NFL AFC / NFC Championship - Point Spread Picks

PLACE YOUR BETS!!! Championship Weekend has arrived!! ADF continues to generate 50% winnings throughout the playoffs keeping our season record four games below the .500 mark. Looking to finish the season strong, we evaluate and predict the AFC & NFC Championship games for the right to play in the Super Bowl! Your final chance to generate positive cash flow is upon us as the season is coming to an end. Bet big on these spreads to stack your bank accounts. Follow me and we’ll get you that money. Good Luck!

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Divisional Round Point Spread Record: 2-2 (.500)

Season Point Spread Record:  130-134 (.492)

CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND– Predictions (Projected odds makers @ JAN.19.2018 – 12:00PM EST)

Sunday Jan.21.2018

Jacksonville @ New England (Favorite)

Westgate -7.5

Caesar’s -7.5

William Hill -7.5

Wynn -7.5

CG -7.5

Unibet -7.5

SportSelect -9.5

THE JAGUARS: We have arrived and its time, Welcome to the AFC Championship to kickoff championship weekend in the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars are back in the mix and are once again playing in the AFC Championship for the first time since 1999. This isn’t your fathers Jaguars, as this unit is built solely on elite defense and a fantastic run game. This team has adopted the nickname “Sacksonville”, and rightfully so! The Jags ended second in the NFL in terms of total team sacks, racking up 55 takedowns of opposing quarterbacks. Adding to that impressive statistic, Jacksonville also found themselves ranked second in the NFL in interceptions (21), one behind the Baltimore Ravens! There isn’t much this defense can’t do, as they’re built perfectly with speed, skill, awareness, ball-hawking ability, all combined with a perfect defensive scheme! ADF could sit and break down each player on this defense with great enthusiasm as many elite players co-exist on this squad. Offensively, the Jaguars are a much simpler group created to run the ball first and set up the play action pass to keep teams guessing. Coach Marrone has attempted to ease his reliance on Blake Bortles while providing enough confidence in the young passer to keep the offense humming. The Jaguars are an above-average/elite Quarterback away from being a dominate team for the next three to five years!

THE PATRIOTS: Here again, the New England Patriots and their video-game-esc dominance over the NFL these last fifteen + years, is on display for the seventh straight time in the AFC Championship game. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have created a sustainable formula to consistently find themselves in this position fighting for a chance to play in the big game. Different from past seasons, Belichick actually opened up the pocket book and paid high price free agents luring them to Boston in hopes to again be in this situation. For most of the season, Matt Patricia found it difficult to make the defensive unit come together and gel in being a dominating defense like most thought they would be. As the season wore on, Patricia was able to adjust his scheme and pull as much out of his squad that he could, and what a job he did. The Pats defense was ranked at the bottom of the league in most statistical categories until about the half way point of the season. Patricia and Belichick finished the season fourth last in yards allowed, but cleaned it up enough to become a bend but don’t break unit, allowing the fifth best in points allowed, impressive turnaround. Offensively, we all know this team lives and dies at the hands of the great Tom Brady. At the age of 40, Brady looks to have lost more on his deep ball then in past seasons. With the addition of speedster Brandin Cooks, the offense didn’t look as dominating as most experts predicted in training camp. The Patriots are still built on the strength of the short pass game, teamed with adequate running behind Dion Lewis, and trying to take the top off of defenses with Cooks. With all that said we didn’t even mention Brady’s number one security blanket in Rob Gronkowski. This team is built for these games and will have a great game plan ahead.

THE MATCHUP: The Patriots find themselves as more than a touchdown favorite in this one, as Vegas believes they can bait the betting public into this spread. The Jaguars defense is built perfectly under the tutelage of the Patriot killer Tom Coughlin, and will give Brady and co. everything they can handle. If executed perfectly, the Jags can easily hang with the weapons New England intends to exploit on Sunday. Jalen Ramey should draw shadow coverage on Gronkowski for the entire game much like the Broncos did with Aqib Talib. AJ Bouye should shadow Brandin Cooks, leaving Miles Jack and Telvin Smith to cover Dion Lewis and James White out of the back field. With the Jags front four able to generate intense pressure on Brady without relying on the blitz, Sacksonville could have a good day. Offensively the Jaguars will have to replicate the exact production from last week from rookie sensation Leonard Fournette. Controlling the clock and playing fantastic shutdown defense will again be the formula for Jacksonville to get to their first Super Bowl.

The Patriots and Bill Belichick are masters at finding, exposing, and capitalizing on their opponent’s weaknesses. This game will be no different as New England will dare Blake Bortles to beat them while they attempt to shut down the Jags league best run attack. The Patriots definitely have enough tools on defense to game plan and execute stacking the box in hopes to contain Leonard all game. This is where this game will be won for either side – the Jags offense vs the Patriots defense! Brady should be able to get some things moving on a defense that allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw five touchdowns last week. With that said, New England doesn’t possess the talents of Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell! The Patriots are beatable in this one, as this Jaguars squad was built with the Patriots in mind. New England’s experience should get them to another Super Bowl, but this game will be closer than Vegas indicates. NE doesn’t cover the spread @ -7.5 JAX 20 NE 24 (W)

Minnesota (Favorite) @ Philadelphia

Westgate -3

Caesar’s -3

William Hill -3

Wynn -3

CG -3

Unibet -3.5

SportSelect -3.5

THE VIKINGS: The Minnesota Miracle is what people are calling last week’s unbelievable conclusion to the NFC divisional round contest between the Vikings and the Saints. The Vikings snuck into the NFC Championship game by the skin of their teeth, as the Saints were able to claw back from a seventeen point deficit to take the lead with just over a minute left on the clock. With time dwindling, and the Vikings season on thin ice, Case Keenum tossed a perfect pass to Stefon Diggs and the rest is history! Minnesota has enjoyed somewhat of a Cinderella season as journeymen Quarterback Case Keenum saved and elevated the Vikings to a place no one would’ve expected. To Keenum’s credit, he had a fantastic season easily beating his career highs since entering the league in 2013. The formula is simple, run the ball well, execute pass plays without turning the ball over, play superb defense. This Vikings team is built extremely well in almost every aspect on the field. The offensive line upgrades were an integral part of making Keenum and this run game work. Defensively, the Vikings took things to a new level this season as their elite talent truly became elite! Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes have become two of the most difficult players to attack on the field. Teamed with a fantastic pass rush and line backer core, Minnesota has become much like the Jaguars, an elite defensive unit. After last week and the miracle play that transpired, all the stars could be aligned for the Vikings to host and win their first championship in franchise history.

THE EAGLES: A season of destiny seemingly came crashing down as the leg of their franchise Quarterback Carson Wentz was hyper-extended thus tearing his ACL. Not to worry Eagles fans, you still found a way to advance to the NFC Championship game despite your misfortunes being led by another journeyman Quarterback in Nick Foles. As important as Wentz is to the offense and the Eagles, Philly is yet another example of a team built to near perfection able to compete on a weekly basis! The Eagles have a trio of backs where each can come in and cause damage. The receiving core was a spectacular improvement from a year ago as free agent additions along with realized talent, (Nelson Agholor), elevated the offense further. Defensively, the Eagles are a club that house a front seven that can rival any team in the NFL. The Secondary is vastly improved and were poised to continue the upward progression as the season wore on. Coach Pederson coming from the Andy Reid Coaching tree has built the team on fundamentals that thus far haven’t failed them. With Carson Wentz healthy, this team is one to be feared as they could score with the best in the league. Without Wentz, the Eagles are forced into running the ball with greater effectiveness to help produce in the pass game. Last week against the Falcons, Nick Foles performed brilliantly in the second half leading his club to victory. If the same scheme can be executed this week, the Eagles could go back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2004.

THE MATCHUP: Both teams come into this contest with the exact winning records of 13-3. The Vikings however have been placed as the slight favorite by Vegas as winners by a field goal. It’s not difficult to understand the rational for placing the odds in favor of the Vikings even though they travel to Philadelphia and play in the hostile environment of Lincoln Financial Field. Though Minnesota almost gave away the game a week ago, and had to rely on magical intervention to get them though, on paper they are the better team. Housing the best defensive unit in the NFL, they should have no issues in getting to Nick Foles and stifling a strong Eagle run game. It took the great Drew Brees three quarters to figure out how to attack this elite unit, which in turn have learned a valuable lesson - never let your guard down! Minnesota should be able to chunk yards down the field on the strength of their run game allowing their receivers to find open area’s to attack. If the Vikings learnt a lesson from last week it would indeed be – keep the pedal to the metal until the clock runs out.

The Eagles hopes and dreams in a fantastic season lead by their second year pivot, comes down to Sunday with their backup Quarterback whom has been in heavy situations before. Nick Foles has proven he is a capable player in difficult situations lifting his play to areas most think he couldn’t. The Eagles should have prepared and reviewed tape from both games second half’s to adequately generate a formable game plan. The way Philly can be victorious in this contest is with their defense and run game stealing the show. If they can produce long drives holding Keenum off the field for long periods of time, they could be successful and going to the Super Bowl. If the Vikings defense has a weakness - they tend to drift in games allowing their opponents the ability to regain momentum. Keeping the Vikings defense on the field is a tougher task then it sounds. They are the best unit in the NFL in most all defensive categories, they are an elite unit. Getting creative will be important as exploiting any mismatch (if any), could result in points for the Eagles. With Carson Wentz this pick would most likely favor the home town Eagles, but alas, it should be the Vikings being the first team in NFL history to host the Super Bowl! MIN covers the spread @ -3 MIN 7 PHI 38 (L) 


Championship Record: 1-1 (.500)         

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