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NFL Week 16 Point Spread Picks

PLACE YOUR BETS!!! ADF started off Week 15 on fire, only to see the Sunday afternoon games fail us with blowouts and missed opportunities. Alas, ADF still resides at the .500 mark with two weeks to play in the regular season, we’ll definitely take that! ADF was able to stack the bank account with all the Sunday morning success to keep the money line in the black. Had to offset a few losses from last week, but nothing we would shed tears about. We look to dominate this week as divisional games are at the for-front of week 16. Follow me I will get you there!  Let’s make some money. Good Luck! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!


Follow on twitter:  @chris_ADF1
Follow on Instagram:  ADF5000


Week 15 Point Spread Record: 8-8 (.500)

Season Point Spread Record:  112-112 (.500)


NFL WEEK 16 – Predictions (Projected odds makers @ DEC.22.2017 – 12:00PM EST)


Saturday Dec.23.2017

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (Favorite)
Westgate -13.5
Caesar’s -13.5
William Hill -13.5
Wynn -13
CG -13
Unibet -12.5
SportSelect -13.5

Starting off the slate of games is the Colts and the Ravens. Baltimore holds their own destiny in the playoff chase, and if they win out right, they will find themselves playing into January. The Ravens aren’t a fantastic team as their schedule has been one of the easiest in the NFL, but they have proven they are a force on defense. Offensively they make chuck plays to get them over the top, and have found their run game behind Alex Collins. The Colts season has been over for a while as they continue to play out the string. There isn’t much to play for as the rumor mill has Head Coach Chuck Pagano on his way out after next week’s contest. The Colts find ways to compete but they fold like paper as the game wears on. This is a massive spread for the Ravens to cover; but playing at home, behind the fantastic running of Alex Collins, and superb defensive play against a weak opponent, I’ll bite! BAL covers the spread @ -13 IND 16 BAL 23 (L)     

Minnesota (Favorite) @ Green Bay
Westgate -9
Caesar’s -8.5
William Hill -9
Wynn -8.5
CG -9
Unibet -7.5
SportSelect -8.5

With the Green Bay loss and Falcons victory last week, it sent the Packers packing for the season. With the loss and nothing left to play for, Green Bay sent Rodgers back to IR to rest up for the 2018 season. The dynamics of this game has definitely changed as the Packers will be extremely shorthanded as Devonte Adams will not suit up for this one as well. The Vikings travel to Lambo field as they remain in must win situations to keep home field advantage alive. Minnesota has done almost everything correct this season amidst the many injuries they have endured. The defense has taken shape and solidified themselves as one of the top units in the NFL. Offensively, Case Keenum has done everything he’s been asked to do with supreme efficiency. This one shouldn’t be must of a contest as the Vikings will roll in and roll out with another W. MIN covers the spread @ -9 MIN 16 GB 0 (W)     


Sunday Dec.24.2017

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (Favorite)
Westgate -10
Caesar’s -10
William Hill -10
Wynn -10
CG -10
Unibet -9.5
SportSelect -9.5

Massive spreads continue to be the trend as we see the first game on tap for Christmas Eve. The Panthers have looked dominate as they continue their quest for the NFC South crown. The schedule makers have gifted Cam and company with a very winnable contest at home for week 16. Newton has been impressive during the last 4 weeks as he looks to have taken on more of a leadership role. However, Cam does this often when the team is winning and looks to be the ultimate team player. A loss or close contest should bring Newton back down to his immature ways, taking away what they are doing right. The Bucs season has been a wrap for quite some time but still had some fight in them last week against the Falcons. No one wants to fall in the gutter and die a slow death, so I expect the Bucs to try and keep it close early on. The Panthers will be far too much for Tampa to handle on the road. Yet another massive spread covered. CAR covers the spread @ -10 CAR 22 TB 19 (L)  

Cleveland @ Chicago (Favorite)
Westgate -6.5
Caesar’s -6.5
William Hill -6.5
Wynn -6.5
CG -6.5
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5

The Browns continue their winless season as they travel to Chicago to face the Bears. The script over the past month for the Bears has been – play great, play terrible, play great, play terrible, we could see this again. Playing at home should give the Bears more motivation to go along with not being the squad that drops a game to a winless team. ADF is supportive of what Trubisky has been doing as his progression has moved in the right direction. Alas, he still requires experience and tutelage to take his game to the next level. Most impressively, Trubisky is going through his progressions in the pocket searching for his 4th and 5th reads at times, very rare for a rookie quarterback. The Browns have tried many things to get this team going and have failed miserably. The lone bright spot for the Browns has been the play of the defense that begins very strong then gets worn down as they receive no assistance from their offense. Playing in Soldier Field the Bears should win this one, but the score will be tighter then the spread suggests, very possible the Browns get their first win. CHI doesn’t cover the spread @ -6.5 CLE 3 CHI 20 (L)  

Detroit (Favorite) @ Cincinnati
Westgate -4.5
Caesar’s -5
William Hill -5
Wynn -5
CG -4
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -5.5

The Lions make their way to Cincinnati to face off in an important contest that could seal the fate of the club. The Lions playoff hopes are still very much alive and will need to be on their A-game otherwise they could drop a very winnable contest. The Detroit offense is led by Matthew Stafford and will die at the hands of Stafford. The Lions possess no run game which amounts to all the pressure square on the quarterback’s shoulders. Defensively Darius Slay has been a revelation and should be able to lock down AJ Green keeping the NFL’s worst offense in check. Not much left to evaluate for the Bengals as they are in offseason mode as Head Coach Marvin Lewis will be dismissed at the conclusion of the season. Nothing left to play for in Cincy. DET covers the spread @ -5 DET 17 CIN 26 (L)   

Miami @ Kansas City (Favorite)
Westgate -10.5
Caesar’s -11
William Hill -10.5
Wynn -10
CG -10.5
Unibet -10.5
SportSelect -10.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have again seemingly found their stride and have recaptured the lead in the AFC West. Going back to a formula that worked well at the beginning of the season - running the ball effectively with rookie star Kareem Hunt. Andy Reid should be applauded for giving up the play calling duties and focusing on correcting the defensive tribulations, which has looked better of late. The Dolphins are traveling to Arrowhead in December which is never a good thing for a team from South Florida. The Fins are coming off a divisional loss to the Bills that ended their playoff aspirations and ADF really questions the motivation Jay Cutler will have. The Chiefs will pound the Fins with the run game and should close them out with defensive play. This will be a cake walk in KC.
KC covers the spread @ -10 MIA 13 KC 29 (W)

Buffalo @ New England (Favorite)
Westgate -12.5
Caesar’s -12
William Hill -12.5
Wynn -12
CG -12.5
Unibet -11.5
SportSelect -12.5

To the elation of Bills fans, they have important games in December. Coach McDermott preached the win now and build for the future mentality, which has come to pass in 2017. The Bills walk into Gillette Stadium with everything to play for as their playoff lives hang in the balance. Tyrod Taylor looked very good last week behind a fantastic game plan and great support from LeSean McCoy. The Bills will have to be perfect on Sunday as any mistakes will definitely cost them the game. The Patriots coming off a referee assisted contest against the Steelers last week lifting them again to the home field advantage leader in the AFC. This game is very important for the Patriots as they understand that traveling for the playoffs is a big disadvantage for them. Tom Brady should be on point as he loves facing off against the Bills. I fully expect a game plan that will exploit the Bills Line Backers, while finding holes in the defensive line for the New England backs to gallop through. That being said, the Bills should be prepared for this content and should give the Pats a run for their money. Even if the Bills lose it won’t be a blowout.
NE doesn’t cover the spread @ -12.5 BUF 16 NE 37 (L)

Atlanta @ New Orleans (Favorite)
Westgate -5.5
Caesar’s -5.5
William Hill -5.5
Wynn -5
CG -5.5
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -5.5

One of the best games on the morning slate goes to the Falcons and the Saints. These teams met just two weeks ago, where Brees threw an errant pass over the middle in double coverage to see it picked off in the endzone to end the game. This time this contest will be held in New Orleans and Vegas has the Saints as a two field goal favorite. The Falcons come into this one knowing that if they run the table they will clinch a playoff spot and the motivation will be on extreme high. Atlanta will run the ball a lot in this one to set up the play action in hopes to get Julio free early and often. The Saints didn’t look as decisive as they wanted in their win against the Jets last week. Mistakes again filled the game as they had many big plays called back on replay overturns and costly turnovers. They will have to be on their A-game in this one if they want to keep pace with the Panthers for the NFC South crown. This game should be tight as both teams won’t expose themselves to dangerous plays. NWO doesn’t cover the spread @ -6.5 ATL 13 NWO 23 (L)  

LA Chargers (Favorite) @ NY Jets
Westgate -6.5
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -7
CG -7
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5

The Chargers travel again to the state of New York, this time to face the Jets. Another massively important contest for LA as they hope to keep their playoff hopes alive. The AFC West division title shouldn’t be in reach as the Chiefs should close out the season with two wins. The Chargers will try and get back on track with running the ball effectively setting up the pass game. The Jets played pretty well early on last week in New Orleans as they gave the Saints a run for their money. This week they will try and rattle Philip Rivers in making similar mistakes as he did last week. Rivers has never been able to rise to the occasion in big games with the teams aspirations on the line. I fully expect the Chargers to win this contest, but with cross country travel and a team willing to play spoiler, it should be close.
LAC doesn’t cover the spread @ -7 LAC 14 NYJ 7 (L)

LA Rams (Favorite) @ Tennessee
Westgate -6.5
Caesar’s -6.5
William Hill -6.5
Wynn -6.5
CG -6.5
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5

The LA Rams travel to Tennessee to take on the biggest pretender in the NFL. The Titans have all but sealed their fate with the last second loss in San Francisco last week. Finishing off the season with the Rams and the Jags, the writing is on the wall for the Titans to miss out on the 2017 playoffs. The Rams come to town on the strength of an impressive blowout win in Seattle adjusting the power ranking in the NFC West. Everything the Rams do ADF is a fan of. Preaching the love for this team all season hasn’t disappointed, as Coach McVay has this squad firing on all cylinders and we fully expect that to continue on Sunday. Todd Gurley will again make his case known for his bid for league MVP as he will find holes all day through the leaky Titans defense. This one should be an easy win and the Rams will keep rolling. LAR covers the spread @ -6.5 LAR 27 TEN 23 (L)   

Denver @ Washington (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3.5
William Hill -3.5
Wynn -3.5
CG -3.5
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5

A potential snooze fest awaits us for this contest as the Broncs travel to Washington to face the Skins. Both teams have nothing to play for other than pride and jobs as the 2017 season is already closed on these two clubs. Really the only aspect of this game that has relevance will be the play of Kirk Cousins. He is literally playing for money as he will try and impress upon other teams to sign him to a long term big money deal in the offseason. Denver hasn’t said who the starter will be as of yet at quarterback, but either way, it will be difficult to envision any motivation coming from their side.
WAS covers the spread @ -3.5 DEN 11 WAS 27 (W)

Jacksonville (Favorite) @ San Francisco
Westgate -4.5
Caesar’s -4
William Hill -4.5
Wynn -4.5
CG -4.5
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -4.5

The extremely hot Jacksonville Jaguars travel cross country to face off against the much improved Jimmy G - San Fran 49ers. Game’s like these are important for the Jags as they want to prove to the NFL that they are indeed for real. Any let down in a match like this will again place doubt in the minds of the football world that the Jags aren’t for real. Jimmy Garoppolo looks to be a super star on the rise in a perfect system geared to exploit his talents and get the 49ers back on the winning track. The interesting aspect of this contest should be how the Jacksonville defense will game plan against the young quarterback. Defensively San Fran isn’t a sound unit and should struggle to stop Leonard Fournette and the newly high octane offense of the Jags. ADF is now a believer in what the Jags bring to the table and should be an easy win for them. JAX covers the spread @ -4.5 JAX 33 SF 44 (L)    

NY Giants @ Arizona (Favorite)
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -4
William Hill -4
Wynn -4
CG -4
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5

Another match that will consist of playing for jobs in 2018 as this will likely be a snooze fest as well. The Cardinals don’t have much left in the tank as they are going back to journeymen Drew Stanton at quarterback. The Giants did look reinvigorated last week against the Eagles but had a letdown and ended up losing the game. Eli Manning is unfortunately in prove it mode to see if he can save his job or audition for another team next season. The Giants should be able to get this win.
ARZ doesn’t cover the spread @ -4 NYG 0 ARZ 23 (L)

Seattle @ Dallas (Favorite)
Westgate -5
Caesar’s -5
William Hill -5
Wynn -5
CG -4.5
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -5.5

The broken Seahawks travel to Dallas to face off against the Cowboys Sunday afternoon. This game could be something of a moot point as the Saints-Falcons game could dictate the relevance of this contest. Either way, the Cowboys get a massive boost as their star running back Zeke Elliott returns from suspension and looks to get the rock a ton. Elliott will once again prove he is extremely important to the Dallas offense as they should be able to find their stride early against the Hawks injured defense. Russell Wilson will be on point in this one, to shake off the stink from last week’s massive blowout loss to the Rams. Wilson has masked the deficiencies of this Seattle club for most of the season and it all has come back to reality of what this team really is. Far too many injuries for any team to handle - backed with a sub-par run game and terrible offensive line, the Hawks will be looking forward to the offseason to re-tool. If this game in fact does possess playoff implications, the Cowboys should be able to dispose of the Hawks on the back of Elliott, but this one is closer then Vegas suggests.
DAL doesn’t cover the spread @ -5 SEA 21 DAL 12 (W)


Monday Dec.25.2017
Pittsburgh (Favorite) @ Houston
Westgate -9
Caesar’s -9.5
William Hill -9.5
Wynn -9.5
CG -10
Unibet -9.5
SportSelect -8.5

Merry Christmas as the NFL gives us two games to end Week 16 as we sit down with our families and have some turkey. The Steelers will be extremely angry with the outcome of last week’s contest against the Patriots as this game now becomes important for home field advantage. Pittsburgh will be without star receiver Antonio Brown, but won’t necessarily need him as Bell and JuJu should be able to make up for what they will lose in Browns absence. The Texans had so much promise in a season that saw all their star talent find the medical room with long term injuries. This shouldn’t be much of a contest even though the Steelers are prone to play to the level of their opponent; home field advantage will get them extremely motivated in this one. Expect a blowout from Ben and company. PIT covers the spread @ -9 PIT 34 HOU 6 (W)       

Oakland @ Philadelphia (Favorite)
Westgate -9
Caesar’s -9
William Hill -9
Wynn -9
CG -9
Unibet -9.5
SportSelect -8.5

To finish off Christmas Day, the Eagles host the Raiders in a game that also sees home field as the main motivator. The Raiders have been a complete disappointment this season on both sides of the ball and have stamped their ticket to the offseason on the fumble touch-back from last week’s Derek Carr’s missed opportunity. The Eagles got a scare last week as the Giants came out strong taking the lead early, but the Philly brass somehow calmed Nick Foles down to lead a fantastic comeback. The last time Nick Foles played the Raiders, he broke the NFL record for the most touchdown passes in a single game with seven. Building confidence in Foles to lead this once league favorite (with Wentz), is very important and ADF fully expects the Eagles to come out strong in this one. It will be a Merry Christmas for the Eagles. PHI covers the spread @ -9 OAK 10 PHI 19 (W) 

WEEK 16 Record: 6-10 (.375)      



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