As the NFL offseason
is in full swing, it’s a perfect opportunity to evaluate where each team was in
2017, and where they plan to go in the New Year. Let’s begin the review of
the Dallas Cowboys.
2017 Season Recap:
Will he play or will
he get suspended, was the main focus going into the 2017 season for the Cowboys
and star running back Zeke Elliott. The situation became a nightmare for Coach
Garrett and company as they were forced to compile an offensive system knowing
it was a distinct possibility they wouldn’t have Elliott for an extended period
of time. As the appeal process with multiple judges played out, Dallas seemed
to be on the winning end as the NFL was forced to allow Zeke to suit up as the
season opened on September 10th. With expectations extremely high
based on a fantastic 2016 season that saw the Cowboys run the NFC East going
13-3, only to lose out to the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round of the
playoffs. The media was buzzing in Texas as second year pivot Dak Prescott
looked to improve of his unbelievable rookie season. With improvements made
through the draft to sore up some defensive holes, it seemed nothing would stop
this Dallas team from capturing their second straight division title.
With expectations on
their shoulders, the Dallas Cowboys started the trend early, winning their
opening matchup against division rival – the New York Giants, handling them
with ease even though they exercised uneven play at times. Traveling to mile
high in week two, saw them receive an old fashion butt whopping at the hands of
Trevor Siemian and the Denver Broncos. Licking their wounds and regrouping to
face off against the Cardinals in week three, the Cowboys got back on track
handling Arizona even though statistically they were severally out played. The
next two weeks Dallas faced off against the surprising surge of a refocused LA
Rams team losing by five in front of the home town faithful. Remaining at home
for their following week five contest against Aaron Rodgers, a fantastic
performance by Dak Prescott was met by the greatness of Rodgers as the Boys
dropped their second straight match heading into their bye week. With time to
collect themselves, coach Jason Garrett regrouped his squad while the schedule
makers provided gifts on the upcoming slate. The Cowboys made easy work of the
49ers in week 7, followed by a dismantling of the Redskins in week 8, only to
see Dallas capitalize on a slumping Chiefs team to go on a much needed three
game winning streak.
At 5-3 going into week
10, the hammer dropped with immense force as the NFL public learned judges had
rejected Elliott’s latest appeal which meant he was immediately suspended for
six games. With really no law left to argue, Elliott and his legal team decided
to move forward with the suspension, leaving Dallas in quite a bind. Without
their best and most consistent player on offense, the Cowboys were easily
figured out and became one dimensional unable to produce any offense while
dropping their next three games to the Falcons, Eagles, and the Chargers.
Housing a record of 5-6 and knowing that anything short of running the table
could result in missing the playoffs. Once again, the favor of a weaker
schedule allowed the Cowboys to scratch and claw their way in becoming victorious
in their next three contests against the Redskins, Giants, while receiving a
gift from above, as Derek Carr fumbled out the back of the endzone to seal the victory
against the Raiders. In a must win situation against the Seahawks with the
return of their golden boy (Zeke Elliott), fresh from suspension, there simply
wasn’t enough left in the tank to garner much enthusiasm as the season was
ultimately over for the Dallas Cowboys. Much could be said for the resilience
of this team that fought adversity and overcame difficult obstacles, but in the
end there just wasn’t enough magic.
2018 Offseason
Workbook:
Offseason Review:
With the inevitable
questions as the season ending press conference took place, one could only imagine
what the year would’ve looked like if not for the Elliott turmoil. Holding his
head high, driven with confidence, owner and general manager Jerry Jones vowed
to tinker and retool making this team again a powerhouse. With much speculation
and fan-base displeasure, Jerry Jones gave his head coach Jason Garrett a
gleaming review and a favorable endorsement to return to his rank for the 2018
season. As Garrett knew where he stood, the task to possibly recreate the
Cowboys coaching staff was now on the table and ready for review. Though many
voiced their displeasure, Garrett ultimately chose to stay the course retaining
both offensive and defensive coaches in Scott Linehan and Rod Marinelli
respectively. With nineteen coaching positions currently maned on the Cowboys
staff, changeover saw a slight number with six new additions – three of whom
were internal promotions capping the remaining three as external hires. Most
notable individuals to join the Dallas brass, is former Seattle Seahawk defensive
coordinator Kris Richard and well traveled receivers coach Sanjay Lal. Though Richard
will act as defensive backs coach, he should bring a level of youth with solid
experience to a Dallas unit that requires much stability and overall
improvement. Sanjay Lal is one of the best in the business in exploiting talent
from receivers that might not have the basics down. Both should be fine hires
for the Cowboys.
Diving right into the
offense, the Cowboys fundamentally have inadequacies that were greatly exposed
once Elliott was lost to his suspension. The main issue plaguing the offense
was the lack of depth at wide receiver outside of star Dez Bryant. Terrance
Williams has proven he’s a one trick pony unable to sustain much success other
then being the Dallas deep threat which could easily be improved upon this
offseason. With Cole Beasley and Ryan Switzer virtually holding identical
skillsets as above average slot receivers, (though Switzer has the greater
potential), creativity to get both on the field wasn’t something that was taken
advantage of. Its very clear the Boys require a massive talent infusion at the
position to help their young quarterback distribute the ball. Long time Cowboy
tight end Jason Witten is another player that has past his prime, and Jerry
Jones should look elsewhere to fill this gaping need. Its incredible to fathom
the recent news surrounding the potential release of literally their only viable
receiving option in Dez Bryant. Understandably Jerry Jones is looking to create
additional cap space for the betterment of the roster, but cutting bait with
Bryant would be a colossal mistake. Witnessing Dak Prescott follow up a superb
rookie campaign with all numbers below his previous benchmarks would scream
concern if his number one target was allowed to leave big D. The Cowboys
statistically weren’t terrible last season as their run game still lead the
charge ranking 2nd best in the NFL with a fantastic 135.6 yards per
game. Ranking 14th in both points for (22.1 PPG), and total yards
(331.9 YPG), would indicate Dallas was able to move the ball and compete quite
regularly. With that said, the Dallas pass game was anemic ranking 26th
in the league with 196.3 yards per contest. While the offensive line still
remains the cream of the crop in the NFL, the Cowboys issues offensively seem
extremely clear to us here at ADF. Providing more explosive talent at the
receiving core and tight end positions will go a long way in bringing this club
back to levels most expect.
Defensively, Dallas
was far improved from the leaky unit we saw from 2016. The Cowboys defensive
line was a fantastic squad behind all-star defensive end Demarcus Lawrence.
Teamed with the solid play of David Irving and the improving skill of rookie
Taco Charlton, the Cowboys again have a unit filled with skill and depth that
is feared on a weekly basis. Jerry Jones also began solidifying a defensive
back core that was in much need of a face lift from a year ago. With Orlando
Scandrick getting long in the tooth completing his 11th season,
Dallas retooled with standout rookie Chidobe Awuzie and much improved rookie as
the season wore on in Xavier Woods. With Anthony Brown and Byron Jones rounding
out the unit, there’s plenty to get excited about in the future progression of
these young talented players. While adding more depth to the defensive line and
defensive back units will only increase the potential of success for the
Cowboys, the glaring need remains with the line backing core. No one will argue
that when healthy and on the field, Sean Lee is a high volume producing player
that provides much leadership to the defense. Entering his 9th
season, it might be time for Jerry Jones to look elsewhere for this production.
Dallas did score a golden ticket when they took a chance and drafted injured and
former Notre Dame standout - Jaylon Smith. Completing his first season playing
in all sixteen contests, Smith proved he was able to return and manufacture
plays on the field with regularity. Undoubtedly heading for a larger role in
2018, Jones will have to draft a supporting cast to assist in creating a
dynamic duo that can be feared by the opposition. As mentioned, Dallas was a
much improved unit from the previous year, but still lacked that killer
instinct that could take over games when needed. Generating middle of the pack
numbers, Dallas finished the season 8th in total yards against
(318.1 YPG), 11th in pass yards allowed (214.1 YPG), and 8th
in rush yards allowed (104.0 YPG). This defense was exposed at the worst time
of games, as mental lapses teamed with fatigue left the Boys with the 13th
ranked unit in points allowed (20.8 PPG). Improvements definitely need to be made,
but the Dallas defense isn’t far off.
Rostered Free Agents:
With holes existing on
the Cowboys roster, they still possess a decent amount of cap room holding just
over 22 million dollars to spend. Their current free agent listing isn’t
something that will overwhelm them, as they only have 11 players in need of a
new contract. The biggest name on this list is star DE DeMarcus Lawrence who is
coming off his rookie contract and looks to cash in large with his second NFL
deal. For the numbers he’s produced over his first four years, the market value
has exploded for a player of his caliber. The numbers could easily entertain a
value in the realm of 5 years 70 million dollars with a guaranteed dollar
figure of 20-30 million. With 22 million on the books to spend, DeMarcus could
eat up a fair portion of that, holding an average annual salary of 14 million
if this type of deal is stuck. The other notable free agent on the list is line
backer Anthony Hitchens. Another youthful player on the Cowboys defense that
has out played his rookie contract looks to enjoy a nice pay increase also. For
his skillset and production, Hitchens should see his market value shoot up to
the likes of 4 years at approximately 25 million dollars. If Dallas indeed
chooses to resign both Lawrence and Hitchens, they would essentially burn
through 20 million of their 22 million dollars in cap space leaving them thin
to maneuver elsewhere to obtain talent.
With these two high
priced free agents, it’s no wonder the Cowboys are entertaining the option to
release Dez Bryant as he would instantly create an additional 8.5 million in
cap savings. While ADF feels Dez will be a Cowboy in 2018, there are a few
players the Boys could part with to generate money without removing the key
talent on the club. As mentioned above in our team evaluation, Jason Witten is
a prime cut candidate which could easily save the Boys 6.5 million with no dead
cap applied to the books. Jerry Jones is known for his loyalty to long tenured
players, but this one makes too much sense to not execute. Cole Beasley is
another player that screams cut bait, especially since Dallas drafted Ryan
Switzer last year and they possess a very similar skillset where Switzer has
more youthful potential. Dropping Beasley would save Dallas a nice 3.25 million
on the books. While this might not be a popular move, it should be reviewed as
kicker Dan Bailey would create another 3.4 million is savings if the Boys
decide to let their stud kicker walk out the door. Outside of those moves,
Dallas would only be able to save money in releasing depth players to create
some extra cash flow for the 2018 season.
NFL Draft:
It’s not inconceivable the Cowboys could do away with some rostered talent, as they hold a plethora of
picks in the upcoming draft. Owners of ten selections having two fourth picks,
two fifth picks, and two sixth picks should be enough capital to move up and
down the board if they so choose. With glaring needs at receiver and tight end,
Dallas would also entertain adding depth to the defensive line and defensive back
units. With their first three selections in the top 81 picks, Dallas could go
offense heavy to start their draft. ADF could easily see a receiver, a tight
end, and a line backer be the first selections with their three picks.
Jerry Jones is very
transparent to how he’s building this club as to mirror similarly the glory
days of when they were Super Bowl champions. Building strong offensive and defensive
lines was the key, while having a great running attack, a solid quarterback,
and complementing the surrounding pieces with enough talent to become a
dominating force. Jerry has been known to throw the draft board for a loop with
selections deemed lower then when he picks them. So far his retooling has be
somewhat successful and we believe he will again get the draft right acquiring great
talent.
Overall for 2018:
The Dallas Cowboys are a team that fell to unfortunate circumstances
last season and look to get back to their 2016 season that was consistent with
winning. ADF believes in what the Cowboys could potentially have on this roster
with added pieces to help the progression. The interesting saga will be Dak
Prescott and how he’ll rebound from an average sophomore campaign that saw regression
rather than progression which was expected. The caveat of course, is the
handling of their primary pass catcher in Dez Bryant. If Jerry allows Dez to
walk out the door, he will regret his choice as finding talented players like
Bryant isn’t something this draft class is loaded with. Without providing Prescott
with viable receiving talent, he will undoubtedly be hard pressed to generate
much more offense than we saw from 2017. If Dallas can figure out their cap and
sign the players that are the priority while keeping the bloodlines intact, we
could see a very much improved team in 2018. 
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