As the fantasy draft season quickly approaches, many have
their techniques on how they attack their draft. It’s important to note that a
championship team can be made in many ways but having one solid platform to
draft your squad is invaluable. This is where I come in (wink, wink), I will
help even the average fantasy manger excel at running their team all the way to
the promise land! Let’s face it; it’s all about winning championships!!! And
boy do I like to win!!!
Knowing the Players:
Far too often I see many individuals trying to ‘wing it’,
when it comes to running a fantasy team. Let me remove this thought process
from your mind right away. Like everything in life, do it right or don’t do it
at all, (no disrespect intended). My brand represents the hard core nature of
eating, sleeping, breathing football. Though this might not be for everyone
(which is fine), still understand you must do your research before you enter a
league to be competitive. Knowing the stud players will get you so far, like
maybe round 5 of a 15 round draft! Obviously if you’re playing fantasy football
you have a keen interest in the game, so take advantage of that.
Bare minimum - know all the starters and first backups on
every team, (offensive players). This isn’t a huge task; for example - most
teams employ 3 wide-out sets these days, so knowing the top 2 or 3 receivers
per team is a massive step in the right direction, for me I get to know them
all (remember I’m hard core). Don’t be the manager that bows out in round 7 or
8 posting comments on the draft board, “I don’t even know these players”. That
alone tells experienced managers you already lost. Know the players!
Let me break it down for you this way; in a 15 round draft
of a 12 manager league, that’s a total of 180 players. You need to know more
than that! See the minimums;
Quarterbacks (QB) – know all 32 starting QBs and top 5
backups! Injuries happen people, be prepared.
Running Backs (RB) – take into account split carries vs starting
RB. Know a minimum of 64 RBs equaling 2 per team.
Wide Receivers (WR) – I will instruct that knowing the top 3
WRs per team and their role is important. Know a minimum of 96 WRs equaling 3
per team.
Tight Ends (TE) – this position is difficult to judge most
years as some teams employ multi TE sets. Know a minimum of all 32 starting
TEs.
Kicker (K) – though this position is over looked as
important, some weeks your kicker can take you over the top. It’s not a
necessity to know every kicker but rather know what teams have a good offence
to put your kicker in scoring position regularly! Know a minimum of 15 kickers.
Defense (Def) – Team defense is an important aspect of
fantasy football. Though some years it can be hit and miss, pay attention to what
teams have done to improve and what teams will piggyback success the previous
season to stay dominant. The waiver wire is also your best friend when it comes
to finding a defense. Know a minimum of 15 defences.
Based on these totals you should have a minimum knowledge of
approximately 260 players. This will provide you with an edge of an extra 80
players for a 12 team 15 round league draft. Plenty of room to navigate value
in the bottom rounds of the draft!
Knowing the Teams:
Most everyone playing fantasy football has a team the route
for, a favorite team. Even then, I know many fans that don’t know their entire
roster by week 1, for shame! The turnover for NFL teams is so large I do
understand how fans can miss certain guys being added to the roster, but pay
attention. NFL free agency is your first opportunity to see what your team has
added or lost. Then follow the NFL draft. Don’t lose touch during the
offseason, stay plugged in at least once a week, know what’s happening! Also,
let’s not forget about coaching changes. This is very important as it will give
you understanding to how teams will run their offence in the upcoming year. A
few examples;
1.
Most will know - Brandon Marshall signed as a
free agent with the New York Giants, but how will this affect the other fantasy
players on this team? Guys like Beckham Jr. will still see his targets but
could his redzone be affected? How will this affect young up and comer Sterling
Shepard? Loss of targets = loss in production? How will Eli hold up with an
offensive line that still is sub-par and a running game with a massive question
mark? Will teams still focus on the Giants pass game until they prove they can
run with Perkins?
2.
Most will not know – the Buffalo Bills hired a
new OC (offensive coordinator), this offseason, how will this affect Shady
(LeSean McCoy) and his production? OC Rick Dennison employs a zone run scheme
that is extremely favorable for the shifty movements and great vision of Shady.
Dennison also relays a lot on passes to his backs to open the deeper pass game
to go along with a lot of play action. Barring another injury, could Sammy
Watkins break out? How about in PPR (point per reception) fantasy league
formats, rookie stud Zay Jones could see a great deal of targets come his way.
Zay was responsible for 399 receptions in his 4 year college career hauling in
a whopping 158 catches in his senior campaign, don’t sleep on Zay!
3.
Most will know – Kyle Shanahan is now the new HC
(Head Coach) of the 49ers. But in year one of a massive rebuild, is there any
player that is worth owning. Usually the rule of thumb is the best player on
the worst team has less value than the worst player on the best team (only with
fantasy value of course). Situations like these you may want to take a flyer on
rookie stud in the making RB Joseph Williams. He may not be a secret come week
3 of the preseason as he may out right out rank Carlos Hyde this offseason.
Still to keep in mind, how effective will the 49er run game be with subpar QB
paly, food for thought!
4.
Most will not know – the strength of each team’s
offensive line. This will give you great insight as to how strong the offence
will perform. Most know how strong the Cowboys and Raiders OL’s are, but is there
awareness of the strength housed by the Titans, Bills, Dolphins, and the Saints
OL’s? The biggest items to note that both the Cowboys and Raiders have great
lines that perfect its craft in both the run and the pass, whereas the Titans
and Bills rank extremely close in those categories as well. Down the latter the
Dolphins OL is better in the run game where the Saints OL dominates in pass
protection. Understanding these strengths should give you an edge to get the
most production out of your players.
Evaluate what each team has done
and will do by final roster cut down day. Be advised it’s a greater task to
evaluate teams on cut down day alone, stay plugged in, even if it’s only from a
far.
Understanding Draft
Value:
This practice is two fold, understanding draft value and
finding the value in the draft. Firstly, when fantasy leagues open up for
renewal they will provide everyone with their first version of player draft
rankings. Most hard core fantasy owners know that the rankings get revised as
training camp and preseason move forward. However revisions made to the player
rankings may surprise you (if you don’t know already), keep reading!
I know I’m not taking a great leap to say that all fantasy
football sites have an option called ‘Mock Draft’, this is quite known. The
mock draft is a great way to practice drafting your team in all spots, figuring
out every scenario, to hopefully give you an advantage. Here is the main issue
with the mock drafts and player rankings. As mock drafts are complete each site
analyze data and push a patch to update the player rankings based on mock draft
selections. Sounds good in theory right, however if you’re like me and spend
most of your summer in the mock drafts, for sure have seen the flaw. Certain
individuals will hijack and completely disrupt mock drafts just for the heck of
it. This not only is extremely frustrating but not conducive to having a good
evaluation of where player ADP (Average Draft Position) should be.
Understanding where to draft certain players is important
but the name of the game is winning the championship. Don’t be afraid to draft
players ahead of their ADP (Average Draft Position) but keep it within reason.
If by round 3 you have 1 RB and 1 WR on your roster and your pick is between 25
and 30 taking an elite QB like Tom Brady (2017 ADP #34) is a safe reach in my
opinion. Build the best team not based on site ADP, but create your own ADP
value where you will take a player then adapt during the draft. Filling your
starting lineup with stud point producers before filling your bench will give
you a great advantage. You can always find value later in the draft; just make
sure you pick quality over quantity in the first 5 rounds.
Mock Draft, Mock
Draft, Mock Draft:
THE MOCK DRAFT is a great tool to improve your ability to
strategically learn and stay calm when the real draft is in progress. Even if
you only do 12 mock drafts representing the 12 draft-able positions in your
league, you will gain an advantage to learn how to adapt when another manager
steals your player. Like I mentioned individuals will invade this tool and
frustrate you but stay patience, for every mock that fails, you will have
plenty that will succeed.
The key to mock drafts is to establish your ADP values!!!
Place a value on players and see how far they may fall, instantly creating a
value all to yourself. Of course the studs will always go early that’s the name
of the game, but finding the value from rounds 4-15 will set your team apart.
Learn to adapt and have a short memory if one of your value players gets
picked, have a backup plan because nothing will go as you think.
My advice for 12 team leagues; 5 good mock drafts per draft
position = 60 mock drafts minimum!!! Let the mocks begin!
The Season:
Drafting is only a small aspect of forming a championship
squad. Barring injury to the stud players on your roster, you should be looking
to improve on a weekly basis. No matter how good you feel about your draft
certain players will disappoint, so have your contingency plan ready.
Being active on the waiver wire is extremely important, as
much if not more than the draft. Snagging performing players off the wire will
help you during the lulls of star slumps and bye weeks. The key to the waiver
is, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger a week or two before the player becomes
fantasy relevant. As you watch live games on Sunday you will start to see
trends of players getting an opportunity to produce, watch carefully because
once they become a house hold name everyone in the league will put in a waiver
claim.
It’s important to note, normally by week 3 you can tell the
usage of some players on your bench and what productivity they will provide.
Rule of thumb is ‘DON’T WAIT TO CUT YOUR LOSSES’! I’ve seen far too often
managers wait and hold players for too long; not understanding that any roster
spot taken up by a minimal performing player is a disaster for your team that
you will come to regret. Finding talent from the waiver gives you the ability
for extra trade bait to other managers. When it comes to the waiver always
remember – be aware, don’t hesitate, calculate your moves!
Finding the weakness on another team is the best way to make
trades and improve your roster. Finding trades of this magnitude will help
build your roster and help pair up players to package for other stud stars. On
the other hand don’t make trades just for the sake of making a trade. The goal
is to improve your team at the same time improving the other team, unless you
get lucky and pull the wool over their eyes. Don’t get caught up thinking the
other team will have the advantage if a trade is made and is fair in value. It’s
about winning and what will put your team in the beat position to win. Furthermore,
piggybacking one trade and organizing another, perhaps using your newly
acquired trade asset along with a prime waiver addition, can set you up to have
a dominant starting lineup.
One item of caution; holding too many players of great
production can also work against you. For example; I drafted Tom Brady as my
starting QB last year (2016) and managed to snag Derek Carr in the latter
rounds. I did this as to protect myself as Brady was serving his 4 game
suspension. Suffice it to say the move worked out beautifully. My team held a
record or 3-1 after week 4 and was primed to keep winning with Brady coming
back. After a few more weeks, Carr was producing at almost the same level as
Brady making me sick to my stomach that those points were being wasted on my
bench. I realize some managers like to have that backup plan ready if say Brady
was to get hurt, don’t be fooled. In my case I waited until Brady passed his
bye week so I could still expel all the value out of Carr, then with no
hesitation, I sent Carr packing in a trade that brought over an above average
RB and star WR. The trade improved the other team which was QB starving, but
lifted my team into another atmosphere.
So after all the maneuvering, acquiring, the most important
thing is what?!?! Making the correct decisions and putting out the best
starting lineup possible. Let’s face it, fantasy football has a luck aspect to
it where one player on any given Sunday can go off and end your week without warning.
As rare of an occurrence as this is, it happens. I’m ok to take a loss as long
as my bench didn’t outscore my starting lineup. Make your choices with
information. Check weather forecasts, research what defences your players are
going against, is your player better in a dome or outdoors, what defensive matchups
will your players endure, can you bench said player based on skill, how has the
offence preformed vs that opponent, etc. One aspect to pay attention to is
what’s happening in their personal life. If your player just had a baby or a
close family member death, more often than not they are a must start! Sounds
silly but very true, players will perform greater in personal times of joy and
hardship.
Through my fantasy career I have hoisted my fair share of
championships trophies! By all means adopt my philosophy and dedication and cave
out a place in Fantasy Football history for yourself! Good luck and enjoy the
upcoming season!
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