As the NFL offseason
is in full swing, it’s a perfect opportunity to evaluate where each team was in
2017, and where they plan to go in the New Year. Let’s begin the review of
the Green Bay Packers.
2017 Season Recap:
With a great 2016 season falling short of meeting their goal of reaching
the Super Bowl losing to the Falcons in the NFC championship, the fire burned
deep to get back to the same position in 2017. The Packers organization is one
that promotes development of its own drafted talent by rewarding them with
contracts if their play justifies the action. With great levels of success
being achieved under star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, there was little to
question that Green Bay would again be in the conversation of a Super Bowl
favorite.
As opening day approached, the Packers method was somewhat different
after gaining success the year before. Converting wide receiver TY Montgomery
to be their full time running back, while keeping their receiving core intact,
the Pack found a way to utilize all their weapons with being on the field at
the same time. As the season began, the strategy took off brilliantly as the
Packers hosted the Seahawks and dominated the entire contest. Following a great
week one performance, the Packers traveled to Atlanta for a showdown rematch
of the NFC title game against the Falcons. What seemed to be a phenomenal week
two on paper meeting, both teams didn’t disappoint as fireworks lit the field
with fantastic performances all around. Even with Rodgers throwing for over 340
yards that day, the Falcons still had the Packers number sending them home in
defeat. In previewing the following three contests, Green Bay enjoyed an easier
slate for the first two games taking down the Bengals and the Bears for
consecutive victories. With a record of 3-1, another prime matchup was on the
docket as Green Bay traveled to Dallas to face off against the Cowboys in week
5. With Montgomery sitting this one out due to a rib injury, Green Bay found
talent in their second backup – Aaron Jones. Much like the Packers game against
the Falcons in week 2, this game brought fans to their feet regularly as they
witnessed 66 points go on the board with back and forth offensive production.
On the strength of another superb game from Aaron Rogers, the Packers found a
way to victory winning by four points. Entering week six with a record of 4-1,
the Pack had two very difficult upcoming contests against the Vikings and the
Saints.
On a sunny mid October day, the Green Bay faithful either travelled to
Minnesota or sat by their television sets excited to take in a division rival
match against the Vikings. Unfortunately, what the fanbase witnessed was a
straight gut punch that left them breathless. Seeing their star Aaron Rodgers
roll to his right evading the Vikings relentless pressure, line backer Anthony
Barr tackled Rodgers falling on his body awkwardly on a rough take down of the
quarterback. Rodgers lay on the ground riving in pain as most Packer fans held
their breath hearing updates of a possible collarbone break. Their worst fears
were confirmed the following day, that indeed Rodgers would be lost for most of
the season. Before Aaron went down, he was enjoying what was looking like
another run at a league MVP trophy with 13 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions
in 5 weeks of play. Moving forward without their franchise player, the Packers
put on a brave face attempting to roll with backup Brett Hundley as their
pivot. From week 6 to week 17, Green Bay was only able to muster three more
victories in 11 contests beating the Bears, Buccaneers, and the Browns.
Finishing the season with a 7-9 record with four of those wins coming from
Aaron Rodgers, proof to how invaluable he is to the franchise was on display. A
wasted season for all involved, they look to regroup and put their best foot
forward in 2018.
2018 Offseason
Workbook:
Offseason Review:
As Packers ownership
deliberated on the future of the club, they chose to hang tight and retain long
tenured Head Coach Mike McCarthy giving him a pass to a lost season contributed
from the season long injury to quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Still noticing a change
needed to be made on the coaching staff, McCarthy went to work in trying to
hire better pieces to help excel the team for 2018. Significant changes were
made to McCarthy’s supporting cast, as he hired Joe Philbin and Mike Pettine as
the offensive and defensive coordinators respectively. Philbin is a familiar
name to the Green Bay organization as in the past he held specialty coaching
positions with the team before taking over the Miami Dolphins head coaching job
back in 2012. Mike Pettine, the once Rex Ryan prodigy whom has been out of the
NFL for the past two seasons after a failed attempt to rebuild the Browns as
their head coach, has resurfaced to try and resurrect his career taking charge
of the Packers defense. With a slew of positional coaches being brought to
Green Bay to support his newly hired coordinators, this might be a staff that
is able to assist McCarthy in what could be his final year as the cheese-heads
bench boss.
Reviewing the offense
from 2017 is somewhat of a moot point as the true evaluation of their talent
wasn’t on full display without Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball. Never the less,
one bright spot could be extracted form the Packers offensive roster with the
surprising progression of running back Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones. Both
backs had their moments where they were very productive ripping off long runs
and generating a combined 1004 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. Without Rodgers,
the Packers were only able to generate bottom end statistics for the season.
Ranking 21st in points scored (20.0 PPG), 26th in total
yards (305.7 YPG), 25th in passing yards (197.9 YPG), and 17th
in rush yards (107.8 YPG), quite pedestrian for what we’re used to seeing form
the Pack. Perhaps the only other player on the offense that enjoyed an above
average year was receiver Davante Adams. Hauling in 74 catches for 885 yards
and 10 touchdowns earned Adams a contract extension before he was able to hit
the open market.
Defensively, the
Packers weren’t a lot better as their offense placed them in terrible
situations forcing them to stay on the field for extended periods of time.
Ranking 26th in points allowed (24.0 PPG) wasn’t a surprise to us
here at ADF. Ranking 22nd in total yards allowed (348.9 YPG), 23rd
in pass yards allowed (236.8 YPG), and 17th in rush yards allowed
(112.1 YPG) shows how inept the play of the Green Bay defense really was in
2017. As Coach McCarthy sits down to review his defense with general manager
Brian Gutekunst, they will notice many holes that need to be corrected on this
side of the ball. While this team revolves around Aaron Rodgers, the defense
was greatly exposed when leaned upon to make plays. Outside of star safety Ha
Ha Clinton-Dix, tackling machine line backer Blake Martinez, line backers Nick
Perry and aging Clay Matthews, with honorable mention to defensive tackle Mike
Daniels, this defense is in desperate need of a face lift. Adding defensive
line and pass rushing help to go along with any sort of talent infusion to the secondary;
will take precedent to all other moves on this team. History shows the Packers
have never been a team to make a big splash in free agency, so they will have
to improve via the draft.
Rostered Free Agents:
With almost 20 million
dollars under the cap Green Bay will have to do away with rostered players to
create more funds if they chose to resign some of their free agents. Luckily
enough for the Packers, the listing of rostered free agents is short and relatively
not gleaming with priorities to resign. It’s likely they allow safety Morgan
Burnett to hit the open market with his market value exploding to levels of
almost 10 million dollars, with a total salary of 4 years’ worth almost 40
million. Outside of Burnett, the Packers employ a list of aging players that
are expected to hit the street in search of new teams.
Green Bay has recently
been on record that they intend to work on a long term extension for Aaron
Rodgers, and based on current market place value for top tier quarterbacks has
him grossly underpaid. With two years left on his 110 million dollar deal,
fully expect Rodgers to be the highest paid player in NFL history. While
extending Aaron would equate to a nicer 2018 cap figure, there are plenty of players
Green Bay could do away with that would save them loads of cash. When they
chose to resign Devante Adams to his lucrative contract extension, it
handcuffed the Packers to paying three receivers a total of just over 35
million dollars for the 2018 season. Understanding that all three (Nelson,
Cobb, and Adams), have big play ability; it should be far too expensive to keep
all on the roster moving forward with the holes that exist on this club.
Cutting bait with Cobb would create roughly 9.5 million dollars in cap savings.
Seemingly having similar contracts, cutting Nelson would generate an additional
10.2 million back to the cap. In releasing both Cobb and Nelson, Green Bay
would only endure dead money in the realm of 5.5 million while saving a healthy
19.7 million on the books, almost a no brainer. Keeping the tone with high
priced veteran talent, Clay Matthews would also falls into the review as cap
casualty potential. For his recent production, his salary might be climbing a
little high for the Pack. Cutting bait with Matthews would instantly create
over 11 million in savings with no dead money on the books. Aside from the
potential of those cap cuts, the Packers do have room to trim depth players to
increase their cap if they so choose.
NFL Draft:
As mentioned above,
Green Bay historically drafts talent, develops their own, and keeps them on the
roster with valuable contracts. They will be able to continue this trend as the
house a multitude of selections, currently holding 11 picks in the NFL Draft.
Holding two 4th picks, three 5th picks, and two 6th
picks, Green Bay has a great opportunity to climb and drop the board as they
please. With defense being a great need with prime focus on the secondary,
finally fixing the offensive line shouldn’t go overlooked. Green Bay gave up a
terrible 51 sacks to their opponents last season with Rodgers hitting the
ground 22 times in six games.
With the Martellus
Bennett experiment going terribly wrong, expect the Packers to fill their giant
need at tight end through the draft rather then bring in another high priced
free agent to cause cap penalties for the team. Also, if they indeed chose to
release both Nelson and Cobb, receiver would instantly become another draft
priority to round out depth to play alongside Adams. There are many ways the
Packers could attack this draft, but we fully intend on seeing sound picks to
help this club move forward after witnessing this exposed squad without Rodgers
masking the issues.
Overall for 2018:
While last year was
the unfortunate anomaly, it’s never been clearer that this team lives and dies
with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron has stayed relatively healthy over his career so
there isn’t much concern we could be witnessing his body breakdown as he gets
older. If the Packer brain trust can build solid pieces around him
(specifically the offensive line), he would be able to work wonders even
without Nelson and Cobb catches his passes. The potential to move TY Montgomery
back to receiver is a viable option now that it seems Green Bay has struck gold
with two running backs currently on the roster. With that said, as deep as this
draft is for runners, expect them to add one more to the fold. Shoring up the
defense will be very important this season as most teams were able to move up
and down with ease on their previous unit. Clinton-Dix is a super star (and ADF
favorite) on that back end, but he requires assistance as he too covers up a
lot of what the Pack can’t do. There’s a lot to like with an upright Rodgers on
the field, but outside that - there’s plenty of work to do.
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