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NFL Week 4 Point Spread Picks

PLACE YOUR BETS!!! Week 3 featured some of the most exciting football not seen in quite some time. The entertaining games just kept coming after the brilliant Thursday Night showdown between the Rams and the 49ers which kicked it all off. Unfortunately this entertainment came at a cost to most spread picks as week 3 was dominated by the under-dog! ADF took a rare shot to the chin in week 3 correctly advising on 5 winners. We will overcome! Let’s make some money. Good Luck!

Follow on twitter:  @chris_ADF1

Week 3 Record: 5-11 (.313)

Season Record:  21-26 (.447)


NFL WEEK 4 – Predictions (Projected odds makers @ Sep.28.2017 – 12:00PM EST)

Thursday Sept.28.2017

Chicago @ Green Bay (Favorite)
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -7
William Hill -7
Wynn -7.5
CG -7
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -7.5

The Packers deceived me last week with a beauty of a home date with the Bengals and only won by 3. Again I’m forced to make the tough choice of a touchdown spread at home vs a Bears team that in actuality hasn’t looked terrible like most thought they would. All signs point to the Packers steam rolling the Bears on a short week, I’ll go with the improved Packer defense here.
GB covers the spread @ -7 CHI 14 GB 35 (W)


Sunday Oct.1.2017

New Orleans (Favorite) @ Miami (London)
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
CG -3
Unibet -2.5
SportSelect -2.5

Another game across the pond in London kicks off football on Sunday. This game should be filled with excitement and points as the Saints look to continue their winning ways. The Dolphins look to wash off the stink from last week’s debacle in New York. As London games usually go there is no definite home team advantage. I am a believer in the Saints and Drew Brees to get the job done on most Sundays! That being said I do like what the Dolphins offence could bring but it will rest on the shoulders of Jay Cutler. The Saints should have too much in this one for the Dolphins to handle. NWO covers the spread @ -3 NWO 20 MIA 0 (W)  

Buffalo @ Atlanta (Favorite)
Westgate -8
Caesar’s -8
William Hill -8
Wynn -8.5
CG -8
Unibet -7.5
SportSelect -8.5

These Bills have impressed me on the defensive side of the ball this year. Going back to a 4-3 base defense has no doubt taken advantage of the skill-set of most of the players on that side of the ball. There is no question the Falcons at home look like an unstoppable force on offence and the Bills should be in tough stopping them. That being said, Shady should find lots of room to gallop vs a defense that is prone to give up big plays. The Falcons should win this but the Bills will keep them honest. Don’t be shocked if the Bills steal one here either.
ATL doesn’t cover the spread @ -8 BUF 23 ATL 17 (W)

Pittsburgh (Favorite) @ Baltimore
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
CG -3
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5

The Steelers yet again played to the strength of their opponent this time losing in OT vs a Bears team no one expects much from this year. The Ravens looked absolutely terrible vs the Jaguars in London but look to bounce back at home in a rival game with the Steelers. LeVeon Bell hasn’t looked the part which was expected after the lengthy hold-out from camp. His football legs should be getting warmer to which his play should improve. Ben mentioned retirement in the off-season which makes me think he is already checked out, I don’t like what I see. The Ravens always get up to play a division foe and these games are always good battles. I’ll take the home team in this one. PIT doesn’t cover the spread @ -3.5 PIT 26 BAL 9 (L)    

Cincinnati (Favorite) @ Cleveland
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
CG -3
Unibet -4.5
SportSelect -3.5

The Bengals sure looked like an improved squad against the might Packers at Lambo. The end result was a gut punch that could resonate for the entire season. Cleveland has shown signs of decent play and could give Cincinnati a little bit of a run. In the end the Bengals should run away with this one easily with minimal travel. CIN covers the spread @ -3 CIN 31 CLE 7 (W)

LA Rams @ Dallas (Favorite)
Westgate -6.5
Caesar’s -6.5
William Hill -6.5
Wynn -6
CG -6.5
Unibet -7.5
SportSelect -7.5

I have mentioned before how impressed I am with the Rams and head coach McVay, transforming them into something to talk about. Goff has progressed every game to which has opened the door for Gurley to have a bounce back year. The defense has taken a step backward but I believe they will get on track. The Cowboys impressed me with their second half play vs the Cardinals last Monday Night! This is a big test to see where the Rams are in regards to higher caliber teams. Taking travel into account I think the Cowboys should be able to win, looking forward to see this one.  
DAL covers the spread @ -6.5 LAR 35 DAL 30 (L)    

Tennessee (Favorite) @ Houston
Westgate -1.5
Caesar’s -2.5
William Hill -1.5
Wynn -1.5
CG -1.5
Unibet -1.5
SportSelect -1.5

The Titans impressed me with their great play over the Seahawks taking into account the injuries they have, impressive! Demarco Murray finally back to himself burning the Hawks defense for a massive TD run. He is the train that chugs this offence and I believe he will be back to full this week. Houston has looked great under rookie spark-plug Watson running the show. His progression has been fantastic thus far as he almost took down the mighty Patriots last week. This game should be decided by a field goal and I have to go with the home team here. 
TEN doesn’t cover the spread @ -1.5 TEN 14 HOU 57 (W)  

Detroit @ Minnesota
Westgate N/A
Caesar’s N/A
William Hill N/A
Wynn N/A
CG N/A
Unibet N/A
SportSelect N/A

Yet again the odds makers haven’t put a spread on a Vikings game as they wait for health news on Sam Bradford. The Vikings looked unreal last week with back up QB Keenum running the show. Detroit has looked very good so far and I believe this will be a good game to watch. No spread but for record purposes I will take the Lions. DET wins the game DET 14 MIN 7 (W)

Carolina @ New England (Favorite)
Westgate -9
Caesar’s -9
William Hill -9
Wynn -9.5
CG -9
Unibet -9.5
SportSelect -8.5

The Patriots were forced to play to down to the wire last week finding a way to beat the Texans after an impressive showing. This week however they are playing a hobbled Cam Newton and a gimpy Kelvin Benjamin. Travel will not bode well for the Panthers here and I expect the Pats to roll in this one. NE covers the spread @ -9 CAR 33 NE 30 (L)

Jacksonville (Favorite) @ NY Jets
Westgate -3.5
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3.5
CG -3
Unibet -3.5
SportSelect -3.5

The Jags looked dominate in their destruction of the Ravens in their second home in London. That defense impressed me with sound play and scheme. Offensively Hurns has answered the bell in taking over the #1 WR duties. I’m still not a huge fan of Bortles but they are playing the Jets. The Jets surprised the world in taking down a Dolphins team expected to perform a lot better then what we saw. I wouldn’t expect that type of showing from the Jets week in week out, but yet again a Florida team travel’s a long distance to face the Jets. I’ll play favorite here, Jags should do it. 
JAX covers the spread @ -3 JAX 20 NYJ 23 (L)  

San Francisco @ Arizona (Favorite)
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -6.5
William Hill -7
Wynn -7
CG -7
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -7.5

Kyle Shanahan deserves a lot of credit for his adjustments and play-calling from last Thursday Night’s super exciting game vs the Rams. I don’t expect the 49ers to play that way consistently especially since Hyde is now hobbled. The Cardinals had good moments last week but weren’t able to apply the killer instinct allowing the Cowboys to take over in the second half. They should be playing with enough anger to help get the win against the 49ers at home. ARZ covers the spread @ -7 
SF 15 ARZ 18 (L)

Philadelphia @ LA Chargers (Favorite)
Westgate -1.5
Caesar’s -2
William Hill -1.5
Wynn -1
CG -1
Unibet -1.5
SportSelect -0.5

The injury report has Fletcher Cox as week to week and shouldn’t suit up for this one. That a massive loss for a defense that relies on him to stop the run. The Eagles offence will have to figure out how to use their new toys consistently to put fear into their opponent’s hearts, something we haven’t seen yet. The Chargers keep finding new ways to lose games which should turn new Head Coach Anthony Lynn’s hair grey, (if he had hair). The bright spot for the Chargers is they won’t have to face Cox jamming up the middle giving Gordon more room to gallop. LA is having a difficult time getting into the end zone via the pass game and should continue to force-feed Keenan Allen hoping to find pay-dirt. Travel is not on the Eagles side but I believe they will squeak this one out. 
LAC doesn’t cover the spread @ -1.5 PHI 26 LAC 24 (W)

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay (Favorite)
Westgate -3
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -3
Wynn -3
CG -3
Unibet -2.5
SportSelect -3.5

I really couldn’t believe my eyes when watching Jameis Winston chucking up ducks all over the field last week. He was missing reads, had happy feet and looked completely out of sync. The Bucs possess no real run threat which makes it difficult for Winston to find his groove. That being said the Giants seemed to get back on track somewhat offensively last week but travel will not be their friend. This one could go either way. TB covers the spread @ -3 NYG 23 TB 25 (L)

Oakland @ Denver (Favorite)
Westgate -2.5
Caesar’s -3
William Hill -2.5
Wynn -2.5
CG -3
Unibet -2.5
SportSelect -2.5

100% The Raiders looked horrific on Sunday Night Football vs the Redskins. I fully expect a bounce back as it seemed the bright lights of a prime-time game made them a deer in the headlights. They should have a better showing this week with the talent they have. The Broncos were stunned by an upstart Bills defense that proved they belong in the top 5 conversation early so far. Denver should get back to basics on offence and remind Siemian to not throw up random darts to the opposing team. Mile High is a very difficult place to play and I expect Denver to come out on top. 
DEN covers the spread @ -2.5 OAK 10 DEN 16 (W)

Indianapolis @ Seattle (Favorite)
Westgate -13
Caesar’s -13
William Hill -13
Wynn -13
CG -13
Unibet -13.5
SportSelect -13.5

I’m really surprised at this spread even though the Colts travel to the 12th man. Seattle did show signs of improvement offensively last week but that defense looks like it could be on the tail end of dominance, yet to be confirmed. Brissett has taken over the role and progressed well to keep the opposition honest with the deep pass. Jacoby was dropping dimes to TY Hilton last week (yes it’s the Browns), but, it’s something to note. Seattle should take this one easily but the colts won’t let them burn the house down. SEA doesn’t cover the spread @ -13 IND 18 SEA 46 (L)   

Monday Oct.2.2017

Washington @ Kansas City (Favorite)
Westgate -7
Caesar’s -6.5
William Hill -6.5
Wynn -7
CG -7
Unibet -6.5
SportSelect -6.5


The Redskins impressed me with their front seven looking very dominate vs one of the best OL’s in the NFL (Raiders). With that, Chris Thompson has been a revelation for that Skins offence and they should continue to get him as much as he can handle. Thompson might come back down to earth this week vs a Chiefs team that is firing on all cylinders. What can I say, the Chiefs are MIGHTY! Any Reid is a master at building a perfect product for the regular season. Offensively they are difficult to stop (the trio – Hunt, Hill, Kelce), while the defense gives offences fits. Arrowhead is one tough place especially on Monday Night! We should be in for a good contest. I’ll gamble on this one. 
KC doesn’t cover the spread @ -7 WAS 20 KC 29 (L)


Week 4 Record 8-8 (.500) 



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