As
the fantasy season has come to an end its important to evaluate each position
gaining understanding of their current value. Current season value and previous
season finishes are great evaluating factors to where each player should reside
for the upcoming season. This evaluation is based on a 16-game fantasy season
PPR custom format. Let’s review!
2017 Top 10 Fantasy Football Running Backs:
Todd Gurley (LAR)
2017 Points: 354.03 | 2016 Points: 186.30 | Net Gain/Loss: +167.73
(Rank #1)
The
best pick at running back for the 2017 fantasy season went to Todd Gurley. So
much promise once again restored for the star running back under Head Coach
Sean McVay and his youthful play calling. Gurley preformed magically this season
having consistent production throughout the year giving his owners a great shot
at the championship. With Todd posting a positive point differential of +167,
put Gurley back atop the conversation of being one of the best fantasy runners
for 2018. The Rams will continue to build on a very solid foundation through
the draft and free agency. The most impressive statistic for Gurley moving
toward is the amount of carries he didn’t see. Rushing the ball 279 times this
season, bodes well for a repeat if not more production next year. The trend
with runners going over 300 carries for a season usually suggests a decline.
Gurley should be one of the top running backs drafted in 2018.
LeVeon Bell (PIT)
2017 Points: 318.77 | 2016 Points: 293.87 | Net Gain/Loss: +24.9
(Rank #2)
The
great LeVeon Bell did it again this season amidst playing under the franchise
tag and not reporting to the team until September 1st. His season
started slow as he regained his football shape, but once he found his legs there
was no stopping him. LeVeon increased his production from last season almost
gaining 30 more fantasy points from the previous year. Bell is an amazing
talent the likes the NFL hasn’t seen before. He is the most patient runner and
has the ability to burn any defense through the pass game, makes him the best
PPR running back in the league. 2018 should bring some question marks as the
Steelers might look vastly different. Bell again would need to be signed to a
long term deal to stay in Pittsburgh as he looks to be the highest paid running
back in the NFL, something the Steelers may not want to do. The uncertain future
of Ben Roethlisberger adds to the unclear path Pittsburgh will have moving into
2018. There is a possibility that Bell is fortunate enough to find a squad willing
to pay top dollar for his services while still housing a competitive team.
Either way, Bell’s stock could fall with the changes that could come to pass
either in Pittsburgh or elsewhere. With the influx of talent at the running
back position this season, and a plethora of gifted backs coming in from the
draft, there might be more value elsewhere. This situation should be observed
carefully.
Alvin Kamara (NWO)
2017 Points: 292.87 | 2016 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: +292.87
(Rank #3)
The
2017 rookie running back class was one for the ages, as there are four rookies in
the top ten of producing backs in fantasy football this year. Starting off the
review was the dynamic, electric - Alvin Kamara. This kid took the NFL by storm
in week 3 and never looked back. The best move for Kamara’s stock was when the
Saints traded Adrian Peterson in an uber-crowded back field showing trust in
his abilities. Kamara didn’t disappoint the coaching staff by teaming up in one
of the best running back duos in NFL history (statistically), with Mark Ingram.
In PPR leagues Alvin was a beast posting games with a floor of 11 fantasy
points and a ceiling of 34 fantasy points in the last 13 games of the season
(with one game injured). As a rookie, in a split backfield, Alvin posted
unbelievable numbers for his owners. Looking forward to 2018, Kamara is a prime
candidate for regression in terms of fantasy football. Many circumstances will
dictate Kamara’s value next season as it’s very possible Drew Brees and Mark
Ingram aren’t a part of this squad. ADF is a believer in what Kamara brings to
the table, but beware of over drafting him come August 2018. Being in a split system
with a bruiser like Ingram, promotes Alvin’s ability as a change of pace back
able to take advantage of opposing defenses. In PPR leagues, Kamara shouldn’t get
out of the top fifteen, but again his value will be determined based on the
supporting cast. Either way, it was a fantastic season for the rookie.
Kareem Hunt (KC)
2017 Points: 280.03 | 2016 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: +280.03
(Rank #4)
Headlining
rookie number two holding the 4th ranked position for fantasy
runners is Kareem Hunt. Kareem blew the doors off to start the season making him
a household name virtually right out of the gates. Weeks one to three Hunt was
proving he was worth the price of admission posting a floor of 24 fantasy
points. As the season began to ware on, Kareem seemed to hit the rookie wall, along
with inept play calling derailing the phenomenal start. Weeks eight to thirteen
Hunt was looking more as an RB3 rather than the starter he was drafted to be.
Luckily for fantasy owners, Coach Reid handed over play calling duties allowing
Hunt to once again be more involved in the offensive scheme. Just in time for
the fantasy playoffs, Hunt turned his season back to how it began posting a
floor of 20 and a ceiling of 38 fantasy points. With all that said, Hunt found
himself leading the NFL in rushing yards for 2017, very impressive. The outlook
in 2018 for Hunt should remain extremely high, with the potential for Patrick
Mahomes taking over as the starting quarterback in Kansas City. It’s very difficult
to argue Hunt not being a top pick in 2018.
Melvin Gordon (LAC)
2017 Points: 271.23 | 2016 Points: 236.63 | Net Gain/Loss: +34.6
(Rank #5)
Another
banner year for Melvin Gordon as he again proves his consistency to fantasy
owners solidifying his value. Gordon is the staple in the Chargers offense and
should continue his production into 2018. LA started slow in the standings but
Melvin remained consistent putting up big numbers for his owners on nearly a
weekly basis. Of the sixteen games this season, Gordon posted only three games
below 10 fantasy points, very impressive. With Coach Lynn running the show, the
Chargers will always have a deep commitment in running the ball. Moving toward
the 2018 season, great value might be had as Gordon could see his stock fall
simply due to the amount of productive running backs in this year’s draft.
Philip Rivers hasn’t indicated he intends to hang up the cleats just yet,
providing stability in the Chargers offense for Gordon to replicate his 2017
season. If strong pieces can be added to the Chargers offensive line, the Bolts
could be a dangerous squad and a very balanced offense. Gordon has great value
next year.
Mark Ingram (NWO)
2017 Points: 264.13 | 2016 Points: 231.57 | Net Gain/Loss: +32.56
(Rank #6)
Mark
Ingram seems to play with an eternal chip on his shoulder feeling the need to
prove he belongs in the best running back category. For his skill set in the
Saints offense, Ingram again proved his dominance oozing production generating immense
value. Teamed with Alvin Kamara in one of the best duo backfields in NFL history,
the Saints dropped their first two games of the season then rolling to win
eight straight. In that time the Saints adjusted their offensive scheme to
involve a run heavy attack which produced on a weekly basis. In terms of
fantasy production, Ingram was a top dog rarely letting down his owners this season.
For 2018, Ingram could have an interesting offseason as a clause in his current
contract sees the potential of him becoming a free agent if he’s named to the
All-Pro team. With the cap struggles the Saints have, it could be difficult to
imagine resigning Ingram if Drew Brees doesn’t rework his current deal to help
keep Mark in the Big Easy. At this point it is very difficult to predict what
Ingram’s value will be for next season, but he might hold some of the highest
value to draft stock in the upcoming draft.
LeSean McCoy (BUF)
2017 Points: 246.67 | 2016 Points: 283.43 | Net Gain/Loss: -36.76
(Rank #7)
Shady
McCoy once again proved he is the Buffalo Bills offense, even though he took a
sharp step back in the realm of touchdowns and yards per carry in 2017. Those
stats normally would indicate a sure decline in ability as Shady is getting
ready to celebrate his 30th birthday this summer. Realistically,
Shady hasn’t lost a step as lost production is attributed to him learning another
new system, and facing nine man boxes with no real threat of a pass game. His
ability to avoid big hits will undoubtedly extend his career and keep pace with
his current level of play for at least another 2 years. The Bills could be a
team on the rise under McDermott and Beane, as they intend to build this squad
for future dominance. Looking to 2018, Shady could see a very similar season as
the one which past, if the Bills choose to draft and start a rookie signal
caller moving on from Tyrod Taylor. The Bills do have a lot of holes on this
team offensively that will need to be addressed in free agency and the draft.
If this team continues to build correctly, McCoy could have very nice value in
the 2018 draft.
Carlos Hyde (SF)
2017 Points: 221.33 | 2016 Points: 184.67 | Net Gain/Loss: +36.66
(Rank #8)
Looking
back at the 2017 season for running backs, the biggest shocker to ADF was the
amount of production Coach Shanahan got out of Carlos Hyde. Ranking in the 8th
position producing almost 40 more points than a season ago, Hyde placed himself
in a favorable situation as he enters free agency. The 49ers tried contract
negotiations with Hyde with nothing settled as Carlos banked on his abilities to
generate more cash flow for his future. His season was quietly consistent as he
produced early on only to see a snap count drop off as the season wore on. The
49ers did employ more of a split backfield approach late using Matt Breida to
spell carries from Hyde. Carlos’ situation is extremely interesting for the
2018 season as he could definitely sign with another club. If the interest is mutual,
and Hyde decides to resign in San Fran, the situation looks to be very
promising with Jimmy Garoppolo manning the ship. With tread still left on the
tires, Hyde could find himself in more of a split system for whatever team he
plays for. Posting over 200 fantasy points is still viable for the 26 year old
back, but unless his situation is ideal, Carlos should see declined value in
2018.
Leonard Fournette (JAX)
2017 Points: 218.13 | 2016 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: +218.13
(Rank #9)
Yet
another impressive rookie for the 2017 running back class, we see Leonard
Fournette man the 9th rank in fantasy football. Leonard began the
season flying out of the gates showing the NFL he was worth the fourth overall
pick in the draft. The Jaguars had a perfect scheme for the impressive runner using
a ground and pound approach limiting the amount of throws from Blake Bortles.
As the season wore on it was apparent Fournette wasn’t able to sustain the punishment
in his first NFL season as he found himself frequently injured and playing
hurt. Learning the ins and outs of the pro game will be invaluable for Leonard
moving into 2018. Understanding what it’ll take to keep himself healthy for a
full sixteen games will be priority for next season. With that said, the
Jaguars have proven they’re for real, and should continue to build on their
successes making Fournette a key cog in their future. His value will be high
going into the 2018 fantasy draft.
Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
2017 Points: 206.90 | 2016 Points: N/A | Net Gain/Loss: +206.90
(Rank #10)
Yet
another impressive rookie to cap off the top ten running backs in PPR is
Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers began the season trying to force CMC into a
role that perhaps he will never be able to handle in the NFL. Running through
the tackles is very important for running backs if they intend to keep their
job as the primary back. Once the Panthers brain trust realized forcing the
issue was a moot point, they began installing plays that would enhance his
success as a pass catcher and playmaker. Falling 9 receptions shy of breaking
Reggie Bush’s record for most receptions by a rookie running back, Christian
still managed to haul in a very impressive 80 catches. CMC is a dynamic playmaker
once he has the rock in the open field, allowing his agile ability to generate positive
gains. McCaffrey might be able to learn how to navigate in-between tackles in
the future, but here at ADF we aren’t holding our breath. CMC should have a
long productive career mirroring the likes of the great Eric Metcalf. His draft
value in 2018 will be high in PPR leagues.
2017 Top 5 Failed Value Running Backs:
David Johnson (ARZ)
2017 Points: 9.77 | 2016 Points: 376.50 | Net Gain/Loss: -366.73 (2016
Rank #1)
Not
much could’ve been done to avoid the train-wreck for the number one overall
fantasy football pick in 2017. DJ played all but one contest generating almost
10 PPR fantasy points before he broke his forearm eventually finding himself on
injured reserve. The Cardinals will be in transition for 2018 with news that
Coach Arians and Carson Palmer have retired, as similar questions for the great
Larry Fitzgerald will follow. Johnson should still possess top tear value as he’s
just too good.
Zeke Elliott (DAL)
2017 Points: 194.23 | 2016 Points: 309.30 | Net Gain/Loss: -115.07
(2016 Rank #2)
The
year to forget for Zeke Elliott owners as the season began on a massive high
feeling like their draft day gamble was going to pay off. Starting and
preforming all the way to week nine, Elliott began serving his six game suspension
in week ten. Zeke was on pace to finish the season with over 300 fantasy points
before he lost those six games. There is no question Elliott and the Cowboys
will be back to form in 2018 assuming Zeke can keep his hands out of the cookie
jar staying away from trouble. Elliott will again be a top selection in 2018.
DeMarco Murray (TEN)
2017 Points: 162.63 | 2016 Points: 281.17 | Net Gain/Loss: -118.54
(2016 Rank #5)
One
of the biggest disasters of 2017 was the play of DeMarco Murray. It’s become
very easy to predict Murray future seasons as the amount of carries the year
before will dictate his next season production. With that, the Titans took a
step back on offense trying to become a throw first team when they are set up
to run the ball. Having less than 200 touches might bode well for Murray’s
outlook in 2018, but Derek Henry should be looking to take on a bigger role in
the offense. Murray’s value should plummet but could hold value as a bench
stash PPR play next season.
Devonta Freeman (ATL)
2017 Points: 186.63 | 2016 Points: 268.70 | Net Gain/Loss: -82.07
(2016 Rank #6)
From
all things fantasy related it was a disappointing season for Freeman. Devonta
was creeping in on losing almost 100 total points for his owners, as the
Falcons struggled to gel offensively under OC Steve Sarkisian. There is no
question Freeman possesses top tear talent, but many question marks rest in
Atlanta to see him generate career numbers seen from 2016. Still a viable
option moving forward in 2018, he could provide extremely great value based on
his draft stock. He should improve on his totals next year.
LeGarrette Blount (PHI)
2017 Points: 105.93 | 2016 Points: 230.63 | Net Gain/Loss: -124.70
(2016 Rank #9)
Not
much of a surprise that Blount is the biggest falling value running back from
2017. Seemingly, Bill Belichick is the only Coach on the plant that knows how
to exploit the skill-set of the downhill power back. Blount should again be an
afterthought in the offseason as the Eagles are stacked at the position leaving
LeGarrette looking for work again. Not much fantasy relevance coming from
Blount unless he finds his way back to New England.
2018 Top Potential Running Backs:
Dalvin Cook (MIN)
2017 Points: 62.40 | 2018 Projected Points: 250-270
As
season full of promise was cut short for potential star rookie Dalvin Cook. Cook
viewed as quick, decisive, having great vision, good hands, and playmaking
ability before he went down. Losing his season to an ACL is somewhat
concerning, but in his youth he should be able to recover and bounce back with little
effects. The Vikings are a team that could change offensively as all their
quarterbacks will become free agents. Cook’s rehab will be one to observe this offseason
along with roster moves. He should have great value going into next season.
Alex Collins (BAL)
2017 Points: 162.77 | 2018 Projected Points: 220-260
An
ADF fan favorite as the season wore on was the play of Alex Collins. This kid
impressed greatly with his ability in every aspect of the game. Quick, agile,
blocking ability, receiving ability, and trucking power, Collins displayed it
all this season. It took the Ravens some time to figure out that Alex deserved
the starting role, but once they did he took off. The potential value for
Collins moving into 2018 is extremely high as Baltimore looks to improve their
roster.
Kenyan Drake (MIA)
2017 Points: 134.33 | 2018 Projected Points: 240-250
Surprise
up and comer late in the season was former Alabama product Kenyan Drake.
Gaining the trust of Coach Gase as the season wore on made Jay Ajayi expendable
as the Dolphins shipped him to the Eagles giving Drake the lead role. Drake didn’t
disappoint as he proved he was worthy of more touches with speed and power
moving the Fins offense. Kenyan tore up the last five weeks of the season
generating 84.7 fantasy points in that span. Those totals equate to a fantastic
16.94 points average per game. With Ryan Tannehill set to return from his ACL
injury, things could be looking up in South Florida, and Drake is prime to
produce in 2018. Fantastic value will be had in Drake next season.
Derrick Henry (TEN)
2017 Points: 129.47 | 2018 Projected Points: 200
2018
could be the year Derek Henry sees an expanded role in the Titans offense.
Putting the shackles on this great runner has limited his ability to become a
dominate fantasy running back. Henry possesses all the talent to be a sixteen
game starter in the NFL and would be able to produce at a high level. As long
as the Tennessee Coaching staff keep Henry in neutral, his stock will remain much
the same. The gamble in drafting Henry could pay off in 2018 if he becomes the
lead dog in a system built to run.
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