As the offseason begins to take shape, the discussion on
roster improvement and player movement is front and center. Teams will be
looking to shed salary on top of the players already listed as free agents. As
of today these are the top listed FA’s looking for new contracts. The Fantasy
Football impact is definitely real as players entertain staying with their
clubs or moving on to a new system. Exciting times are upon us, as teams begin
to re-tool and build for next season. It’s time to speculate!
Top Free Agent Running Backs:
LeVeon
Bell (PIT)
Age: 25
| 2017 Salary: $12,120,000 | FA Rank #1
Still very
much in his prime, LeVeon Bell again finds himself without a contract for the
2018 season with no real leverage. The Steelers are well aware of what a talent
like Bell is worth on the open market at age 25, and yet they refuse to play
the man. At this point in his career, Bell has very little leverage in contract
negotiations other than sitting out for an entire year allowing him to then
become a free agent in 2019. Amassing an astonishing amount of work in his career,
the Steelers have loaded Bell with 1541 touches in five years! It’s very clear
that Bell is vastly under-paid and has threatened to sit out or retire if
Pittsburgh were to use the franchise tag for another year. The Steelers realize
their window is closing to win championships with Ben Roethlisberger nearing
retirement, and have already committed huge money to Antonio Brown, making the
Bell situation difficult. The 2017 numbers dictate the appropriate frustrations
coming from the Bell camp. In 2017 – Bell touched the ball 406 times giving him
a pay cheque of $29,852 per touch off his twelve million dollar guaranteed
contract. Comparing that to Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons; Freeman
touched the ball 292 times giving him a pay cheque of $62,660 per touch off his
eighteen million dollar guaranteed contract. Who wouldn’t be frustrated!
There are
two major concerns going into the 2018 NFL season in regards to LeVeon Bell.
First; he has already mentioned retirement or holding out the entire year in
hopes to get a new contract. Second; his production might slip as he will do just
enough to generate a lucrative deal while avoiding an injury. It’s more than
likely the Steelers play the game and use the franchise tag on Bell again in
2018 as his frustrations will continue! This situation will be very interesting
as the offseason unfolds.
Carlos
Hyde (SF)
Age: 26
| 2017 Salary: $920,420 | FA Rank #2
A very
intriguing player atop the free agent listing is the quietly talented Carlos
Hyde. Finishing off his rookie contract Hyde finally played all sixteen games
for the first time in his four year career. Carrying the ball 240 times Hyde
saw his worst yards per carry since entering the league at 3.9. Under coach
Shanahan, Carlos did see new career highs in rushing touchdowns (8) and
receptions (59), playing for a team that greatly needed some talent infusion
which they received in week 12 when Jimmy G began starting. ADF has never been
a huge fan of Hyde as injuries have always derailed his seasons leaving much to
be desired. Over his career, Hyde has an average of 164 carries per season
leaving a lot of tread left on his tires. Under the new 49er regime, Hyde might
be able to flourish in a scheme poised to generate offensive punch while not
facing stacked eight & nine man boxes.
There’s no
question Hyde would receive more compensation on the open market rather than
returning to San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan has alluded to moving in another
direction as many teams could be very interested in signing Hyde to a contract
that would be favorable for both parties. Those teams include; Cleveland,
Indianapolis, Houston, Oakland, Washington, NY Giants, Detroit, Tampa Bay. It
might be a great move for Carlos to change his address and get a fresh start on
another team.
Dion
Lewis (NE)
Age: 27
| 2017 Salary: $1,300,000 | FA Rank #3
ADF has
grown to appreciate the talents of Dion Lewis these last two seasons believing
he is more than just a product from the Patriots running back tree. Lewis is a
quick, shifty, speed runner that surprisingly has the ability to run between
tackles with effectiveness. Adding to his running ability is his reliability in
the pass game rarely dropping passes with above average hands. For the first
time in his career Lewis played the full slate of a sixteen game season putting
up career numbers for Belichick and the Pats. As the primary back in 2017,
Lewis was able to generate over 1100 total yards and 9 touchdowns while only
touching the ball 212 times, impressive! The talent level of any New England
running back isn’t the question, but rather the appropriate usage Belichick
seems to understand, exploiting their talents to peak production.
For the
production, Lewis is an absolute bargain for any team looking for a versatile
running back to add to their roster. It’s very rare Belichick will over spend
on any player especially at the running back position. Lewis should have a
decent market similar to the one Shane Vereen received a few years back from
the NY Giants. Dion is a perfect change of pace and third down back that can be
relied upon in a limited every down back role for a team with a solid passing
game. His injury history will be a concern but should generate larger money on
the open market.
Isaiah
Crowell (CLE)
Age:
25 | 2017 Salary: $2,746,000 | FA Rank # 4
ADF has
never sung the praises of the power back from Alabama State. However, Crowell
does possess talents that could be transformed provided he plays for a
different squad. Having faced eight, nine, and sometimes ten man boxes, Isaiah
has performed very well given his circumstances. With nothing to brag about as
a supporting cast in Cleveland, Crowell has basically done it on his own. Isaiah
Crowell has a limited skill-set making him strictly a two down runner with no
threat of being involved in the pass game. It would be a shocker if Isaiah
decided not to test the market and return to the Browns, especially coming off a
0-16 season.
There should
be suitors for Crowell in the offseason as he would solidify a bruising attack
teamed up in a multi-back system. If Isaiah finds himself in a situation where
a team has a viable starting Quarterback on the roster, we could very well see
the best numbers of his career. The Lions and the Giants could be decent
landing spots for Crowell.
Orleans
Darkwa (NYG)
Age: 25
| 2017 Salary: $1,100,000 | FA Rank #5
Darkwa came
on late in 2017 showing ability and force playing on a Giants squad that had virtually
no weapons due to injury. Darkwa is another one of these power backs that can
only suit up on first and second down as his hands aren’t good enough to take
on three down responsibilities. Carrying the ball a career high 171 times for
the Big-Blue, Orleans was beginning to prove he was capable of carrying the
load when called upon. He did possess an impressive 4.4 yards per carry and
finished off the season with an impressive 154 yard performance against the
Redskins. Aside from what he is on tape, Darkwa won’t give you consistent game
breaking ability.
Orleans
should generate some interest on the open market, but his role will again be
placed in a multi-back system to take pressure off a more talented runner. He
could be quite the bargain for any team looking for a pounder. Depending on
what the Giants draft at running back, he could find himself back in New York.
Jerick
McKinnon (MIN)
Age:
25 | 2017 Salary: $691,250 | FA Rank #6
Without
question the Vikings would’ve been in a heap of trouble without the services of
Jerick McKinnon this season. Buried on the depth chart to begin the season, the
Vikings drafted rookie spark-plug Dalvin Cook and signed Latavius Murray to
handle the running duties. Once Cook went down with a season ending ACL injury,
Jerick again came to the forefront and performed admirably. It’s clear,
McKinnon isn’t an every down back, but provides a great change of pace and
receiving option when called upon. Jerick does possess elite breakaway speed
but struggles to run through the tackles and block in pass pro thus limiting
his time on the field.
McKinnon
could easily find his way back on the Vikings roster next season as a slight raise
would be appropriate for the work he’s put in. Realistically, this should be
the final season for Jerick wearing purple as many suitors would be vying for
his services in the offseason.
Alfred
Morris (DAL)
Age: 29
| 2017 Salary: $1,750,000 | FA Rank #7
Since coming
to the Cowboys, Alfred Morris has been under used and undervalued for what he’s
capable of doing. Completing his sixth season in the NFL, Morris still should
have plenty in the tank to regain a feature role on any club that requires a
lead running back. Morris was able to produce a 4.8 yards per carry average
this season playing a relief role once Zeke Elliott was lost to suspension.
Morris has rushed for three 1000 yard seasons in Washington but somehow lost
favour in the nation’s capital having to settle for a smaller contract with the
Cowboys. Alfred again will be looking for a new address in hopes to reclaim a
top role and produce RB 1 numbers.
Teams that
may have interest in Morris would include; Tampa Bay, Detroit, Seattle,
Oakland, and Houston. ADF believes there is still more 1000 yard seasons left
in Morris and would be able to prove it given the opportunity. Alfred carried
the ball 115 times this season producing over 500 yards on the ground. Double
that work load and Morris would undoubtedly generate 1100-1200 yards for any
club. He could very well be a sleeper going into next year provided he gets the
right situation.
Rex
Burkhead (NE)
Age: 27
| 2017 Salary: $3,150,000 | FA Rank #8
Rex Burkhead
came into the 2017 season with a hype train that became unstoppable. As the
season began to take shape the realization of what Rex is, became very clear.
Used as a goal line, situational specialist, Burkhead was able to make plays
and generate points for the Patriots creating more mismatches on that offense. Missing
six games to injury obviously didn’t help his cause as lost production makes
his season view as a complete failure based on salary and expectations. Rex is
a good back that will be able to produce in the passing game for most teams but
will never gain traction as a complete runner. Scoring eight total touchdowns
on just over 500 total yards, the 3.15 million dollars the Patriots gave him
should not be offered again in 2018. If Rex was able to stay on the field his
production would obviously increase showing the value he has. ADF wouldn’t be surprised
if Rex isn’t renewed in New England next year.
Teams will undoubtedly
be in the market for a player with Burkhead’s skill set, but shouldn’t over pay
like the Patriots did to secure his rights. Rex is a good change of pace pass catching
back that could provide support in an offense that likes the screen game or
short passes out of the backfield. Goal line work is something Burkhead is also
capable of. He will have teams interested.
Jeremy
Hill (CIN)
Age:
25 | 2017 Salary: $938,401 | FA Rank #9
Some may
question ADF’s ranking of Jeremy Hill as the ninth best running back on the
open market to this point, think and look again. Hill basically has been run
out of Cincinnati as production slipped and fumbles became his biggest concern.
It impossible to overlook Hill’s production since coming into the NFL back in
2014. This season should be ignored by all, as Marvin Lewis attempted to change
the running back room using Mixon and Bernard as the main-stays limiting Hill
to only 37 carries. From 2014 to 2016 Hill was able to generate a massive 29
touchdowns almost averaging 10 touchdowns rushing a season to start his career.
Generating over 1100 yards in his rookie campaign, Hill’s future looked bright
to which fell off as the Bengals began to unravel. Hill is just entering his
prime and a change of scenery will do the young runner nothing but positives.
Finishing
his rookie contract at fewer than one million dollars for 2017, Hill should be
the possess the most value for free agent running backs on the market. Teams
looking to upgrade their committee backfield or willing to give Hill a chance
at winning the starting job, should be very happy with what he’ll bring to the
club. ADF will be watching his situation with great interest as the offseason
goes on.
Potential Value Running Backs:
Damien
Williams (MIA)
Kenjon
Barner (PHI)
Brandon
Boldin (NE)
Brandon
Oliver (LAC)
Andre
Ellington (HOU)
LeGarrette
Blount (PHI)
Shane Vereen
(NYG)
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