit the most in having a reliable tight end and primary check
down target to help take pressure off and cover up his mistakes. Having a key
safety blanket will allow Trubisky to gain confidence as bailing early with his
on field progressions should still equate to on field success with Trey making
up for his inadequacies. Even with the additions of Allen Robinson and Tyler
Gabriel to form a potential speedy mismatching receiving core, Burton will be a
steady target puller from the young franchise quarterback. The upside for
Burton will definitely reside more in PPR formats, but the potential is off the
charts in Chicago.
Allen Robinson (CHI)
When news
broke of Allen Robinson moving his talents to the windy city, it came as quite
a shocker to us here at ADF. But as general manager Ryan Pace continued his
keen desire to upgrade the offense around Trubisky, things began to make more
sense. Robinson is a risky draft pick in the higher rounds as coming off a
season ending ACL tear, and entering a new offensive system with a young pivot
throwing him the ball, we could see sporadic production to the midway point of
the season. Robinson has proven he can produce at high levels in this league,
but will be three years removed from his fantastic career season from 2015,
with a massive injury rehab to contend with. As Trubisky continues to develop,
Robinson should benefit, but we caution using anything higher than a 5th
or 6th round selection (in redraft leagues) as his first year in
Chicago might not be all it’s cracked up to be. It’s difficult to envision a
1000 yard season in year one with the Bears. As of today, WR 3-4 is a good
ranking for Robinson.
Dion Lewis (TEN)
Dion Lewis
to the Tennessee Titans is a very interesting move to say the least. Concluding
his most productive season in the NFL, Lewis saw 212 touches (180 rush, 32 rec)
go for 1110 total yards from scrimmage (896 rush, 214 rec), in a Patriots back
field which employs many runners. Moving to a much cleaner situation in terms
of depth, Lewis will create a tandem with Derek Henry manning the back field for
the Titans in 2018. Dion has greatly improved his running ability over the
years, making viable strides to run between the tackles while continuing to be
a great target in the pass game. It’s difficult to envision the usage rotation
between Henry and Lewis at this point, but, both backs should be used a great
deal to help remove pressure from Marcus Mariota. Derek Henry is a volume
runner that punishes defenders and excels in the latter portions of games benefiting
from that earlier punishment. Lewis should be able to find his niche in this
offense as a change of pace back providing sufficient yardage in both the
ground and passing games. He should have a clear role on third downs making his
appeal greater in PPR formats to start. It’s not out of the question to see
Lewis steal carries as the season goes on creating more opportunity for production.
Lewis has great upside to be a flex starter on a weekly basis.
Fantasy Football Mid-Level:
Paul Richardson (WAS)
ADF firmly
disagrees with the money Richardson was given from the Redskins as his production
is greatly in question with Alex Smith throwing him the ball. Richardson could
see an increase in targets and receptions this year, but ADF firmly puts
Richardson as a matchup player as of today.
Jordy Nelson (OAK)
Green Bay
chose to move on from the career Packer sending him to the open market where
the Raiders scooped him up as fast as he was cut. Moving on to Oakland and
having Derek Carr throwing him the ball should equate to success, but nothing
like we’ve become accustomed to in the past. Jordy should become a very good secondary
receiver with high touchdown potential much like Crabtree produced in his time
in the bay area.
Isaiah Crowell (NYJ)
ADF has
never been a fan of Isaiah Crowell and his limited skillset, but has the opportunity
to change our minds in moving to the Big-Apple. The Jets offense shouldn’t improve
that much as it currently stands, but Crowell should get first crack at leading
the backfield in carries. Buyer-beware for Crowell, expect similar production with
a small uptick of potential.
Jarvis Landry (CLE) / Tyrod Taylor (CLE)*
Honorable
mention goes to Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry who were acquired via trade and
not the free agent market. Both players have an opportunity with the Browns to
produce, but one should have more of a viable shot to improve his numbers than
the other. Taylor would definitely receive an uptick while Landry will see his
arrow pointing downward in terms of fantasy potential production. Jarvis was
the mainstay in Miami’s offensive scheme loading up on targets and receptions,
while in Cleveland he will become one of many options Taylor will distribute the
ball too. In terms of Tyrod Taylor, this will be the best receiving core he’s
played with as a starter, but the concern remains on his inability to throw
accurate passes over the middle with confidence. Potential is high for production,
but beware over drafting both these players in 2018.
Fantasy Football Drop-Off:
Teddy Bridgewater (NYJ) / Josh McCown (NYJ)
As the
rebuild continues in New York, settling for secondary options after losing out
on Kirk Cousins, whoever wins the job should only produce enough to equate as
bye-week starters and matchup players. Both are trending downward.
Sam Bradford (ARZ)
With paper
thin knees and the potential inability to stay on the field with yet another
subpar offensive line, Bradford shouldn’t muster much more than we’ve already
witnessed - buyer-beware.
Carlos Hyde (CLE)
Carlos Hyde
received very little interest on the open market and settled on signing with
the Browns knowing the potential to play behind super-rookie Saquon Barkley exists.
If the Browns indeed draft Barkley, Hyde will have very low value and would only
be a viable hand-cuff player. If the Browns elect to go a different direction
and not select Barkley, Hyde’s value would instantly get a massive uptick.
Donte Moncrief (JAX)
While never
being able to produce anything of great value, Moncrief has moved to
Jacksonville to play on a squad with far more receiving talent to contend with and
a major downgrade at the quarterback position. ADF is selling on Moncrief as we’ve
been fooled before and won’t go back. Extremely late draft value for the production
he’ll give you.
Danny Amendola (MIA)
Perhaps
having enough of the New England way and seeing an opportunity to cash in on
last season’s success, Amendola will be the new slot receiver in Miami. The
potential exists for targets to come his way, but should be nothing more than a
bench-stash when the season opens. High risk of injury always follows Danny.
PPR formats only for Amendola yet again.
John Brown (BAL)
Even though
Brown has world class speed, his injury history and medical concerns keep him
off ADF’s radar going into the 2018 season. Brown screams free agent undrafted
player going into the fantasy football drafts.
Doug Martin (OAK)
Failing to
produce in Tampa Bay allowed the Bus to move on and watch him land in Oakland
to form a tandem with the aging Marshawn Lynch. Expectations are extremely low
for high-end production from the Muscle-Hamster but looks the part of being a
bench stash and a handcuff player.
Fantasy Football Potential:
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (JAX)
With
Seferian-Jenkins choosing to move back to the state of Florida, this time
signing with the Jaguars, the outlook has great potential for him to be a producer
at the tight end position. With a run heavy offensive scheme, ASJ will require
to improve his blocking ability to remain on the field and steal the role on
run plays from Mercedes Lewis to fulfill that high ceiling. Austin should see
plenty of redzone targets to inflate his fantasy outlook which at this point is
very uncertain. Having a backup plan if drafting Seferian-Jenkins should be the
route taken until proven otherwise.
Tyler Gabriel (CHI)
The speedy
slot receiver, who placed his talents back on the map in Atlanta, proved he was
a viable weapon when given the opportunity. Having the clear lead to take on
slot duties in Chicago, Gabriel could act much like tight end Tyler Burton as a
potential safety blanket for the young Mitchell Trubisky. If the Bears young
pivot exceeds his progression early, Gabriel could find himself as a low end
flex starter matchup player as the season wears on.
Case Keenum (DEN)
While ADF believes
Keenum was a product of his environment last year with the Vikings, he could
hold decent value in a Broncos offense that houses good receiving talent. The
major concern is the status of Denver’s offensive line and what that will do to
Keenum’s on filed progressions. Benefiting from a solid run game and great
protection in Minnesota is something that won’t be replicated with the Broncos.
Keenum is a deep league - late round draft pick and bench stash at best.
AJ McCarron (BUF)
The Buffalo Bills reached and signed frustrated career
backup AJ McCarron to fill the need at quarterback with only one option on the
roster. While there are no expectations for McCarron at this point, ADF does
buy into the notion that the potential does exist to hold McCarron in deep
keepers and Dynasty leagues, simply because the limited tape on the young
thrower. Realistically for redraft, AJ has to win the starting role and show
great levels of production to warrant any consideration for a roster spot. He
will remain un-draft-able and potentially a wavier target as production dictates,
if any.
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